The first match for each team in the Asian Cup did see a bunch of good football, but didn’t really see any unexpected results - Tajikistan’s debut performance, scrapping out a 0-0 draw with China, was perhaps the biggest surprise. Unsurprisingly, because of this there haven’t been many real changes with the likelihood for each team winning; the favourites have had their numbers boosted because of the expected weaker teams becoming more likely to drop out after losing their first game. The biggest improvers, by percentage points, are Jordan, who’ve gone all the way to a ~9.6% chance of making a breakthrough and winning the Asian Cup (they were at ~5.2% before matchday 1); the biggest drop is Japan’s, who are still a very strong chance of winning but perhaps would’ve wanted to have done it more easily against Vietnam.
Going group by group with our new projections - which include, to some extent, whatever form we can extrapolate from the first game:
Qatar are now all but certain to make their way out of group A and should go far into the tournament, while the draw between China and Tajikistan has made finishing second vastly more important for both of the teams.
Australia are very likely to move on from group B, with Uzbekistan being in a pretty solid position to come second.
Iran have the best chance of winning their group, C, out of any team in the tournament thanks to a 4-1 drubbing of Palestine, while the United Arab Emirates are also almost definitely making it through after a win over minnows Hong Kong.
Despite going behind for some time in their opening group D clash, Japan would be near-certainties to qualify for the next round and are almost 50/50 to make the semis at least. Iraq are also a good chance of going far.
South Korea and Jordan are all but assured of coming out of group E in first and second in some order; Bahrain are much more likely than Malaysia to potentially move on by finishing third.
Thailand have started off group F with a win and could finish anywhere in the group, especially given Saudi Arabia’s weak performance against Oman - the former are still group favourites, while the latter are an outside chance of qualifying.
| Team | Group 1st | Group 2nd | Group 3rd | Group 4th | Round of 16 | Quarter Finals | Semi Finals | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QAT | 8435 | 1182 | 343 | 40 | 9951 | 7795 | 5571 | 3644 | 2401 |
| JPN | 7184 | 2246 | 526 | 44 | 9925 | 7028 | 4924 | 3267 | 1950 |
| IRN | 7273 | 2428 | 281 | 18 | 9967 | 6911 | 3998 | 2170 | 1210 |
| KOR | 4683 | 4550 | 721 | 46 | 9879 | 5754 | 3672 | 2056 | 1009 |
| JOR | 5120 | 3857 | 993 | 30 | 9928 | 5648 | 3642 | 2081 | 956 |
| AUS | 6660 | 2149 | 1034 | 157 | 9762 | 6423 | 2786 | 1402 | 664 |
| IRQ | 2491 | 5009 | 2225 | 275 | 9422 | 4103 | 2328 | 1099 | 401 |
| UAE | 2573 | 5416 | 1900 | 111 | 9588 | 5084 | 2163 | 859 | 296 |
| KSA | 5354 | 3426 | 1037 | 183 | 9712 | 4937 | 1580 | 700 | 287 |
| THA | 3999 | 3675 | 2131 | 195 | 9576 | 4239 | 1103 | 459 | 169 |
| UZB | 2114 | 3790 | 2676 | 1420 | 7679 | 4222 | 1014 | 451 | 153 |
| CHN | 854 | 3905 | 3252 | 1989 | 6497 | 2805 | 1029 | 374 | 120 |
| VIE | 203 | 2034 | 4242 | 3521 | 5120 | 1691 | 809 | 365 | 98 |
| OMA | 518 | 2310 | 4509 | 2663 | 6020 | 2220 | 529 | 194 | 67 |
| TJK | 625 | 3223 | 3680 | 2472 | 5880 | 2225 | 710 | 236 | 58 |
| BHR | 136 | 1178 | 5736 | 2950 | 4908 | 1412 | 556 | 180 | 55 |
| IDN | 122 | 711 | 3007 | 6160 | 2781 | 737 | 274 | 90 | 28 |
| PLE | 115 | 1792 | 4837 | 3256 | 4977 | 1462 | 445 | 134 | 27 |
| SYR | 1040 | 2775 | 3586 | 2599 | 6108 | 2324 | 373 | 95 | 23 |
| LBN | 86 | 1690 | 2725 | 5499 | 3059 | 895 | 245 | 60 | 9 |
| IND | 186 | 1286 | 2704 | 5824 | 3217 | 915 | 122 | 30 | 8 |
| MAS | 61 | 415 | 2550 | 6974 | 1797 | 355 | 99 | 28 | 6 |
| KGZ | 129 | 589 | 2323 | 6959 | 2245 | 524 | 85 | 14 | 3 |
| HKG | 39 | 364 | 2982 | 6615 | 2002 | 291 | 55 | 12 | 2 |