NOTES ABOUT UKRAINE

SCOPE & ORGANIZATION

This document contains notes and links assembled from readings and analyses I conducted in preparation for the Think Tank’s 28 February 2024 meeting with former Ambassador Thomas W. Simons, Jr.

Brent Pasquinelli will distribute the URL for the Zoom connection to the 28 February meeting (not the same as our usual meeting URL, Think Tank regulars). Contact Brent (brentpasquinelli1@gmail.com), the convener of this meeting, for additional meeting background and detail.

~ DLP

Our Guest: Thomas W. Simons, Jr.

Thomas W. Simons, Jr. served as Ambassador to Poland from 1990 to 1993, and Ambassador to Pakistan from 1996 to 1998. See:

Nomination of Thomas W. Simons, Jr., To Be United States Ambassador to Poland in May 1990. This document is held among the Public Papers of the Presidential Library and Museum of George H.W.Bush
Thomas W. Simons, Jr. A Wikipedia biography of former Ambassador Simons.
Thomas W. Simons, Jr. (1938 -). A record of former Ambassador Simon’s career foreign service compiled by the Office of the Historian, U.S. Department of State.
Richard Nixon’s ‘crazy’ idea: Make befriending the Chinese Communist Party his legacy. A 2022 article with a link to an audio version of a WBUR Radio (Boston) story about the role played by former Ambassador Simons as a political officer during the cat-and-mouse games played to seize opportunities to negotiate with the Chinese, in what is described as The Great Wager, to establish Richard Nixon’s foreign policy legacy. Teaser: Action takes place at a fashion show.
Thomas W. Simons, Jr. A transcript of a 2004 interview with former Ambassador Simons by Charles Stuart Kennedy for The Association for Diplomatic Studies and Training, Foreign Affairs Oral History Project.
Mutually Assured Destruction, South Asian Style. An article authored by former Ambassador Simons published in Hoover Digest in 2000.

But, First, A Roadmap To These Notes

Mapped in Figure 1 is the structure of my notes captured in this document. My notes are organized into topics under three main headings: (1) Ukraine, In Brief – I summarize some key features about the country; (2) The War – I write a brief narrative about the war and, then, list pre–invasion and post–invasion events in the execution of Putin’s war, and (3) AI–Generated Questions – I report responses of artificial intelligence tools—Google Gemini, ChatGPT, Perplexity—to a simple prompt, List three of the most important questions about Ukraine.

Structure of Notes — Figure 1: Document Roadmap

You might judge that my notes miss essential points or lack necessary detail, but they are foreshortened by necessity. I simply could not compile information about Ukraine in any expansive, comprehensive, encyclopedic manner in the time available to prepare for our meeting. Transcribed in this document, therefore, are notes made from the readings I could find and complete. To remove the academic clutter from the main text of this document, but to make sources available to you, I relegated to footnotes certain reference information and brief details from works I consulted. Footnotes are located at the bottom of the document section of text in which footnote superscripts were inserted rather than at the end of the document. Let your eye jump over these footnotes if they do not interest you.

Send me email to suggest information you believe I should add or correct to improve my understanding of Ukraine and its current situation. I will update this document with verified corrections and valuable additions that I can include in the time I can devote to this project. Displayed in the top header of this document is the most recent release date for these notes.

ukraine, in brief

Information about the features of the country of Ukraine is summarized in this major section of my notes. I group general information about Ukraine around the following key elements: the land, history, culture, economy, population and migration, and the structure of government. Although I devote the subsequent major section of this document to notes I gathered about the war itself, for coherence, I found it necessary to integrate references to the effects of the war in this current section.

The Land

I summarize my notes about Ukrainian physical features of geography, topography, and resources.

Geography

Ukraine is located in Eastern Europe (see Figure 2). Ukraine’s 4,345-mile international border is adjacent to Moldova, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Belarus, Russia (its longest border contiguous with another country, 1,282 miles), and Romania. Most of these borders were inherited by Ukraine from the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic after the collapse of the former Soviet Union.

The country also has a maritime border in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea, where Ukraine has an Exclusive Economic Zone.¹ The maritime border is 842 miles long and is shared with Romania and (mostly) Russia. Ukraine is separated from Russia by the Kerch Strait, which connects the Sea of Azov to the Black Sea. The 1936 Montreax Convention² covering the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits connecting the Black Sea to the Mediterranean Sea specifies unlimited Mediterranean access to countries on the Black Sea.

Lying between latitudes 44° and 53° N, and longitudes 22° and 41° E, Ukraine covers an area of 233,062 mi². In 2014, Russia covertly invaded and illegally annexed Crimea (an internationally unrecognized annexation³). Crimea is a peninsula connected to the main Ukrainian land mass by the Isthmus of Perekop, a 3.1–4.3 mile-wide strategically important strip of land where many battles over land and resources have occurred throughout history and most recently. Ukraine continues to claim sovereignty over the Crimean peninsula.

The video displayed in Figure 3 describes the effect of geography on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Figure 3: Geography’s Effect on the Invasion of Ukraine
Institute for World Politics video (10 min, 44 secs)

An Exclusive Economic Zone is an area of the sea in which a sovereign state has exclusive rights regarding the exploration and use of marine resources, including energy production from water and wind, but does not include ownership of maritime features (islands, rocks and low-tide elevations).↩︎
The 1936 Montreax Convention regarding the Regime of the Straits is a United Nations agreement concerning the Dardanelles strait, the Sea of Marmara, and and the Bosporus strait. Unlimited access is designated for countries on the Sea, but countries not adjacent to the Sea may sail ships in for short stints and limited by ship size.↩︎
The annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014 was a significant geopolitical event that followed a complex series of political and historical developments. Crimea, a peninsula on the northern coast of the Black Sea, has a long history of conflict and changing relationships with Russia and Ukraine. After the ousting of President Viktor Yanukovych. Russian troops, often referred to as “little green men,” entered Crimea and seized key government buildings. A controversial referendum was held, in which the majority of voters favored joining Russia. The annexation was widely criticized by Western governments, leading to the imposition of economic sanctions on Russia. The annexation of Crimea allowed Russia to gain control of vital energy assets and strategically important naval bases. The event was characterized by political manipulation and deep-rooted historical and cultural tensions between Russia and Ukraine. A Brookings essay, “Crimea: Six years after illegal annexation,” contains a review of the annexation and its consequences.↩︎

Topography & Features

Topographically, Ukraine is divided into an area of level plains and a mountainous region (see Figure 4). Much of central Ukraine is covered by plateaus and fertile plains (aka steppes), which are somewhat hilly areas of grasslands and shrublands. Mountains constitute about 5% of Ukraine’s land mass. The northern reaches of the Carpathian Mountains are located in the southwestern corner of Western Ukraine. The Crimean Mountains run parallel to the southeastern coast of Crimea. Mountains constitute about 5% of Ukraine’s land mass. Ukraine has a comparatively low average elevation of 574 feet above sea level. The highest mountain peak (Hoverla⁴) is 6,762 feet high.

Topographic map of Ukraine — Figure 4: Topographic Map of Ukraine

Approximately 23,000 rivers flow in Ukraine. Most of the country’s rivers drain into the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov⁵ and are part of the larger Mediterranean basin.⁶ The country’s longest and Europe’s fourth longest river is the 1,350-mile transboundary Dnieper⁷ that travels from central Russia to the port city of Kherson. Hydroelectric stations on the Dnieper have produced as much as 10% of electricity consumed in Ukraine.⁸ The river suffers pollution from agriculture fertilizers and wastes and is susceptible to leakage of radioactive waste.⁹ Segments of the Dnieper River have acted as part of the defensive lines between territory controlled by Russians and Ukrainians since the 2022 Russian invasion.

Resources

A video prepared by the Good Times Bad Times group before the outbreak of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, shown in Figure 5 is an overview of rich Ukrainian resources that are described as being “hidden in plain sight.”

Figure 5: Ukraine Sits On Raw Materials Worth Trillions. The Country’s Chance for Reconstruction?
Video (16 min, 46 secs) by GTBT, “creating Video Reports on Geopolitics | Economy | Technology.”

Ukraine holds a wealth of resources within its diverse landscape. From fertile farmlands feeding the world to mineral deposits fueling industry, these resources have shaped the country’s economic and geopolitical landscape for centuries (see resource map in Figure 6). However, these very riches have also become a focal point of conflict, particularly in the ongoing war with Russia. Also, although Ukraine possesses valuable natural resources, it faces challenges in their sustainable management. Environmental issues, including soil degradation, water pollution, and air pollution, require attention and concerted efforts.

Map of Natural Resources in Ukranian Regions — Figure 6: Natural Resources in Ukrainian Regions

agriculture

Stretching across fertile black soil regions known as chernozems,¹⁰ Ukraine boasts some of the most productive agricultural land in the world, which is a reason that Ukraine is termed the “breadbasket of Europe.” The World Economic Forum¹¹ indicated that Ukraine is one of the world’s top exporters of staple grains (see Table 1). The World Food Programme (WTF)¹² received 40% of its wheat from Ukraine before the war.¹³ Now the WTF provides food to Ukraine.

Table 1: Ukraine’s top agricultural exports
(World Economic Forum 2021 Estimates)

Food Exported (ordered by dollar value)	Share of Global Exports	Rank Among Global Exporters
Sunflower oil	46%	1st
Corn	12%	4th
Wheat	9%	5th
Rapeseed¹⁴	20%	3rd
Barley	17%	3rd

Many nations depend on food exports from Ukraine (see Figure 7).The war’s disruptions of Ukraine’s supply of foods to the world not only will affect prosperous European nations. But, many poorer nations in the Middle East and Africa also rely on Ukrainian wheat and corn. The war’s impact of Ukrainian agriculture creates the specter of wide-ranging food insecurity.

Top importers of grain from Ukraine — Figure 7: Importers, 2020-2021

Agriculture underpins the livelihoods of millions of Ukrainians and constitutes a significant portion of the national economy. Yet, the war has severely disrupted agricultural production, impacting global food security and highlighting the vulnerability of this crucial resource.

minerals

Beyond its farmlands, Ukraine hides a treasure trove of minerals. It holds the world’s largest deposits of manganese ore, critical for steel production, and ranks among the top five producers of titanium, used in aerospace and other industries. The country also boasts rich reserves of iron ore, uranium, lithium, and rare earth elements crucial for the burgeoning green technology sector. Coal has been historically a critical Ukraine fossil fuel industry.¹⁵ Ukraine was ranked 10th in the world in 2019 for reserves of uranium and 9th in historical uranium production by 2014.¹⁶ The country’s mineral wealth fuels domestic industries and attracts foreign investment, but also fuels potential exploitation and environmental concerns.

energy

Ukraine sits at a crucial intersection of energy pipelines, historically serving as a transit route for Russian gas to Europe.¹⁷ However, the country boasts substantial natural gas reserves of its own and had been making strides towards energy independence before the war with the Russian Federation. Additionally, Ukraine holds vast potential for renewable energy, particularly solar and wind power. Navigating the complex energy landscape, balancing regional dependence with diversification and sustainability, remains a key challenge.

biodiversity

Ukraine’s diverse ecosystems, ranging from the Carpathian Mountains to the Black Sea coast, contribute to its rich biodiversity.¹⁸ The country is home to various plant and animal species, some unique to the region. Conservation efforts are crucial to preserving this biodiversity, and initiatives had been underway pre-war to protect natural habitats and promote sustainable practices.

significant resource issues: the war…the war…the war

Although Ukraine’s natural resources offer immense potential, a “resource curse”¹⁹ hangs heavy. Unequal distribution of resource wealth can exacerbate inequality and fuel corruption. Additionally, dependence on specific resources creates vulnerability to price fluctuations and the potential for external manipulation. The current conflict with Russia exemplifies this dependency, with resource-rich areas becoming major battlegrounds and control over resources being a strategic objective.

The war in Ukraine is the 800-lb gorilla in the room. It has had a catastrophic impact on the country’s natural resources, exacerbating existing problems and creating new ones. The full effects of the war on Ukraine’s natural resources are still unfolding, and the long-term consequences will likely be felt for years to come.

Fighting has severely disrupted the planting, harvesting, and transportation of agricultural products. Millions of acres of land are unusable due to mines, unexploded ordnance, and military activity. The war has led to food shortages and rising prices within Ukraine and contributed to global food insecurity, particularly for wheat and corn. Infrastructure damage, soil contamination, and displacement of farmers will affect agricultural productivity for years to come.

Russia has seized areas rich in minerals like iron ore, manganese, and rare earth elements, potentially exploiting them to finance its war effort. Power plants, gas pipelines, and refineries have been targeted, affecting domestic energy supply and potentially fueling further environmental damage. Mineral and energy exports have significantly dropped due to infrastructure damage and sanctions, impacting the economy and contributing to global energy price fluctuations.

Forests are being cleared for military purposes and fuel, leading to habitat loss and soil erosion. Pollution from military activity and damaged infrastructure threatens water quality and access for millions of Ukrainians. The war disrupts ecosystems and threatens endangered species. Long-term ecological consequences are certain.

The war has caused significant environmental damage, with long-term consequences for air, water, and soil quality. Disruptions to resource extraction, processing, and exports have severely impacted the Ukrainian economy, hindering recovery efforts. Air and water pollution, coupled with unexploded ordnance and hazardous materials, pose significant health risks to Ukrainians.

Rebuilding Ukraine’s resource sector will require significant international support and investment, focusing on sustainability and responsible resource management. Decontamination, ecosystem restoration, and transitioning to renewable energy sources are crucial for long-term environmental health. Addressing the underlying causes of the war, including resource control and inequality, is essential for ensuring lasting peace and sustainable development in Ukraine.

Tapestry of History

Ukraine’s history is a tapestry woven with threads of triumph and tragedy, resilience and resistance. From the ancient roots of Kyivan Rus to the struggles for independence and the contemporary challenges, Ukraine’s journey reflects the intricate interplay of cultural, political, and geopolitical forces. The Economist published “A short history of Russia and Ukraine” which critically examines, with maps, Putin’s tortured understanding of Ukraine’s provenance. I made a copy of this document available for you to download as an Adobe PDF file.

In this part of this document, I digest my notes about Ukraine’s ancient roots, a period of Mongolian domination and Cossack rebellion, the creation of a Cossack state, 18th-century imperial struggles, turmoil in the 20th century, and, last, Ukrainian independence and modern challenges. Exhibited in Figure 8 is a video outlining briefly (if that is possible) the history of Ukraine, 1197-1992.

Figure 8: Borderlands | An Animated History of Ukraine
Suibhn video (17 min, 1 sec)

Ancient Roots

The history of Ukraine can be traced back to ancient times when the region was inhabited by various nomadic tribes and early agricultural communities. The Scythians, Sarmatians, and Huns²⁰ left their imprint on the land by contributing to Ukraine’s cultural mosaic. The medieval state of Kyivan Rus,²¹ established in the 9th century, played a crucial role in shaping the region’s identity. Kyiv (or is that Kiev?²²), its capital, emerged as a center of trade, culture, and religion, connecting Eastern and Western Europe.

Mongol Domination & Cossack Era

In the 13th century, the Mongols²³ invaded Kyivan Rus, subjugating the region for nearly two centuries. This period of Mongol domination left a lasting impact on Ukraine, influencing its political structure and social dynamics. However, by the mid-17th century, the Cossacks,²⁴ a distinct warrior class, rose to prominence. Led by charismatic leaders such as Bohdan Khmelnytsky,²⁵ the Cossacks rebelled against both Polish and Russian rule, seeking autonomy for Ukraine.

“Mongols” became an umbrella term for Mongolic-speaking tribes united under the rule of Genghis Khan in the 13th century. “At its peak, the Mongol Empire covered the most contiguous territory in history https://www.nationalgeographic.com/culture/article/mongols.”↩︎
The Cossacks were a predominantly East Slavic Orthodox Christian people who originated in the Pontic–Caspian steppe of eastern Ukraine and southern Russia. They were known for their military lifestyle and initially led a semi-nomadic existence, living around the lower bends of the Dnieper River. The term “Cossack” is derived from a Turkish word meaning “free man.” They were organized into military communities and played a significant role in defending the Russian frontier and later in the territorial expansion of the Russian Empire. The Cossacks’ history and identity were influenced by their geography, the politics and social forces of the regions they inhabited, and their own self-fashioning. See detailed description in Britannica.↩︎
Brief Khmelnytsky bio.↩︎

The Cossack Hetmanate

The Treaty of Pereyaslav²⁶ in 1654 marked a pivotal moment for Ukraine, establishing a degree of autonomy under Russian suzerainty.²⁷ This led to the creation of the Cossack Hetmanate,²⁸ a semi-autonomous state within the Russian Empire. However, this autonomy was short-lived, as Ukraine became a battleground in the ongoing conflicts between Russia, Poland, and the Ottoman Empire.

Imperial Struggles & Division

The 18th century witnessed a series of partitions that divided Ukraine among Russia, Austria, and Poland. This era of imperial struggles further fragmented the Ukrainian territories, leading to the suppression of the Ukrainian language and culture. Nevertheless, a sense of national identity persisted among the Ukrainian people, fueled by cultural and religious ties.

The 20th Century: Turmoil & Independence

The 20th century brought unprecedented challenges and opportunities for Ukraine. The aftermath of World War I and the Russian Revolution allowed Ukraine to declare its independence in 1918 briefly. However, this new-found sovereignty was short-lived, as the country soon became a battleground during the Russian Civil War. Eventually, Ukraine was incorporated into the Soviet Union in 1922.

World War II & The Holodomor

World War II brought further devastation to Ukraine, with Nazi occupation leading to mass atrocities and the infamous Holodomor²⁹ – a human-made famine orchestrated by Joseph Stalin, resulting in the deaths of millions of Ukrainians. The post-war era saw Ukraine as a vital Soviet republic, contributing significantly to the USSR’s industrial and agricultural output.

Independence & Contemporary Challenges

The winds of change swept across Eastern Europe in the late 20th century, culminating in the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. Ukraine declared its independence, embarking on a journey of nation-building. However, the path to stability has been fraught with challenges, including economic struggles, political upheavals, and tensions with Russia, particularly evident in the annexation of Crimea in 2014.

A Kaleidoscope Of Culture

Ukraine’s cultural heritage is a mosaic that reflects the influences of various civilizations, its agrarian roots, and its people’s deep connection to traditions and folklore. I touch lightly on cultural themes influenced by history, language and literature, folk traditions and celebrations, arts and crafts, cuisine, role of religion, and modern turmoil.

Historical Influences On Culture

Ukraine’s cultural heritage is a mosaic reflecting various civilizations’ influences, agrarian roots, and people’s deep connection to traditions and folklore. The ancient roots of Kyivan Rus laid the foundation for Ukrainian culture, with its capital, Kyiv, serving as a nexus for trade, religion, and art. The Mongol invasion, Cossack era, and imperial partitions introduced new layers to the cultural fabric, each leaving an indelible mark on Ukrainian identity.

Language & Literature

The Ukrainian language is a cornerstone of the nation’s culture, serving as a vehicle for preserving and expressing its unique identity. Ukrainian literature, dating back to medieval times with works like “The Tale of Igor’s Campaign,³⁰” has played a crucial role in shaping the national consciousness. Writers like Taras Shevchenko³¹ and Ivan Franko³² are celebrated as literary giants who championed Ukrainian language and culture during times of suppression. Among prominent contemporary Ukrainian writers and poets are Serhiy Zhadan, Oksana Zabuzhko, and Andrey Kurkov.³³

Folk Traditions & Celebrations

Ukraine is renowned for its colorful and diverse folk traditions, with elaborate customs passed down through generations. Traditional music, dance, and vibrant costumes are central elements of Ukrainian celebrations. The annual festival of Ivan Kupala,³⁴ celebrating the summer solstice, showcases traditional rituals, songs, and dances, highlighting the deep connection between Ukrainians and the cycles of nature.

Visual Arts & Crafts

Ukraine’s visual arts and crafts are a testament to its creativity and craftsmanship. Iconography, a tradition dating back to the Byzantine influence, is a distinctive form of religious art in Ukraine. The intricate Pysanky,³⁵ beautifully decorated Easter eggs, are another manifestation of the nation’s artistic prowess. Renowned painters like Kazimir Malevich³⁶ and Ivan Aivazovsky³⁷ have left an indelible mark on the global art scene, embodying Ukraine’s contribution to visual arts. Maria Primachenko³⁸ was a Ukrainian village folk artist involved with drawing, embroidery and painting on ceramics. Ali Mohammed is a prominent Ukrainian Muslim landscape painter.³⁹

Cuisine

Ukrainian cuisine is a delectable fusion of flavors, reflecting the country’s agrarian roots and the diverse influences it has absorbed over the centuries. Borscht,⁴⁰ a beetroot-based soup, pierogi,⁴¹ and varenyky (dumplings)⁴² are iconic Ukrainian dishes that have become beloved staples. The communal aspect of sharing meals is deeply ingrained in Ukrainian culture, fostering a sense of community and connection.

Religious Diversity

Religion has played a significant role in shaping Ukrainian culture. While Orthodox Christianity is predominant, Ukraine is home to various religious communities, including Greek Catholics, Roman Catholics, and Jewish communities. Islam has had a significant place in Ukrainian culture.⁴³This religious diversity has contributed to a multicultural tapestry, enriching the cultural landscape with different traditions, rituals, and architectural styles.

Modern Cultural Expression

In contemporary Ukraine, cultural expression continues to evolve, blending tradition with modern influences. The country’s music scene encompasses a wide range of genres, from traditional folk to contemporary pop and rock. Ukrainian cinema, with directors like Sergei Paradjanov⁴⁴ and Oles Sanin,⁴⁵ has gained international acclaim. The fusion of traditional elements with modern aesthetics is evident in the work of contemporary artists, designers, and performers.

Population & Migration

A 1970 book, The Real Majority,⁴⁶ popularized the phrase, “Demography is destiny,” that is widely attributed⁴⁷ to 19–century French philosopher Auguste Comte. If demography is this dominant, Ukraine’s destiny became perilous after the 2022 invasion by the Russian Federation.

Before The 2022 Invasion

Before the 2022 invasion, Ukraine’s population presented a complex picture marked by both positive and negative trends. As of January 2022, estimates varied between 41.9 million and 48.5 million, depending on methodologies and excluding disputed territories like Crimea. Over 60% of the population lived in urban areas, with Kyiv, Kharkiv,⁴⁸ Dnipro,⁴⁹ and Odesa⁵⁰ forming major centers. Population density varied across regions, with eastern and southern parts being more densely populated than the west.

Like many European countries, Ukraine faced an aging population. The median age was around 40 years, and the share of older people (i.e., 65+ years old) was increasing steadily. Birth rates had declined for decades, leading to a shrinking population even before the conflict, as shown in Figure 9. This decline was partly attributed to economic challenges and emigration. Internal migration from eastern regions affected by the 2014 conflict contributed to population shifts within the country.

Figure 9: Fertility in Ukraine & Russia Through 2022

Skilled professionals and young people, often seeking better opportunities and stability, emigrated at a concerning rate, leading to a “brain drain.” Disparities in population growth and economic opportunities existed between eastern and western regions.

After The 2022 Invasion

Ukraine has posted significant population declines for over 30 years. The country’s population shrunk by an average of over 300,000 annually since 1993 (see Figure 10). However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has had a profound impact on the country’s population. According to a study analyzing the effect of the invasion on Ukraine’s population, the population could decline by a third over the next two decades as a result of the war.⁵¹

Ukrainian population — Figure 10: Total Ukrainian Population, Past & Projected

The ongoing Ukrainian refugee crisis and loss of territory caused by Russia’s invasion have led to a significant decline in the populations of Kyiv-controlled areas (see differences evident in Figure 11 between population if estimated with 1991 or 2022 Ukrainian borders). Estimates suggest a decrease to as low as 28 million as of July 2023, down from almost 42 million in 2020.⁵² The war has also deepened Ukraine’s demographic crisis, with significant population losses and a steep decline in fertility rates.⁵³

Border restrictions on population — Figure 11: Ukrainian Population Estimated With 1991 & 2022 Borders

The authors of The War and the Future of Ukraine’s Population conducted a series of population projections with different assumptions about the number of casualties and refugees, and the refugees’ likelihood of return by different political scenarios. Their projections show that, if current demographic trends continue, Ukraine’s population is projected to decline by 16% over the next two decades and to become older. These trends are largely driven by past and current demographic developments of continued very low fertility and large-scale emigration starting at the turn of the century.↩︎
A Wikipedia page contains links to a large number and wide variety of demographic analyses of the Ukrainian population.↩︎
Ukraine’s Demography in the Second Year of the Full-Fledged War provide fertility estimates and describes the difficulty of obtaining demographic data from war-torn Ukraine.↩︎

Economy

Charles Dickens opened his 1859 novel, A Tale of Two Cities, by writing, “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.” He meant best/worst co-occurring. For Ukraine, in contrast, the “best” economy in recent times happened before the country’s invasion by the Russian Federation. Putin’s war, then, most certainly created the “worst” of Ukrainian economic times. The differences in the Ukrainian economy pre– and post–invasion could not be more stark and dispiriting.

A Portrait Before The Storm Of War

Understanding Ukraine’s pre-invasion economic landscape is crucial for comprehending the devastating impact of the 2022 invasion and the immense task of reconstruction and recovery this war will pose. Growth, income levels, and inflation generally demonstrated positive trends in the pre-invasion economy, but challenges like inequality, regional disparities, and external risks persisted.

Before the 2022 invasion by the Russian Federation, Ukraine’s economy displayed encouraging signs of progress, despite lingering challenges. Emerging from the conflict with Russia in 2014, Ukraine embarked on a path of reforms. Macroeconomic stability improved, with inflation falling from double digits in 2015 to single digits by 2020. The government implemented anti-corruption measures, attracting foreign investment and boosting business confidence.

With Ukraine’s fertile black soil, agriculture was a cornerstone of the economy, making Ukraine one of the world’s top wheat and corn exporters. Fueled by a highly skilled workforce and competitive wage rates, the IT sector emerged as a rising star to contribute significantly to exports. Additionally, Ukraine boasted a sizable industrial base, with steel and other metals playing a vital role.

Despite progress, significant hurdles remained. Oligarchic influence, though diminished, still cast a shadow over some sectors. Corruption, while tackled, continued to be a concern. Infrastructure, particularly in eastern regions, suffered from years of under-investment. The conflict with Russia in the Donbas region posed an ongoing security threat and economic burden. Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and consequent sanctions impacted trade and investment.

The 2014 conflict significantly impacted Ukraine’s economy, causing GDP to shrink by 20%. Internal population displacement, infrastructure damage, and disrupted trade routes hampered recovery. The International Monetary Fund estimated that the conflict cost Ukraine $270 billion in lost output by 2020.

Despite economic progress, income inequality remained high. The eastern regions, particularly those affected by the conflict, lagged behind the west in terms of development and living standards. Poverty, though declining, still affected a significant portion of the population.

Some relevant economic numbers characterizing the Ukrainian economy during this pre-invasion period:

GDP - From 2016 to 2021, Ukraine’s GDP grew steadily, averaging around 3.4% annually. This upward trend indicated gradual economic recovery after the 2014 conflict. In 2021, Ukraine’s GDP reached $200.5 billion, placing it 59th globally. Although significant, Ukraine’s economic position remained lower than pre-2014 levels due to the impact of the 2014 conflict. Agriculture (11.4%), industry (21.3%), and services (63.6%) were the main contributors to GDP. The IT sector, within services, saw a remarkable rise, becoming a key export earner.
Personal Income – Compared to developed nations, average personal income was lower, around $6,500 annually in 2021. However, personal income showed steady growth from previous years. The wealthiest 10% held over 40% of national income, highlighting income disparity. Income levels varied significantly across regions. Eastern regions that were affected by the 2014 conflict, struggled with lower wages and higher poverty rates than the west.
Inflation – After reaching double digits in 2015, inflation gradually stabilized. By 2021, inflation stood at 5.4%, considered manageable and contributing to economic stability. Although inflation was generally controlled, certain areas like utilities and food staples experienced higher price rises, disproportionately affecting low-income groups. Global events like the pandemic and oil price fluctuations temporarily impacted inflation and stimulated adjustments by Ukraine’s central bank.

After 24 February 2022: Плисти по вді – “to float on water,” i.e., a difficult or dangerous situation…as Americans might idiomatically describe “going to hell in a handbasket”

The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine has had a devastating impact on the country’s economy. The Ukrainian economy entered deep recession, and widespread damage still is being inflicted. Because the war’s trajectory and long-term economic consequences remain uncertain, so recovery efforts are even more challenging. Rebuilding Ukraine’s economy will require substantial international support and investment. The International Monetary Fund estimates that the cost of reconstruction could reach $349 billion. Attracting investment and ensuring efficient use of resources will require reforms to combat corruption and improve governance.

Estimates suggest a staggering 30% contraction in Ukrainian GDP in 2022 compared to pre-war levels. This decline is one of the most severe economic contractions recently witnessed. Agriculture, industry, and services – all major contributors to GDP – have been heavily impacted. Infrastructure destruction, disrupted trade, and displacement of people have crippled economic activity.

The World Bank estimates that poverty in Ukraine increased from 5.5% to 24.2% in 2022. This increase translates to roughly 7 million more people struggling to meet basic needs. Many workplaces have shut down or experienced significant disruptions. Widespread unemployment and wage reductions have occurred, disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations. The millions of Ukrainians internally displaced due to the conflict face added financial hardships. Government resources, social safety nets, and international humanitarian aid are strained.

War–related disruptions to supply chains and agricultural production have driven up prices of essential goods such as food and fuel. To finance war efforts and support citizens, the Ukrainian government has increased money printing, resulting in additional inflationary pressure. Rising inflation erodes the purchasing power of citizens, which further exacerbates economic hardship.

Damaged and destroyed bridges, roads, factories, and other vital infrastructure require rebuilding. The invasion by the Russian Federation created immense uncertainty that deters foreign and domestic investment crucial for economic recovery. Skilled professionals fleeing the conflict generates a loss and a long-term challenge to the stock of human capital of Ukraine and further hampers economic recovery and growth.

Structure Of Government

Ukraine is the second-largest country in Europe after Russia. Kyiv is the nation’s capital and largest city, followed by Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Odesa. Ukraine’s official language is Ukrainian. Russian is also widely spoken, especially in the east and south. With the dissolution of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics in December 1991, Ukraine gained full independence and helped to found the Commonwealth of Independent States, an association of countries that were formerly republics of the Soviet Union. Ukraine is a founding member of the United Nations.

After presenting an overview of Ukrainian government organization, I summarize the roles of the President, Prime Minister, Parliament, courts, and regional authorities.

Administrative Overview

The administrative structure of the government of Ukraine⁵⁴ reflects its status as a unitary semi-presidential republic. This system combines elements of both presidential and parliamentary governance, distributing powers between the President, the Verkhovna Rada (aka parliament), and the Prime Minister. Recent amendments to the Constitution ⁵⁵have strengthened the presidency at the expense of other branches, particularly the Ukrainian parliament.

President

Citizens ≥18 years old may vote. At the apex of Ukraine’s administrative structure is the President, who serves as the head of state and is elected by popular vote for a five-year term. The President⁵⁶ plays a crucial role in foreign policy and represents Ukraine internationally. The President can initiate legislation. Both the president and Verkhovna Rada (a parliament; described subsequently) have veto power over legislation, creating a check on each other’s authority.

Prime Minister

A Prime Minister,⁵⁷ appointed by the President, is the head of government and leads the Cabinet of Ministers⁵⁸. The Cabinet is appointed by the President with the consent of the legislature, each Minister responsible for a specific government department. The Prime Minister formulates government policies, oversees the implementation of laws, and represents the executive branch in interactions with the Verkhovna Rada. The Cabinet plays a central role in the day-to-day administration of the country, managing various sectors such as finance, defense, foreign affairs, and more.

Parliament: Verkhovna Rada

The Verkhovna Rada⁵⁹ is the unicameral parliament of Ukraine and holds significant legislative powers. Ukrainian citizens elect the 450 members of the Verkhovna Rada through a proportional representation system. The parliament is responsible for making laws, approving the state budget, and overseeing the actions of the executive branch. It also plays a crucial role in the approval of key appointments, including the Prime Minister and members of the Cabinet of Ministers.

Constitutional Court

Ukraine has a Constitutional Court responsible for interpreting the constitution and resolving constitutional disputes. The judiciary is independent and includes a system of courts that handle civil, criminal, and administrative cases. The highest court is the Supreme Court of Ukraine, which provides final interpretations of the law.

Regions

Ukraine is divided into various administrative units, which include oblasts (regions; see below), cities, districts, and villages. Residents elect local government bodies which are responsible for managing local affairs, infrastructure, education, healthcare, and other matters. The administrative decentralization process in recent years aimed to empower local authorities and enhance their ability to address the specific needs of their communities.

Ukraine is divided into 24 provinces called oblasts⁶⁰ (see Figure 13), one autonomous republic (Crimea, although this is a subject of dispute due to Russia’s annexation), and two independent cities with special oblast status—Kyiv, the capital, and Sevastopol in disputed Crimea. Each oblast has its own administrative center and local government structures.

Figure 13: Map of Ukraine, Showing Oblasts

the war

After presenting a narrative summary of Putin’s war to date, I list timelines of major pre-invasion events starting in 2014 and after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine beginning in 2022. These timelines are not exhaustive, but are more of an outline of major milestones. Also, the course of the war continues, is dynamic and is constantly shifting. As a consequence, the story of this war remains incomplete.

Brief Narrative History, 2014-2022

The current war in Ukraine began on 24 February 2022, when Russia launched a full-scale invasion of the country. The invasion followed a period of escalating tensions between the two countries, which began in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea by Russia and the outbreak of fighting in eastern astern Ukraine between Ukrainian government forces and Russian-backed separatists.

In the early days of the current war, Russian forces made rapid advances, capturing key cities and towns in southern and eastern Ukraine. However, they were soon met with fierce resistance from the Ukrainian military and civilians. This resistance slowed the Russian advance and forced a change in tactics.

As the war progressed, it became clear that Russia’s initial goal of overthrowing the Ukrainian government and installing a pro-Russian regime was not achievable. Instead, the war settled into a grinding stalemate, with both sides suffering heavy losses. In recent months, some signs of progress are evident towards a ceasefire or peace agreement. However, the fighting continues. Unclear are the duration of the war and its outcome.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to have a severe impact on human and physical capital, and the environment, with loss of life, drop in living standards and rise in poverty, as well as damage to infrastructure. Nevertheless, the International Monetary Fund characterizes the Ukrainian people as “resilient, and the authorities’ skillful policy-making and continued external support have helped support macroeconomic and financial stability.”⁶¹

Pre-Invasion, 2014-2022

November 2013: Euromaidan⁶² protests erupt in Ukraine against pro-Russian president.
February 2014: Russia annexes Crimea after Yanukovych⁶³ flees Ukraine.
April 2014: War breaks out in Eastern Ukraine between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists.⁶⁴
December 2021: Russia demands security guarantees from NATO, including no Ukraine membership.
January-February 2022: Russia amasses troops on the Ukrainian border.

The Euromaidan, also known as the Maidan Uprising, was a series of protests and civil unrest that took place in Ukraine from 21 November 2013 to 22 February 2014. The protests were initially sparked by then-president Viktor Yanukovych’s decision not to sign an agreement that would have strengthened ties with the European Union. However, the demonstrations evolved into a broader rejection of injustice, corruption, and nepotism in Ukrainian politics and society. The protests culminated in the ousting of President Yanukovych and the election of Petro Poroshenko as president. The movement had a significant cultural impact, leading to a stronger sense of national identity and unity among Ukrainians. (See “Understanding Ukraine’s Euromaidan Protests”)↩︎
“Who is Viktor Yanukovych?….”↩︎
Primarily the People’s Militias of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and the Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR), were pro-Russian paramilitaries in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine (Wikipedia article describing).↩︎

Full-Scale Invasion, 24 February 2022 - Present

February 24: Russia launches a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, attacking major cities.
March-April 2022: Heavy fighting around Kyiv, Kharkiv, and other cities. Ukrainian forces resist fiercely.
April 2022: Russia withdraws from Kyiv region, focuses on Eastern Ukraine.
May-June 2022: Russia captures key city of Severodonetsk⁶⁵ in Eastern Ukraine.
July-August 2022: Stalemate in Eastern Ukraine, heavy shelling continues.
September 2022: Ukrainian counteroffensive recaptures significant territory in Kharkiv region.
October-November 2022: Renewed Russian offensive in Eastern Ukraine, limited gains.
December 2022: Stalemate and heavy fighting across Eastern Ukraine
February 2023: Russia launches new offensive in Eastern Ukraine, slow progress.
June-August 2023: Ukrainian counteroffensive recaptures parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.
September-November 2023: Ukrainian counteroffensive stalls, heavy fighting continues.
December 2023 - Present: Stalemate and winter offensives by both sides in Eastern Ukraine. Ongoing humanitarian crisis and international sanctions against Russia.

Shown in Figure 14 is a brief video description of the war based on a 12 February 2024 report.

Figure 14: Ukrainians face second anniversary of Russian invasion amid death and destruction
Euronews video (2 min, 46 secs)

Current Situation

The Institute for the Study of War⁶⁶ produces high-fidelity and, where possible, street-level daily offensive campaign assessments⁶⁷ of critical events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine. Also, the Institute leads an effort to provide 3-D, interactive and time-lapse maps.⁶⁸ of war progress. The Black Bird Group tweets⁶⁹ information “Currently focused on following and analyzing the Russian invasion of Ukraine.” Project Owl OSINT⁷⁰ continuously updates a Ukraine Control Map.⁷¹ Various news sources offer live coverage of the war.⁷²

ai–generated questions

What are some questions about Ukraine to guide our discussion on 28 February? I sought help from generative artificial intelligence.

I submitted the following simple prompt to Google Gemini, ChatGPT, and Perplexity generative artificial intelligence tools driven by large language models⁷³ that process natural language⁷⁴ using deep neural networks:⁷⁵ List three of the most important questions about Ukraine.

Perhaps the sets of questions generated from this query these three artificial intelligence tools can stimulate your thinking about Ukraine’s current situation as you prepare for our Think Tank Zoom meeting with former Ambassador Simons. I report the responses in haec verba from the large language models, as you probably will perceive, are written in the voice of each model.

By Google Gemini

Gemini writes:

The “most important” questions about Ukraine can vary depending on your perspective and interests. However, here are three key questions with broad significance:

What are the immediate and long-term humanitarian needs in Ukraine, and how can the international community effectively respond? This question encompasses the human cost of the war, including displacement, healthcare needs, food security, and mental health support. It requires understanding the evolving situation and finding sustainable solutions to meet critical needs, both during the ongoing conflict and in the rebuilding phase.

What are the potential pathways to a peaceful resolution of the conflict, and what are the risks and challenges associated with each? This complex question involves analyzing diplomatic efforts, potential ceasefire options, negotiations, and the role of international actors. It requires considering the viewpoints of all parties involved, the feasibility of different solutions, and the potential consequences of continued escalation.

How will the war in Ukraine impact the global order, including security, economics, and international cooperation? This question asks about the larger ripple effects of the conflict. It requires analyzing the war’s influence on power dynamics, alliances, energy security, food supplies, and international institutions. It’s crucial to understand the lasting impact and potential changes to the global landscape.

By ChatGTP

ChatGPT writes:

As of my last knowledge update in January 2022, here are three important questions related to Ukraine. The geopolitical situation may have evolved since then, so it’s essential to check for the latest information:

Security and Conflict: What is the current status of the conflict in Eastern Ukraine, particularly in the Donbas region, and what are the prospects for a peaceful resolution?

Relations with Russia and the West: How are Ukraine’s relations with Russia evolving, especially in terms of political, economic, and security aspects? Additionally, what is the status of Ukraine’s integration with Western institutions, such as the European Union and NATO?

Internal Reforms and Governance: What progress has Ukraine made in implementing internal reforms, tackling corruption, and strengthening democratic institutions, and what challenges does the country still face in these areas?

By Perplexity

Perplexity writes:

Three of the most important questions about the Russia-Ukraine war include:⁷⁶

Why did Russia invade Ukraine? Russia’s President Vladimir Putin claimed the invasion was to stop a “genocide” in Ukraine, which was widely dismissed as false. The deeper reasons relate to the long history of Russian-Ukrainian relations and Russia’s desire for regime change in Ukraine and to challenge its sovereignty.⁷⁷

What are the potential outcomes of the war? The conditions for peace are complex, with Russia demanding recognition of annexed territories and Ukraine insisting on Russian withdrawal and reparations. The conflict’s resolution is uncertain due to the maximalist positions of both sides.⁷⁸

What are the war’s global ripple effects? The conflict has already caused a refugee crisis and could have broader implications, such as affecting global food prices due to Ukraine’s role as a major agricultural producer. The war’s impact on international relations and economies is also a significant concern.⁷⁹

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THAT’S ALL FOLKS !

That’s everything I assembled with the time I had.

See you on 28 February!