Deaths Undiscovered

Why we looked. What we found. What it might mean

Jon Minton

Context

  • Dreams of a Life is a 2011 drama-documentary film, released by Dogwoof Pictures, directed by Carol Morley and starring Zawe Ashton as Joyce Carol Vincent, a London woman whose remains were discovered in her home in 2006, just over two years after she had died.

Other cases

Sheila Seleoane

  • Died in 2019, age 58 in a London social housing block

  • Not discovered for over 2 years

Laura Winham

  • Died age 38
  • Found in 2021 in a ‘mummified’ state in 2021

  • Are such deaths part of a more general trend?

  • We decided to investigate…

Who’s we?

Lu Hiam

  • Former GP
  • PhD Student & Very Active Public Health Researcher
  • And much more

Theo Estrin-Serlui

  • Histopathologist

Danny Dorling

  • Human Geographer

Martin McKee

  • Professor of European Public Health

Jon Minton

  • Data Dogsbody

Specific questions

  • What have the trends been in deaths found decomposed/unattended?
  • How large have these trends been?
  • Are there any differences between:
    • Males cf Females
    • Older cf Younger people?

Prior methodological question:

  • How do we operationalise this question?

Methods

Data

  • ONS, publicly available by ICD1 code
  • By five year age groups, sex, from 1979-2021

Metric

  • European Age Standardised Rates (EASRs)
  • (Partial) EASRs
ICD Version Years Codes Description
9a 1979-1984 798.9; 799.9 Sudden death, cause unknown; Other ill-defined and unknown causes of morbidity and mortality
9b 1985-1993 798.9; 799.9 Sudden death, cause unknown; Other ill-defined and unknown causes of morbidity and mortality
9c 1994-2000 798.9; 799.9 Sudden death, cause unknown; Other ill-defined and unknown causes of morbidity and mortality
10 2001-2021 R98; R99 Unattended death; Other ill-defined and unspecified causes of mortality

Expectations

  • What do you think?
  • Menti Link
    • https://www.menti.com/alpdp7ymgckp
    • Code 7976 4400

Results

Figure 1: EASRs over time

Figure 2: By Broad Age group

Figure 3: Indexed to 1980

Simpler still?

Blog Figure

Tip of the iceberg

  • For every (very neglected) body found in an R98/R99 state
    • There may be 10+ (fairly neglected) found somewhat decomposed but still viable for pathological assessment
  • For every body fairly or very neglected post mortem
    • Pre-mortem and peri-mortem neglect is very likely too
  • Is this a reasonable measure of social isolation and breakdown of formal and informal social support networks?

Coverage

Daily Mail Coverage

Guardian Coverage

Why this unites as a concern (speculative)

Getting Together

Getting On Your Bike

Questions/discussion

  • What do you think?

  • Is secularisation culpable, or economic liberalisation? (Or both? or neither?)

  • What questions does this raise?

  • What should we research next (if anything)?

  • What should we do about this?

  • Thanks for listening!