Set Up:

# List of packages
packages <- c("tidyverse", "fst", "modelsummary", "viridis") 

# Install packages if they aren't installed already
new_packages <- packages[!(packages %in% installed.packages()[,"Package"])]
if(length(new_packages)) install.packages(new_packages)

# Load the packages
lapply(packages, library, character.only = TRUE)
## ── Attaching core tidyverse packages ──────────────────────── tidyverse 2.0.0 ──
## ✔ dplyr     1.1.4     ✔ readr     2.1.4
## ✔ forcats   1.0.0     ✔ stringr   1.5.1
## ✔ ggplot2   3.4.4     ✔ tibble    3.2.1
## ✔ lubridate 1.9.3     ✔ tidyr     1.3.0
## ✔ purrr     1.0.2     
## ── Conflicts ────────────────────────────────────────── tidyverse_conflicts() ──
## ✖ dplyr::filter() masks stats::filter()
## ✖ dplyr::lag()    masks stats::lag()
## ℹ Use the conflicted package (<http://conflicted.r-lib.org/>) to force all conflicts to become errors
## Loading required package: viridisLite
## [[1]]
##  [1] "lubridate" "forcats"   "stringr"   "dplyr"     "purrr"     "readr"    
##  [7] "tidyr"     "tibble"    "ggplot2"   "tidyverse" "stats"     "graphics" 
## [13] "grDevices" "utils"     "datasets"  "methods"   "base"     
## 
## [[2]]
##  [1] "fst"       "lubridate" "forcats"   "stringr"   "dplyr"     "purrr"    
##  [7] "readr"     "tidyr"     "tibble"    "ggplot2"   "tidyverse" "stats"    
## [13] "graphics"  "grDevices" "utils"     "datasets"  "methods"   "base"     
## 
## [[3]]
##  [1] "modelsummary" "fst"          "lubridate"    "forcats"      "stringr"     
##  [6] "dplyr"        "purrr"        "readr"        "tidyr"        "tibble"      
## [11] "ggplot2"      "tidyverse"    "stats"        "graphics"     "grDevices"   
## [16] "utils"        "datasets"     "methods"      "base"        
## 
## [[4]]
##  [1] "viridis"      "viridisLite"  "modelsummary" "fst"          "lubridate"   
##  [6] "forcats"      "stringr"      "dplyr"        "purrr"        "readr"       
## [11] "tidyr"        "tibble"       "ggplot2"      "tidyverse"    "stats"       
## [16] "graphics"     "grDevices"    "utils"        "datasets"     "methods"     
## [21] "base"

Task 1

Provide code and answer.

Prompt: in the tutorial, we calculated the average trust in others for France and visualized it. Using instead the variable ‘Trust in Parliament’ (trstplt) and the country of Spain (country file provided on course website), visualize the average trust by survey year. You can truncate the y-axis if you wish. Provide appropriate titles and labels given the changes. What are your main takeaways based on the visual (e.g., signs of increase, decrease, or stall)?

spain_data <- read.fst("spain_data.fst")
spain_data <- spain_data %>%
  mutate(
    trstplt = ifelse(trstplt %in% c(77, 88, 99), NA, trstplt), # set values 77, 88, and 99 to NA.
  )

table(spain_data$trstplt)
## 
##    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10 
## 5165 1830 2329 2441 2085 2890 1154  639  355   80   71
spain_data$year <- NA
replacements <- c(2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020)
for(i in 1:10){
  spain_data$year[spain_data$essround == i] <- replacements[i]
}

table(spain_data$year)
## 
## 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 
## 1729 1663 1876 2576 1885 1889 1925 1958 1668 2283
trust_by_year <- spain_data %>%
  group_by(year) %>%
  summarize(mean_trust = mean(trstplt, na.rm = TRUE))
trust_by_year
## # A tibble: 10 × 2
##     year mean_trust
##    <dbl>      <dbl>
##  1  2002       3.41
##  2  2004       3.66
##  3  2006       3.49
##  4  2008       3.32
##  5  2010       2.72
##  6  2012       1.91
##  7  2014       2.23
##  8  2016       2.40
##  9  2018       2.55
## 10  2020       1.94
ggplot(trust_by_year, aes(x = year, y = mean_trust)) +
  geom_line(color = "blue", size = 1) +  # Line to show the trend
  geom_point(color = "red", size = 3) +  # Points to highlight each year's value
  labs(title = "Trust in Parliament in Spain (2002-2020)", 
       x = "Survey Year", 
       y = "Average Trust (0-10 scale)") +
  ylim(0, 10) +  # Setting the y-axis limits from 0 to 10
  theme_minimal()
## Warning: Using `size` aesthetic for lines was deprecated in ggplot2 3.4.0.
## ℹ Please use `linewidth` instead.
## This warning is displayed once every 8 hours.
## Call `lifecycle::last_lifecycle_warnings()` to see where this warning was
## generated.

Main takeaways: Generally, the average trust in parliament by survey year in Spain gradually declined from 2005 to 2010. A sharp decline happened sometime between 2010 and 2015 (around 2012). This led to a decline of below 2.5 average trust. The lowest average trust was reported around 2012 and 2020, whereas, the highest was reported sometime before 2005, reaching almost 3.75 (the scale goes by 2.5, so the unlabeled years would be half- 1.25).

Task 2

Provide answer only.

Prompt and question: Based on the figure we produced above called task2_plot, tell us: what are your main takeaways regarding France relative to Italy and Norway? Make sure to be concrete and highlight at least two important comparative trends visualized in the graph.

Some main takeaways regarding France relative to Italy and Norway in terms of proportions saying “yes” to feeling close to a party by cohort are that France started with a slight increase in 1920, whereas, Italy and Norway started in 1920 with slight decreases; however, France also began to see a gradual decline beginning in 1940, much earlier than the other countries.

Task 3

Provide code and answer.

Question: What is the marginal percentage of Italian men who feel close to a particular political party?

italy_data <- read.fst("italy_data.fst")

italy_data <- italy_data %>%
  mutate(
    gndr = case_when(
      gndr == 1 ~ "Male",
      gndr == 2 ~ "Female",
      TRUE ~ NA_character_  # Set anything that is not 1 or 2 to NA
    ),
    lrscale = case_when(
      lrscale %in% 0:3 ~ "Left",       # Left-wing (0 to 3)
      lrscale %in% 7:10 ~ "Right",     # Right-wing (7 to 10)
      TRUE ~ NA_character_  # Moderate (4, 5, 6) and special codes (77, 88, 99) set to NA 
    )    
  ) 



lrscale_percentages <- italy_data %>%  # Begin with the dataset 'france_data'
  filter(!is.na(lrscale), !is.na(gndr)) %>%  # Filter out rows where 'lrscale' or 'gender' is NA (missing data)
  group_by(gndr, lrscale) %>%  # Group the data by 'gender' and 'lrscale' categories
  summarise(count = n(), .groups = 'drop') %>%  # Summarise each group to get counts, and then drop groupings
  mutate(percentage = count / sum(count) * 100)  # Calculate percentage for each group by dividing count by total count and multiplying by 100

lrscale_percentages  # The resulting dataframe
## # A tibble: 4 × 4
##   gndr   lrscale count percentage
##   <chr>  <chr>   <int>      <dbl>
## 1 Female Left      930       23.9
## 2 Female Right     955       24.5
## 3 Male   Left      924       23.7
## 4 Male   Right    1084       27.8

Therefore, the marginal percentage of Italian men who feel close to a particular political party is 51.57976% because the percentages of men who lean politically left or right must be added to get the total sum. In that regard, the other portion of men do not particularly lean to any political side, left or right, heavily.

Task 4

Provide code and output only.

Prompt: In the tutorial, we calculated then visualized the percentage distribution for left vs. right by gender for France. Your task is to replicate the second version of the visualization but for the country of Sweden instead.

sweden_data <- read.fst("sweden_data.fst")

sweden_data <- sweden_data %>%
  mutate(
    gndr = case_when(
      gndr == 1 ~ "Male",
      gndr == 2 ~ "Female",
      TRUE ~ NA_character_  # Set anything that is not 1 or 2 to NA
    ),
    lrscale = case_when(
      lrscale %in% 0:3 ~ "Left",       # Left-wing (0 to 3)
      lrscale %in% 7:10 ~ "Right",     # Right-wing (7 to 10)
      TRUE ~ NA_character_  # Moderate (4, 5, 6) and special codes (77, 88, 99) set to NA 
    )    
  ) 
lrscale_percentages <- sweden_data %>%  # Begin with the dataset 'france_data'
  filter(!is.na(lrscale), !is.na(gndr)) %>%  # Filter out rows where 'lrscale' or 'gender' is NA (missing data)
  group_by(gndr, lrscale) %>%  # Group the data by 'gender' and 'lrscale' categories
  summarise(count = n(), .groups = 'drop') %>%  # Summarise each group to get counts, and then drop groupings
  mutate(percentage = count / sum(count) * 100)  # Calculate percentage for each group by dividing count by total count and multiplying by 100

lrscale_percentages  # The resulting dataframe
## # A tibble: 4 × 4
##   gndr   lrscale count percentage
##   <chr>  <chr>   <int>      <dbl>
## 1 Female Left     2296       23.0
## 2 Female Right    2530       25.3
## 3 Male   Left     2062       20.6
## 4 Male   Right    3107       31.1
# Create a ggplot object for horizontal bar chart with the specified style
lrscale_plot_v2 <- ggplot(lrscale_percentages, 
            aes(x = percentage,  # Use percentage directly
                y = reorder(gndr, -percentage),  # Order bars within each gender
                fill = gndr)) +  # Fill color based on Gender

  # Create horizontal bar chart
  geom_col() +  # Draws the bars using the provided data
  coord_flip() +  # Flip coordinates to make bars horizontal

  # Remove fill color legend
  guides(fill = "none") +  # Removes legend for the fill aesthetic

  # Split the plot based on Political Orientation
  facet_wrap(~ lrscale, nrow = 1) +  # Separate plots for Left/Right

  # Labels and titles for the plot
  labs(x = "Percentage of Respondents",  # X-axis label
       y = NULL,  # Remove Y-axis label
       title = "Political Orientation by Gender",  # Main title
       subtitle = "Comparing the percentage distribution of left vs. right for Sweden (2002-2020)") +  # Subtitle

  # Adjust visual properties of the plot
  theme(plot.title = element_text(size = 16, face = "bold"),  # Format title
        plot.subtitle = element_text(size = 12),  # Format subtitle
        axis.title.y = element_blank(),  # Remove Y-axis title
        legend.position = "bottom")  # Position the legend at the bottom

# Display the ggplot object
lrscale_plot_v2

Task 5

Provide code and answer: In Hungary, what is the conditional probability of NOT feeling close to any particular party given that the person lives in a rural area?

hungary_data <- read.fst("hungary_data.fst")

hungary_data <- hungary_data %>%
  mutate(
    geo = recode(as.character(domicil), 
                 '1' = "Urban", 
                 '2' = "Urban",
                 '3' = "Rural", 
                 '4' = "Rural", 
                 '5' = "Rural",
                 '7' = NA_character_,
                 '8' = NA_character_,
                 '9' = NA_character_)
  ) %>%
  filter(!is.na(lrscale), !is.na(geo))  # Removing rows with NA in clsprty or geo
hungary_data <- hungary_data %>%
    mutate(
    lrscale = case_when(
      lrscale %in% 4:6 ~ "Middle",       # Middle-wing (4 to 6)
      TRUE ~ NA_character_  
    )    
  ) 
cond <- hungary_data %>% 
  count(lrscale, geo) %>%
  group_by(geo) %>%
  mutate(prob = n / sum(n))

cond
## # A tibble: 4 × 4
## # Groups:   geo [2]
##   lrscale geo       n  prob
##   <chr>   <chr> <int> <dbl>
## 1 Middle  Rural  4923 0.418
## 2 Middle  Urban  1984 0.410
## 3 <NA>    Rural  6864 0.582
## 4 <NA>    Urban  2856 0.590

Therefore, there is a 41.76635% conditional probability that someone who lives in a rural area does not feel close to any particular party, or in other words, does not lean to the left or right.

```