Componentes

library(tidyverse)

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library(fpp3)

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empleo_tsbl <- us_employment |> 
  filter(year(Month)>=1990, Title=="Retail Trade") |> 
  select(-Series_ID)

#Download to csv
# Para crear una carpeta
#dir.create("datos")
#us_retail_employment |> 
#  write_csv("datos/empleo_eeuu.csv")

autoplot(empleo_tsbl)

Plot variable not specified, automatically selected `.vars = Employed`

Classical decomposition

empleo_decomp <- empleo_tsbl |> 
  model(
    clasica=classical_decomposition(Employed,
                                    type="additive")
  )

empleo_decomp

# A mable: 1 x 1
          clasica
          <model>
1 <DECOMPOSITION>

Components

empleo_components <- empleo_decomp |> 
  components()
empleo_components

# A dable: 357 x 7 [1M]
# Key:     .model [1]
# :        Employed = trend + seasonal + random
   .model      Month Employed  trend seasonal random season_adjust
   <chr>       <mth>    <dbl>  <dbl>    <dbl>  <dbl>         <dbl>
 1 clasica 1990 ene.   13256.    NA    -75.5   NA           13331.
 2 clasica 1990 feb.   12966.    NA   -273.    NA           13239.
 3 clasica 1990 mar.   12938.    NA   -253.    NA           13191.
 4 clasica 1990 abr.   13012.    NA   -190.    NA           13203.
 5 clasica 1990 may.   13108.    NA    -88.9   NA           13197.
 6 clasica 1990 jun.   13183.    NA    -10.4   NA           13193.
 7 clasica 1990 jul.   13170. 13178.   -13.3    5.65        13183.
 8 clasica 1990 ago.   13160. 13161.    -9.99   8.80        13169.
 9 clasica 1990 sep.   13113. 13141.   -87.4   59.9         13201.
10 clasica 1990 oct.   13185. 13117.    34.6   33.8         13151.
# ℹ 347 more rows

empleo_components |> 
  autoplot()

Warning: Removed 6 rows containing missing values (`geom_line()`).

Con descomposicón simple la tendencia a veces suaviza más d elo que debería. Como la estacionalidad es un promedio por lo que se mantiene fija, lo cual puede causar problemas.

empleo_tsbl |> 
  model(STL(Employed ~ trend(window=7) + season(window='periodic'),
    robust = TRUE)) |> 
  components() |> 
  autoplot()