Math 125: Epidemiology
Class Schedule
Feedback on Phase 1 of Island Descriptive Study — scroll down to find your group.
Upcoming Days
Three review sessions will be held in Olin-Rice 254 (Math Computer Science Reading Room) in preparation for the end of the semester.
- December 6, Thursday 12:00 Topic: Review of Exam I.
- December 11, Tuesday 11:30 Topic: Review of Confounding, Survival Analysis and Sensitivity and Specificity
- December 13, Thursday 6:30pm Topic: Review for Final Exam.
Course evaluation form
A collection of review questions and a version with the multiple choice answers marked.
Topic: Reform, Improvement
Reading:
In-class:
On Your Own:
- How's your glossary going? link
Final Exam: 1:30-3:30
Course Resources
Final Exam Time: Sat 15 Dec. 1:30-3:30 pm. Make your travel plans accordingly!
Outline and Main Readings:
Background and Goals
- Recommended learning outcomes from the public health consensus report on undergraduate education (pp. 15-16). This course is intended to meet completely the recommended learning outcomes for the model “Epidemiology 101” course.
- AAMC/HHMI report “Scientific Foundations for Future Physicians” (especially pp. 20-24), a set of proposed new pre-med requirements.
- Macalester's EPAG web site on “curricular renewal”. This epidemiology course grew in major part from Macalester's experience leading the QM4PP project supported by the US National Science Foundation and the US Department of Education.
Measuring Health and Disease (4 sessions)
- Essential Epidemiology Ch. 2, 3, 4, 5
- Better, “The score”
Outbreak & Spread of Disease (3 sessions)
Cause and Effect (4 sessions)
Risk (4 sessions)
- Gigerenzer, “Communicating about Risk” (link)
- Know Your Chances, Ch. 5
Detection (4 Sessions)
- Essential Epidemiology, Ch. 14, 15
- Know Your Chances, pp. 89-99
Evaluating Trade-Offs (3 sessions)
Health-Care Reform (2 sessions)
- Better, “The bell curve”, “For performance” & “Afterward”. Extra: “What doctors owe” & “Piecework”
Historical Background (interspersed throughout the course)
- John Barry, ''The Great Influenza'' (entire book)
- BBC show: Melvyn Bragg, In Our Time: The Four Humors (podcast)
Day-by-Day Syllabus
Past Days
Topic: Introduction to epidemiology and the course
Reading:
Assignment:
- Reading Reflection on Epidemiology as a Liberal Art: link
On Your Own:
In-class:
Notes:
Topic: Prevalence, Incidence, Mortality, Life Expectancy
Reading:
Assignment:
- Start your glossary, link
- Reading reflection on “The Score”, link
In Class:
- Incidence and prevalence calculations
Notes:
Topic: Life expectancy, spreadsheet calculations
Reading:
- The Great Influenza, Prologue and Chapters 1 & 2
Assignment:
- Reading reflection on The Great Influenza, link
In-Class:
Topic: Life expectancy (cont), sources of data, surveillance
Reading:
Assignment:
- Reading Reflection on Truth and Death in Iraq, link
On Your Own:
In-class:
Topic: Study Designs
Reading:
Assignment:
On Your Own:
In-class:
Topic: Exposure and disease. Relative risks.
Reading:
Assignment:
- Design your own APGAR score link
- Take a tour around The Island. Come to class prepared to offer a topic for a descriptive study. Then you can identify other class members with whom to form project groups. Get your Island password using your Mac email ID. Then login to the Island.
In Class:
- Life expectancy calculation by hand (to be translated into a spreadsheet for Thursday)
On Your Own: News item: Life expectancy falls
Topic: Measures of Association
Reading:
Assignment:
On Your Own:
In-class:
Topic: Outbreaks!
Reading:
- Essential Epidemiology, Ch. 12, pp. 276-304
- The Great Influenza, pp. 89-116
- The PCAST report (through p. 19) anticipating the H1N1 outbreak three years ago
Assignment:
On Your Own:
In-class:
Topic: SIR Model of Epidemics, Eradication
Reading:
Assignment:
- Reading Reflection on The Cancer Cluster Myth link
- Epiville SARS part 2 and the Google Form for entering your answers. Pay attention to \( R_0 \), the number that features so prominantly in the movie “Contagion”.
On Your Own:
- Plague City: SARS in Toronto. A CTV miniseries about the discovery and response to SARS.
Based on true events and bolstered by extensive research with medical experts, Plague City brings to television the stories of the actual heroes of the SARS crisis: the many health care workers who risked their lives on a daily basis caring for sick and dying patients. At the same time, the CTV movie underscores the struggle of Toronto's public health officials and politicians as they attempted to control the quickly spreading disease, suppress the rising public panic and mitigate the devastating economic repercussions.
In-class:
Topic: Wrapping up the spread of epidemics. The statistics of confidence intervals.
Reading:
- Atul Gawande, Better: “On Washing Up” and “The Mop Up”
- The Great Influenza through p. 195
Assignment:
- Hand in a short sample spreadsheet of data for your Island project. Each group should submit just one spreadsheet, printed on paper, with the names of all members of the group. Then wait for approval from Prof. Kaplan before continuing to collect your whole set of data.
- An interactive tutorial on confidence intervals.
It's surprisingly difficult to find good reading materials on confidence intervals. They are quite simple, but somehow the exposition gets tied up in statistical detail and formulas. This tutorial is not connected to formulas, but doesn't explain why things are the way they are.
I welcome proposals for skits to be made into short videos that would explain things in a fun and informative way to a general audience.
On Your Own:
In-class:
Topic: Chance and Error
Reading:
- Essential Epidemiology Ch. 6 (Chance)
- Essential Epidemiology Ch. 7 (Error)
Assignment:
- Reading reflection: “On Washing Hands” link (N.B. You may have to page up on the target page to find the questions and the link to Moodle.)
- Estimation Problem 2: Dengue Fever. Link to description
- Columbia Epiville exercise on Case-Control Studies. Submit your answers on this Google Form.
- How's your glossary going? link
On Your Own:
In-class:
- Confidence intervals on odds ratios
- Abuse of p-values
Topic:
Reading:
Assignment:
- Spreadsheets with Odds Ratios and Number Needed to Treat, and Population Attributable Fraction. Description here. Your existing spreadsheet is here on Moodle.
On Your Own:
In-class:
- Sample size and statistical power
Topic: Confounding, Cause and Effect (II)
Reading:
Assignment:
After Class
- 8pm showing of Contagion Location: O/R 100
On Your Own:
Topic: Catch up. MID-TERM EXAM (second 45 minutes of class)
Examples of Exam Questions These questions will give you a feel for the style of the questions likely to be asked on the exam. Answers are given here
Study Guide for Exam. In addition to the vocabulary and concepts, you'll be expected to be able to do certain calculations that we have done in class:
- Life expectancy
- Odds ratio and interpretation of confidence intervals
- Prevalence/Incidence
- Relative Risk and Attributable Fraction
In reviewing these calculations, go through the following end-of-chapter problems from the Essential Epidemiology textbook:
- Chapter 2: Probs 1 and 2
- Chapter 5: Probs 1, 2, 3, and 4
A calculation problem on the test will be drawn from these very problems. You'll find answers to the problems in the back of the textbook. For life-expectancy calculations, review Appendix 5 from the book.
- How's your glossary going? link
On Your Own:
In-class:
Fall Break!
Some movies to get your Epi fix while on break:
- Plague City: SARS in Toronto. A CTV miniseries about the discovery and response to SARS. on Netflix
- A comparison of smallpox in Montreal in 1885 and a hypothetical outbreak today. on Netflix
- The Andromeda Strain, a sci-fi classic written by an MD. on Netflix
Topic: Association and Causation
Reading:
Assignment:
On Your Own:
In-class:
Topic: Survival Analysis
Reading:
Assignment:
- Reading Reflection on Survival Analysis link
- How's your glossary going? link
On Your Own:
In-class:
Topic: Risk
Reading:
Assignment:
On Your Own:
In-class:
Topic: Risk II
Reading:
Assignment:
- Reading Reflection on Gigerenzer Sections I and II link
On Your Own:
In-class:
Topic: Risk, stratification of risk, fright factors
Reading:
Assignment:
- Hand in your formal write up of the Island Descriptive Study. Hand in links to both your report and your data spreadsheet(s) on Moodle, here. Everyone in each group should enter into Moodle the names of all members of the group and the link to the files.
On Your Own:
In-class:
- Stratifying risk in familiar events/exposures.
Topic: Detection and Screening
Reading:
Assignment:
On Your Own:
In-class:
- Accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, etc.
Topic: Screening generally. The controversy over mammography and PSA screening.
Reading:
Assignment:
- Essential Epidemiology Chap. 15 end-of-chapter exercises 1, 2, & 3
- Reading reflection on A Deadly Misdiagnosis, link
- How's your glossary going? link
Thanksgiving Break!
Detection and Screening (continued)
Reading:
In Class:
On Your Own
- 2009 NEJM studies on prostate cancer screening in Europe and the US
Topic: Trade-Offs
Reading:
Assignment:
- State topic for Island Project Part 2: The Analytical Topic. Report due Dec 11, the last day of class.
- A probability calculation (You may already have done this. It was originally mistakenly assigned for before Thanksgiving.)
- Reading reflection on bicycle helmets link
In-class:
Topic: Trade-offs
Reading:
Assignment:
- What is health insurance? Your view. link
- Questions on “A possibly fatal mistake.” link
In-class:
On Your Own:
Topic: Health Care Reform
Reading:
In-class: