Forecasting Football: 2015-10-02–2015-10-06
J. James Reade
25th September 2015
Introduction
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## as.Date, as.Date.numericThis is a collection of forecasts for this weekend’s matches. We use a statistical model estimated on a large dataset of historic football matches, and we compare these forecasts to bookmaker prices. This will be the second week of multi-national forecasts, but an absence of available hours in the day means I haven’t been able to properly evaluate forecasts from last week, nor develop further the forecast model to address the seemingly strong home bias in my forecasts.
English Premier League
French Ligue 1
German Bundesliga
Italian Serie A
Spain
Scottish Premier League
Home/Away Bankers
In last week’s file we set up two rules for determining home/away bankers. If a home win probability was 30% more than the away win probability, or if the away win probability was 20% more than the home probability, that should be backed. We now list the matches that satisfy these two criteria this week:
kable(forecast.matches[c(forecast.matches$Ph-forecast.matches$Pa)>0.3 | c(forecast.matches$Pa-forecast.matches$Ph)>0.2,c("team1","team2","division","date","Ph","Pa")])| team1 | team2 | division | date | Ph | Pa | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | aberdeen | st johnstone | Scottish Premiership | 2015-10-03 | 0.5344767 | 0.2130402 |
| 3 | aberystwyth | connah’s q | Welsh Premier | 2015-10-03 | 0.5615001 | 0.1953174 |
| 9 | airdrieonians | stranraer | Scottish League One | 2015-10-03 | 0.5459697 | 0.2053853 |
| 11 | anderlecht | mechelen | Belgian Pro-League | 2015-10-04 | 0.6229010 | 0.1583642 |
| 16 | asteras t. | platanias | Greek League | 2015-10-05 | 0.5274897 | 0.2177819 |
| NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 21 | ayr | cowdenbeath | Scottish League One | 2015-10-03 | 0.5948915 | 0.1746831 |
| 22 | bala town | aberystwyth | Welsh Premier | 2015-10-06 | 0.5303451 | 0.2158360 |
| 24 | bate borisov | granit mikashev | Belarus League | 2015-10-04 | 0.5670876 | 0.1917703 |
| 26 | beroe stara | loko. plovdiv | Bulgarian A-PFG | 2015-10-02 | 0.6024372 | 0.1702014 |
| 27 | berwick | east stirling | Scottish League Two | 2015-10-03 | 0.5479578 | 0.2040790 |
| 30 | b leverkusen | augsburg | German Bundesliga | 2015-10-04 | 0.5881897 | 0.1787181 |
| 31 | b munich | b dortmund | German Bundesliga | 2015-10-04 | 0.6113477 | 0.1649912 |
| 37 | braga | arouca | Portuguese Liga | 2015-10-04 | 0.5868485 | 0.1795319 |
| 40 | brondby | esbjerg | Danish SAS Ligaen | 2015-10-04 | 0.5495675 | 0.2030251 |
| 43 | carmarthen | the new saints | Welsh Premier | 2015-10-06 | 0.2129081 | 0.5346728 |
| 45 | celta vigo | getafe | Spanish La Liga | 2015-10-02 | 0.6584895 | 0.1388183 |
| 49 | chelsea | southampton | English Premier League | 2015-10-03 | 0.5418210 | 0.2081282 |
| 53 | coventry | shrewsbury | English League One | 2015-10-03 | 0.5290789 | 0.2166975 |
| 54 | c palace | west brom | English Premier League | 2015-10-03 | 0.5312854 | 0.2151976 |
| 58 | derby | brentford | English Championship | 2015-10-03 | 0.5455432 | 0.2056663 |
| 59 | dinamo minsk | dinamo brest | Belarus League | 2015-10-05 | 0.6408242 | 0.1483611 |
| 62 | dnipro | oleksandria | Ukrainian Premier | 2015-10-04 | 0.6665501 | 0.1345641 |
| 66 | dunfermline | albion | Scottish League One | 2015-10-03 | 0.5944311 | 0.1749587 |
| 67 | east fife | stirling | Scottish League Two | 2015-10-03 | 0.5881121 | 0.1787651 |
| 70 | eskisehirspor | besiktas | Turkish Super Lig | 2015-10-04 | 0.2587089 | 0.4710624 |
| 74 | fc copenhagen | viborg | Danish SAS Ligaen | 2015-10-04 | 0.6787914 | 0.1282196 |
| 76 | fc zurich | basel | Swiss Super League | 2015-10-04 | 0.2399916 | 0.4960389 |
| 77 | fenerbahce | akhisar b | Turkish Super Lig | 2015-10-04 | 0.6093706 | 0.1661396 |
| 78 | fiorentina | atalanta | Italian Serie A | 2015-10-04 | 0.5816859 | 0.1826840 |
| 82 | genk | standard liege | Belgian Pro-League | 2015-10-04 | 0.5545106 | 0.1998100 |
| 85 | gillingham | oldham | English League One | 2015-10-03 | 0.5593853 | 0.1966701 |
| 88 | hajduk split | nk istra 1961 | Croatian HNL | 2015-10-04 | 0.5512371 | 0.2019357 |
| 89 | hamilton | celtic | Scottish Premiership | 2015-10-04 | 0.2462456 | 0.4875444 |
| 95 | hearts | kilmarnock | Scottish Premiership | 2015-10-03 | 0.6609360 | 0.1375205 |
| 104 | juventus | bologna | Italian Serie A | 2015-10-04 | 0.7290566 | 0.1035478 |
| 109 | lazio | frosinone c | Italian Serie A | 2015-10-04 | 0.6828928 | 0.1261245 |
| 116 | lok. moscow | amkar perm | Russian Premier | 2015-10-04 | 0.5338266 | 0.2134786 |
| 119 | lucerne | lugano | Swiss Super League | 2015-10-03 | 0.6198953 | 0.1600745 |
| 120 | ludogorets | cherno more | Bulgarian A-PFG | 2015-10-03 | 0.5959505 | 0.1740502 |
| 123 | man city | newcastle | English Premier League | 2015-10-03 | 0.6507496 | 0.1429617 |
| 129 | midtjylland | aarhus | Danish SAS Ligaen | 2015-10-04 | 0.6654581 | 0.1351368 |
| 131 | mlada boleslav | dukla pribram | Czech Liga | 2015-10-03 | 0.5324446 | 0.2144124 |
| 132 | mladost lucani | radnik surdulica | Serbian Super Liga | 2015-10-03 | 0.5706554 | 0.1895256 |
| 133 | monaco | rennes | French Ligue 1 | 2015-10-04 | 0.5712469 | 0.1891550 |
| 136 | m. tel aviv | hapoel acre | Israeli Ligat H | 2015-10-03 | 0.5303714 | 0.2158181 |
| 137 | nd hit gorica | nk celje | Slovenian League | 2015-10-03 | 0.5865688 | 0.1797018 |
| 138 | neman grodno | vitebsk | Belarus League | 2015-10-03 | 0.5647246 | 0.1932656 |
| 141 | nice | nantes | French Ligue 1 | 2015-10-03 | 0.6039424 | 0.1693151 |
| 143 | nk maribor | koper | Slovenian League | 2015-10-03 | 0.6063055 | 0.1679287 |
| 149 | o. ljubljana | nk krsko | Slovenian League | 2015-10-04 | 0.7165486 | 0.1094886 |
| 150 | oostende | lokeren | Belgian Pro-League | 2015-10-02 | 0.5303142 | 0.2158570 |
| 157 | paok salonika | olympiakos | Greek League | 2015-10-04 | 0.2503160 | 0.4820971 |
| 158 | paris st g. | marseille | French Ligue 1 | 2015-10-04 | 0.6715315 | 0.1319656 |
| 160 | partizan | cukaricki | Serbian Super Liga | 2015-10-04 | 0.5829625 | 0.1819016 |
| 164 | plymouth | crawley | English League Two | 2015-10-03 | 0.5632495 | 0.1942026 |
| 165 | poltava | dynamo kiev | Ukrainian Premier | 2015-10-04 | 0.2599250 | 0.4694852 |
| 166 | porto | belenenses | Portuguese Liga | 2015-10-04 | 0.7015685 | 0.1167732 |
| 167 | portsmouth | yeovil | English League Two | 2015-10-03 | 0.5636340 | 0.1939581 |
| 169 | pt talbot | haverfordwest | Welsh Premier | 2015-10-06 | 0.6410721 | 0.1482251 |
| 172 | queen’s park | montrose | Scottish League Two | 2015-10-03 | 0.5494633 | 0.2030933 |
| 175 | randers freja | hobro ik | Danish SAS Ligaen | 2015-10-03 | 0.5768052 | 0.1856931 |
| 176 | rangers | falkirk | Scottish Championship | 2015-10-03 | 0.6463347 | 0.1453514 |
| 181 | rijeka | nk zagreb | Croatian HNL | 2015-10-04 | 0.6571683 | 0.1395214 |
| 182 | rio ave | boavista | Portuguese Liga | 2015-10-03 | 0.5645158 | 0.1933981 |
| 188 | r. vallecano | real betis | Spanish La Liga | 2015-10-04 | 0.5431910 | 0.2072199 |
| 190 | schalke | cologne | German Bundesliga | 2015-10-04 | 0.5549195 | 0.1995454 |
| 193 | shakhtar | ch. odessa | Ukrainian Premier | 2015-10-03 | 0.7168425 | 0.1093476 |
| 199 | slavia sofia | pirin | Bulgarian A-PFG | 2015-10-03 | 0.6609866 | 0.1374937 |
| 200 | slovan liberec | b. 1905 | Czech Liga | 2015-10-04 | 0.5535226 | 0.2004501 |
| 201 | sparta prague | synot | Czech Liga | 2015-10-04 | 0.6309028 | 0.1538574 |
| 202 | sporting lisbon | v guimaraes | Portuguese Liga | 2015-10-04 | 0.6482352 | 0.1443203 |
| 203 | sp subotica | crvena zvezda | Serbian Super Liga | 2015-10-03 | 0.2205839 | 0.5234071 |
| 207 | st mirren | alloa | Scottish Championship | 2015-10-03 | 0.6088885 | 0.1664204 |
| 208 | st. truiden | w beveren | Belgian Pro-League | 2015-10-03 | 0.5612015 | 0.1955080 |
| 213 | terek grozny | rubin | Russian Premier | 2015-10-04 | 0.5234931 | 0.2205247 |
| 214 | the new saints | bangor city | Welsh Premier | 2015-10-02 | 0.6523173 | 0.1421178 |
| 219 | uniao da madeira | benfica | Portuguese Liga | 2015-10-04 | 0.2100048 | 0.5390023 |
| 223 | vojvodina ns | ofk belgrade | Serbian Super Liga | 2015-10-03 | 0.5688961 | 0.1906305 |
| 226 | vysocina jihlava | viktoria plzen | Czech Liga | 2015-10-04 | 0.2424471 | 0.4926855 |
| NA.1 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 231 | wolves | huddersfield | English Championship | 2015-10-03 | 0.5232585 | 0.2206864 |
| 232 | wycombe | northampton | English League Two | 2015-10-03 | 0.5659856 | 0.1924668 |
| 237 | zenit | r. rostov | Russian Premier | 2015-10-03 | 0.6013904 | 0.1708193 |
My apologies for the un-sorted list. Naturally I present the disclaimer that this strategy would have resulted in a positive payoff in previous weeks based on a much smaller sample.
We will see next week whether these picks were actually any good…
Conclusions
This is a tentative first foray into forecasting outside of England, and I hope to refine this, with bookmaker prices, and an evaluation of previous forecasts, in the coming weeks.
For transparency, all forecasts are also listed as a table:
kable(forecast.matches[order(forecast.matches$date,forecast.matches$division),
c("date","division","team1","team2","Ph","Pd","Pa")])| date | division | team1 | team2 | Ph | Pd | Pa | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 150 | 2015-10-02 | Belgian Pro-League | oostende | lokeren | 0.5303142 | 0.2538289 | 0.2158570 |
| 26 | 2015-10-02 | Bulgarian A-PFG | beroe stara | loko. plovdiv | 0.6024372 | 0.2273614 | 0.1702014 |
| 117 | 2015-10-02 | Croatian HNL | loko. zagreb | slaven | 0.3692714 | 0.2839492 | 0.3467794 |
| 23 | 2015-10-02 | Czech Liga | banik ostrava | sigma o. | 0.3792163 | 0.2835606 | 0.3372230 |
| 144 | 2015-10-02 | Danish SAS Ligaen | nordsjaelland | ob odense | 0.5058944 | 0.2612307 | 0.2328749 |
| 186 | 2015-10-02 | English Championship | rotherham | burnley | 0.3556532 | 0.2840990 | 0.3602478 |
| 113 | 2015-10-02 | French Ligue 1 | lille | montpellier | 0.5039550 | 0.2617813 | 0.2342637 |
| 210 | 2015-10-02 | German Bundesliga | sv darmstadt | mainz | 0.4048663 | 0.2815334 | 0.3136003 |
| 79 | 2015-10-02 | League of Ireland | galway fc | sligo rovers | 0.3563213 | 0.2841023 | 0.3595764 |
| 222 | 2015-10-02 | Portuguese Liga | vitoria setubal | estoril | 0.3594417 | 0.2841028 | 0.3564555 |
| 154 | 2015-10-02 | Romanian Liga 1 | pandurii | viitorul c | 0.4533170 | 0.2740476 | 0.2726354 |
| 224 | 2015-10-02 | Romanian Liga 1 | voluntari | concordia c | 0.3663715 | 0.2840187 | 0.3496098 |
| 220 | 2015-10-02 | Russian Premier | ural sver. oblast | kryliya sovetov | 0.4851577 | 0.2668191 | 0.2480232 |
| 125 | 2015-10-02 | Serbian Super Liga | metalac | javor | 0.3334498 | 0.2833405 | 0.3832097 |
| 45 | 2015-10-02 | Spanish La Liga | celta vigo | getafe | 0.6584895 | 0.2026923 | 0.1388183 |
| 196 | 2015-10-02 | Turkish Super Lig | sivasspor | mersin | 0.4899571 | 0.2655851 | 0.2444578 |
| 216 | 2015-10-02 | Turkish Super Lig | trabzonspor | konyaspor | 0.4481560 | 0.2750551 | 0.2767889 |
| 214 | 2015-10-02 | Welsh Premier | the new saints | bangor city | 0.6523173 | 0.2055649 | 0.1421178 |
| 10 | 2015-10-03 | Austrian Bundesliga | altach | aus. vienna | 0.4115624 | 0.2807729 | 0.3076647 |
| 124 | 2015-10-03 | Austrian Bundesliga | mattersburg | admira wacker | 0.4513531 | 0.2744366 | 0.2742103 |
| 211 | 2015-10-03 | Austrian Bundesliga | sv grodig | sturm graz | 0.3047744 | 0.2803645 | 0.4148612 |
| 230 | 2015-10-03 | Austrian Bundesliga | wolfsberger | ried | 0.4061973 | 0.2813896 | 0.3124131 |
| 25 | 2015-10-03 | Belarus League | belshina | torpedo zh | 0.4044301 | 0.2815797 | 0.3139902 |
| 138 | 2015-10-03 | Belarus League | neman grodno | vitebsk | 0.5647246 | 0.2420098 | 0.1932656 |
| 197 | 2015-10-03 | Belarus League | slavia mozyr | fc slutsk | 0.4086586 | 0.2811140 | 0.3102274 |
| 47 | 2015-10-03 | Belgian Pro-League | charleroi | waregem | 0.4747615 | 0.2693654 | 0.2558731 |
| 148 | 2015-10-03 | Belgian Pro-League | o h leuven | mouscron p | 0.4690723 | 0.2706837 | 0.2602440 |
| 208 | 2015-10-03 | Belgian Pro-League | st. truiden | w beveren | 0.5612015 | 0.2432905 | 0.1955080 |
| 227 | 2015-10-03 | Belgian Pro-League | westerlo | kortrijk | 0.3429380 | 0.2838218 | 0.3732402 |
| 120 | 2015-10-03 | Bulgarian A-PFG | ludogorets | cherno more | 0.5959505 | 0.2299993 | 0.1740502 |
| 199 | 2015-10-03 | Bulgarian A-PFG | slavia sofia | pirin | 0.6609866 | 0.2015196 | 0.1374937 |
| 142 | 2015-10-03 | Croatian HNL | nk inter | din zagreb | 0.4097758 | 0.2809848 | 0.3092394 |
| 151 | 2015-10-03 | Croatian HNL | osijek | nk split | 0.3537026 | 0.2840832 | 0.3622142 |
| 73 | 2015-10-03 | Czech Liga | fc brno | teplice | 0.4330313 | 0.2777282 | 0.2892405 |
| 131 | 2015-10-03 | Czech Liga | mlada boleslav | dukla pribram | 0.5324446 | 0.2531430 | 0.2144124 |
| 238 | 2015-10-03 | Czech Liga | zlin | jablonec | 0.3019253 | 0.2799371 | 0.4181377 |
| 175 | 2015-10-03 | Danish SAS Ligaen | randers freja | hobro ik | 0.5768052 | 0.2375017 | 0.1856931 |
| 28 | 2015-10-03 | English Championship | blackburn | ipswich | 0.4406417 | 0.2764360 | 0.2829223 |
| 38 | 2015-10-03 | English Championship | brighton | cardiff | 0.4726368 | 0.2698641 | 0.2574992 |
| 39 | 2015-10-03 | English Championship | bristol c | mk dons | 0.5051836 | 0.2614332 | 0.2333833 |
| 58 | 2015-10-03 | English Championship | derby | brentford | 0.5455432 | 0.2487906 | 0.2056663 |
| 110 | 2015-10-03 | English Championship | leeds | birmingham | 0.3983606 | 0.2821826 | 0.3194568 |
| 146 | 2015-10-03 | English Championship | nottm forest | hull | 0.3612240 | 0.2840923 | 0.3546837 |
| 170 | 2015-10-03 | English Championship | qpr | bolton | 0.4959697 | 0.2639881 | 0.2400422 |
| 178 | 2015-10-03 | English Championship | reading | middlesbro | 0.3299088 | 0.2830988 | 0.3869924 |
| 195 | 2015-10-03 | English Championship | sheff wed | preston | 0.4641384 | 0.2717830 | 0.2640785 |
| 231 | 2015-10-03 | English Championship | wolves | huddersfield | 0.5232585 | 0.2560552 | 0.2206864 |
| 29 | 2015-10-03 | English League One | blackpool | swindon | 0.3750678 | 0.2837507 | 0.3411815 |
| 41 | 2015-10-03 | English League One | burton | southend | 0.5188281 | 0.2574172 | 0.2237548 |
| 51 | 2015-10-03 | English League One | colchester | bury | 0.4100643 | 0.2809510 | 0.3089847 |
| 53 | 2015-10-03 | English League One | coventry | shrewsbury | 0.5290789 | 0.2542237 | 0.2166975 |
| 55 | 2015-10-03 | English League One | crewe | chesterfield | 0.4078638 | 0.2812044 | 0.3109318 |
| 63 | 2015-10-03 | English League One | doncaster | barnsley | 0.3602868 | 0.2840988 | 0.3556144 |
| 85 | 2015-10-03 | English League One | gillingham | oldham | 0.5593853 | 0.2439446 | 0.1966701 |
| 161 | 2015-10-03 | English League One | peterborough | millwall | 0.4556023 | 0.2735864 | 0.2708114 |
| 168 | 2015-10-03 | English League One | port vale | sheff utd | 0.3744740 | 0.2837747 | 0.3417513 |
| 184 | 2015-10-03 | English League One | rochdale | bradford | 0.4882335 | 0.2660325 | 0.2457341 |
| 191 | 2015-10-03 | English League One | scunthorpe | fleetwood | 0.4360848 | 0.2772228 | 0.2866924 |
| 229 | 2015-10-03 | English League One | wigan | walsall | 0.3644672 | 0.2840534 | 0.3514794 |
| 5 | 2015-10-03 | English League Two | accrington | oxford | 0.4279354 | 0.2785324 | 0.2935322 |
| 7 | 2015-10-03 | English League Two | afc w’bledon | barnet | 0.4524844 | 0.2742133 | 0.2733023 |
| 57 | 2015-10-03 | English League Two | dag & red | mansfield | 0.4097843 | 0.2809838 | 0.3092319 |
| 92 | 2015-10-03 | English League Two | hartlepool | luton | 0.4221998 | 0.2793776 | 0.2984226 |
| 112 | 2015-10-03 | English League Two | leyton orient | notts co | 0.5178214 | 0.2577227 | 0.2244559 |
| 134 | 2015-10-03 | English League Two | morecambe | bristol r | 0.4726164 | 0.2698688 | 0.2575148 |
| 139 | 2015-10-03 | English League Two | newport co | exeter | 0.3225629 | 0.2824870 | 0.3949502 |
| 164 | 2015-10-03 | English League Two | plymouth | crawley | 0.5632495 | 0.2425479 | 0.1942026 |
| 167 | 2015-10-03 | English League Two | portsmouth | yeovil | 0.5636340 | 0.2424079 | 0.1939581 |
| 205 | 2015-10-03 | English League Two | stevenage | carlisle | 0.4238187 | 0.2791455 | 0.2970358 |
| 232 | 2015-10-03 | English League Two | wycombe | northampton | 0.5659856 | 0.2415477 | 0.1924668 |
| 234 | 2015-10-03 | English League Two | york | cambridge u | 0.4446109 | 0.2757194 | 0.2796697 |
| 17 | 2015-10-03 | English Premier League | aston villa | stoke | 0.3593932 | 0.2841030 | 0.3565039 |
| 36 | 2015-10-03 | English Premier League | bournemouth | watford | 0.4178462 | 0.2799760 | 0.3021778 |
| 49 | 2015-10-03 | English Premier League | chelsea | southampton | 0.5418210 | 0.2500509 | 0.2081282 |
| 54 | 2015-10-03 | English Premier League | c palace | west brom | 0.5312854 | 0.2535170 | 0.2151976 |
| 123 | 2015-10-03 | English Premier League | man city | newcastle | 0.6507496 | 0.2062887 | 0.1429617 |
| 145 | 2015-10-03 | English Premier League | norwich | leicester | 0.4251245 | 0.2789546 | 0.2959209 |
| 209 | 2015-10-03 | English Premier League | sunderland | west ham | 0.3688907 | 0.2839595 | 0.3471498 |
| 12 | 2015-10-03 | French Ligue 1 | angers | bastia | 0.4575202 | 0.2731922 | 0.2692876 |
| 84 | 2015-10-03 | French Ligue 1 | gfc ajaccio | toulouse | 0.3465443 | 0.2839425 | 0.3695132 |
| 121 | 2015-10-03 | French Ligue 1 | lyon | reims | 0.4534391 | 0.2740232 | 0.2725377 |
| 141 | 2015-10-03 | French Ligue 1 | nice | nantes | 0.6039424 | 0.2267425 | 0.1693151 |
| 217 | 2015-10-03 | French Ligue 1 | troyes | guingamp | 0.3637120 | 0.2840648 | 0.3522232 |
| 90 | 2015-10-03 | German Bundesliga | hannover | w bremen | 0.4176274 | 0.2800051 | 0.3023675 |
| 96 | 2015-10-03 | German Bundesliga | hertha berlin | hamburg | 0.4734685 | 0.2696697 | 0.2568617 |
| 99 | 2015-10-03 | German Bundesliga | hoffenheim | stuttgart | 0.4975686 | 0.2635540 | 0.2388773 |
| 100 | 2015-10-03 | German Bundesliga | ingolstadt | e frankfurt | 0.3042063 | 0.2802812 | 0.4155125 |
| 128 | 2015-10-03 | German Bundesliga | mgladbach | wolfsburg | 0.3354464 | 0.2834618 | 0.3810918 |
| 155 | 2015-10-03 | Greek League | panetolikos | panionios | 0.3996282 | 0.2820631 | 0.3183086 |
| 156 | 2015-10-03 | Greek League | panthrakikos k | levadiakos | 0.3920201 | 0.2827284 | 0.3252515 |
| 233 | 2015-10-03 | Greek League | xanthi | panathinaikos | 0.3014666 | 0.2798660 | 0.4186674 |
| 33 | 2015-10-03 | Israeli Ligat H | bnei yehuda | m. netanya | 0.4655847 | 0.2714651 | 0.2629502 |
| 91 | 2015-10-03 | Israeli Ligat H | hapoel ra’ana | m. haifa | 0.4124161 | 0.2806693 | 0.3069146 |
| 94 | 2015-10-03 | Israeli Ligat H | h. beer sheva | m. petah tikva | 0.4551766 | 0.2736730 | 0.2711504 |
| 97 | 2015-10-03 | Israeli Ligat H | h. haifa | ironi kiryat s | 0.3114588 | 0.2812710 | 0.4072702 |
| 98 | 2015-10-03 | Israeli Ligat H | h. kfar saba | h tel aviv | 0.3533745 | 0.2840796 | 0.3625459 |
| 136 | 2015-10-03 | Israeli Ligat H | m. tel aviv | hapoel acre | 0.5303714 | 0.2538105 | 0.2158181 |
| 44 | 2015-10-03 | Italian Serie A | carpi | torino | 0.2691837 | 0.2731650 | 0.4576513 |
| 50 | 2015-10-03 | Italian Serie A | chievo | verona | 0.5112825 | 0.2596718 | 0.2290457 |
| 4 | 2015-10-03 | Portuguese Liga | acad coimbra | maritimo | 0.2887927 | 0.2776409 | 0.4335663 |
| 152 | 2015-10-03 | Portuguese Liga | pacos ferreira | nacional | 0.4205703 | 0.2796059 | 0.2998237 |
| 182 | 2015-10-03 | Portuguese Liga | rio ave | boavista | 0.5645158 | 0.2420861 | 0.1933981 |
| 215 | 2015-10-03 | Portuguese Liga | tondela | moreirense | 0.4016810 | 0.2818624 | 0.3164566 |
| 56 | 2015-10-03 | Romanian Liga 1 | csms iasi | steaua | 0.3206633 | 0.2823041 | 0.3970327 |
| 60 | 2015-10-03 | Romanian Liga 1 | din. bucharest | astra giurgiu | 0.3713224 | 0.2838880 | 0.3447896 |
| 107 | 2015-10-03 | Russian Premier | kuban k | anzhi | 0.4885799 | 0.2659429 | 0.2454771 |
| 135 | 2015-10-03 | Russian Premier | m saransk | spartak moscow | 0.3586612 | 0.2841049 | 0.3572339 |
| 237 | 2015-10-03 | Russian Premier | zenit | r. rostov | 0.6013904 | 0.2277903 | 0.1708193 |
| 64 | 2015-10-03 | Scottish Championship | dumbarton | livingston | 0.3594647 | 0.2841027 | 0.3564326 |
| 171 | 2015-10-03 | Scottish Championship | queen of sth | hibernian | 0.3168573 | 0.2819067 | 0.4012360 |
| 174 | 2015-10-03 | Scottish Championship | raith | morton | 0.4428377 | 0.2760431 | 0.2811192 |
| 176 | 2015-10-03 | Scottish Championship | rangers | falkirk | 0.6463347 | 0.2083139 | 0.1453514 |
| 207 | 2015-10-03 | Scottish Championship | st mirren | alloa | 0.6088885 | 0.2246911 | 0.1664204 |
| 20 | 2015-10-03 | Scottish FA Cup | auchinleck | bsc glasgow | NA | NA | NA |
| 228 | 2015-10-03 | Scottish FA Cup | whitehill w | wick academy | NA | NA | NA |
| 9 | 2015-10-03 | Scottish League One | airdrieonians | stranraer | 0.5459697 | 0.2486450 | 0.2053853 |
| 21 | 2015-10-03 | Scottish League One | ayr | cowdenbeath | 0.5948915 | 0.2304254 | 0.1746831 |
| 66 | 2015-10-03 | Scottish League One | dunfermline | albion | 0.5944311 | 0.2306103 | 0.1749587 |
| 162 | 2015-10-03 | Scottish League One | peterhead | forfar | 0.4410580 | 0.2763622 | 0.2825799 |
| 204 | 2015-10-03 | Scottish League One | stenh’semuir | brechin | 0.4378407 | 0.2769242 | 0.2852351 |
| 14 | 2015-10-03 | Scottish League Two | arbroath | annan | 0.3500060 | 0.2840268 | 0.3659672 |
| 27 | 2015-10-03 | Scottish League Two | berwick | east stirling | 0.5479578 | 0.2479632 | 0.2040790 |
| 67 | 2015-10-03 | Scottish League Two | east fife | stirling | 0.5881121 | 0.2331227 | 0.1787651 |
| 68 | 2015-10-03 | Scottish League Two | elgin city | clyde | 0.4567964 | 0.2733417 | 0.2698619 |
| 172 | 2015-10-03 | Scottish League Two | queen’s park | montrose | 0.5494633 | 0.2474434 | 0.2030933 |
| 2 | 2015-10-03 | Scottish Premiership | aberdeen | st johnstone | 0.5344767 | 0.2524830 | 0.2130402 |
| 65 | 2015-10-03 | Scottish Premiership | dundee | motherwell | 0.4745615 | 0.2694127 | 0.2560259 |
| 95 | 2015-10-03 | Scottish Premiership | hearts | kilmarnock | 0.6609360 | 0.2015434 | 0.1375205 |
| 159 | 2015-10-03 | Scottish Premiership | partick | dundee utd | 0.4014239 | 0.2818880 | 0.3166881 |
| 185 | 2015-10-03 | Scottish Premiership | ross county | inverness ct | 0.4438573 | 0.2758577 | 0.2802851 |
| 103 | 2015-10-03 | Serbian Super Liga | jagodina | vozdovac | 0.4070680 | 0.2812935 | 0.3116385 |
| 132 | 2015-10-03 | Serbian Super Liga | mladost lucani | radnik surdulica | 0.5706554 | 0.2398190 | 0.1895256 |
| 147 | 2015-10-03 | Serbian Super Liga | novi pazar | radnicki nis | 0.3883466 | 0.2830045 | 0.3286489 |
| 173 | 2015-10-03 | Serbian Super Liga | rad | borac cacak | 0.4016799 | 0.2818625 | 0.3164576 |
| 203 | 2015-10-03 | Serbian Super Liga | sp subotica | crvena zvezda | 0.2205839 | 0.2560090 | 0.5234071 |
| 223 | 2015-10-03 | Serbian Super Liga | vojvodina ns | ofk belgrade | 0.5688961 | 0.2404734 | 0.1906305 |
| 137 | 2015-10-03 | Slovenian League | nd hit gorica | nk celje | 0.5865688 | 0.2337293 | 0.1797018 |
| 143 | 2015-10-03 | Slovenian League | nk maribor | koper | 0.6063055 | 0.2257658 | 0.1679287 |
| 187 | 2015-10-03 | Slovenian League | rudar velenje | domzale | 0.3347912 | 0.2834232 | 0.3817857 |
| 71 | 2015-10-03 | Spanish La Liga | espanyol | sp. gijon | 0.4910020 | 0.2653116 | 0.2436864 |
| 87 | 2015-10-03 | Spanish La Liga | granada | deportivo | 0.3461855 | 0.2839320 | 0.3698825 |
| 108 | 2015-10-03 | Spanish La Liga | las palmas | eibar | 0.4276839 | 0.2785708 | 0.2937453 |
| 122 | 2015-10-03 | Spanish La Liga | malaga | sociedad | 0.3904885 | 0.2828471 | 0.3266644 |
| 192 | 2015-10-03 | Spanish La Liga | seville | barcelona | 0.2835582 | 0.2765720 | 0.4398698 |
| 119 | 2015-10-03 | Swiss Super League | lucerne | lugano | 0.6198953 | 0.2200302 | 0.1600745 |
| 221 | 2015-10-03 | Swiss Super League | vaduz | thun | 0.4327581 | 0.2777726 | 0.2894693 |
| 80 | 2015-10-03 | Turkish Super Lig | gaziantepspor | 1299 osmanlispor | 0.3936758 | 0.2825942 | 0.3237299 |
| 81 | 2015-10-03 | Turkish Super Lig | genclerbirligi | kayserispor | 0.4428859 | 0.2760343 | 0.2810797 |
| 102 | 2015-10-03 | Turkish Super Lig | istanbul buyuk. | galatasaray | 0.3702584 | 0.2839210 | 0.3458206 |
| 126 | 2015-10-03 | Ukrainian Premier | metalist | stal dniprodzerzhynsk | 0.4649702 | 0.2716006 | 0.2634292 |
| 127 | 2015-10-03 | Ukrainian Premier | metalurg z. | olimpik donetsk | 0.4676566 | 0.2710034 | 0.2613400 |
| 193 | 2015-10-03 | Ukrainian Premier | shakhtar | ch. odessa | 0.7168425 | 0.1738099 | 0.1093476 |
| 3 | 2015-10-03 | Welsh Premier | aberystwyth | connah’s q | 0.5615001 | 0.2431825 | 0.1953174 |
| 93 | 2015-10-03 | Welsh Premier | haverfordwest | carmarthen | 0.3604600 | 0.2840978 | 0.3554423 |
| 115 | 2015-10-03 | Welsh Premier | llandudno | airbus uk | 0.3210825 | 0.2823453 | 0.3965722 |
| 140 | 2015-10-03 | Welsh Premier | newtown | bala town | 0.3492286 | 0.2840106 | 0.3667608 |
| 180 | 2015-10-03 | Welsh Premier | rhyl | pt talbot | 0.3577755 | 0.2841055 | 0.3581189 |
| 177 | 2015-10-04 | Austrian Bundesliga | rapid vienna | rb salzburg | 0.5046225 | 0.2615924 | 0.2337851 |
| 24 | 2015-10-04 | Belarus League | bate borisov | granit mikashev | 0.5670876 | 0.2411422 | 0.1917703 |
| 86 | 2015-10-04 | Belarus League | gomel | fc naftan | 0.3430588 | 0.2838264 | 0.3731148 |
| 194 | 2015-10-04 | Belarus League | shakhtyor | fc minsk | 0.4248282 | 0.2789982 | 0.2961736 |
| 11 | 2015-10-04 | Belgian Pro-League | anderlecht | mechelen | 0.6229010 | 0.2187348 | 0.1583642 |
| 82 | 2015-10-04 | Belgian Pro-League | genk | standard liege | 0.5545106 | 0.2456794 | 0.1998100 |
| 83 | 2015-10-04 | Belgian Pro-League | gent | fc bruges | 0.4892503 | 0.2657691 | 0.2449806 |
| 34 | 2015-10-04 | Bulgarian A-PFG | botev plovdiv | pfc montana | 0.4101911 | 0.2809361 | 0.3088728 |
| 114 | 2015-10-04 | Bulgarian A-PFG | litex | levski sofia | 0.5026052 | 0.2621611 | 0.2352337 |
| 88 | 2015-10-04 | Croatian HNL | hajduk split | nk istra 1961 | 0.5512371 | 0.2468273 | 0.2019357 |
| 181 | 2015-10-04 | Croatian HNL | rijeka | nk zagreb | 0.6571683 | 0.2033102 | 0.1395214 |
| 198 | 2015-10-04 | Czech Liga | slavia prague | dukla prague | 0.5018058 | 0.2623848 | 0.2358095 |
| 200 | 2015-10-04 | Czech Liga | slovan liberec | b. 1905 | 0.5535226 | 0.2460273 | 0.2004501 |
| 201 | 2015-10-04 | Czech Liga | sparta prague | synot | 0.6309028 | 0.2152398 | 0.1538574 |
| 226 | 2015-10-04 | Czech Liga | vysocina jihlava | viktoria plzen | 0.2424471 | 0.2648674 | 0.4926855 |
| 1 | 2015-10-04 | Danish SAS Ligaen | aalborg | sonderjyske | 0.4157056 | 0.2802564 | 0.3040380 |
| 40 | 2015-10-04 | Danish SAS Ligaen | brondby | esbjerg | 0.5495675 | 0.2474073 | 0.2030251 |
| 74 | 2015-10-04 | Danish SAS Ligaen | fc copenhagen | viborg | 0.6787914 | 0.1929890 | 0.1282196 |
| 129 | 2015-10-04 | Danish SAS Ligaen | midtjylland | aarhus | 0.6654581 | 0.1994051 | 0.1351368 |
| 48 | 2015-10-04 | English Championship | charlton | fulham | 0.4089767 | 0.2810775 | 0.3099458 |
| 15 | 2015-10-04 | English Premier League | arsenal | man utd | 0.4136418 | 0.2805180 | 0.3058402 |
| 72 | 2015-10-04 | English Premier League | everton | liverpool | 0.5065533 | 0.2610424 | 0.2324043 |
| 212 | 2015-10-04 | English Premier League | swansea | tottenham | 0.3684913 | 0.2839699 | 0.3475388 |
| 42 | 2015-10-04 | French Ligue 1 | caen | st etienne | 0.3861578 | 0.2831549 | 0.3306873 |
| 118 | 2015-10-04 | French Ligue 1 | lorient | bordeaux | 0.3827659 | 0.2833668 | 0.3338673 |
| 133 | 2015-10-04 | French Ligue 1 | monaco | rennes | 0.5712469 | 0.2395981 | 0.1891550 |
| 158 | 2015-10-04 | French Ligue 1 | paris st g. | marseille | 0.6715315 | 0.1965029 | 0.1319656 |
| 30 | 2015-10-04 | German Bundesliga | b leverkusen | augsburg | 0.5881897 | 0.2330922 | 0.1787181 |
| 31 | 2015-10-04 | German Bundesliga | b munich | b dortmund | 0.6113477 | 0.2236612 | 0.1649912 |
| 190 | 2015-10-04 | German Bundesliga | schalke | cologne | 0.5549195 | 0.2455350 | 0.1995454 |
| 6 | 2015-10-04 | Greek League | aek athens | atromitos | 0.3950913 | 0.2824749 | 0.3224338 |
| 101 | 2015-10-04 | Greek League | ioannina | iraklis salonika | 0.5080194 | 0.2606210 | 0.2313596 |
| 105 | 2015-10-04 | Greek League | kalloni | veroia | 0.5069784 | 0.2609205 | 0.2321010 |
| 157 | 2015-10-04 | Greek League | paok salonika | olympiakos | 0.2503160 | 0.2675869 | 0.4820971 |
| 69 | 2015-10-04 | Italian Serie A | empoli | sassuolo | 0.2999844 | 0.2796317 | 0.4203839 |
| 78 | 2015-10-04 | Italian Serie A | fiorentina | atalanta | 0.5816859 | 0.2356301 | 0.1826840 |
| 104 | 2015-10-04 | Italian Serie A | juventus | bologna | 0.7290566 | 0.1673955 | 0.1035478 |
| 109 | 2015-10-04 | Italian Serie A | lazio | frosinone c | 0.6828928 | 0.1909826 | 0.1261245 |
| 130 | 2015-10-04 | Italian Serie A | milan | napoli | 0.3898090 | 0.2828981 | 0.3272928 |
| 153 | 2015-10-04 | Italian Serie A | palermo | roma | 0.3713503 | 0.2838871 | 0.3447626 |
| 189 | 2015-10-04 | Italian Serie A | sampdoria | inter | 0.3845729 | 0.2832571 | 0.3321700 |
| 218 | 2015-10-04 | Italian Serie A | udinese | genoa | 0.3307842 | 0.2831617 | 0.3860541 |
| 37 | 2015-10-04 | Portuguese Liga | braga | arouca | 0.5868485 | 0.2336196 | 0.1795319 |
| 166 | 2015-10-04 | Portuguese Liga | porto | belenenses | 0.7015685 | 0.1816582 | 0.1167732 |
| 202 | 2015-10-04 | Portuguese Liga | sporting lisbon | v guimaraes | 0.6482352 | 0.2074445 | 0.1443203 |
| 219 | 2015-10-04 | Portuguese Liga | uniao da madeira | benfica | 0.2100048 | 0.2509929 | 0.5390023 |
| 35 | 2015-10-04 | Romanian Liga 1 | botosani | targu mures | 0.3076160 | 0.2807662 | 0.4116178 |
| 46 | 2015-10-04 | Romanian Liga 1 | cfr cluj | uni craiova | 0.5068456 | 0.2609586 | 0.2321958 |
| 61 | 2015-10-04 | Russian Premier | din. moscow | cska mosc. | 0.2886209 | 0.2776073 | 0.4337719 |
| 75 | 2015-10-04 | Russian Premier | fc ufa | fk krasnodar | 0.2706644 | 0.2735487 | 0.4557869 |
| 116 | 2015-10-04 | Russian Premier | lok. moscow | amkar perm | 0.5338266 | 0.2526948 | 0.2134786 |
| 213 | 2015-10-04 | Russian Premier | terek grozny | rubin | 0.5234931 | 0.2559822 | 0.2205247 |
| 89 | 2015-10-04 | Scottish Premiership | hamilton | celtic | 0.2462456 | 0.2662100 | 0.4875444 |
| 160 | 2015-10-04 | Serbian Super Liga | partizan | cukaricki | 0.5829625 | 0.2351359 | 0.1819016 |
| 106 | 2015-10-04 | Slovenian League | krka | nk zavrc | 0.3463718 | 0.2839375 | 0.3696907 |
| 149 | 2015-10-04 | Slovenian League | o. ljubljana | nk krsko | 0.7165486 | 0.1739628 | 0.1094886 |
| 18 | 2015-10-04 | Spanish La Liga | ath bilbao | valencia | 0.4188652 | 0.2798393 | 0.3012955 |
| 19 | 2015-10-04 | Spanish La Liga | atl madrid | real madrid | 0.3047743 | 0.2803644 | 0.4148612 |
| 111 | 2015-10-04 | Spanish La Liga | levante | villarreal | 0.2917487 | 0.2782054 | 0.4300459 |
| 188 | 2015-10-04 | Spanish La Liga | r. vallecano | real betis | 0.5431910 | 0.2495891 | 0.2072199 |
| 76 | 2015-10-04 | Swiss Super League | fc zurich | basel | 0.2399916 | 0.2639694 | 0.4960389 |
| 206 | 2015-10-04 | Swiss Super League | st gallen | fc sion | 0.4043751 | 0.2815855 | 0.3140394 |
| 235 | 2015-10-04 | Swiss Super League | young boys | grasshoppers | 0.4473527 | 0.2752076 | 0.2774397 |
| 13 | 2015-10-04 | Turkish Super Lig | antalyaspor | kasimpasa | 0.4240411 | 0.2791132 | 0.2968457 |
| 70 | 2015-10-04 | Turkish Super Lig | eskisehirspor | besiktas | 0.2587089 | 0.2702287 | 0.4710624 |
| 77 | 2015-10-04 | Turkish Super Lig | fenerbahce | akhisar b | 0.6093706 | 0.2244897 | 0.1661396 |
| 183 | 2015-10-04 | Turkish Super Lig | rizespor | bursaspor | 0.4590684 | 0.2728694 | 0.2680623 |
| 62 | 2015-10-04 | Ukrainian Premier | dnipro | oleksandria | 0.6665501 | 0.1988858 | 0.1345641 |
| 165 | 2015-10-04 | Ukrainian Premier | poltava | dynamo kiev | 0.2599250 | 0.2705899 | 0.4694852 |
| 225 | 2015-10-04 | Ukrainian Premier | volyn | zorya | 0.3415779 | 0.2837675 | 0.3746547 |
| 236 | 2015-10-04 | Ukrainian Premier | zakarpatty | karpaty lvov | 0.4620370 | 0.2722387 | 0.2657243 |
| 59 | 2015-10-05 | Belarus League | dinamo minsk | dinamo brest | 0.6408242 | 0.2108146 | 0.1483611 |
| 16 | 2015-10-05 | Greek League | asteras t. | platanias | 0.5274897 | 0.2547284 | 0.2177819 |
| 32 | 2015-10-05 | Israeli Ligat H | bnei sakhnin | beitar j’salem | 0.4598218 | 0.2727107 | 0.2674675 |
| 163 | 2015-10-05 | Romanian Liga 1 | petrolul ploiesti | fc timisoara | 0.4278421 | 0.2785466 | 0.2936113 |
| 8 | 2015-10-06 | Welsh Premier | airbus uk | newtown | 0.5193969 | 0.2572439 | 0.2233593 |
| 22 | 2015-10-06 | Welsh Premier | bala town | aberystwyth | 0.5303451 | 0.2538190 | 0.2158360 |
| 43 | 2015-10-06 | Welsh Premier | carmarthen | the new saints | 0.2129081 | 0.2524190 | 0.5346728 |
| 52 | 2015-10-06 | Welsh Premier | connah’s q | bangor city | 0.4304221 | 0.2781462 | 0.2914317 |
| 169 | 2015-10-06 | Welsh Premier | pt talbot | haverfordwest | 0.6410721 | 0.2107028 | 0.1482251 |
| 179 | 2015-10-06 | Welsh Premier | rhyl | llandudno | 0.3588450 | 0.2841046 | 0.3570504 |