| Trend in double-negative opinion, Nov. 2021-Feb. 2024 | |||||
| Among registered voters | |||||
| Poll dates | Favorability | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fav Biden, Fav Trump | Fav Biden, Unfav Trump | Unfav Biden, Fav Trump | Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump | DK either | |
| 2/5-15/24 | 2 | 37 | 42 | 17 | 1 |
| 11/2-7/23 | 3 | 36 | 38 | 20 | 2 |
| 9/18-25/23 | 3 | 36 | 39 | 20 | 2 |
| 7/7-12/23 | 1 | 39 | 33 | 23 | 3 |
| 5/8-18/23 | 2 | 35 | 36 | 23 | 5 |
| 3/13-22/23 | 2 | 39 | 32 | 23 | 5 |
| 1/9-20/23 | 1 | 42 | 34 | 19 | 4 |
| 11/15-22/22 | 1 | 44 | 30 | 21 | 4 |
| 9/7-14/22 | 1 | 43 | 32 | 21 | 3 |
| 7/5-12/22 | 0 | 35 | 34 | 26 | 5 |
| 5/9-19/22 | 1 | 39 | 36 | 20 | 4 |
| 3/14-24/22 | 2 | 41 | 35 | 18 | 3 |
| 1/10-21/22 | 2 | 44 | 29 | 22 | 4 |
| 11/1-10/21 | 1 | 43 | 30 | 20 | 6 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024 | |||||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? | |||||
Double-negative voters
Marquette Law School Polls
Double-negative voters
A substantial percentage of voters have negative views of both Joe Biden and Donald Trump. This report tracks those feelings and the vote choices of registered voters nationally in Marquette Law School Polls.
The latest survey was conducted Feb. 5-15, 2024, interviewing 882 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points. Full results, including toplines, crosstabs, survey instrument and methodology report, are available at the MULawPoll website
Trend in double-negative opinion
We ask:
“Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?”
Double-negatives are those with an unfavorable view of both Biden and Trump.
The trend since November 2021 is shown in Table 1, in reverse chronological order.
Vote choice by favorability
The MULawPoll asks an initial vote choice, which includes options for “someone else” and “wouldn’t vote”. Those not chosing Biden or Trump are then asked a follow up question “if you had to choose.” The initial question shows reluctance to choose a candidate, while the second gives a measure of how even reluctant voters lean in a two-way contest.
The second, leaned, vote choice has been asked since May 2023.
The order of candidate names is randomized. The questions are:
If the 2024 election for president were held today between Former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? (Response options include “Someone else” and “Wouldn’t vote”. These are displayed in the online survey.)
(If someone else or wouldn’t vote) If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?
Initial vote choice by double-negatives
Table 2 shows initial vote choice by favorability to Biden and Trump since Nov. 2021, in reverse chronological order.
The “double-positive” group, favorable to both candidates, has far too few respondents to be meaningful, but is included here for completeness.
The choices of the double-negatives vary considerably from poll to poll.
| Initial vote choice by double-negatives | |||||
| Among registered voters | |||||
| Favorability | Vote choice | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | Joe Biden | Someone else | Wouldn't vote | n | |
| 2/5-15/24 | |||||
| Fav Biden, Fav Trump | 67 | 18 | 9 | 6 | 17 |
| Fav Biden, Unfav Trump | 1 | 94 | 5 | 1 | 293 |
| Unfav Biden, Fav Trump | 95 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 333 |
| Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump | 16 | 37 | 29 | 19 | 133 |
| 11/2-7/23 | |||||
| Fav Biden, Fav Trump | 18 | 47 | 26 | 8 | 26 |
| Fav Biden, Unfav Trump | 1 | 88 | 9 | 2 | 280 |
| Unfav Biden, Fav Trump | 95 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 301 |
| Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump | 23 | 27 | 46 | 5 | 160 |
| 9/18-25/23 | |||||
| Fav Biden, Fav Trump | 51 | 38 | 12 | 0 | 20 |
| Fav Biden, Unfav Trump | 1 | 89 | 9 | 2 | 282 |
| Unfav Biden, Fav Trump | 93 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 307 |
| Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump | 25 | 28 | 34 | 13 | 159 |
| 7/7-12/23 | |||||
| Fav Biden, Fav Trump | 50 | 8 | 22 | 21 | 12 |
| Fav Biden, Unfav Trump | 2 | 84 | 12 | 2 | 308 |
| Unfav Biden, Fav Trump | 95 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 262 |
| Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump | 21 | 14 | 52 | 14 | 185 |
| 5/8-18/23 | |||||
| Fav Biden, Fav Trump | 67 | 25 | 7 | 0 | 17 |
| Fav Biden, Unfav Trump | 1 | 87 | 9 | 3 | 274 |
| Unfav Biden, Fav Trump | 93 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 285 |
| Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump | 18 | 10 | 54 | 18 | 179 |
| 3/13-22/23 | |||||
| Fav Biden, Fav Trump | 59 | 34 | 7 | 0 | 12 |
| Fav Biden, Unfav Trump | 1 | 85 | 13 | 2 | 304 |
| Unfav Biden, Fav Trump | 92 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 254 |
| Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump | 22 | 15 | 52 | 12 | 177 |
| 1/9-20/23 | |||||
| Fav Biden, Fav Trump | 82 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 6 |
| Fav Biden, Unfav Trump | 1 | 85 | 13 | 1 | 331 |
| Unfav Biden, Fav Trump | 96 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 272 |
| Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump | 24 | 16 | 50 | 10 | 151 |
| 11/15-22/22 | |||||
| Fav Biden, Fav Trump | 40 | 32 | 25 | 3 | 9 |
| Fav Biden, Unfav Trump | 1 | 86 | 12 | 1 | 341 |
| Unfav Biden, Fav Trump | 94 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 231 |
| Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump | 17 | 19 | 51 | 13 | 164 |
| 3/14-24/22 | |||||
| Fav Biden, Fav Trump | 68 | 1 | 22 | 9 | 19 |
| Fav Biden, Unfav Trump | 0 | 89 | 9 | 1 | 341 |
| Unfav Biden, Fav Trump | 95 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 291 |
| Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump | 10 | 24 | 53 | 13 | 145 |
| 1/10-21/22 | |||||
| Fav Biden, Fav Trump | 12 | 9 | 64 | 15 | 13 |
| Fav Biden, Unfav Trump | 0 | 87 | 10 | 1 | 360 |
| Unfav Biden, Fav Trump | 93 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 238 |
| Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump | 23 | 22 | 43 | 12 | 180 |
| 11/1-10/21 | |||||
| Fav Biden, Fav Trump | 75 | 14 | 0 | 11 | 7 |
| Fav Biden, Unfav Trump | 1 | 84 | 12 | 2 | 352 |
| Unfav Biden, Fav Trump | 95 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 244 |
| Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump | 21 | 21 | 51 | 8 | 162 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, latest: Feb. 5-15, 2024 | |||||
| Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? (response options inclule ‘someone else’ and ‘wouldn’t vote’.) | |||||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? | |||||
Leaned vote choice by double-negatives
Table 3 shows leaned vote choice (including “if you had to choose”) by favorability to Biden and Trump since May 2023 when the second, “if you had to choose” question, was added to the survey.
| Leaned vote choice by double-negatives | |||||
| Among registered voters | |||||
| Favorability | Vote choice | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | Joe Biden | Someone else | Wouldn't vote | n | |
| 2/5-15/24 | |||||
| Fav Biden, Fav Trump | 82 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
| Fav Biden, Unfav Trump | 2 | 98 | 0 | 0 | 293 |
| Unfav Biden, Fav Trump | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 333 |
| Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump | 36 | 63 | 1 | 0 | 133 |
| 11/2-7/23 | |||||
| Fav Biden, Fav Trump | 51 | 49 | 0 | 0 | 26 |
| Fav Biden, Unfav Trump | 2 | 98 | 0 | 0 | 280 |
| Unfav Biden, Fav Trump | 99 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 301 |
| Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump | 52 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 160 |
| 9/18-25/23 | |||||
| Fav Biden, Fav Trump | 52 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
| Fav Biden, Unfav Trump | 1 | 98 | 0 | 1 | 282 |
| Unfav Biden, Fav Trump | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 307 |
| Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump | 45 | 54 | 0 | 1 | 159 |
| 7/7-12/23 | |||||
| Fav Biden, Fav Trump | 82 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| Fav Biden, Unfav Trump | 2 | 98 | 0 | 0 | 308 |
| Unfav Biden, Fav Trump | 98 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 262 |
| Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump | 60 | 39 | 1 | 0 | 185 |
| 5/8-18/23 | |||||
| Fav Biden, Fav Trump | 75 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
| Fav Biden, Unfav Trump | 2 | 98 | 0 | 0 | 274 |
| Unfav Biden, Fav Trump | 98 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 285 |
| Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump | 55 | 44 | 1 | 0 | 179 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, latest: Feb. 5-15, 2024 | |||||
| Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? (response options inclule ‘someone else’ and ‘wouldn’t vote’.) | |||||
| Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump? | |||||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? | |||||
Double-negatives with third party candidates
In February 2024, the survey added a vote question listing three additional candidates, independent Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent Cornel West. That question is shown in Table 4 by double-negatives.
| Five candidate ballot by double-negatives | |||||||
| Among registered voters | |||||||
| Favorability | Vote choice | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Trump | Kennedy | West | Stein | Skipped/Ref | n | |
| Fav Biden, Fav Trump | 18 | 63 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 17 |
| Fav Biden, Unfav Trump | 88 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 293 |
| Unfav Biden, Fav Trump | 0 | 89 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 333 |
| Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump | 30 | 10 | 47 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 133 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024 | |||||||
| Question: If the presidential ballot included additional candidates, would you vote for Democrat Joe Biden, Republican Donald Trump, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr, independent Cornel West, or the Green Party’s Jill Stein? | |||||||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? | |||||||
Who are the double-negatives?
To look at the demographic characteristics of the double-negatives, I pool the Marquette Law School polls from July 2023 to February 2024 in order to maximize the cases available for analysis.
Partisanship
Table 5 shows the partisan makeup of each combination of favorability.
| Partisan composition of double-negatives | ||||||
| Among registered voters | ||||||
| Favorability | Party ID | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Lean Republican | Independent | Lean Democrat | Democrat | n | |
| Fav Biden, Fav Trump | 13 | 7 | 29 | 13 | 38 | 75 |
| Fav Biden, Unfav Trump | 3 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 70 | 1,163 |
| Unfav Biden, Fav Trump | 71 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1,204 |
| Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump | 27 | 12 | 21 | 14 | 26 | 637 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, July 2023-Feb. 2024 | ||||||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? | ||||||
Ideology
Table 6 shows the self-described ideological makeup of each combination of favorability.
| Ideological composition of double-negatives | ||||||
| Among registered voters | ||||||
| Favorability | Ideology | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very conservative | Somewhat conservative | Moderate | Somewhat liberal | Very liberal | n | |
| Fav Biden, Fav Trump | 11 | 29 | 40 | 11 | 9 | 75 |
| Fav Biden, Unfav Trump | 2 | 6 | 39 | 34 | 19 | 1,163 |
| Unfav Biden, Fav Trump | 31 | 43 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 1,204 |
| Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump | 7 | 21 | 46 | 15 | 10 | 637 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, July 2023-Feb. 2024 | ||||||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? | ||||||
Attention to politics
Table 7 shows attention to politics by each combination of favorability.
| Attention to politics by double-negatives | |||||
| Among registered voters | |||||
| Favorability | Attention | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most of the time | Some of the time | Only now and then | Hardly at all | n | |
| Fav Biden, Fav Trump | 22 | 51 | 14 | 13 | 75 |
| Fav Biden, Unfav Trump | 47 | 37 | 12 | 3 | 1,163 |
| Unfav Biden, Fav Trump | 47 | 40 | 10 | 3 | 1,204 |
| Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump | 31 | 44 | 18 | 7 | 637 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, July 2023-Feb. 2024 | |||||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? | |||||
| Question: Some people seem to follow what’s going on in politics most of the time, whether there’s an election going on or not. Others aren’t that interested. How often do you follow what’s going on in politics…? | |||||
Enthusiasm to vote in November
Table 8 shows enthusiasm to vote in the election by each combination of favorability.
| Enthusiasm to vote by double-negativess | |||||
| Among registered voters | |||||
| Favorability | Enthusiasm | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very enthusiastic | Somewhat enthusiastic | Not too enthusiastic | Not at all enthusiastic | n | |
| Fav Biden, Fav Trump | 32 | 44 | 23 | 2 | 64 |
| Fav Biden, Unfav Trump | 42 | 34 | 20 | 4 | 854 |
| Unfav Biden, Fav Trump | 56 | 31 | 11 | 2 | 942 |
| Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump | 16 | 29 | 39 | 16 | 452 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, July 2023-Feb. 2024 | |||||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? | |||||
| Question: How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic? | |||||
Age
Table 9 shows the age composition of each combination of favorability.
| Age composition by double-negatives | |||||
| Among registered voters | |||||
| Favorability | Age | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18-29 | 30-44 | 45-59 | 60+ | n | |
| Fav Biden, Fav Trump | 39 | 26 | 17 | 18 | 75 |
| Fav Biden, Unfav Trump | 13 | 22 | 26 | 39 | 1,163 |
| Unfav Biden, Fav Trump | 12 | 23 | 26 | 39 | 1,204 |
| Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump | 21 | 29 | 22 | 28 | 637 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, July 2023-Feb. 2024 | |||||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? | |||||
Education
Table 10 shows the educational composition of each combination of favorability.
| Educational composition by double-negatives | |||||||
| Among registered voters | |||||||
| Favorability | Education | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than HS | HS graduate | Some college, no degree | Associate's degree | Bachelor's degree | Post grad study/professional degree | n | |
| Fav Biden, Fav Trump | 17 | 28 | 18 | 17 | 12 | 8 | 75 |
| Fav Biden, Unfav Trump | 7 | 20 | 15 | 9 | 22 | 27 | 1,163 |
| Unfav Biden, Fav Trump | 9 | 35 | 18 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 1,204 |
| Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump | 5 | 23 | 18 | 13 | 19 | 21 | 637 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, July 2023-Feb. 2024 | |||||||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? | |||||||
Race and ethnicity
Table 11 shows the racial & ethnic composition of each combination of favorability.
| Racial & ethnic composition by double-negatives | |||||
| Among registered voters | |||||
| Favorability | Race & ethnicity | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| White | Black | Hispanic | Other/Multiple | n | |
| Fav Biden, Fav Trump | 19 | 28 | 36 | 12 | 75 |
| Fav Biden, Unfav Trump | 55 | 19 | 15 | 10 | 1,163 |
| Unfav Biden, Fav Trump | 75 | 4 | 13 | 6 | 1,204 |
| Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump | 62 | 10 | 16 | 9 | 637 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, July 2023-Feb. 2024 | |||||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? | |||||
Gender
Table 12 shows the gender composition of each combination of favorability.
| Gender composition by double-negatives | ||||
| Among registered voters | ||||
| Favorability | Gender | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Male | Female | Another gender | n | |
| Fav Biden, Fav Trump | 48 | 48 | 3 | 75 |
| Fav Biden, Unfav Trump | 43 | 54 | 1 | 1,163 |
| Unfav Biden, Fav Trump | 55 | 43 | 0 | 1,204 |
| Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump | 46 | 51 | 2 | 637 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, July 2023-Feb. 2024 | ||||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? | ||||
Internet use
Table 13 shows the frequency of internet use of each combination of favorability.
| Internet use by double-negatives | ||||||
| Among registered voters | ||||||
| Favorability | Internet use | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almost constantly | Several times a day | About once a day | Several times a week | Less often | n | |
| Fav Biden, Fav Trump | 46 | 27 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 75 |
| Fav Biden, Unfav Trump | 44 | 48 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1,163 |
| Unfav Biden, Fav Trump | 34 | 53 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1,204 |
| Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump | 46 | 43 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 637 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, July 2023-Feb. 2024 | ||||||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? | ||||||
| Question: About how often do you use the internet? | ||||||
Trust in government
Table 14 shows trust in government of each combination of favorability.
| Trust in government by double-negatives | |||||
| Among registered voters | |||||
| Favorability | Trust in government | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Just about always | Most of the time | Only some of the time | Never | n | |
| Fav Biden, Fav Trump | 5 | 37 | 54 | 4 | 75 |
| Fav Biden, Unfav Trump | 2 | 30 | 62 | 5 | 1,163 |
| Unfav Biden, Fav Trump | 1 | 8 | 63 | 28 | 1,204 |
| Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump | 0 | 11 | 72 | 17 | 637 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, July 2023-Feb. 2024 | |||||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? | |||||
| Question: How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington to do what is right? | |||||