2024-02-05

Meeting overview

Meeting overview

  • 30min: Presentation (15-20min) + discussion (10-15min)
  • 20min: Reporting rounds from task forces - updates (if any), any completed task forces, need to start a new one?
  • 10min: Data needs - does anyone have a new dataset to share? Is anyone searching for specific datasets?
  • 30min: Plan task force activities/work in task forces

Optimization

How to plan for futute landscapes

\(\begin{align*} \text{Maximize} & = \text{Biodiversity} + \text{Resilience} + \text{Human dimension}\end{align*}\)

  • Biodiversity
    • Community composition and rarity
    • Phylogenetic Diversity
    • Functional diversity*
  • Resilience
    • Contiguity (Area)
    • Stochastic components and Global Change Vulnerability
    • Network stability (Trophic and/or mutualistic)*
    • Ecosystem Functioning*
  • Human dimension
    • Food and resource security (Eg. Renewable energy, water)
    • Minimize conflict*

Example problem

Resotration of agriculture to nature

  • 14% of Denmark from agriculture to Nature
  • Nature divided in OpenDryRich, OpenDryPoor, OpenWetRich, OpenWetPoor, ForestDryRich, ForestDryPoor, ForestWetRich, ForestWetPoor

Biodiversity

Maximize biodiversity

\[\max_{\text{ConservationIndex}} \sum_{l, c}^{L,C} \text{LanduseDecision}_{l, c} \cdot \frac{\text{S}_{l, c} + \text{PD}_{l, c}+ \text{Rar}_{l, c}}{3}\]

Resilience

Resilience

  • Resilience
    • Contiguity (Area)
    • Stochastic components and Global Change Vulnerability
    • Network stability (Trophic and/or mutualistic)*
    • Ecosystem Functioning*

\[\max_{\text{ObjectiveFunction}} \sum_{i, j} \text{DecisionVariable}_{l, i} \cdot \text{DecisionVariable}_{l, j} \cdot \text{Bonus}\]

Example Landuse (Global contribution)

\(\begin{align*} \text{Maximize} & = \text{Biodiversity} + \text{Resilience} \cdot \text{bonus}\end{align*}\)

  • Trade-off

Look at each cell

Landuse MainCont PropCont PropBiod
ForestDryRich Biodiversity 0.17 0.83
ForestDryRich Biodiversity 0.10 0.90
ForestDryRich Biodiversity 0.21 0.79
ForestDryRich Biodiversity 0.21 0.79
ForestDryRich Biodiversity 0.22 0.78
ForestDryRich Equal 0.50 0.50
ForestDryRich Contiguity 0.50 0.50
ForestDryRich Contiguity 0.51 0.49
OpenWetRich Contiguity 0.51 0.49
OpenDryRich Contiguity 0.51 0.49
OpenDryRich Contiguity 0.51 0.49

Individual cell values (Local contribution)

\(\begin{align*} \text{Maximize} & = \text{Biodiversity}_c + \textbf{Resilience}_c\cdot \textbf{bonus}\end{align*}\)

Work in progress

  • Stochasticity and climate change vulnerability

Resilience in Networks

  • Measures of network stability
  • Trophic and mutualistic
  • With rewiring potential hypothesis
  • Potential colaboration (Eva and Alejo, Task force 5)

Network flow

  • Incorporating species dispersal (Species on the move)
  • Multiple scenarios

Geographic representation

Adding human dimension

\[\begin{align*} \text{Maximize} & = \text{Biodiversity} + \text{Resilience} + \textbf{Human dimension}\end{align*}\]

  • First iteration:
    • Economic yield and number of owners (Mette, Task force 4)
    • Ecosystem Services? (Sara, Fabio, Task force 3)
  • Second iteration:
    • Characterization of actors, who is in the areas of interest (Farmers, Home owners, private companies, municipalities, Frederik)
    • What are their interests
  • Third iteration:
    • Interview them, what are their concerns (quantitative surveys, Q method, Maya, Pil, Sara)
    • add them to the optimization

Quesions?

Task forces

How can we do it

  • Every working group works independently
  • Choose periodicity
  • Created and dissolved for specific tasks

Example

  • Task force: Building species pool for different habitat types (for prioritization, Hanne and Derek)
  • Periodicity: Once a week
  • Output: Shown today

Planned task forces

  • Task force 2: Assess planning, governance and environmental priorities in Denmark and combine this with modelling expertise
    • Members: Morten, Mette,
  • Task force 3: Ecosystem Service Assessment
    • Members: Sara, Fabio (LandCraft link)
  • Task force 4: Scenarios of agriculture in Denmark
    • Members: Hanne, (Mette)
  • Task force 5: Modeling restoration of interactions based on vegetation composition
    • Members: Eva and Derek

Data needs