California Transcal Facts: Dec 13, 2023 Update
Olivia Martin
Fixed Number of Officers
Counting officers as full number of officers, not pruned number of officers (excluding those with limited history/future).
Fixed City Level HPI
Facts
Fact #1: There is considerable variation even in the pay of police officers – with a range from 45,575 to 206,821.
Person-Level Data
| base_plus_overtime | Base_Pay | Overtime_Pay | |
|---|---|---|---|
| n | 8209 | 8209 | 8209 |
| mean | 115923 | 93919 | 22004 |
| sd | 32285 | 18326 | 22122 |
| median | 111031 | 92837 | 16098 |
| min | 2906 | 2906 | 0 |
| max | 450373 | 218508 | 322071 |
| range | 447467 | 215602 | 322071 |
| skew | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| kurtosis | 6 | 2 | 14 |
| se | 356 | 202 | 244 |
| Q0.01 | 57219 | 47663 | 0 |
| Q0.05 | 75422 | 67233 | 774 |
| Q0.1 | 83133 | 72382 | 2556 |
| Q0.25 | 95117 | 83952 | 7485 |
| Q0.5 | 111031 | 92837 | 16098 |
| Q0.75 | 130861 | 104793 | 28842 |
| Q0.9 | 154229 | 117340 | 48062 |
| Q0.95 | 174797 | 125868 | 64339 |
| Q0.99 | 223608 | 135386 | 105578 |
Agency-Level Data
| base_plus_overtime | Base_Pay | Overtime_Pay | |
|---|---|---|---|
| n | 218 | 218 | 218 |
| mean | 109526 | 89521 | 20006 |
| sd | 25519 | 19235 | 10831 |
| median | 109602 | 88813 | 17673 |
| min | 45575 | 43403 | 0 |
| max | 206821 | 158108 | 63034 |
| range | 161246 | 114705 | 63034 |
| skew | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| kurtosis | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| se | 1728 | 1303 | 734 |
| Q0.01 | 58730 | 49320 | 1400 |
| Q0.05 | 69822 | 59911 | 5459 |
| Q0.1 | 76035 | 64470 | 8089 |
| Q0.25 | 92344 | 76417 | 12977 |
| Q0.5 | 109602 | 88813 | 17673 |
| Q0.75 | 125101 | 101955 | 25488 |
| Q0.9 | 143151 | 115549 | 34402 |
| Q0.95 | 151824 | 120282 | 41475 |
| Q0.99 | 169453 | 129585 | 52697 |
Fact #2: There is considerable correlation (coefficient = .39) between base pay and overtime pay
Agency-Level Data
Fact #3: Overtime is a larger share of compensation in places where total compensation is higher (this is partially mechanical)
Agency-Level Data
Fact #4: Big Cities Pay More
Agency-Level Data
Fact #5: Bigger Cities have more cops
Fact #6: Richer Places Pay More, and both size and wealth are significant if you income them both
##
## ===============================================
## Dependent variable:
## ---------------------------
## base_plus_overtime
## -----------------------------------------------
## log_pop 17,146.000***
## (2,587.000)
##
## log_income 75,370.000***
## (7,771.000)
##
## Constant -332,329.000***
## (39,396.000)
##
## -----------------------------------------------
## Observations 218
## R2 0.389
## Adjusted R2 0.384
## Residual Std. Error 20,032.000 (df = 215)
## ===============================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01Fact #7: There is no correlation between income and number of police officers once you control for city level population
##
## ===============================================
## Dependent variable:
## ---------------------------
## log_officers
## -----------------------------------------------
## log_pop 0.808***
## (0.035)
##
## log_income 0.048
## (0.104)
##
## Constant -2.520***
## (0.527)
##
## -----------------------------------------------
## Observations 218
## R2 0.717
## Adjusted R2 0.715
## Residual Std. Error 0.268 (df = 215)
## ===============================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01Fact #8: The Correlation between Pay and Crime Rates is negligible for violent crime – and there are lots of places with almost no crime that are paying cops a lot
Fact #9: Both violent and property crime predict the total number of police officers
##
## =====================================================
## Dependent variable:
## ---------------------------------
## log_officers
## (1) (2)
## -----------------------------------------------------
## log_prop_crime 0.675***
## (0.057)
##
## log_violent_crime 0.291***
## (0.045)
##
## log_pop 0.174*** 0.531***
## (0.060) (0.054)
##
## Constant -1.400*** -1.610***
## (0.146) (0.185)
##
## -----------------------------------------------------
## Observations 216 214
## R2 0.828 0.755
## Adjusted R2 0.826 0.753
## Residual Std. Error 0.209 (df = 213) 0.246 (df = 211)
## =====================================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01Fact #10 Liberal Places do not have fewer cops
##
## ===============================================
## Dependent variable:
## ---------------------------
## log_officers
## -----------------------------------------------
## demshare_pres_2016 0.135
## (0.085)
##
## log_violent_crime 0.099**
## (0.039)
##
## log_pop 0.875***
## (0.052)
##
## Constant -2.900***
## (0.183)
##
## -----------------------------------------------
## Observations 205
## R2 0.849
## Adjusted R2 0.846
## Residual Std. Error 0.191 (df = 201)
## ===============================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01Fact #11: Link Between Town Income and Wages Stronger for Firefighters than Cops
##
## =================================================
## Dependent variable:
## ---------------------------
## log_wages
## -------------------------------------------------
## log_pop 0.048***
## (0.008)
##
## fire_dummy -0.777***
## (0.253)
##
## log_income 0.055
## (0.036)
##
## fire_dummy:log_income 0.168***
## (0.052)
##
## -------------------------------------------------
## County FE Yes
## Observations 331
## R2 0.702
## Adjusted R2 0.648
## Residual Std. Error 0.066 (df = 279)
## =================================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01