Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update

Author

DevLab@Penn

Published

January 24, 2024

Introduction

We have updated data and forecasts for Colombia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Algeria, Liberia, Malawi, South Africa, and Kyrgyzstan. We are forecasting major events for El Salvador, Malawi, South Africa, Kyrgyzstan.

In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.

We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.

MLP Website: here

PW Protected Page: here (email mlpeace-devlab@sas.upenn.edu for access)

Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here

Civic Space Early Warning System

Colombia

For Colombia, our data includes coverage through the end of October 2023. Since the data was last updated through July, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Corruption and Legal Action in August: There was a hearing against prominent politician Nicolás Petro and his ex-wife Day Vásquez, focusing on the evidence collected by prosecutor Beatriz Eugenia Nievas Caballero. The evidence suggests that Nicolás Petro had undeclared income, leading to allegations of money laundering and illicit enrichment. Also, former President Álvaro Uribe accused his successor, Juan Manuel Santos, of being involved in the Odebrecht bribery scandal.
  • Political Threats in August: Threatening pamphlets and house markings by the Self-Defenses Gaitanistas of Colombia (AGC) were reported in Ciudad Bolivar. General José James Roa Castañeda, the commander of the Metropolitan Police of Bucaramanga, received death threats on social media.
  • Non-lethal Violence in September: Clashes between the Central Staff, FARC dissidents, and the Eastern War Front of the ELN resulted in the displacement of over 1,000 people in Arauca. In Valle del Cauca, Claudia Ordóñez, a social leader and council candidate, was attacked.
  • Election Activity in October: Regional elections were held on October 29.
  • Election Irregularities in October: The Electoral Observation Mission (EOM) issued an alert regarding electoral risks, particularly in Bogotá, where 160 polling stations showed atypical behaviors. A report from Gustavo Petro’s government, released shortly before the regional elections on October 29, indicates that at least 553 candidates for mayoral and council positions could be disqualified from participating. In Gamarra, the voter registry headquarters were vandalized.
  • Troop Mobilization in October: Defense Minister Ivan Velásquez announced increased operations against FARC dissidents. In Tuluá, Valle del Cauca, the National Police launched a significant operation against organized crime, involving 200 uniformed officers.

Forecasting

In our May report, our standard models predicted a large increase in reporting on Corruption in Q3 and Q4 2023. Consistent with this prediction, we saw a sharp increase in reporting on Corruption in July and August.

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

El Salvador

For El Salvador, our data includes coverage through the end of October 2023. Since the data was last updated through July, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Arrests in August: A Salvadoran court ordered pre-trial detention for 40 individuals suspected of belonging to a transnational criminal organization involved in illegal money lending. In a military operation in Ilobasco, Cabañas, Special Forces captured two affiliates of the 18S gang.
  • Defamation Cases in October: A defamation case brought by Nuevas Ideas Representative Christian Guevara against San Salvador Councilman Héctor Silva proceeded through the courts generated high-profile coverage.
  • Legal Action in August: Community journalist Víctor Barahona was released on bail as part of the conditions set by the Second Court against Organized Crime for his parole. The Association of Journalists of El Salvador, Barahona was wrongly imprisoned for more than 11 months.
  • Corruption in August: Wilson Joronni Baires Granados, a former official in the mayor’s office of Usulután, was sentenced to eight years in prison for fraud. he public prosecutor proved that he deceived four people with false job promises in the mayor’s office, highlighting a significant case of public office abuse. Joel Sánchez, ARENA’s presidential candidate, sought to distance himself from his party’s history of corruption during a radio interview.
  • Purge/Replace in August: The Legislative Assembly took decisive actions against Erick García, including approving his dismissal and withdrawing his position as a Member of Parliament. Erick García’s political party responded by expelling him, a move prompted by recommendations from its Ethics Commission.
  • Political Cooperation in September: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) confirmed that it continues to maintain an open dialogue with the Salvadoran Government. This dialogue focuses on achieving fiscal consolidation. The Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, was officially welcomed by El Salvador. The visit, received by Felix Ulloa and President Nayib Bukele, included discussions on the signing of mutual cooperation memorandums across various sectors.
  • Activist organizations reported an alarming rise in online violence directed at women in politics. Organizations also highlighted rising levels of violence and inhumane treatment towards migrants crossing into El Salvador.

Forecasting

In our last report, our shock models predicted a shock to Non-lethal Violence in Q4 2023. Consistent with this prediction, we saw a shock to Non-lethal Violence in September.

In our last report, our standard models predicted a spike in Lethal Violence in Q1 2024. Our updated standard models are now predicting a much smaller spike in Lethal Violence in Q1.

Guatemala

For Guatemala, our data includes coverage through the end of October 2023. Since the data was last updated through July, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Irregular Transition in September: A series of controversial legal actions by the ruling party are aimed at invalidating the results from elections that were held in July. Actions such as raiding the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) and opening ballot boxes were cited as unprecedented and indicative of a move towards authoritarianism. There was significant public mobilization demanding the resignation of Attorney General Consuelo Porras and her close prosecutors.
  • Raids in September: The Special Prosecutor’s Office against Impunity (FECI) conducted several raids at the headquarters of the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE), involving the opening and inspection of electoral boxes.
  • Protests in October: The seventh day of pro-democracy demonstrations was marked by peaceful protests, despite previous threats and attacks. The protests continued throughout the month.
  • Non-lethal Violence in October: Three MP investigators were abducted by villagers in Tajumulco, San Marcos, on September 25. Gunmen on motorcycles, linked to the Barrio 18 gang, have been harassing and attacking bus drivers en route to the Atlantic. A driver threatened protestors with his vehicle during a demonstration in Aldea la Forgua, Zacapa. The protest was demanding the resignation of several officials.
  • Troop Mobilization in October: In Guatemala, there was significant mobilization of security forces, including the National Civil Police (PNC) and the Guatemalan Army, in response to various protests and blockades. Several confrontations were reported between protesters and security forces, leading to arrests and efforts to control escalating situations.
  • State of Emergency in October: In response to the ongoing blockades and demonstrations, the Guatemalan government, led by President Alejandro Giammattei, considered various measures but ruled out the declaration of a state of exception or siege.
  • Political Cooperation in October: President Giammattei called for peaceful compliance with the Constitutional Court’s provisions on demonstration limitations. He emphasized the blockades’ violation of various rights and proposed a truce.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Honduras

For Honduras, our data includes coverage through the end of October 2023. Since the data was last updated through July, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Election Irregularities in August: The National Party (PNH) was accused of trying to obstruct the election. The OHCHR called for parliamentarians with pending legal issues to abstain from voting. The National Congress of Honduras faced repeated cancellations and postponements of sessions, especially those meant to elect the Attorney General and Deputy Prosecutor.
  • Troop Mobilization In October: 600 officers of the National Police were deployed to maintain peace during a sporting event between Honduras and Cuba.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Algeria

For Algeria, our data includes coverage through the end of October 2023. Since the data was last updated through July, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Censorship in August: Multiple TV and radio stations were suspended throughout the month.
  • Legal Action in October: Abdelhamid Temmar, the former Minister of Participation and Investment Promotion, was sentenced in absentia to ten years in prison for acts related to corruption. There were significant legal proceedings involving various ministers and journalists. This included the postponement of the trial of Louisa Hannan, former Secretary-General of the Labour Party, in a defamation case brought against her by former Minister of Culture, Nadia Abidi.

Forecasting

In our last update, our standard forecasting models predicted a small increase in the Civic Space Index in Q1 2024. Our updated models are still predicting a small spike in Q1.

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Liberia

For Liberia, our data includes coverage through the end of October 2023. Since the data was last updated through July, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Lethal Violence in September: In Foya, Lofa County, a violent clash occurred between supporters of the ruling Coalition for Democratic Change (CDC) and the opposition Unity Party (UP), resulting in at least three fatalities and several injuries.
  • Non-lethal Violence in October: In the lead-up to the October 10 elections in Liberia, there were violent clashes between supporters of the ruling Coalition for Democratic Change (CDC) and the Unity Party (UP), as well as the All Liberian Coalition Party (ALCOP). The National Elections Commission (NEC) of Liberia expressed deep concern over these instances of violence, emphasizing their commitment to a violence-free election process in line with the Farmington River Declaration.
  • Troop Mobilization in September: Both ECOWAS and the EU Election Observation Mission deployed election observers in Liberia.
  • Election Activity in October: Presidential elections were held in October.
  • Election Irregularities in October: The National Elections Commission (NEC) in Liberia addressed several instances of alleged malpractices during the elections. The Commission assured all political parties, candidates, and stakeholders that these malpractices were corrected and did not affect the election outcomes. The Unity Party, along with other opposition parties, was involved in raising concerns about election-related violence. There were reports of harassment, intimidation, attacks, and even murder by supporters of opposition candidate Joseph N Boakai.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Malawi

For Malawi, our data includes coverage through the end of October 2023. Since the data was last updated through July, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Civic Activism in September: There were high levels of reporting on NGO initiatives aimed at various causes including closing the gender wage gap, addressing reproductive health, and men’s rights to see their children after divorce.

Forecasting

Our shock models are predicting a shock to Defamation Cases in Q1 2024 and Purge/Replace in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024.

South Africa

For South Africa, our data includes coverage through the end of October 2023. Since the data was last updated through July, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Legal Changes in September: South Africa’s parliament took action on numerous significant pieces of legislation. Among the most critical legal changes being considered were the Electoral Reform Panel’s recommendations regarding major changes to the country’s elections, a bill proposing changes to the Independent Police Investigative Directorate, and the potential passage of the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) Amendment Bill, pivotal for justice and combating state capture.

Forecasting

In our last update, our shock models predicted a shock to Legal Changes in Q3 and Q4 2023. Consistent with this forecast, we saw a shock to Legal Changes in September.

Our shock models are predicting a shock to Legal Actions in Q4 2023.

Kyrgyzstan

For Kyrgyzstan, our data includes coverage through the end of October 2023. Since the data was last updated through July, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Purge/Replace in September: There were significant changes in government positions, including the reassignment of the former Minister of Health to the position of Minister of Labour. This was part of a broader reshuffling by President Sadir Zhaparov. The Supreme Court experienced notable changes, with the Parliamentary Committee on Constitutional Legislation releasing Judge Gulbar Kaliev from office ahead of schedule.
  • Political Cooperation in October: A meeting of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council began at the State residence of Ala Archa in Bishkek. This meeting involved discussions on interaction and strengthening cooperation among member countries. A meeting between the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the President of Kyrgyzstan, Sadir Japarov, was held in Bishkek.
  • Election Irregularities in August: The Central Election Commission (CEC) of Kyrgyzstan played a pivotal role in the election process, with several instances of rejecting candidate registrations for parliamentary elections. The Bishkek city court and the Supreme Court were involved in adjudicating matters related to parliamentary election results and candidate registrations.

Forecasting

In our June report, our shock models predicted an increase in Purge/Replace in Q3 2023. Consistent with this forecast, we saw a shock to Purge/Replace in September.

In our last report, our shock models predicted a shock to Corruption in Q1 2023. Our updated models are no longer predicting a shock to Corruption in Q1.

Our standard forecasting models are predicting a spike in Legal Actions in Q2 2024.