The group stage of the Asian Cup has come and gone, and for the most part things are as expected - China and Vietnam are the two biggest surprises for teams that didn’t make it, with our model giving them both >50% chances of qualifying at the start of the tournament; on the flipside, four teams (Syria, Palestine, Indonesia, and debutants Tajikistan) have all reached the knockout stage for the first time, Indonesia the most surprising of those based on past form and our pre-tournament ratings.
Of course, past form counts for little and it’s only current events that tell you which teams are and aren’t gunning for the title, which is why we’ve been incorporating form into our tournament predictions. It works on a pretty similar principle to the general ratings, judging the number of goals a team has scored/conceded against an expected tally, but only focusing on the games at the current tournament. We increase how important it is as the tournament goes on, so after the group stage, here’s the ratings that contribute 30% of a match’s expected result (for only the teams left):
| Team | FDiff | ADiff | TDiff |
|---|---|---|---|
| IRQ | 1.16761 | -0.16519 | 1.33280 |
| IRN | 0.16289 | -0.40648 | 0.56938 |
| JOR | 0.38052 | -0.15490 | 0.53542 |
| THA | -0.63987 | -1.15746 | 0.51759 |
| UZB | -0.27624 | -0.77496 | 0.49872 |
| KSA | -0.17229 | -0.62245 | 0.45016 |
| TJK | -0.44599 | -0.88392 | 0.43793 |
| AUS | -0.28655 | -0.69510 | 0.40856 |
| SYR | -0.79603 | -1.19339 | 0.39736 |
| QAT | -0.44176 | -0.75620 | 0.31444 |
| PLE | 0.18128 | -0.10855 | 0.28984 |
| BHR | -0.33492 | -0.56675 | 0.23183 |
| KOR | 0.89810 | 0.86318 | 0.03492 |
| JPN | 0.48715 | 0.49260 | -0.00545 |
| UAE | -0.05303 | 0.00937 | -0.06240 |
| IDN | -0.37552 | 0.08925 | -0.46477 |
Far and away, Iraq have the strongest form, which is mostly based on their goalscoring record at this tournament being much better than expected beforehand - expected to have only scored 4.5 goals through the group stage, based on their opponents, they’ve managed to put through 8, more than one extra per game. Perhaps the most defensively minded team at the tournament, Syria, has the strongest defensive rating, with them and Thailand the only teams who’ve conceded one goal fewer per game than we expected them to. Unsurprisingly, for a limited reference frame like a three-match group stage, the teams that make it through are the teams in good form; Indonesia’s showing - which has been competent but not overly inspiring - saw them through despite underperforming by more than China or Oman did.
Doubtless because of that, their round of 16 game against Australia is the second most lopsided matchup of all eight games (only Qatar v Palestine is more uneven, and even then that could be our overrating of the importance of home ground advantage), and Indonesia are the least likely team to win the title. We still stick with having Qatar as favourites, not just due to the Palestine game - if they play Thailand in the quarter-finals they’ll go in comfortably expected to win, and would start as the tip against Uzbekistan. Australia, meanwhile, would face the difficult task of either Saudi Arabia or South Korea (and that game is almost 50/50, as is Iraq v Jordan) in the quarter-finals.
Here’s the projections from 10,000 simulations:
| Team | Opponent | Quarter Finals | Semi Finals | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QAT | PLE | 7391 | 4994 | 3113 | 2120 |
| JPN | BHR | 6809 | 3995 | 2134 | 1250 |
| IRN | SYR | 7016 | 3683 | 1820 | 1089 |
| AUS | IDN | 7067 | 3793 | 2176 | 1010 |
| UZB | THA | 5960 | 2602 | 1280 | 739 |
| IRQ | JOR | 5090 | 3049 | 1572 | 651 |
| KOR | KSA | 4901 | 2551 | 1358 | 615 |
| KSA | KOR | 5099 | 2712 | 1466 | 610 |
| JOR | IRQ | 4910 | 2934 | 1476 | 600 |
| UAE | TJK | 5322 | 2215 | 925 | 319 |
| THA | UZB | 4040 | 1327 | 515 | 224 |
| TJK | UAE | 4678 | 1802 | 698 | 224 |
| BHR | JPN | 3191 | 1292 | 443 | 184 |
| PLE | QAT | 2609 | 1077 | 349 | 146 |
| SYR | IRN | 2984 | 1030 | 346 | 131 |
| IDN | AUS | 2933 | 944 | 329 | 88 |