tidy-2.3 EV

Author

Boyuan Gao

Getting Started

library(tidyverse)
── Attaching core tidyverse packages ──────────────────────── tidyverse 2.0.0 ──
✔ dplyr     1.1.4     ✔ readr     2.1.5
✔ forcats   1.0.0     ✔ stringr   1.5.1
✔ ggplot2   3.4.4     ✔ tibble    3.2.1
✔ lubridate 1.9.3     ✔ tidyr     1.3.1
✔ purrr     1.0.2     
── Conflicts ────────────────────────────────────────── tidyverse_conflicts() ──
✖ dplyr::filter() masks stats::filter()
✖ dplyr::lag()    masks stats::lag()
ℹ Use the conflicted package (<http://conflicted.r-lib.org/>) to force all conflicts to become errors
library(readxl)
# install.packages("here")
library(here)
here() starts at /Users/elliegby/Desktop/2024 Spring/Sustainable Finance/IEA_Critical Minerals

Creating a Function

path_to_sheet <- here("data-raw", "CM_Data_Explorer.xlsx")

path_to_sheet
[1] "/Users/elliegby/Desktop/2024 Spring/Sustainable Finance/IEA_Critical Minerals/data-raw/CM_Data_Explorer.xlsx"
read_ev_sheet <- partial(
  .f = read_excel,
  path = path_to_sheet,
  sheet = "2.3 EV",
  col_names = FALSE
)

sheet_header <- read_ev_sheet(range = "A4:W5")
New names:
• `` -> `...1`
• `` -> `...2`
• `` -> `...3`
• `` -> `...4`
• `` -> `...5`
• `` -> `...6`
• `` -> `...7`
• `` -> `...8`
• `` -> `...9`
• `` -> `...10`
• `` -> `...11`
• `` -> `...12`
• `` -> `...13`
• `` -> `...14`
• `` -> `...15`
• `` -> `...16`
• `` -> `...17`
• `` -> `...18`
• `` -> `...19`
• `` -> `...20`
• `` -> `...21`
• `` -> `...22`
• `` -> `...23`
sheet_header
# A tibble: 2 × 23
  ...1   ...2 ...3  ...4    ...5  ...6  ...7  ...8  ...9 ...10 ...11 ...12 ...13
  <lgl> <dbl> <lgl> <chr>  <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <lgl> <chr> <dbl> <dbl>
1 NA       NA NA    State…    NA    NA    NA    NA    NA NA    Anno…    NA    NA
2 NA     2022 NA    2025    2030  2035  2040  2045  2050 NA    2025   2030  2035
# ℹ 10 more variables: ...14 <dbl>, ...15 <dbl>, ...16 <dbl>, ...17 <lgl>,
#   ...18 <chr>, ...19 <dbl>, ...20 <dbl>, ...21 <dbl>, ...22 <dbl>,
#   ...23 <dbl>

Tidying the headers

sheet_header_processed <- sheet_header |> 
  # transpose the data
  t() |>
  # turn it back into a tibble
  as_tibble() |>
  # make them meaningful
  rename(scenario = V1, year = V2) |>
  # fill scenario down
  fill(scenario) |>
  #insert "Current" at top
  replace_na(list(scenario = "Current Year"))
Warning: The `x` argument of `as_tibble.matrix()` must have unique column names if
`.name_repair` is omitted as of tibble 2.0.0.
ℹ Using compatibility `.name_repair`.
sheet_header_processed
# A tibble: 23 × 2
   scenario                 year 
   <chr>                    <chr>
 1 Current Year             <NA> 
 2 Current Year             2022 
 3 Current Year             <NA> 
 4 Stated policies scenario 2025 
 5 Stated policies scenario 2030 
 6 Stated policies scenario 2035 
 7 Stated policies scenario 2040 
 8 Stated policies scenario 2045 
 9 Stated policies scenario 2050 
10 Stated policies scenario <NA> 
# ℹ 13 more rows

Get the Case Name

case_name <- read_ev_sheet(range = "A7") |> 
  pull()
New names:
• `` -> `...1`
case_name
[1] "Constrained nickel supply"

Get the Table

case_info <- read_ev_sheet(range = "A8:W19")
New names:
• `` -> `...1`
• `` -> `...2`
• `` -> `...3`
• `` -> `...4`
• `` -> `...5`
• `` -> `...6`
• `` -> `...7`
• `` -> `...8`
• `` -> `...9`
• `` -> `...10`
• `` -> `...11`
• `` -> `...12`
• `` -> `...13`
• `` -> `...14`
• `` -> `...15`
• `` -> `...16`
• `` -> `...17`
• `` -> `...18`
• `` -> `...19`
• `` -> `...20`
• `` -> `...21`
• `` -> `...22`
• `` -> `...23`
case_info
# A tibble: 12 × 23
   ...1         ...2 ...3     ...4    ...5    ...6    ...7    ...8    ...9 ...10
   <chr>       <dbl> <lgl>   <dbl>   <dbl>   <dbl>   <dbl>   <dbl>   <dbl> <lgl>
 1 Copper    3.81e+2 NA    6.17e+2 1.39e+3 1.74e+3 2.23e+3 2.42e+3 2.31e+3 NA   
 2 Cobalt    6.35e+1 NA    6.12e+1 3.80e+1 2.91e+1 3.54e+1 4.09e+1 4.74e+1 NA   
 3 Graphite  5.57e+2 NA    9.36e+2 1.59e+3 1.78e+3 1.69e+3 1.49e+3 1.08e+3 NA   
 4 Lithium   6.96e+1 NA    1.23e+2 2.19e+2 3.07e+2 4.07e+2 4.50e+2 4.13e+2 NA   
 5 Manganese 7.45e+1 NA    5.39e+1 1.56e+2 3.36e+2 5.33e+2 7.12e+2 8.58e+2 NA   
 6 Nickel    3.13e+2 NA    5.54e+2 5.13e+2 5.89e+2 6.30e+2 6.92e+2 6.88e+2 NA   
 7 Silicon   8.70e+0 NA    4.05e+1 1.39e+2 2.24e+2 3.52e+2 3.74e+2 3.73e+2 NA   
 8 Neodymium 3.96e+0 NA    7.25e+0 1.22e+1 1.51e+1 1.88e+1 2.18e+1 2.29e+1 NA   
 9 Dysprosi… 4.13e-1 NA    7.41e-1 1.21e+0 1.48e+0 1.84e+0 2.13e+0 2.23e+0 NA   
10 Praseody… 5.94e-1 NA    1.09e+0 1.83e+0 2.27e+0 2.83e+0 3.27e+0 3.43e+0 NA   
11 Terbium   8.06e-2 NA    1.48e-1 2.52e-1 3.14e-1 3.91e-1 4.52e-1 4.74e-1 NA   
12 Total EV  1.47e+3 NA    2.39e+3 4.06e+3 5.02e+3 5.91e+3 6.21e+3 5.80e+3 NA   
# ℹ 13 more variables: ...11 <dbl>, ...12 <dbl>, ...13 <dbl>, ...14 <dbl>,
#   ...15 <dbl>, ...16 <dbl>, ...17 <lgl>, ...18 <dbl>, ...19 <dbl>,
#   ...20 <dbl>, ...21 <dbl>, ...22 <dbl>, ...23 <dbl>

Putting it All Together

case_info_col_names <- names(case_info)

case_info_col_names
 [1] "...1"  "...2"  "...3"  "...4"  "...5"  "...6"  "...7"  "...8"  "...9" 
[10] "...10" "...11" "...12" "...13" "...14" "...15" "...16" "...17" "...18"
[19] "...19" "...20" "...21" "...22" "...23"
sheet_headers_and_col_names <- sheet_header_processed |> 
  add_column(case_info_col_names = case_info_col_names)

sheet_headers_and_col_names
# A tibble: 23 × 3
   scenario                 year  case_info_col_names
   <chr>                    <chr> <chr>              
 1 Current Year             <NA>  ...1               
 2 Current Year             2022  ...2               
 3 Current Year             <NA>  ...3               
 4 Stated policies scenario 2025  ...4               
 5 Stated policies scenario 2030  ...5               
 6 Stated policies scenario 2035  ...6               
 7 Stated policies scenario 2040  ...7               
 8 Stated policies scenario 2045  ...8               
 9 Stated policies scenario 2050  ...9               
10 Stated policies scenario <NA>  ...10              
# ℹ 13 more rows
case_info_long <- case_info |> 
  rename(indicator = `...1`) |> 
  pivot_longer(cols = -indicator,
               names_to = "case_info_col_names") |> 
  add_column(case_name)

case_info_long
# A tibble: 264 × 4
   indicator case_info_col_names value case_name                
   <chr>     <chr>               <dbl> <chr>                    
 1 Copper    ...2                 381. Constrained nickel supply
 2 Copper    ...3                  NA  Constrained nickel supply
 3 Copper    ...4                 617. Constrained nickel supply
 4 Copper    ...5                1389. Constrained nickel supply
 5 Copper    ...6                1736. Constrained nickel supply
 6 Copper    ...7                2233. Constrained nickel supply
 7 Copper    ...8                2418. Constrained nickel supply
 8 Copper    ...9                2313. Constrained nickel supply
 9 Copper    ...10                 NA  Constrained nickel supply
10 Copper    ...11                732. Constrained nickel supply
# ℹ 254 more rows
combined_data <- case_info_long |> 
  left_join(sheet_headers_and_col_names, by = join_by(case_info_col_names)) |> 
  # filter out what were empty columns (where years are NA) 
  filter(!is.na(year)) |> 
  mutate(
    # convert the year column from character to numeric
    year = as.integer(year)
  ) |> 
  rename(mineral = indicator,
         tech_scenarios = case_name,
         policy_scenarios = scenario) |> 
  select(mineral, tech_scenarios, policy_scenarios, year, value)

combined_data
# A tibble: 228 × 5
   mineral tech_scenarios            policy_scenarios            year value
   <chr>   <chr>                     <chr>                      <int> <dbl>
 1 Copper  Constrained nickel supply Current Year                2022  381.
 2 Copper  Constrained nickel supply Stated policies scenario    2025  617.
 3 Copper  Constrained nickel supply Stated policies scenario    2030 1389.
 4 Copper  Constrained nickel supply Stated policies scenario    2035 1736.
 5 Copper  Constrained nickel supply Stated policies scenario    2040 2233.
 6 Copper  Constrained nickel supply Stated policies scenario    2045 2418.
 7 Copper  Constrained nickel supply Stated policies scenario    2050 2313.
 8 Copper  Constrained nickel supply Announced pledges scenario  2025  732.
 9 Copper  Constrained nickel supply Announced pledges scenario  2030 2113.
10 Copper  Constrained nickel supply Announced pledges scenario  2035 3587.
# ℹ 218 more rows

Building the Function

read_iea_ev_table <-
  function(case_name_range, case_info_range) {
    case_name <-
      read_ev_sheet(range = case_name_range) |>
      pull()
    
    case_info <- read_ev_sheet(range = case_info_range)
    
    case_info_col_names <- names(case_info)
    
    case_info_long <- case_info |>
      rename(indicator = `...1`) |>
      pivot_longer(cols = -indicator,
                   names_to = "case_info_col_names") |>
      add_column(case_name)
    
    combined_data <- case_info_long |>
      left_join(sheet_headers_and_col_names, by = join_by(case_info_col_names)) |>
      # filter out what were empty columns (where years are NA)
      filter(!is.na(year)) |>
      # case_when is supercharged if else
      mutate(
        # convert the year column from character to numeric
        year = as.integer(year)
      ) |> 
      rename(mineral = indicator,
             tech_scenarios = case_name,
             policy_scenarios = scenario) |> 
      select(mineral, tech_scenarios, policy_scenarios, year, value)
    
    combined_data
  }
constrained_nickel_supply_table <- read_iea_ev_table(
  case_name_range = "A7",
  case_info_range = "A8:W19"
)
New names:
New names:
• `` -> `...1`
wider_use_of_siliconrich_anodes_table <- read_iea_ev_table(
  case_name_range = "A22",
  case_info_range = "A23:W34"
)
New names:
New names:
• `` -> `...1`
faster_uptake_of_solid_state_batteries_table <- read_iea_ev_table(
  case_name_range = "A37",
  case_info_range = "A38:W49"
)
New names:
New names:
• `` -> `...1`
lower_battery_sizes_table <- read_iea_ev_table(
  case_name_range = "A52",
  case_info_range = "A53:W64"
)
New names:
New names:
• `` -> `...1`
limited_battery_size_reduction_table <- read_iea_ev_table(
  case_name_range = "A67",
  case_info_range = "A68:W79"
)
New names:
New names:
• `` -> `...1`
base_case_table <- read_iea_ev_table(
  case_name_range = "A82",
  case_info_range = "A83:W94"
)
New names:
New names:
• `` -> `...1`
final_iea_ev_table <- base_case_table |> 
  bind_rows(constrained_nickel_supply_table) |> 
  bind_rows(wider_use_of_siliconrich_anodes_table) |>
  bind_rows(faster_uptake_of_solid_state_batteries_table) |>
  bind_rows(lower_battery_sizes_table) |> 
  bind_rows(limited_battery_size_reduction_table)

final_iea_ev_table
# A tibble: 1,368 × 5
   mineral tech_scenarios    policy_scenarios            year value
   <chr>   <chr>             <chr>                      <int> <dbl>
 1 Copper  STEPS - Base case Current Year                2022  373.
 2 Copper  STEPS - Base case Stated policies scenario    2025  580.
 3 Copper  STEPS - Base case Stated policies scenario    2030 1044.
 4 Copper  STEPS - Base case Stated policies scenario    2035 1219.
 5 Copper  STEPS - Base case Stated policies scenario    2040 1421.
 6 Copper  STEPS - Base case Stated policies scenario    2045 1458.
 7 Copper  STEPS - Base case Stated policies scenario    2050 1346.
 8 Copper  STEPS - Base case Announced pledges scenario  2025  689.
 9 Copper  STEPS - Base case Announced pledges scenario  2030 1592.
10 Copper  STEPS - Base case Announced pledges scenario  2035 2570.
# ℹ 1,358 more rows

Writing the Tidied Data

write_csv(final_iea_ev_table,here("data", "iea_ev.csv"))

Problem 1.1 Result

cleaned_ev <- here("data", "iea_ev.csv") |> 
  read_csv()
Rows: 1368 Columns: 5
── Column specification ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Delimiter: ","
chr (3): mineral, tech_scenarios, policy_scenarios
dbl (2): year, value

ℹ Use `spec()` to retrieve the full column specification for this data.
ℹ Specify the column types or set `show_col_types = FALSE` to quiet this message.
cleaned_ev
# A tibble: 1,368 × 5
   mineral tech_scenarios    policy_scenarios            year value
   <chr>   <chr>             <chr>                      <dbl> <dbl>
 1 Copper  STEPS - Base case Current Year                2022  373.
 2 Copper  STEPS - Base case Stated policies scenario    2025  580.
 3 Copper  STEPS - Base case Stated policies scenario    2030 1044.
 4 Copper  STEPS - Base case Stated policies scenario    2035 1219.
 5 Copper  STEPS - Base case Stated policies scenario    2040 1421.
 6 Copper  STEPS - Base case Stated policies scenario    2045 1458.
 7 Copper  STEPS - Base case Stated policies scenario    2050 1346.
 8 Copper  STEPS - Base case Announced pledges scenario  2025  689.
 9 Copper  STEPS - Base case Announced pledges scenario  2030 1592.
10 Copper  STEPS - Base case Announced pledges scenario  2035 2570.
# ℹ 1,358 more rows

Problem 1.2 Result

  1. Base Case: Demand for Copper and Cobalt (by policy scenarios)
base_copper_cobalt <- base_case_table |> 
  filter(mineral %in% c("Copper", "Cobalt"),
         !year == "2022")

ggplot(base_copper_cobalt, aes(x = year, y = value, fill = mineral)) +
  geom_bar(stat = "identity", position = "stack") +
  labs(
    title = "Base Case: Demand for Copper and Cobalt (by policy scenarios)",
    subtitle = "Net zero emissions by 2050 scenario requires the most copper and cobalt",
    x = "",
    y = "Demand for Minerals in Kiloton"
  ) +
  facet_wrap(~ policy_scenarios)

  1. Stated Policies Scenario: Demand for Copper (by technological scenarios)
state_policy_copper <- cleaned_ev |> 
  filter(policy_scenarios == "Stated policies scenario",
         mineral == "Copper",
         !year == "2022")

ggplot(state_policy_copper, aes(x = year, y = value)) +
  geom_bar(stat = "identity") +
  labs(
    title = "Stated Policies Scenario: Demand for Copper (by technological scenarios)",
    subtitle = "Constrained nickel supply scenario requires the most copper",
    x = "",
    y = "Demand for Copper in Kiloton"
  ) +
  facet_wrap(~ tech_scenarios)
Warning: Removed 6 rows containing missing values (`position_stack()`).

  1. Stated Policies Scenario: Demand for Cobalt (by technological scenarios)
state_policy_cobalt <- cleaned_ev |> 
  filter(policy_scenarios == "Stated policies scenario",
         mineral == "Cobalt",
         !year == "2022")

ggplot(state_policy_cobalt, aes(x = year, y = value)) +
  geom_bar(stat = "identity") +
  labs(
    title = "Stated Policies Scenario: Demand for Cobalt (by technological scenarios)",
    subtitle = "Constrained nickel supply scenario requires the least cobalt",
    x = "",
    y = "Demand for Cobalt in Kiloton"
  ) +
  facet_wrap(~ tech_scenarios)
Warning: Removed 6 rows containing missing values (`position_stack()`).

  1. 2022: Demand for Copper and Cobalt
copper_cobalt_2022 <- cleaned_ev |> 
  filter(mineral %in% c("Copper", "Cobalt"),
         year == "2022") 

ggplot(copper_cobalt_2022, aes(x = tech_scenarios, y = value, fill = mineral)) +
  geom_bar(stat = "identity", position = "stack") +
  labs(
    title = "2022: Demand for Copper and Cobalt",
    subtitle = "Demand for copper is a lot more larger than cobalt",
    x = "",
    y = "Demand for Minerals in Kiloton"
  ) + 
  theme(axis.text.x = element_text(angle = 45, hjust = 1))

  1. Base Case: Demand for Copper and Cobalt (stated policies scenarios)
base_copper_cobalt_stated_policies <- base_case_table |> 
  filter(mineral %in% c("Copper", "Cobalt"),
         !year == "2022",
         policy_scenarios == "Stated policies scenario")

ggplot(base_copper_cobalt_stated_policies, aes(x = year, y = value, color = mineral)) +
  geom_line() +
  labs(
    title = "Demand for Copper and Cobalt (stated policies scenarios)",
    subtitle = "Demand for copper increases then decreases, while demand for cobalt keeps increasing",
    x = "",
    y = "Demand for Minerals in Kiloton"
  )