Week 17 - Championship Edition!

Merry Christmas you filthy animals! Here are the updates for this week! Congrats to the players who made it to the championship! Good luck!

Methods

All info here is sourced from the nflfastr package which collects play by play data about every single game. I used R to organize the data and create the visuals you see. This newsletter was created using Rmarkdown and LaTEX.

Fantasy Football Data

Efficiency

Rush Yds - Last Week

This graph shows the top 30 or so running backs in terms of yards gained last week. It also shows in how many plays each player has been trusted with the ball. I colored the dots to help highlight the efficiency of certain running backs. The colored tiers help rank players by their efficiency, the better, more explosive players have a higher ranking (5+).

This chart displays data for the past week to highlight a back’s most recent usage.

Rush Yds - Past 4 Weeks

ELI5: The brighter the color, the better the player.

This graph shows the top 30 or so running backs in terms of yards gained this season. It also shows in how many plays each player has been trusted with the ball. I colored the dots to help highlight the efficiency of certain running backs. The colored tiers help rank players by their efficiency, the better, more explosive players have a higher ranking (5+).

This chart displays data for the past four weeks to highlight recent trends.

Rush Yrds - All Season

ELI5: The brighter the color, the better the player.

This graph shows the top 30 or so running backs in terms of yards gained this season. It also displays how many plays each player has been trusted with the ball. I colored the dots to help highlight the efficiency of certain running backs. The colored tiers help rank players by their efficiency, the better, more explosive players have a higher ranking (5+).

This chart displays data for the entire season.

Rec Yrds - Last Week

ELI5: The brighter the color, the better the player.

This graph shows the top 30 or so receivers in terms of yards gained this season as well as in how many plays they were targeted with a pass. I colored the dots to help highlight the efficiency of certain receivers. The colored tiers help rank players by their efficiency, the better, more explosive players have a higher ranking (5+).

This chart displays data for the past four weeks to highlight recent trends.

Rec Yrds - Past 4 Weeks

ELI5: The brighter the color, the better the player.

This graph shows the top 30 or so receivers in terms of yards gained this season as well as in how many plays they were targeted with a pass. I colored the dots to help highlight the efficiency of certain receivers. The colored tiers help rank players by their efficiency, the better, more explosive players have a higher ranking (5+).

This chart displays data for the past four weeks to highlight recent trends.

Rec Yrds - All Season

ELI5: The brighter the color, the better the player.

This graph shows the top 30 or so wide receivers in terms of yards gained this season as well as in how many plays they were targeted with a pass. I colored the dots to help highlight the efficiency of certain running backs. The colored tiers help rank players by their efficiency, the better, more explosive players have a higher ranking (5+).

This chart displays data for the entire season.

Targets and Receptions

WR / RB / TE - Last Week

ELI5: Start players who have the most opportunities to catch the ball and who succeed in doing so.

We play in a Half PPR league. That means that our players receive half a point per reception. This makes players who are target hogs valuable for your team. A target is an attempt by a quarterback to pass to a player, whether it is successfully caught or not. A reception is a successful catch when a receiver is targeted. Often times, quarterbacks will have a player on their team that acts as their security blanket when things get tough. Mahomes relies on Kelce, Tua relies on Tyreek Hill, Josh Allen relies on Stefon Diggs. Every team has a reliable dude who their quarterback can turn to when need be. You’ll see these players represented in the next couple of graphs.

Last week’s leaders in targets and receptions can be seen below. The green bar represents the number of successful catches by a player and the blue bar extends to represent the total times they were targeted by their QB.

WR / RB / TE - Past 4 Weeks

ELI5: Start players who have the most opportunities to catch the ball and who succeed in doing so.

As usual, its helpful to look at results in the past few weeks to see how players are currently trending. This helps especially since some players will pop off one week and then quiet down the next. Looking at a four week spread helps reduce the chances that you’ll fall for a player that has a “one and done” performance.

Leaders in targets and receptions through the last 4 weeks are listed below. The green bar represents the number of successful catches by a player and the blue bar extends to represent the total times they were targeted by their QB.

WR / RB / TE - All Season

ELI5: Start players who have the most opportunities to catch the ball and who succeed in doing so.

Season leaders in targets and receptions are listed below. The green bar represents the number of successful catches by a player and the blue bar extends to represent the total times they were targeted by their QB.

Target Share

Target Share - TE

ELI5: Play or pick up a tight end who plays a big role in their offense.

The tight end position is tricky to work with in fantasy football due to the fact that their role in an offense any given game can be unpredictable. A good tight end is a great blocker and decoy, and sometimes even the most talented players at that position will not earn many receiving yards due to the game script that the coaches drew up for that specific game.

To help balance the scales in our favor, we’ll look at target share. It compares the number of times as a percent that a tight end was targeted for a pass by a QB instead of his teammates. This helps reveal the most consistent options at the tight end position as well as some emerging stars. T. J. Hockenson (Vikings) is the clear leader over the past four weeks, in that time frame, in over 30% of the passes his quarterback attempted, the ball was sent in his direction. This chart lists the top tight ends in terms of target share over the last four weeks.

Target Share - WR

ELI5: Play or pick up a wide receiver who plays a big role in their offense.

Here is a chart showing target share just for wide receivers.

Target Share - RB

ELI5: Play or pick up a running back who plays a big role in their offense.

Here is a chart showing target share just for running backs.

Average Depth of Target

ADoT - Last Week

ELI5: These boys catch deep balls and/or run far with their catches.

Here is another chart for receivers. This chart tracks a receiver’s average depth of target (ADoT), or how far down field they tend to be when the QB attempts to make a pass to them. Here we compare a receiver’s ADoT to how many yards they have gained per target. If a receiver is high on this chart then they tend to do more with what they are given, no matter where they are on the field - if a receiver is further down (to the right) on this chart, they tend to see deeper passes which allows for more opportunities to make juicy, big plays.

This graph displays data soley from last week’s games.

ADoT - Past 4 Weeks

ELI5: These boys catch deep balls and/or run far with their catches.

Here is another chart for receivers. This chart tracks a receiver’s average depth of target (ADoT), or how far down field they tend to be when the QB attempts to make a pass to them. Here we compare a receiver’s ADoT to how many yards they have gained per target. If a receiver is high on this chart then they tend to do more with what they are given, no matter where they are on the field - if a receiver is further down (to the right) on this chart, they tend to see deeper passes which allows for more opportunities to make juicy, big plays.

As usual, we’ll track this over the past four weeks to be able to notice more recent trends in player performance.

ADoT - All Season

ELI5: These boys catch deep balls and/or run far with their catches.

Here is another chart for receivers. This chart tracks a receiver’s average depth of target (ADoT), or how far down field they tend to be when the QB attempts to make a pass to them. Here we compare a receiver’s ADoT to how many yards they have gained per target. If a receiver is high on this chart then they tend to do more with what they are given, no matter where they are on the field - if a receiver is further down (to the right) on this chart, they tend to see deeper passes which allows for more opportunities to make juicy, big plays.

This graph displays data for the entire season.

The Redzone

Redzone Targets - WR / RB / TE

ELI5: Start players who are given many opportunities to catch a pass in or near the endzone for a touchdown.

Equally, if not more important, is looking at the number of times a player is given a chance to score a touchdown. Touchdowns are six points each, so you’d ideally like to have players who are given many opportunities to score and can finish the job for a decent portion of those opportunities.

A redzone target is anytime that a player gets targeted within 20 yards of the endzone. Sometimes a player that is not scoring much has hidden upside, due to the fact that they are often trusted with the ball within the redzone. Even if they don’t score on most of their redzone targets, if they do have a high volume of redzone targets, you can expect that they will score eventually, which makes them a valuable stash (especially against teams with poor redzone defense).

Leaders in redzone targets and receiving touchdowns through the last 4 weeks are listed below. The red bar represents the number of touchdowns by a receiver and the blue bar extends to represent the total number of times they were targeted by their QB in the redzone.

Redzone Carries - RB

ELI5: Start players who are given many opportunities to run into the endzone to score touchdowns.

Redzone carries are a similar concept, but for running backs. For our purposes, it makes more sense to hone in our focus on plays run from within a 10 yard distance from the end zone. We call these “goal to go” situations, since a team is now actively trying to score instead of trying to achieve a first down.

A “goaline back” is a running back with a high number of carries outside of the endzone. Even if a running back doesn’t get much action from outside this range, they can be very valuable due to their use right outside the endzone.

Leaders in redzone carries and rushing touchdowns through the last 4 weeks are listed below. The red bar represents the number of touchdowns by a rusher and the blue bar extends to represent the total number of times they were handed the ball to try to carry within the redzone.

Quarterbacks

Quarterbacks get all the NFL glory for good reason. Having the right person at the helm of a team’s offense can propel a team to new heights - having the wrong person can motivate an owner to fire entire his entire coaching staff (like the Raiders lol). Here’s some charts to make sure that the right person is leading your team to the playoffs.

QB Pass vs. Rush - Last Week

ELI5: A strong man throws far, a fast man runs far. Get yourself a man who can do both.

In our league as well as in most leagues, quarterbacks gain 1 point for passing the ball 25 yards down field, but they gain 1 point for running the ball 10 yards down field themselves. I’m sure you can do the math, but I’ll spare you the brain power to say that this means that running the ball is worth 2.5 times as many points as passing the ball. This makes rushing quarterbacks a valuable asset to any fantasy football team. Often times, however, you’ll find that some of the quarterbacks that run the most are doing so to save their lives and livelihoods. Quarterbacks on teams with poor offensive lines have to scramble and scamper more often than teams with a solid set of big dudes protecting them and giving them time to pass down field. This often means lower chances of converting downs and, ultimately, lower chances of scoring. This is bad in fantasy and real life. All this to say, that some of the best quarterbacks for fantasy football purposes are dual threats. They are leaders in passing yards AND rushing yards. The following chart captures both.

Be mindful of the backup quarterbacks that have only recently earned a start for their teams due to injury or the usual starter getting benched. Players like Will Levis, Tyson Bagent, P.J. Walker, Gardner Minshew have recently entered the spotlight due to unforeseen circumstances and thus are lower in all stats as a result.

Here is a chart showcasing quarterback performance in last week’s games.

QB Pass vs. Rush - Past 4 Weeks

ELI5: A strong man throws far, a fast man runs far. Get yourself a man who can do both.

In our league as well as in most leagues, quarterbacks gain 1 point for passing the ball 25 yards down field, but they gain 1 point for running the ball 10 yards down field themselves. I’m sure you can do the math, but I’ll spare you the brain power to say that this means that running the ball is worth 2.5 times as many points as passing the ball. This makes rushing quarterbacks a valuable asset to any fantasy football team. Often times, however, you’ll find that some of the quarterbacks that run the most are doing so to save their lives and livelihoods. Quarterbacks on teams with poor offensive lines have to scramble and scamper more often than teams with a solid set of big dudes protecting them and giving them time to pass down field. This often means lower chances of converting downs and, ultimately, lower chances of scoring. This is bad in fantasy and real life. All this to say, that some of the best quarterbacks for fantasy football purposes are dual threats. They are leaders in passing yards AND rushing yards. The following chart captures both.

Be mindful of the backup quarterbacks that have only recently earned a start for their teams due to injury or the usual starter getting benched. Players like Will Levis, Tyson Bagent, P.J. Walker, Gardner Minshew have recently entered the spotlight due to unforeseen circumstances and thus are lower in all stats as a result.

Here is a chart showcasing recent trends in quarterback performances.

QB Pass vs. Rush - All Season

ELI5: A strong man throws far, a fast man runs far. Get yourself a man who can do both.

In our league as well as in most leagues, quarterbacks gain 1 point for passing the ball 25 yards down field, but they gain 1 point for running the ball 10 yards down field themselves. I’m sure you can do the math, but I’ll spare you the brain power to say that this means that running the ball is worth 2.5 times as many points as passing the ball. This makes rushing quarterbacks a valuable asset to any fantasy football team. Often times, however, you’ll find that some of the quarterbacks that run the most are doing so to save their lives and livelihoods. Quarterbacks on teams with poor offensive lines have to scramble and scamper more often than teams with a solid set of big dudes protecting them and giving them time to pass down field. This often means lower chances of converting downs and, ultimately, lower chances of scoring. This is bad in fantasy and real life. All this to say, that some of the best quarterbacks for fantasy football purposes are dual threats. They are leaders in passing yards AND rushing yards. The following chart captures both.

Be mindful of the backup quarterbacks that have only recently earned a start for their teams due to injury or the usual starter getting benched. Players like Will Levis, Tyson Bagent, P.J. Walker, Gardner Minshew have recently entered the spotlight due to unforeseen circumstances and thus are lower in all stats as a result.

Here is a chart showcasing quarterback performance over the entire season.

Defense

Run Def vs. Pass Def

ELI5: Use this to help decide whether your players have a good / decent / bad matchup.

The performance of each defense fluctuates throughout the season, sometimes due to injuries, sometimes due to coach staffing changes, and sometimes due to the strength of a teams schedule (read as: having to face more capable opponents). This chart shows at a glance what a team’s defensive strengths and weakness are in terms of stopping the run or shutting down passing plays.

Note that both the x and y axis have been reversed so that you intuitively see the best teams in the upper right hand quadrant. The Cowboys have a stingy defense against running and passing yards, and thus make for a difficult match up if you intend to start players the week they play the Cowboys. In other words, there’s a pretty good chance that your players score less fantasy points than usual against the Cowboys.

Teams like the Giants are a bright green flag - start anyone and everyone who faces them any given week.

Def EPA vs Off EPA

ELI5: Negative EPA for a defense is good. Positive EPA for an offense is good.

Similarly, we can compare offensive and defensive epas for all 32 teams. A defending team that produces plays with negative epas can be considered successful, since they are reducing their opponents chances of winning. An offense, as we mentioned before, that produces plays with positive epas can be considered successful, since their offensive scheme continually increases their chances of scoring at the end of the drive.

In this graph, teams that excel on offense and defense can be found in the upper right hand corner. Notice that the higher teams on this chart have a negative average defensive EPA. Teams like the Browns, Ravens, Cowboys, and Niners have a star studded defense and have been wrecking havoc on offenses across the league.

D/ST Stats

Defense / Special Teams Stats over the Past 4 Weeks
ELI5: Defenses and Special Teams Units get points for things like interceptions, fumbles, and touchdown returns.

As noted above, this table tallies all the extra things that good defenses do to score you extra points. Even if a defense allows 30 + points in a game, if they catch a few interceptions, get a few sacks, or even force a turn over that results in a touch down, they can be awesome to have in your line up.

In the Average Hoes League, teams also score points if they stop an offense on third or fourth down. The table below tallies that as well.

I’ve created a column that tallies all the points that D/STs have earned in the past four weeks for accomplishing these extra tasks. Keep in mind that points are also earned at the end of the game depending on how many points were scored against a defense, so the points column is not how these teams have actually scored over the past two weeks in fantasy football. Predicting how many yards a team will allow is difficult, so think of the points column as a way to look at how a team is capable of scoring extra points despite the number of points they allow to be scored against them in a game.

Commish Notes and Future Updates

If you have any questions or suggestions for what you’d like to see in this newsletter, please don’t hesitate to let me know! I’m still learning the in’s and out’s of R (language used to put this all together), and love to challenge myself when it comes to building meaningful visuals. All constructive criticism is appreciated greatly!

Thanks for joining me in this silly game! Fantasy Football is one of my top ten favorite things, and I’m glad I get to share it with friends!

Peace!

Commish Lo