There was major drama throughout the round of 16, with several very late goals and some of the big boys in West Asia being taken out disappointingly early (for them, at least). The main talking point is Iraq’s sensational late defeat to Jordan, but the UAE losing a penalty shootout to Tajikistan also comes as a surprise.
None of the matches were total upsets on our model, with every winning team having a >40% chance of progressing - although, showing the closeness of Asian football, all but one team was able to score. The exception were Indonesia, who played fairly well in the first half but were ultimately no match for the Australian team that put four goals past them.
Because of that lopsided result, and contrary to the social expectation (which also shows the limits of numbers), the Socceroos have found themselves the very slight favourites to win the entire Asian Cup and add to their 2015 trophy. Having the best form rating of any team left in the tournament (see table below), being drawn against a South Korean team that’s had a fairly spotty defensive performance so far, and getting one of the theoretically weaker teams in the semi-finals has them with a ~21% chance of winning the tournament, just stronger than Qatar’s.
| Team | FDiff | ADiff | TDiff |
|---|---|---|---|
| AUS | 0.32130 | -0.77424 | 1.09554 |
| JOR | 0.66802 | 0.06115 | 0.60687 |
| UZB | -0.04417 | -0.57320 | 0.52903 |
| TJK | -0.34232 | -0.73500 | 0.39268 |
| JPN | 0.58782 | 0.31905 | 0.26877 |
| IRN | -0.05372 | -0.26582 | 0.21210 |
| QAT | -0.40966 | -0.55392 | 0.14427 |
| KOR | 0.54687 | 0.54202 | 0.00485 |
Looking ahead to this round, all four games should be fairly close, with a reasonable favourite for each but no lopsided predictions. Our pick is tomorrow’s Iran v Japan game, which has two of the strongest teams (and two teams who would’ve expected a meeting against each other in the final).
| Team | Opponent | Semi Finals | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUS | KOR | 6104 | 3914 | 2052 |
| QAT | UZB | 6047 | 3405 | 2032 |
| JPN | IRN | 5663 | 2902 | 1590 |
| JOR | TJK | 6133 | 2774 | 1198 |
| IRN | JPN | 4337 | 1849 | 921 |
| UZB | QAT | 3953 | 1844 | 919 |
| KOR | AUS | 3896 | 1976 | 851 |
| TJK | JOR | 3867 | 1336 | 437 |