LYE Keng Fook
27 Sep 2015
COE analyzer is a data product to study & predict COE price trends.
Certificate of Entitlement (COE Wikipedia) is Singapore's policy tool to manage motor vehicle population growth. One has to bid for a COE and register it together with a new car; used cars are sold together with the registered COE. Motor vehicles are categorized into 5 COE categories
| COE Category | Vehicle class |
|---|---|
| A | CAR UP TO 1600CC & 97KW |
| B | CAR ABOVE 1600CC OR 97KW |
| C | GOODS VEHICLE & BUS |
| D | MOTORCYCLE |
| E | OPEN, transferable & can be used for any vehicle |
COE prices fluctuates according to market supply/demand, and is generally associated to a few causes:
1. no. of COE's available for bidding
2. no. of bids submitted
3. no. of deregistered vehicles (COEs of deregistered vehicles are recycled for future bidding)
4. economic performance (as cars are a discretionary spend)
COE price data were obtained & merged from below 2 sources:
Obtained data link were cleaned & transformed.
Cleaned data link retains COE price data from bi-weekly biddings from Apr 2012 till Sep 2015.
Note: Quota & bids received data for CAT B,C,D,E were simulated owing to lack of time.
Summary statistics of COE prices for the 5 vehicle categories presented below
CAT.A CAT.B CAT.C CAT.D
Min. : 2 Min. : 200 Min. : 1 Min. : 1
1st Qu.:15349 1st Qu.:16296 1st Qu.: 8495 1st Qu.: 687
Median :28331 Median :28022 Median :16409 Median :1102
Mean :35088 Mean :40022 Mean :25479 Mean :1564
3rd Qu.:57049 3rd Qu.:68302 3rd Qu.:45251 3rd Qu.:1856
Max. :92100 Max. :96210 Max. :76310 Max. :6801
CAT.E
Min. : 3000
1st Qu.:17351
Median :28997
Mean :40912
3rd Qu.:68356
Max. :97889
Standard multivariate linear regression is used to model COE price movements. Example of model fit for CAT A COE
Call:
lm(formula = CAT.A ~ CAT.A.BIDS.RECV + CAT.A.QUOTA, data = coeDat)
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-28577 -8409 565 8795 34109
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 67562.173 1537.585 43.940 < 2e-16 ***
CAT.A.BIDS.RECV 5.082 1.751 2.902 0.00396 **
CAT.A.QUOTA -30.223 2.329 -12.975 < 2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Residual standard error: 13090 on 320 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.6787, Adjusted R-squared: 0.6767
F-statistic: 338 on 2 and 320 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16
All analysis's performed in this report are documented in GitHub (repository link)
More work is required to complete this data product.
1. Complete data collection for CAT B,C,D,E.
2. Add variables to improve model fit (e.g. stock indices, economy forecast)
3. Improve plotting, current graph plots are horrendous!