The 2020 presidential election was historic in many ways. Amid a global pandemic, with unprecedented changes in how Americans voted, voter turnout rose 7 percentage points over 2016, resulting in a total of 66% of U.S. adult citizens casting a ballot in the 2020 election. Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump 306-232 in the Electoral College and had a 4-point margin in the popular vote. While Biden’s popular vote differential was an improvement over Hillary Clinton’s 2016 2-point advantage, it was not as resounding as congressional Democrats’ 9-point advantage over Republicans in votes cast in the 2018 elections for the U.S. House of Representatives.
AN EXAMINATION OF THE 2020 ELECTION NATIONALWIDE, BASED ON VALIDATED VOTERS
A number of factors determined the composition of the 2020 overall and explain how it delivered Biden a victory. Among those who voted for Clinton and Trump in 2016, similar shares of each – about nine-in-ten – also turned out in 2020, and the vast majority remained loyal to the same party in the 2020 presidential contest. These voters formed substantial bases of support for both Biden and Trump.
| year | party_simplified | totalvotes |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | DEMOCRAT | 65677288 |
| 2016 | LIBERTARIAN | 4125170 |
| 2016 | OTHER | 4292059 |
| 2016 | REPUBLICAN | 62692670 |
| 2020 | DEMOCRAT | 81268908 |
| 2020 | LIBERTARIAN | 1797355 |
| 2020 | OTHER | 1246094 |
| 2020 | REPUBLICAN | 74216146 |
| Year | Party | Candidate | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | DEMOCRAT | CLINTON, HILLARY | 49.5 |
| 2016 | REPUBLICAN | TRUMP, DONALD J. | 47.3 |
| 2020 | DEMOCRAT | BIDEN, JOSEPH R. JR | 51.9 |
| 2020 | REPUBLICAN | TRUMP, DONALD J. | 47.4 |
Both Trump and Biden were able to bring new voters into the political process in 2020. The 27,115,096 of 2020 voters who did not vote for Republican and Democratic in 2016 split unfairly between the two candidates (96% Biden vs. 4% Trump).
PARTY AND IDEOLOGY
# Data
Overall, there were shifts in presidential candidate support among some key groups between 2016 and 2020, notably suburban voters and independents(OTHER). On balance, these shifts helped Biden a little more than Trump.
Biden and Trump benefited from similar levels of party loyalty in 2020, with Trump receiving 92% support among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents and Biden getting 94% among Democrats and Democratic leaners. Comparable levels of support for each candidate were seen among Democrats (95% for Biden) and Republicans (94% for Trump), not including leaners. Among independents and those who affiliated with other parties, Biden led Trump by 52%-43%.
One somewhat unusual aspect of the 2016 election was the relatively high share of voters (nearly 6%) who voted for one of the third-party candidates (OTHER), a fact many observers attributed to the relative unpopularity of both major party candidates. By comparison, just 2% of voters chose a third-party candidate in 2020. Overall, third-party 2016 voters who turned out in 2020 voted 53%-36% for Biden over Trump, with 10% opting for a third-party candidate. Among the 5% of Republicans who voted third-party in 2016 and voted in 2020, a majority (70%) supported Trump in 2020, but 18% backed Biden. Among the 5% of Democrats who voted third-party in 2016 and voted in 2020, just 8% supported Trump in 2020 while 85% voted for Biden.
Column 1
OVERALL VOTE DISTRIBUTION-COUNTY LEVEL
WIDE SUBURBAN AND UBARN VOTE DIFFERENCES
KEY FINDINGS FROM ANALYSIS
Biden made gains with suburban voters.
In 2020, Biden improved upon Clinton’s vote share with suburban voters: 45% supported Clinton in 2016 vs. 54% for Biden in 2020.
Voters shift
There were shifts in presidential candidate support among some key groups between 2016 and 2020, notably independents(OTHER). On balance, these shifts helped Biden a little more than Trump.