After matchday 1 gave us a largely expected set of results, we had a few bigger surprises in the second set of games, with some of the big favourites being weaker than expected. Japan lost to Iraq after being down most of the game, and a late own goal gave South Korea a perhaps undeserved point against Jordan; while Syria pushed Australia and most of the other games were competitive. Of course, because of the nature of 24 teams being reduced to 16, the strongest teams should all still make it through, although there’s enough to suggest that things could get exciting in the knockout stage. The biggest beneficiaries so far have been Iran, who’ve doubled their chances of winning the tournament since it started and now remain favourites; in fact, their chances have pretty much exactly swapped with Japan.
Group by group:
Qatar will play their final group A game already assured of finishing first, with the winner of Takijistan and Lebanon’s clash effectively guaranteed to go through; China would need to scrap some points against the host country.
Australia have sewn up qualification from group B, and Uzbekistan have effectively done so as well (there’s a minute possibility they finish third and could potentially miss from there, but it didn’t show up in our simulations). India would need a win over Syria to get through, while a draw would likely eliminate both.
The situation for group C is the same as group B, with Iran guaranteed passage and the UAE very likely to follow them in, while the Palestine v Hong Kong clash would need a win from the latter and probably the former as well.
Group D, thanks to the rules of the tournament, has seen Vietnam already eliminated (a problem we alluded to in our earlier writeup). Japan and Indonesia are both highly likely to qualify, and a draw would probably see both through, while Iraq have guaranteed it already.
Group E, the only group without a 2-0 team, has its top three guaranteed in some order - Jordan, South Korea, and Bahrain will all make it through, while Malaysia are eliminated.
Saudi Arabia top Group F and will qualify, and Thailand are guaranteed to join them if they get any points from that clash. Oman would likely need a win over Kyrgyzstan, who would definitely need to win.
| Team | Group 1st | Group 2nd | Group 3rd | Group 4th | Round of 16 | Quarter Finals | Semi Finals | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IRN | 7426 | 2574 | 0 | 0 | 10000 | 9157 | 7037 | 4067 | 2364 |
| QAT | 10000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10000 | 8033 | 5395 | 3452 | 2246 |
| JPN | 1417 | 6442 | 2078 | 63 | 8296 | 4613 | 3328 | 2079 | 1191 |
| JOR | 5507 | 2546 | 1947 | 0 | 10000 | 5082 | 3363 | 1984 | 981 |
| KOR | 3757 | 5924 | 319 | 0 | 10000 | 5235 | 3109 | 1721 | 793 |
| AUS | 6414 | 3586 | 0 | 0 | 10000 | 6428 | 2371 | 1330 | 600 |
| KSA | 7179 | 2821 | 0 | 0 | 10000 | 5041 | 1949 | 1023 | 429 |
| UAE | 2574 | 6732 | 694 | 0 | 9994 | 5704 | 2361 | 963 | 349 |
| UZB | 3586 | 6013 | 401 | 0 | 10000 | 6117 | 1273 | 657 | 285 |
| IRQ | 8470 | 1530 | 0 | 0 | 1530 | 705 | 503 | 296 | 138 |
| THA | 2821 | 5605 | 1574 | 0 | 9995 | 4033 | 833 | 367 | 129 |
| IDN | 113 | 2028 | 6529 | 1330 | 7135 | 2135 | 873 | 341 | 105 |
| BHR | 736 | 1530 | 7564 | 170 | 8287 | 2356 | 945 | 343 | 96 |
| TJK | 0 | 5190 | 2198 | 2612 | 5874 | 2251 | 785 | 271 | 80 |
| CHN | 0 | 2512 | 7105 | 383 | 3874 | 1462 | 522 | 177 | 56 |
| OMA | 0 | 1574 | 6287 | 2139 | 5991 | 1926 | 571 | 192 | 56 |
| SYR | 0 | 401 | 7077 | 2522 | 5144 | 1595 | 441 | 126 | 40 |
| PLE | 0 | 694 | 6566 | 2740 | 4887 | 1172 | 370 | 119 | 31 |
| LBN | 0 | 2298 | 697 | 7005 | 2584 | 783 | 217 | 49 | 12 |
| VIE | 0 | 0 | 1393 | 8607 | 1205 | 338 | 97 | 43 | 9 |
| KGZ | 0 | 0 | 2139 | 7861 | 1384 | 289 | 80 | 20 | 5 |
| IND | 0 | 0 | 2522 | 7478 | 1286 | 254 | 53 | 9 | 3 |
| HKG | 0 | 0 | 2740 | 7260 | 2419 | 243 | 49 | 10 | 2 |
| MAS | 0 | 0 | 170 | 9830 | 115 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 |