Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update

Author

DevLab@Penn

Published

February 7, 2024

Introduction

We have updated data and forecasts for: Armenia, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Moldova, Namibia, Nepal, Serbia, Sri Lanka, Uzbekistan, Zambia. We are forecasting major events for: India, Nepal.

In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.

We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.

MLP Website: here

PW Protected Page: here (email mlpeace-devlab@sas.upenn.edu for access)

Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here

Civic Space Early Warning System

Nepal

Nepal is a new country. Our data includes coverage through the end of November 2023. Over the last three months, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Censorship in November: The Nepalese government imposed a ban on the social media platform TikTok, citing disruptions to social harmony as the primary reason for this action.
  • Natural Disaster in November: In response to a devastating earthquake in Jajarkot District, President Ram Chandra Paudel visited the area, including a stop at Jajarkot Hospital to assess the condition of those injured. The earthquake claimed 153 lives and injured over 200 individuals, with survivors appealing for assistance in treatment, food supply, and reconstruction efforts.
  • Non-lethal Violence in October: A police shootout with armed robbers in Kathmandu resulted in suspect sustaining injuries to his thigh and knee. Two accomplices were apprehended.
  • Protests in September: The Nepal Teachers Foundation took to the streets over issues related to relief quota teachers and broader educational concerns. Additionally, street vendors protested, seeking policy reforms to address their grievances.

Forecasting

Our standard forecasting models are predicting a spike in Legal Actions in Q2 2024.

Namibia

Nepal is a new country. Our data includes coverage through the end of November 2023. Over the last three months, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Legal Action in October: Two councillors from Karasburg Town and a staff member were arrested over allegations of corruption concerning plot allocations and tender fraud. They were subsequently released on bail, indicating ongoing legal proceedings in these matters.
  • Corruption in October: The Vice President of Swapo, Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, highlighted the importance of differentiating between legitimate corruption cases and those that are politically motivated. This statement came in the context of the arrest and bail release of two Karasburg Town Councillors and a staff member, pointing to the nuanced landscape of corruption and political maneuvering in Namibia.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Armenia

For Armenia, our data includes coverage through the end of November 2023. Since the data was last updated through September, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Corruption in November: Following accusations of misconduct in a government session, the judicial department initiated a response to address these concerns. An investigation was launched to determine the reason behind a power outage during the session, exploring whether it was an intentional disruption or indicative of infrastructure issues, highlighting efforts to tackle allegations of corruption effectively.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Hungary

For Hungary, our data includes coverage through the end of November 2023. Since the data was last updated through August, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Legal Changes: Conversations about enhancing Hungary’s sovereignty and the necessity for constitutional amendments were prominent. This was partly in response to a resolution by the Council of Europe, hinting at potential adjustments in local governance or administrative practices.
  • Non-Lethal Violence in September: A significant incident involved two men being shot and needing hospital treatment, highlighting concerns over public safety.
  • Political Cooperation in October: Discussions and potential negotiations between Hungarian officials and Russian representatives were reported, indicating diplomatic activities.
  • Troop Mobilization in October: Enhanced security measures were evident through the reported mobilization of police and military forces within Hungary, especially in Budapest and near the Slovak-Hungarian border, signaling a focus on national security.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Moldova

For Moldova, our data includes coverage through the end of November 2023. Since the data was last updated through August, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Corruption: Amendments to the legal framework aim to enhance the Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s ability to combat corruption more effectively. New instances of electoral corruption were identified, with police actively investigating these cases.
  • Election Activity: Local elections were conducted, featuring a variety of votes, parties, and candidates, indicating a period of significant political engagement.
  • Election Irregularities: Concerns were raised about the election process in Orhei, including issues related to the Central Election Commission (CEC) and allegations of potential fraud, with Russia cited as a possible external influence.
  • Troop Mobilization in October: A joint training exercise was held by the Moldovan and Romanian militaries, showcasing cooperation and preparedness within the region’s defense efforts.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Serbia

For Serbia, our data includes coverage through the end of November 2023. Since the data was last updated through August, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Legal Changes in October: The consideration of new media laws has sparked concern among media associations, journalists, and independent bodies, with fears that enabling state ownership of media entities could impair media freedom, negatively affecting journalists and society at large.
  • Election Activity in November: Political entities, including parties, coalitions, and citizen groups, have been actively nominating their candidate rosters for upcoming parliamentary elections. Efforts are being emphasized to ensure all Serbian citizens, even those living abroad, can register and vote. Additionally, plans are in place to host multiple election debates to foster in-depth discussions on critical issues and provide a forum for candidates.
  • Corruption in November: Evidence was uncovered that the Serbian government had paid for lawyers defending Kosovo Serbs facing corruption charges. Serbia’s Anti-Corruption Agency faced allegations or targeting their investigations against opposition figures.

Forecasting

In our last update, our shock models predicted an increase in reporting on Corruption in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 and an increase in Purge/Replace in Q4 2023. We did observe a shock to Corruption in November. However, we did not observe a shock to Purge/Replace in the first of second month of Q4. Our updated models are not predicting future shocks to Corruption or Purge/Replace

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

India

For India, our data includes coverage through the end of November 2023. Since the data was last updated through August, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Arrests in October: High-profile arrests included Dasna temple’s head priest, Narsinghanand, in Ghaziabad for controversial remarks and actions, and the founder-editor of NewsClick under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act, highlighting concerns over journalistic freedom. Additionally, an individual in Pune was arrested for illegal immigration with suspected bomb blast links.
  • Legal Action in October: The BJP in Karnataka called for a CBI investigation into money seizures tied to corruption, while NCP leader Mohammed Faizal approached the Supreme Court over disqualification in an attempt to murder case. The Supreme Court also examined the Enforcement Directorate’s approach to a money laundering case.
  • Legal Changes in September: Advocacy for the Women’s Reservation Bill by BRS leader K Kavitha targeted 47 political parties for support. Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge criticized new disability pension rules for armed forces, accusing the BJP of ‘fake nationalism’. The Supreme Court aimed to strengthen self-regulation of TV news channels.
  • Corruption in October: The Enforcement Directorate charged individuals and a company under anti-money laundering laws concerning undisclosed foreign assets, spotlighting the Panama Papers. The Delhi High Court reviewed a petition by Arun Ramchandra Pillai regarding his arrest in the Delhi excise policy scam.
  • Civic Activism in October: Activists leveraged legal avenues to challenge government decisions and advocate for civil liberties, with notable police presence at protests.
  • Purge/Replace in October: Gautami Tadimalla exited the BJP amid significant media attention, and India requested the withdrawal of numerous Canadian diplomats.
  • Raids in October: Actions against NewsClick and investigations into Bengal’s recruitment scam and the Popular Front of India case underscored the tense relationship between the state and media/judicial activism.
  • Lethal Violence in October: The death of Shahid Latif, linked to the Pathankot attack, occurred in Pakistan. A soldier’s death near the LoC in Jammu and Kashmir and India’s concern over Israel-Palestine civilian casualties were noted.
  • Troop Mobilization in October: Security forces were deployed in Shivamogga, Karnataka, and Delhi, among other locations, following various incidents of violence and security threats.
  • Political Threats in November: Kerala’s Chief Minister and a BJP MLA reported receiving threats, reflecting the charged political atmosphere.
  • Political Cooperation in September: Meetings between Indian and U.S. officials, as well as internal BJP discussions, indicated ongoing diplomatic and party-related activities. Notable defections to the BJP from Congress in Rajasthan were observed.
  • Irregular Transition in November: Accusations by Tejashwi Yadav against the BJP of destabilizing state governments and a plot in Uttar Pradesh highlighted political tensions and allegations of manipulation.
  • Election Activity in November: Innovations like the ‘vote-from-home’ facility in Chhattisgarh elections and political debates in Telangana and Mizoram illustrated dynamic electoral strategies and disputes.

Forecasting

Our standard forecasting models are predicting a spike in Non-Lethal Violence in Q1 2024.

Indonesia

For Indonesia, our data includes coverage through the end of November 2023. Since the data was last updated through August, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Defamation Cases: Social activists Haris Azhar and Fatia Maulidinenti faced defamation charges related to accusations against Lord Luhut, with an anticipated increase in such cases by January 2024.
  • Legal Action in October: The Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) detained Kasdi Subagyono, Secretary-General of the Ministry of Agriculture, as part of a corruption probe. The KPK also investigated alleged extortion within its leadership, examining eight witnesses and advocating for criminal penalties that revoke political rights of the corrupt as both deterrent and mitigation.
  • Corruption in October: Allegations of extortion involved the KPK’s leadership. Dadan Tri Yudhianto, former Commissioner of PT Wika Beton, faced accusations in a major corruption case concerning BTS infrastructure, with a public prosecutor demanding a 15-year sentence for the head of PT Mora Telematika Indonesia for receiving bribes linked to a Supreme Court case.
  • Civic Activism in October: Human rights activists and a former Attorney General highlighted three significant human rights issues. Support for “Indonesia Village Volunteers” indicated ongoing community development or assistance efforts.
  • Election Activity in November: The campaign for Indonesia’s 2024 general elections kicked off, running from November 28, 2023, to February 10, 2024. The Public Election Commission (CPU) and the Independent Monitoring Committee of Election (KIIPP) are monitoring the distribution of election materials, ensuring a fair and orderly electoral process.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Sri Lanka

For Sri Lanka, our data includes coverage through the end of November 2023. Since the data was last updated through August, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Corruption in November: The integrity and autonomy of Committee On Public Enterprises (COPE) are under scrutiny amid discussions about political meddling in its activities. There’s a growing clamor for the ouster or suspension of the COPE Chairman, with parliamentarians voicing their discontent with the existing leadership and advocating for the election of a new chair.
  • Natural Disaster in October: Landslide warnings have been issued for multiple districts, namely Galle, Kalutara, Matara, and Ratnapura, signaling heightened risk in these areas.
  • Arrests in November: The Chairman of the Central Environmental Authority (CEA) and two others were arrested for soliciting bribes. An arrest was made in an extortion case involving the former Chairman of the Public Utilities Commission. Eight gunmen were arrested over shooting incidents in multiple provinces.

Forecasting

In our August update, our shock models predicted a spike in Arrests in Q3 2023. We observed a shock to Arrests one month late in November.

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Uzbekistan

For Uzbekistan, our data includes coverage through the end of November 2023. Since the data was last updated through August, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Lethal Violence in October: Conflicts erupted between border guards and local residents in the Vodil residential area of the Fergana region, adjacent to Kyrgyzstan, resulting in two fatalities. Additionally, there have been casualties and missing persons among Uzbek citizens due to Hamas’s attacks on Israel starting October 7.
  • Political Cooperation in November: Uzbekistan has intensified its diplomatic and cooperative efforts with various nations and organizations. Efforts include reinforcing strategic partnerships with Russia, engaging in multilateral collaborations with the United Nations on healthcare, environmental, and climate issues, and enhancing trade and economic connections with areas such as Guangdong province.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Zambia

For Zambia, our data includes coverage through the end of November 2023. Since the data was last updated through July, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Censorship in August: Raphael Nakacinda of the PF accused the UPND of urging police to prevent former President Edgar Lungu from participating in the Malaila traditional ceremony.
  • Defamation Cases in August: Socialist Party leader Fred M’membe was arrested on libel charges, leading to him filing a defamation lawsuit against Inspector General of Police Graphael Musamba.
  • Legal Action in September: The son of ex-President Edgar Lungu is contesting the validity of a case initiated by the Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP), seeking its dismissal. Political figure Chishimba Kambwili began his defense in a hate speech case, moving the trial into a pivotal stage.
  • Purge/Replace in November: The Speaker of the National Assembly suspended 17 MPs for 30 days in a notable disciplinary measure.
  • Political Cooperation in October: The Zambian National Assembly formed a caucus focused on disability rights, highlighting a legislative effort to cater to the needs and rights of disabled persons. Furthermore, Zambia signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with its official creditors, a crucial move towards managing its debt challenges.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.