Setting the agenda in the Voice referendum

Andrea Carson

La Trobe University

Max Grömping

Griffith University

Simon Jackman

University of Sydney

Justin Phillips

Waikato University

7 December 2023

10 highest daily counts, AEC mentions

date	n	Description
2023-08-25	3402	Dutton, ticks & crosses, AEC response
2023-08-24	2427	Dutton, ticks & crosses, AEC response
2023-07-18	1652	Referendum pamphlet published
2023-10-03	1268	Yes signage warning
2023-08-28	1176	Dutton, ticks & crosses, AEC response
2023-08-26	1151	Dutton, ticks & crosses, AEC response
2023-10-04	1096	Yes signage warning
2023-10-13	1073	voting procedures, mobile polling teams
2023-08-30	820	Dutton, ticks & crosses, AEC response
2023-07-17	810	Referendum pamphlet published

Twitter, posts with most engagement

Tweets with most engagement, AEC mentioned

twitterScreenName	Engagement	Hit Sentence
Jacinta Nampijinpa	3237	The official No Case for the upcoming Voice Referendum pamphlet has been submitted to the AEC. Australians deserve details, consultation and transparency. Instead we’ve been given a proposal that is risky, full of unknowns and enshrines division in the constitution.
ShiannonCorcoran💉x4	2467	The Coalition, who won every election since 2013 - except the last 🙏🏻 - who have been called the most corrupt govt in Aus history with one of the most corrupt PMs in history.. ..are telling the AEC that Voice referendum ballot voting process is “rigged” How Trumpian of them🙄
Dr Sheep Person Podge	2145	Can you actually believe the leader of the opposition is accusing the AEC of ""rigging "" the Voice referendum? We really are another American state
Pauline Hanson 🇦🇺	2073	With early voting underway, please be alert to any Yes campaign tricks. They have already received at least two warnings from the AEC over potentially misleading voters. First, it was potentially misleading signs, now they have been warned over potentially misleading voting instructions. It seems in their desperation, the Yes campaign is resorting to some real dirty politics. Luckily, I believe Australians will rise above the gutter, see through the Yes campaign of deception, and Vote No to Albanese's risky, divisive Canberra Voice. #VoteNoAustralia #VoteNo23 #VoteNo2023
Peter Murphy	1881	The Trumpian deceitfulness of Liberal Leader Peter Dutton (attacking both the PM and the AEC) should lead to protests from fair-minded Liberal Party members. This 👇 is wrong. #auspol #VoiceToParliament https://t.co/pASN0YBDhZ
Sahar Adatia	1731	Bridget Archer is the antithesis of the descending Liberal Party. Her courage to call out Dutton & Jane Hume as they undermine the AEC & chase petty Trump tactics on the Voice referendum mirrors principled judgement, duty & integrity. If only all LNP MPs had a conscience. #auspol https://t.co/neCoWNUPn8
Sky News Australia	1480	Peter Dutton will put pressure on the AEC Commissioner to clarify comments made over the Voice referendum voting rules which the Opposition Leader argues would give a “very strong advantage” to the Yes campaign. https://t.co/ORoNc0E5A8
jamiemcintyre	1409	QT @jamiemcintyre21: Who believes the AEC and the Australian Government is planning to rig the referendum to desperately get a Yes win despite a clear majority of Australians against it ? The evidence already exists of how they plan to do it , from the AEC and Labor MP effectively encouraging voters to vote often, and mail in votes, which is designed for vote rigging by the looney left. The radicals left know only how to cheat and are the threat to democracy, and is where the pedophile Satanic Globalists elite garner their support from to rig our corrupt western systems. The only way to stop the vote rigging winning is to ensure so many Australians vote no that the rigging will not be enough. Like the 2016 US Election Hillary was told was hers but the rigging wasn’t enough #no #yes ; All X users can respond to the AEC about this DISASTROUS admission here and demand a response: (Scroll down a bit) https://t.co/vcyWAyEgzg Follow @zeeemedia #no #YesCampaign Australian National Review https://t.co/kzEmcPj2pO https://t.co/br2ufvFBUD
Malcolm Roberts 🇦🇺	1357	Tom Rogers of the Australian Electoral Commission (#AEC) says a ✔️ will be accepted as a formal vote for YES, but a ❌ will be informal and not counted. With #NAPLAN results showing literacy is still on the back burner for education, is it any wonder the 'Yes' camp have given themselves an advantage by allowing a tick instead of actual written words? Maybe this is all about 'equity' rather than an equal opportunity at the ballot box. Or maybe it's just cheating. What do you think? #YesorNo #writeno #VoiceToParliament #Referendum2023 #Referendum #Auspol2023

Facebook posts with most views , AEC mentioned

name	Views	z
Jeremy Buckingham	423811	the aec are currently conducting a review of the legalise cannabis australia membership .. (the federal party) .. this is different to any other review currently taking place. if you get an email, please make sure you answer it asap .. these emails will be going out from today . not everyone will be contacted, they do a random selection from our membership list ...so please keep an eye out for it in in box and spam ... thanks in advance ..
Warren Entsch MP	183899	📣voice to parliament referendum leichhardt pre-poll locations📣 the australian electoral commission have finalised locations and times for pre-poll voting in the upcoming voice to parliament referendum. opening times for pre-poll booths are as follows. tjapukai aboriginal cultural park, cairns raintrees, commonwealth centre and mount sheridan plaza: tue 3 oct – fri 6 oct 8:30 am–5:30 pm sat 7 oct 9 am–4 pm mon 9 oct – thu 12 oct 8:30 am–5:30 pm fri 13 oct 8:30 am–6 pm sat 14 oct 8 am–6 pm port douglas community centre: mon 9 oct – thu 12 oct 8:30 am–5:30 pm fri 13 oct 8:30 am–6 pm sat 14 oct 8 am–6 pm gungarde community centre aboriginal corporation (cooktown): mon 9 oct – thu 12 oct 8:30 am–5:30 pm fri 13 oct 8:30 am–6 pm anglican parish hall (thursday island): mon 9 oct – thu 12 oct 9 am–4:30 pm fri 13 oct 9 am–6 pm further information, including polling locations on referendum day (saturday 14th october) can be found at leichhardt commencing 3rd of october tjapukai aboriginal cultural park 4 skyrail drive smithfield commonwealth centre ground floor 104 grafton street cairns city cairns raintrees 6-26 koch street manunda mount sheridan plaza 106-132 barnard drive mount sheridan see post text for opening times
Mark Furner MP for Ferny Grove	95075	a number of people have contacted my office to learn where they can cast early ballots in the voice to parliament referendum. the australian electoral commission has opened two early voting locations in brisbane's north-west and the hills district. see below: early voting for the referendum is now open in these locations locally. the gap uniting church 1050 waterworks rd, the gap tuesday october 3-friday october 6 8.30am-5.30pm saturday october 9am-4pm monday october 9- thursday october 12-8.30am-5.30pm friday october -8.30 am-6pm kakowan community facility 2 pine hills dr, bunya tuesday october 3-friday october 6 8.30am-5.30pm saturday october 7- 9am-4pm monday october 9-thursday october 12-8.30am-5.30pm friday october 13 8.30 am-6pm
Andrew Giles MP	92932	postal vote applications for the referendum are open until october 11. for information about registering for postal voting visit the aec website or call 13 23 26 for more information. my office is also able to assist people with information regarding the aec's postal vote process. ប postal voting applications are now open. it's time to vote yes oo
pocock.page	79006	undermining trust in the australian electoral commission and framing 30 years of precedent as ""rigged"" is incredibly concerning. this is a new low from peter dutton and the no campaign. straight out of the us republican playbook. how about people actually read the 1 page uluru statement and the proposed referendum question. straight out of the us republican playbook. how about people actually read the 1 page uluru statement and the proposed referendum question. then you can feel capable of commenting and voting page uluru statement,proposed referendum question uluru statement
albomp	55868	this morning we took the first formal step to holding a referendum. it will be a chance for all australians to be heard, and to change our country for the better. to recognise aboriginal and torres strait islander peoples in our constitution, and deliver a voice to parliament. this will be an historic, unifying moment for our country. we have a vile labor government thousands forced into homelessness as the vile government applauds themselves this has been shallow… , the worthless labor party is giving $50.2 million to the niaa to prepare australian electoral commission for ""the referendum to enshrine a voice to parliament in the constitution"". imagine how many homes you could build with that money?? unfortunately australians living on the dim jim,shallow albo's pet project,union leaders and labor political stooges,cost,course,housing,jobs,many homes,million,money,money for public,referendum,rest,streets,taxpayer funding,vile labor government,voice,worthless labor party referendum,voice to parliament,constitution,voice,indigenous,voice
7newsadelaide	54951	the australian electoral commission has launched a disinformation register, a new tool to combat fake news on the voice to parliament referendum. our panel are here to discuss. www.7news.com.au #7news #thelatest labor want an indigenous voice to parliament ... but not anthony dillon's voice or bess price's voice ... labor want julian leeser and mark labor want an indigenous voice to parliament ... but not anthony dillon's voice or bess price's voice ... labor want julian leeser and mark liebler's voice. anthony dillon's voice,bess price's voice,indigenous voice indigenous voice
NO Term Tories	42694	and yet another in our long-running (unfortunately) series of fact checks. this one by the rmit fact lab's eiddwen jeffery no basis to claims voice referendum will be rigged opponents of the voice to parliament are drawing on trumpian-style politics to falsely claim the federal government will rig the referendum to ensure a yes outcome. several facebook users have posted a range of claims over the past few months asserting that the voice referendum will be rigged to ensure the yes vote prevails. “yes vote will be rigged”, one user headlined their post. another post read, “the yes vote will get up because it will be rigged”, while another said, “we know that the voting system is rigged and those in government power always have hidden agendas.” election officials and a professor in digital media research say there is no evidence for these claims. all federal elections and referendums in australia are conducted and supervised by the australian electoral commission (aec,) an independent statutory authority established in 1984. the referendum due later this year seeks to alter australia’s constitution to include recognition of first nations peoples and establish a federal advisory body known as the aboriginal and torres strait islander voice to parliament. aec spokesman evan ekin-smyth told rmit factlab by email that the electoral body had “noticed an uptick” in claims of rigging for the referendum being directed at its social media accounts. he said the claims were “nonsense”. “these general claims of rigging seem to be one of many that have no basis in fact. they are based on absolutely nothing,” he said. the aec recently published a thread on social media site x (formerly twitter) summarising some of the claims it had received. “if people have a legitimate concern based on actual information then they can of course make a complaint to the aec via our online complaints form,” mr ekin-smyth said. objectors could also request a recount or lodge a challenge in the courts after the referendum if they disputed the result, he said. professor axel bruns, director of the digital media research centre at queensland university of technology, told factlab that claims of election rigging gained prominence after the 2020 us presidential election when donald trump lost to joe biden. since then, similar claims had increased in australian elections but had been kept at bay in part due to efforts by the aec, he said. however, professor bruns said rigging claims could become more prominent in the voice to parliament vote, as referendums were conducted differently to elections. “in our regular elections, what we do is we vote for a number of parties and use preferential voting, so it's a much more complex choice that we normally make when we go to elections. with a referendum it's simply ‘do you want this or don’t you?’ it lends itself to american style campaigning,” he said. “this sort of campaigning of putting your side forward and attacking the other, discrediting the other even, is very common in the us. in this case, in this particular referendum, we are seeing it also very much imported into the australian context.” unfamiliarity with the referendum process had provided an “open door for people making all sorts of outlandish claims about the referendum and how it works and misleading voters about the process itself,” professor bruns said. baseless claims of electoral rigging undermined trust in the integrity of the electoral system overall, he said. “as soon as you start claiming that one election is rigged, then of course it creates the impression that perhaps all elections are rigged and this sort of stuff happens all the time, so ultimately it reduces people's trust in democracy,” he said. what steps does the aec take to ensure sound elections? the aec is the federal independent statutory authority responsible for maintaining the electoral roll, delivering polling services and raising awareness of the electoral process. according to aec's mr ekin-smyth, the referendum voting and counting process follows these steps to protect against rigging: 1) every voter gets a private space in a voting screen to cast their vote. 2) the private vote is then deposited into a small ballot box that is sealed and guarded. 3) that ballot box is transported through a chain of custody to where it will be counted. 4) the vote is counted then recounted for the validation process. 5) after it has been counted twice, it is stored. mr ekin-smyth said security is organised for the transport, storage and counting of ballot papers and results are published in real time to ensure transparency of the count. overseeing every step of this process are scrutineers whose job is to observe every part of the voting and counting process and ensure transparency in the referendum process. scrutineers can be appointed by registered political parties, the governor-general or state authorities and can challenge decisions made on the formality of (truncated) no basis to claims voice referendum will be rigged what rmit university claimed the verdict the federal governmen will the referendum aboriginal and torres strait voice parliamentto ensure successful yes vote. no voice fc whatsoever that the federal government will ri the secret soft a”stalian electoral commission, independent statutory authority committed to safeguarding the integrity vote count. the voting centre aec credit: kimberley, jessica credit:.abckimberley,jessicahayes. hayes. gaty
This was on our watch. Wake up & hold them accountable.	40327	aec defending their honour and processes after deceitful referendum campaigners dared to question it aec scrutiny 4d essendon fields, victoria neves staff
National Times	40327	cpac mentality by daniel james the us-style conservative conference was a reminder that the voice referendum is being used as a trumpian trojan horse the vileness and the gloomy conspiracy theories espoused throughout the two-day conservative political action conference (cpac) last weekend have resonated well beyond the conference itself. in the year of a nation-defining referendum, the fervour of the far right has never been more full of zealotry, no matter the cost to the country they claim to love so much. at between $119 and $7000 a pop, a ticket to cpac gave attendees a chance to reveal themselves beyond the board room – or the lounge room. beyond the snarky facebook posts and the lame memes, the conference allowed participants to be their miserable, bigoted, racist selves in real time. perhaps in their own minds, they were witnessing clever and insightful conservative thinkers with original ideas, but in reality both the format and the ideas have been imported more or less wholesale from the us. instead of using the conference to talk about the big issues – climate change, cost of living, corporate corruption or growing inequity – participants decided to focus on other people’s genitalia, changing the date of australia day, woke cancel culture and – everyone’s favourite – the climate hoax. for people who believe climate science is a lie, they sure do love to be sun smart with their caps. self-described, cpac is “a values-based nonprofit organisation that espouses the best of howard, reagan and thatcher while exploring new ideas and themes for the coming generations”. but it seems the “new ideas” to emerge from the conference amounted to “vote ‘no’ in the voice referendum” and “lift the ban on nuclear”. throughout out all the conference’s racist stupidity on the voice, warren mundine and jacinta nampijinpa price smiled and watched on, as their people were denigrated, demeaned and debased by those purporting to have “values”. perhaps the fact that mundine and price both had their faces on cpac’s promotional banner was flattery enough to appease them. in fact, it’s an indictment on them both. they claim to be leaders of their people, but in the end they’re merely props, ready to be discarded once the referendum is over. the conference was a reminder of the sad reality that the referendum is serving as a trumpian trojan horse. for conservatives, it was a chance to try on the reality-denying tactics that ultimately failed in the united states, but will continue to undergo refinement until they either succeed or do an optimal amount of damage, because there is still a buck to be made in the last thrashing moments of baby boomers in their twilight years. the latest trump-lite “controversy” relates to the australian electoral commission advising that a tick can be used as a vote for “yes” but a cross cannot be used to vote “no”. peter dutton, in his regular penance on 2gb, described the rule (which has been in place for 30 years) as, “completely outrageous”, adding that “it gives a very, very strong advantage to the ‘yes’ case”. as usual, the predictable hysteria is not matched by facts. guardian australia reports that during the 1999 republic referendum (in which the same rule was in place), “only 0.86% of votes were classed as informal, and only a portion of those related to ticks and crosses on the ballot”. the aec continues to urge people to simply vote “yes” or “no”. despite the microscopic size of the issue, it will be used by conservative opponents of the voice to undermine the legitimacy of the referendum process, and by extension the aec and election processes across the country. the aec disinformation register, which lists pieces of disinformation about the voice referendum, reads like something straight from the trumpian playbook on how to erode faith in democracy. those traditionally on the fringes of political discourse, particularly on the right, have found themselves increasingly closer to the centres of power. the trend has been growing for 25 years or more, as the australian political landscape shifts to the right. despite labor governments dominating the mainland, almost none of them (with the possible exception of victoria) can be labelled truly progressive. the extreme viewpoints shouted at the world over the two days of cpac have never been more intertwined with the “mainstream” political parties that are the liberal and national parties. the referendum is a litmus test as to whether this intertwining is an effective strategy, or just a mess. with yesterday’s intergenerational report showing clearly that if we are to leave anything for coming generations, then we must tackle climate change now (listening to first nations people would greatly assist in that venture), the only thing cpac demonstrates is that if we were to follow cpackers on their path, we’d be driving off a cliff. we are one pac australia senator jacinta price speaks during the 2023 conservative political action conference (cpac) in sydney, august 19, 2023. image © dean lewins aap images

Discoveries

Criticism of AEC from mainstream political figures widely considered a novel feature of Voice referendum; a “Trumpian” moment for Australian politics?
initial inspection of data suggests
- criticism of AEC and electoral processes small when set against totality of Voice content
- considerable pushback against “rigged” narratives, potentially outweighing “rigged” narratives themselves by conventional measures of social media engagement
“No” won handily, so “rigged” narratives evaporate after referendum; cf “stolen election” narratives in US post-2020.

Where we’re going

LLM embeddings of text, then semi-supervised clustering to identify narratives about AEC, a la our 2022 election work
rigorously assess extent of “rigged” narratives, protagonists
assess success of AEC counter-narratives
broader project examining content, prevalence and dynamics in “Yes” and “No” narratives

Setting the agenda in the Voice referendum

Social media and MSM data

Social media and MSM data

Social media and MSM data

AEC mentions in Voice related social media, 2023

10 highest daily counts, AEC mentions

“Rigged” or “fix is in” in Voice related social media, 2023

Twitter, posts with most engagement

Tweets with most engagement, AEC mentioned

Facebook posts with most views , AEC mentioned

Discoveries

Where we’re going