Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update

Introduction

We have updated data and forecasts for Albania, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Turkey, Ukraine, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Philippines, and Malaysia. We are forecasting major events for Belarus, Cambodia, Turkey, and Philippines.

In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.

We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.

MLP Website: here

PW Protected Page: here (email mlpeace-devlab@sas.upenn.edu for access)

Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here

Civic Space Early Warning System

Albania

For Albania, our data includes coverage through the end of November 2023. Since the data was last updated through August, we saw increases in reporting on:

• Purge/replace in September: Prime Minister Edi Rama initiated significant changes within his government and the Socialist Party (SP). These changes reflect a reorganization in the administration.
• Political Cooperation in September: President Bajram Begaj met with the European Union’s Special Envoy.
• Non-lethal Violence in September: A police officer was attacked and severely beaten by a group of men in Tirana. Several instances of gun violence occurred throughout the country, including at least one involving a police officer.
• Legal Action in October: Sali Berisha, a former Prime Minister of Albania, was put under investigation for corruption after the discovery of a substantial amount of money.
• Legal Changes in November: The Albanian government proposed a substantial tax increase, estimated at 70 million euros.

Forecasting

In our last report, our shock models predicted a spike in reporting on Lethal Violence in Q3 2023. Consistent with this prediction, we saw a spike in our Lethal Violence measure in September 2023.

In our August update, our shock models were predicting a spike in reporting on Defamation Cases in Q1 2024. Our updated models are still predicting this spike, but the accuracy of these updated models has fallen below our reporting threshold.

Belarus

For Belarus, our data includes coverage through the end of November 2023. Since the data was last updated through August, we saw increases in reporting on:

• Election Activity in November: There were announcements and preparations for upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections. This includes statements from electoral officials about the timing and structure of these elections. There was also discussion about local election campaigns, including the strategies and profiles of various candidates.
• Corruption in September: Multiple high-ranking officials, including former ministers and company directors, were convicted or investigated for bribery and corruption.

Forecasting

In our last report, our standard models predicted elevated levels of reporting on Protests and the Civic Space Index in Q1 2024. Our updated models are still predicting a spike in our Protest measure but not in our Civic Space Index.

In our last report, our shock models also predicted a shock to reporting on Non-Lethal Violence in Q4 2023. However, we did not see a shock in the first two months of Q4.

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Georgia

For Georgia, our data includes coverage through the end of November 2023. Since the data was last updated through August, we saw increases in reporting on:

• Purge/replace in September: The governing party made plans to impeach President Salome Zurabishvili, while the opposition party made plans to impeach Prime Minister Irakli Gharibashvili.
• Irregular Transition in September: There were widely reported rumors of an attempted coup intended to overthrow the Georgian President. Many believe this was an attempt to undermine Georgia’s EU candidacy.
• Lethal Violence in November: Russian forces killed a Georgian citizen near the village of Kirbali.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Kazakhstan

For Kazakhstan, our data includes coverage through the end of November 2023. Since the data was last updated through August, we saw increases in reporting on:

• Arrests in October: An individual was arrested in Almaty for spreading terrorist ideologies. The arrest in Almaty State was part of a broader effort to curb the spread of radical ideologies and terrorist propaganda.
• Censorship in September: There were multiple reports throughout the month of reporters not being allowed to cover elections, sometimes being forcibly removed from polling stations.
• Purge/replace in September: Various political actors were relieved from their posts, including the President of the National Bank, the Deputy Attorney-General, and the Minister of the Interior.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Kosovo

For Kosovo, our data includes coverage through the end of November 2023. Since the data was last updated through August, we saw increases in reporting on:

• Raids in September: EULEX police officials have been conducting raids throughout the month, including a raid on the home of Behar Berisha, a former KLA member.
• Lethal Violence September: Police officers were killed in a terrorist attack at the Jarinje border point in Northern Kosovo.
• Non-lethal Violence September: Following a terrorist attack in northern Kosovo, there was an attack by civilians on the Kosovo Police.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

North Macedonia

For Macedonia, our data includes coverage through the end of November 2023. Since the data was last updated through August, we did not see reporting on any major events.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Turkey

For Turkey, our data includes coverage through the end of November 2023. Since the data was last updated through August, we saw increases in reporting on:

• Arrests in October: An operation was led by the Istanbul Security Directorate’s Anti-Terror Branch targeting members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a group that carried out suicide bombings in Ankara earlier in the month.
• Corruption in November: A major money laundering operation was uncovered, implicating well-known figures in Turkish football and politics, including Arda Turan and Muslera. The operation reveals extensive illegal financial activities among elite sports and political circles. In a significant legal development, around 99,000 individuals were acquitted in cases related to the July 15 coup attempt.
• Protests in October: Tens of thousands gathered to march in celebration of the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Republic of Turkey. A significant protest erupted in response to a decision related to Can Atalay, a Member of Parliament.
• Non-lethal and Lethal Violence in October: Two suicide bombings were carried about by the PKK in Ankara. A violent knife fight occurred between two groups large of men in the Çayırova neighborhood of Kopeeli District. A similar deadly fight broke out between two groups in Avevile, resulting in at least one fatality.
• Violence in October: Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan addressed recent terrorist attacks targeting Ankara.
• Legal Action in November: Turkey releaseed a U.S. Istanbul Consulate employee three years after he was convicted of aiding a terrorist organisation.

Forecasting

In our May report, our standard models predicted a spike in Lethal Violence in Q3 and Q4. Consistent with this prediction, we saw spikes in violence in August and October.

In our August report, our shock models predicted a spike in Defamation Cases in Q1 2024. Our updated shock models are still predicting this shock, but the accuracy of these updated models has fallen below our reporting threshold. However, our updated standard models are also predicting a small spike in reporting on Defamation Cases in Q1.

Ukraine

For Ukraine, our data includes coverage through the end of November 2023. Since the data was last updated through August, we did not see reporting on any major events.

Forecasting

Due to the impact of the Russian invasion on Ukraine’s data and the interruption of historical patterns that our models rely on to make predictions, we do not publish forecasts for Ukraine.

Bangladesh

For Bangladesh, our data includes coverage through the end of November 2023. Since the data was last updated through August, we saw increases in reporting on:

• Legal Changes in September: Bangladesh’s Minister of Law, Justice, and Parliamentary Affairs proposed a radical change in laws covering journalism, which could significantly impact media freedom.
• Non-lethal Violence in October: Throughout the month there was violence related to political clashes, particularly involving the BNP. These events include street protests, rallies, or confrontations with law enforcement or opposition groups.
• Arrests in November: A senior party secretary was detained. Police arrested 34 persons, including leaders and members of the Jamaat-e-Islami party. The case relates to charges that could have broader implications for the political landscape and party dynamics in Bangladesh.
• Protests in November: The arrest of five leaders of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) sparked protests and heightened political tensions. The Islamic Movement organized a protest in response to an announcement by the Election Commission.
• Purge/replace in November: The Minister of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) tendered his resignation. The cabinet accepted the resignations of several ministers and issued new office orders, indicating a significant reshuffle in the government’s structure.
• Election Activity in November: The Bangladesh Election Commission began preparations for the 12th National Assembly elections.
• Political Cooperation in November: With the upcoming 12th National Assembly elections, various parties sent letters to the Election Commission discussing election-related matters. Sarah Cook, a British High Commissioner for the UK, has been meeting with representatives from the Awami League and other parties in Bangladesh.
• Troop Mobilization in November: The Bangladeshi Army initiated a support program for the poor people living in the mountainous areas. This program aimed at providing essential supplies and assistance to these communities.

Forecasting

In our last report, our standard models predicted an increase in reporting on Non-lethal Violence in Q1 2024. We saw a large spike in our Non-lethal Violence measure a few months early in October 2023. Our updated models are not predicting another spike in Q1 2024.

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Cambodia

For Cambodia, our data includes coverage through the end of November 2023. Since the data was last updated through August, we did not see reporting on any major events.

Forecasting

Our shock models are predicting an increase in reporting on Arrests in Q2 2024. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Malaysia

For Malaysia, our data includes coverage through the end of November 2023. Since the data was last updated through August, we saw increases in reporting on:

• Protests in September: Throughout the month, thousands of Malaysians attended rallies in support of Palestinian independence.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Philippines

For Philippines, our data includes coverage through the end of November 2023. Since the data was last updated through August, we saw increases in reporting on:

• Legal Action in October: The Department of Justice (DOJ) initiated an investigation into the death of a pupil, highlighting a case of significant public concern. Former Health Secretary and current Iloilo Representative Janette Garin, along with four others, are facing graft charges related to the handling of pandemic supplies.
• Corruption in October: The Department of Transportation (DOTr) ordered Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory Board (LTFRB) officials to explain corruption charges. The Sandiganbayan, a special appellate court in the Philippines, is set to resume a corruption case against former Senator Juan Ponce Enrile.
• Troop Mobilization in October: The Philippine National Police (PNP) dispatched over 27,000 officers to ensure security and order. In the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), 1,200 cops were assigned to work as poll workers for elections after teachers declined to serve.
• Political Cooperation in November: Following a bilateral meeting, the Philippines secured P583 million in grants from Japan.

Forecasting

Our standard models are predicting increased reporting on Legal Actions in Q1 2024. Our shock models are predicting a shock to Troop Mobilization in Q2 2024.