Introduction

In the vibrant tapestry of American political landscapes, understanding the voting behaviors of distinct demographic groups is paramount for deciphering the intricacies of democratic participation. This project delves into the electoral dynamics of Cuban Americans, a community that has played a significant role in shaping the sociopolitical fabric of certain regions, particularly in Florida. By examining various facets of Cuban American voting patterns, ranging from party affiliation to agglomeration effects, this research seeks to unravel the nuanced interplay between demographic factors and political engagement. I used the Palm Beach Voter File and some cleaned up data by Professor Smith that showed if voters claimed to be Cuban upon registration.

Significance and Objectives

The Cuban American community, has emerged as a pivotal demographic in American politics, particularly in regions like Palm Beach County, Florida. The central question guiding this study is not merely how Cuban Americans vote, but rather, what factors influence their voting decisions and how these decisions are shaped by the presence of fellow Cubans in their precincts.

Key Objectives

  1. Voting Age Dynamics: Investigating the distribution of Cuban American voters across different age groups to discern if there are notable patterns in political engagement based on generational differences.

  2. Agglomeration Effects: Assessing whether the concentration of Cuban Americans within a precinct influences voter turnout, aiming to uncover potential agglomeration effects and community-level political engagement.

  3. Party Affiliation: Exploring the party preferences of Cuban American voters and understanding the factors that contribute to their alignment with specific political ideologies.

  4. Race Comparison: Investigating potential variations in voting patterns among Cuban Americans based on racial demographics, providing insights into the diverse perspectives within the community.

Voting Patterns by Agglomeration

Merging and Plotting Code Example
merged_data <- left_join(Cuba_voted2020GE, PAL_Precinct_Grp, by = "Precinct") %>%
  filter(!is.na(Cuba))
  
ggplot(merged_data, aes(x = PercentofCubans, y = as.numeric(freq), color = factor(Cuba))) +
  geom_point() +
  geom_smooth(method = "loess", se = FALSE, linetype = "dashed") +
  labs(
    title = "Voting Activity by Cuban Percentage in Precinct",
    x = "Percentage of Cubans in Precinct",
    y = "Percentage Voted in 2020",
    color = "Cuban"
  ) +
  theme_minimal()
Data Results (Cubans and none Cubans)

Data Results (Cubans)

Summary

The data suggests that the voting behavior of Cubans is more influenced by the demographic composition of the local community rather than the overall concentration of Cubans in the state. When examining non-Cuban voters, their voting patterns appear really similar. This was interesting to see because I was actually expecting the opposite, as previous research and academia tells us that minorities are more likely to vote when they are living in areas that have a higher percentage of such minority.

Voting Comparison By Race

Code Example
#Racial voting activity of cubans
Race_Cuban_vote2020GE <- 
  FLVF_PAL_hist_Cuban %>%
  group_by(Race, Cuba, vote2020GE) %>%
  summarise(cnt = n()) %>%
  mutate(freq = scales::percent(cnt / sum(cnt)))

#rendering a table for it 
library(DT)
library(scales)

dt_table <- datatable(Race_Cuban_vote2020GE, 
                      options = list(
                        scrollX = TRUE,
                        pageLength = 10
                      ))

# Display the interactive table
dt_table
summary_data_2020 <- FLVF_PAL_hist_Cuban %>%
  filter(!is.na(Race) & !is.na(Cuba) & !is.na(vote2020GE) & vote2020GE %in% c("A", "E", "P")) %>%
  group_by(Race, Cuba, voting_method = factor(vote2020GE)) %>%
  summarise(total = sum(n()))

# Calculate percentages within each Race and Cuban status
summary_data_2020 <- summary_data_2020 %>%
  group_by(Race) %>%
  mutate(percentage = total/sum(total) * 100)

# Create a bar plot for voting activity in 2020 with a log scale
ggplot(summary_data_2020, aes(x = Race, y = percentage, fill = interaction(Cuba, voting_method))) +
  geom_bar(stat = "identity", position = "dodge") +
  labs(title = "Voting Activity by Race, Cuban Status, and Voting Method (2020)",
       x = "Race",
       y = "Percentage of Voters") +
  scale_fill_discrete(name = "Cuban/Non-Cuban_Voting_Method") +
  scale_y_log10(labels = scales::percent_format(scale = 1)) + # Use log scale for the y-axis
  theme_minimal()

Summary

The data indicates that, concerning race, Cubans exhibit higher voting participation rates compared to non-Cubans. For instance, Black Cubans participate in voting at higher rates than Black non-Cubans, and Cubans identifying as both Hispanic and a specific race tend to vote more actively than individuals who identify solely as Hispanic. Similarly, among White individuals, White Cubans participate in voting at higher rates than those who are neither Cuban nor Hispanic. However in the bar graph where we see the percentage of voters as a whole, Cubans are such a small percentage that obviously non-Cubans dominate, that’s the importance of looking at data individually and breaking down the info.

Voting Patterns by Age

Cuban_voters <- FLVF_PAL_hist_Cuban %>%
  filter(Cuba == 1, !is.na(Agecat), Agecat != "Other", !is.na(vote2020GE))

# Group by age category and voting status, then calculate counts
voting_activity_by_age <- Cuban_voters %>%
  group_by(Agecat, vote2020GE) %>%
  summarise(cnt = n()) %>%
  filter(vote2020GE != "Y") %>%  # Exclude "Y" category
  mutate(freq = cnt / sum(cnt))

# Create the bar graph
ggplot(voting_activity_by_age, aes(x = Agecat, y = freq, fill = vote2020GE)) +
  geom_bar(stat = "identity", position = "dodge") +
  labs(
    title = "Voting Activity of Cubans by Age in 2020GE",
    x = "Age Category",
    y = "Voting Percentage",
    fill = "Voting Method"
  ) +
  theme_minimal()

Summary

Comparable to patterns of agglomeration before, individuals of the same ages exhibit similar voting levels as non-Cuban voters. Nevertheless, notable distinctions arise in the voting methods employed. Cubans tend to vote significantly more in person on election day, whereas other demographic groups lean toward casting their votes through absentee ballots.

Voting by Party Affliation

Party Affiliation (cuban)

Cuban_voters <- FLVF_PAL_hist_Cuban %>%
  filter(Cuba == 1, !is.na(PartyAffiliation))

# Group by party affiliation, then calculate counts
voting_activity_by_party <- Cuban_voters %>%
  group_by(PartyAffiliation) %>%
  summarise(cnt = n()) %>%
  mutate(freq = scales::percent(cnt / sum(cnt)))

# Create an interactive table using DT
dt_table <- datatable(voting_activity_by_party, 
                      options = list(
                        scrollX = TRUE,
                        pageLength = 10
                      ))
# Display the interactive table
dt_table
party_colors <- c("REP" = "red", "DEM" = "blue", "NPA" = "green", "Other" = "grey")

# Create a bar plot with custom colors
ggplot(voting_activity_by_party, aes(x = PartyAffiliation, y = cnt, fill = PartyAffiliation)) +
  geom_bar(stat = "identity") +
  scale_fill_manual(values = party_colors) +  # Set custom colors
  labs(title = "Voting Activity by Party Affiliation",
       x = "Party Affiliation",
       y = "Count") +
  theme_minimal()

Party Affiliation (non-cuban)

Summary

These two tables reveal an intriguing observation: nearly half of Cubans exhibit a Republican party affiliation, despite the broader county demographic leaning more towards the Democratic party. It is surprising to note that in a county where almost 40% of residents identify as Democrats, Cubans maintain an almost 50% affiliation with the Republican party.

Conclusion and Analysis

The findings of this project offer valuable insights into the voting behaviors of Cubans in the context of their demographic and political affiliations. Notably, the data suggests that Cuban voters are strongly influenced by local community demographics rather than the overall concentration of Cubans at the state level. Additionally, when examining voting patterns by race and age, Cubans tend to participate at higher rates compared to their non-Cuban counterparts. The surprising observation emerges in political affiliations, where almost half of Cubans align with the Republican party in a county with a significant Democratic majority. This unique political divergence within the Cuban community underscores the complexity of voting dynamics and the multifaceted nature of political affiliations among this demographic.

Overall, the project sheds light on the nuanced voting patterns of Cubans, contributing to a deeper understanding of their political engagement within the broader sociopolitical landscape.