class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide .title[ #
Time Series Analysis of Sunspots
] .subtitle[ ##
] .author[ ###
Joshua Zhong
] .institute[ ###
Partnered with Royal Observatory of Belgium and SILSO
] .date[ ###
West Chester University STA490: Statistics Capstone
] --- class:inverse4, top <h1 align="center"> Table of Contents</h1> <BR> .pull-left[ - Introduction to Sunspots and Data Overview <br><br> - Time Series Analysis and Forecasting Models <br><br> - Model Selection and Forecasting Accuracy <br><br> - Summary and Key Findings ] .pull-right[ <div style = "text-align: center;"> <img src="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/JZhong01/STA490/main/Week3/img/NOAA%20Sunspot.jfif" width=380 height=214> </div> ] --- <h1 align = "center"> Introduction and Data Overview</h1> <br> .pull-left[ - Brief Introduction to Sunspots <br><br> - Overview of Data Set ] .pull-right[ <div style = "text-align: center;"> <img src="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/JZhong01/STA490/main/Week3/img/Mean%20Monthly%20Sunspots.png" width=500 height=417> </div> ] --- <h2 align = "center"> Time Series Analysis and Forecasting Models</h2> <br> .pull-left[ - Creation of Time Series Object to analyze recent sunspot activity <br><br> - Overview of Smoothing Techniques - Simple Exponential Smoothing - Holt's Models - Holt-Winters Models ] .pull-right[ <div style = "text-align: center;"> <img src="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/JZhong01/STA490/main/Week3/img/Holt-Winters%20Models.png" width=500 height=417> </div> ] --- <h2 align = "center"> Model Selection and Forecasting Accuracy</h2> <br> .pull-left[ - Model Evaluation - dividing data into Training and Testing data <br><br> - Selection of the Time Series Model based on its ability to capture seasonality and trends ] .pull-right[ <div style = "text-align: center;"> <img src="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/JZhong01/STA490/main/Week3/img/Exponential%20Smoothing%20Accuracy.png" width=500 height=436> </div> ] --- <h1 align="center"> Summary and Key Findings</h1> <br> - Discussion on chosen Holt-Winters Model <br><br> - Reflection on research objectives --- <h1 align="center"> Sources</h1> <br> Data Set: “Sunspot data from the World Data Center SILSO, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels” Slides created via the R packages: [**xaringan**](https://github.com/yihui/xaringan)<br> [gadenbuie/xaringanthemer](https://github.com/gadenbuie/xaringanthemer) Image Credits: - Royal Observatory of Belgium - NOAA - Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations