Congress Pc’s Performance
Harshit
2024-02-12
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## chisq.test, fisher.test2 INC MLA
2.1 Number of INC MLA over the Years
| Period | MLA_BJP | MLA_INC | MLA_Others |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1984-1987 | 199 | 1802 | 1860 |
| 1988-1991 | 799 | 1383 | 2292 |
| 1992-1995 | 736 | 895 | 1437 |
| 1994-1999 | 656 | 1154 | 1725 |
| 2000-2003 | 777 | 777 | 1728 |
| 2004-2007 | 587 | 844 | 2026 |
| 2008-2011 | 593 | 970 | 1617 |
| 2012-2015 | 1018 | 764 | 1584 |
| 2016-2019 | 1200 | 862 | 1654 |
| 2020-2023 | 1240 | 571 | 1307 |
3 Vote share difference from winner and losers
3.1 Seats Where Congress won in 2014 but lost in 2019
3.2 Vote share difference of congress from runner up in winning seats
3.3 vote share difference from winner where it lost
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4 INC AND BJP Combined vote share scatter
4.1 PLOT-1
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5 Turnout Analysis
5.1 combined bjp and inc
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5.2 2014 and 2019 turnout and vote share of BJP and INC
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5.3 Turnout and vote share scatter of 2009 and 2014
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5.4 Turnout and voteshare scatter of 2009 and 2019
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5.5 Scatter plot 2009 and 2014 vote share
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## [1] "Scatter Plot 2009 and 2014 voteshare"
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6 INC Urban Rural
6.1 Table
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## Table: Urban Rural Performance of INC
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## | Year|Percentile | Seats_won| Vote_Share| seat_share| strike_rate|
## |----:|:----------|---------:|----------:|----------:|-----------:|
## | 2009|Most Rural | 62| 37.05| 49.60| 54.39|
## | 2009|25-50% | 47| 28.89| 36.15| 46.53|
## | 2009|50%-75% | 41| 26.35| 30.60| 36.94|
## | 2009|Most Urban | 41| 20.28| 31.06| 44.57|
## | 2014|Most Rural | 13| 29.21| 10.40| 11.50|
## | 2014|25-50% | 9| 22.96| 6.92| 7.83|
## | 2014|50%-75% | 9| 15.39| 6.72| 8.33|
## | 2014|Most Urban | 13| 13.15| 9.85| 12.26|
## | 2019|Most Rural | 8| 27.40| 5.93| 6.61|
## | 2019|25-50% | 10| 20.61| 7.46| 9.80|
## | 2019|50%-75% | 21| 17.05| 15.67| 21.21|
## | 2019|Most Urban | 12| 12.64| 8.89| 12.77|
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## __Note:__
## ^a^Note: This data doesn't include Dadar and Nagar Haveli,Daman and Div,Chandigarh,Lakshdweep, Andman and Nicobar and Chandigarh.
## Source:European Satalite Agency and Global Human Settlement Layer6.2 Urban Rural vote share plot
# Party Workers Survey
7 INC Turnout Change and Winning Probability
7.1 2019 and 2014
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## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) -2.22037 0.14629 -15.177 <2e-16 ***
## vs_difference_1914 -0.04837 0.03716 -1.302 0.193
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
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## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
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## Null deviance: 342.82 on 542 degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 341.13 on 541 degrees of freedom
## AIC: 345.13
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## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5## Data were 'prettified'. Consider using `terms="vs_difference_1914
## [all]"` to get smooth plots.
7.2 2009 and 2014
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## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) -1.84217 0.21269 -8.661 < 2e-16 ***
## vs_difference_0914 -0.09039 0.02733 -3.307 0.000943 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
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## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
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## Null deviance: 305.47 on 542 degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 293.85 on 541 degrees of freedom
## AIC: 297.85
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## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5## Data were 'prettified'. Consider using `terms="vs_difference_0914
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7.3 2009 and 2019
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## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) -1.69364 0.17402 -9.733 < 2e-16 ***
## vs_difference_0919 -0.08321 0.01923 -4.327 1.51e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
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## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
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## Null deviance: 342.82 on 542 degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 323.03 on 541 degrees of freedom
## AIC: 327.03
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## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5## Data were 'prettified'. Consider using `terms="vs_difference_0919
## [all]"` to get smooth plots.