Covid 19 Project
aaron chola
2023-11-22
Library
library(tidyverse)## ── Attaching core tidyverse packages ──────────────────────── tidyverse 2.0.0 ──
## ✔ dplyr 1.1.3 ✔ readr 2.1.4
## ✔ forcats 1.0.0 ✔ stringr 1.5.0
## ✔ ggplot2 3.4.2 ✔ tibble 3.2.1
## ✔ lubridate 1.9.2 ✔ tidyr 1.3.0
## ✔ purrr 1.0.2
## ── Conflicts ────────────────────────────────────────── tidyverse_conflicts() ──
## ✖ dplyr::filter() masks stats::filter()
## ✖ dplyr::lag() masks stats::lag()
## ℹ Use the conflicted package (<http://conflicted.r-lib.org/>) to force all conflicts to become errorslibrary(forecast)## Registered S3 method overwritten by 'quantmod':
## method from
## as.zoo.data.frame zooDATA WRAGLING
Zambia_Covid_data<-data1 %>%select(Date,Country,Deaths,Confirmed,Recovered) %>%
filter(Country=="Zambia")
Covid_death<-data1 %>%select(Date,Country,Deaths) %>%
filter(Country=="Zambia")
Recovered<-data1 %>%select(Date,Country,Recovered) %>%
filter(Country=="Zambia")
Confirmed<-data1 %>%select(Date,Country,Confirmed) %>%
filter(Country=="Zambia")New data
Zambia_Covid_data## Date Country Deaths Confirmed Recovered
## 1 03/18/2020 Zambia 0 2 0
## 2 03/19/2020 Zambia 0 2 0
## 3 03/20/2020 Zambia 0 2 0
## 4 03/21/2020 Zambia 0 2 0
## 5 03/22/2020 Zambia 0 3 0
## 6 03/23/2020 Zambia 0 3 0
## 7 03/24/2020 Zambia 0 3 0
## 8 03/25/2020 Zambia 0 12 0
## 9 03/26/2020 Zambia 0 16 0
## 10 03/27/2020 Zambia 0 22 0
## 11 03/28/2020 Zambia 0 28 0
## 12 03/29/2020 Zambia 0 29 0
## 13 03/30/2020 Zambia 0 35 0
## 14 03/31/2020 Zambia 0 35 0
## 15 04/01/2020 Zambia 0 36 0
## 16 04/02/2020 Zambia 1 39 0
## 17 04/03/2020 Zambia 1 39 2
## 18 04/04/2020 Zambia 1 39 2
## 19 04/05/2020 Zambia 1 39 3
## 20 04/06/2020 Zambia 1 39 5
## 21 04/07/2020 Zambia 1 39 7
## 22 04/08/2020 Zambia 1 39 7
## 23 04/09/2020 Zambia 1 39 24
## 24 04/10/2020 Zambia 2 40 25
## 25 04/11/2020 Zambia 2 40 28
## 26 04/12/2020 Zambia 2 43 30
## 27 04/13/2020 Zambia 2 45 30
## 28 04/14/2020 Zambia 2 45 30
## 29 04/15/2020 Zambia 2 48 30
## 30 04/16/2020 Zambia 2 48 30
## 31 04/17/2020 Zambia 2 52 30
## 32 04/18/2020 Zambia 2 57 33
## 33 04/19/2020 Zambia 3 61 33
## 34 04/20/2020 Zambia 3 65 35
## 35 04/21/2020 Zambia 3 70 35
## 36 04/22/2020 Zambia 3 74 35
## 37 04/23/2020 Zambia 3 76 37
## 38 04/24/2020 Zambia 3 84 37
## 39 04/25/2020 Zambia 3 84 37
## 40 04/26/2020 Zambia 3 88 42
## 41 04/27/2020 Zambia 3 88 42
## 42 04/28/2020 Zambia 3 95 42
## 43 04/29/2020 Zambia 3 97 54
## 44 04/30/2020 Zambia 3 106 55
## 45 05/01/2020 Zambia 3 109 74
## 46 05/02/2020 Zambia 3 119 75
## 47 05/03/2020 Zambia 3 124 78
## 48 05/04/2020 Zambia 3 137 78
## 49 05/05/2020 Zambia 3 138 92
## 50 05/06/2020 Zambia 4 146 101
## 51 05/07/2020 Zambia 4 153 103
## 52 05/08/2020 Zambia 4 167 111
## 53 05/09/2020 Zambia 7 252 112
## 54 05/10/2020 Zambia 7 267 117
## 55 05/11/2020 Zambia 7 267 117
## 56 05/12/2020 Zambia 7 441 117
## 57 05/13/2020 Zambia 7 446 124
## 58 05/14/2020 Zambia 7 654 124
## 59 05/15/2020 Zambia 7 654 124
## 60 05/16/2020 Zambia 7 679 183
## 61 05/17/2020 Zambia 7 753 188
## 62 05/18/2020 Zambia 7 761 192
## 63 05/19/2020 Zambia 7 772 192
## 64 05/20/2020 Zambia 7 832 197
## 65 05/21/2020 Zambia 7 866 302
## 66 05/22/2020 Zambia 7 920 336
## 67 05/23/2020 Zambia 7 920 336
## 68 05/24/2020 Zambia 7 920 336
## 69 05/25/2020 Zambia 7 920 336
## 70 05/26/2020 Zambia 7 920 336
## 71 05/27/2020 Zambia 7 1057 779
## 72 05/28/2020 Zambia 7 1057 779
## 73 05/29/2020 Zambia 7 1057 779
## 74 05/30/2020 Zambia 7 1057 779
## 75 05/31/2020 Zambia 7 1057 779
## 76 06/01/2020 Zambia 7 1089 912
## 77 06/02/2020 Zambia 7 1089 912
## 78 06/03/2020 Zambia 7 1089 912
## 79 06/04/2020 Zambia 7 1089 912
## 80 06/05/2020 Zambia 7 1089 912
## 81 06/06/2020 Zambia 7 1089 912
## 82 06/07/2020 Zambia 7 1089 912
## 83 06/08/2020 Zambia 10 1200 912
## 84 06/09/2020 Zambia 10 1200 912
## 85 06/10/2020 Zambia 10 1200 912
## 86 06/11/2020 Zambia 10 1200 912
## 87 06/12/2020 Zambia 10 1321 1104
## 88 06/13/2020 Zambia 10 1357 1104
## 89 06/14/2020 Zambia 11 1358 1122
## 90 06/15/2020 Zambia 11 1382 1142
## 91 06/16/2020 Zambia 11 1405 1142
## 92 06/17/2020 Zambia 11 1412 1142
## 93 06/18/2020 Zambia 11 1416 1144
## 94 06/19/2020 Zambia 11 1430 1194
## 95 06/20/2020 Zambia 11 1430 1194
## 96 06/21/2020 Zambia 11 1430 1194
## 97 06/22/2020 Zambia 11 1430 1194
## 98 06/23/2020 Zambia 18 1477 1213
## 99 06/24/2020 Zambia 18 1489 1223
## 100 06/25/2020 Zambia 18 1497 1223
## 101 06/26/2020 Zambia 21 1531 1233
## 102 06/27/2020 Zambia 21 1531 1233
## 103 06/28/2020 Zambia 22 1557 1311
## 104 06/29/2020 Zambia 22 1568 1311
## 105 06/30/2020 Zambia 24 1594 1329
## 106 07/01/2020 Zambia 30 1632 1348
## 107 07/02/2020 Zambia 30 1632 1348
## 108 07/03/2020 Zambia 30 1632 1348
## 109 07/04/2020 Zambia 30 1632 1348
## 110 07/05/2020 Zambia 30 1632 1348
## 111 07/06/2020 Zambia 30 1632 1348
## 112 07/07/2020 Zambia 42 1895 1348
## 113 07/08/2020 Zambia 42 1895 1348
## 114 07/09/2020 Zambia 42 1895 1348
## 115 07/10/2020 Zambia 42 1895 1348
## 116 07/11/2020 Zambia 42 1895 1348
## 117 07/12/2020 Zambia 42 1895 1412
## 118 07/13/2020 Zambia 42 1895 1412
## 119 07/14/2020 Zambia 42 1895 1412
## 120 07/15/2020 Zambia 42 1895 1412
## 121 07/16/2020 Zambia 42 1895 1412
## 122 07/17/2020 Zambia 109 2810 1450
## 123 07/18/2020 Zambia 120 2980 1462
## 124 07/19/2020 Zambia 120 2980 1462
## 125 07/20/2020 Zambia 128 3326 1620
## 126 07/21/2020 Zambia 128 3386 1620
## 127 07/22/2020 Zambia 128 3583 1677
## 128 07/23/2020 Zambia 134 3789 1677
## 129 07/24/2020 Zambia 136 3856 1677
## 130 07/25/2020 Zambia 139 4328 1953
## 131 07/26/2020 Zambia 139 4481 2350
## 132 07/27/2020 Zambia 140 4552 2815
## 133 07/28/2020 Zambia 142 5002 3195
## 134 07/29/2020 Zambia 146 5249 3285
## 135 07/30/2020 Zambia 149 5555 3289
## 136 07/31/2020 Zambia 151 5963 3803
## 137 08/01/2020 Zambia 165 6228 4130
## 138 08/02/2020 Zambia 170 6347 4493
## 139 08/03/2020 Zambia 171 6580 4701
## 140 08/04/2020 Zambia 173 6793 5109
## 141 08/05/2020 Zambia 176 7022 5667
## 142 08/06/2020 Zambia 199 7164 5786
## 143 08/07/2020 Zambia 200 7486 6264
## 144 08/08/2020 Zambia 203 7903 6431
## 145 08/09/2020 Zambia 235 8085 6698
## 146 08/10/2020 Zambia 241 8210 6802
## 147 08/11/2020 Zambia 241 8275 7004
## 148 08/12/2020 Zambia 246 8501 7233
## 149 08/13/2020 Zambia 246 8663 7401
## 150 08/14/2020 Zambia 256 9021 7586
## 151 08/15/2020 Zambia 260 9186 8065
## 152 08/16/2020 Zambia 260 9343 8412
## 153 08/17/2020 Zambia 264 9839 8575
## 154 08/18/2020 Zambia 264 9981 8776
## 155 08/19/2020 Zambia 269 10218 9126
## 156 08/20/2020 Zambia 274 10372 9126
## 157 08/21/2020 Zambia 277 10627 9126
## 158 08/22/2020 Zambia 279 10831 9942
## 159 08/23/2020 Zambia 280 11082 9942
## 160 08/24/2020 Zambia 280 11148 10208
## 161 08/25/2020 Zambia 282 11285 10400
## 162 08/26/2020 Zambia 282 11376 10693
## 163 08/27/2020 Zambia 282 11601 10840
## 164 08/28/2020 Zambia 283 11779 10945
## 165 08/29/2020 Zambia 284 11902 11092
## 166 08/30/2020 Zambia 287 12025 11454
## 167 08/31/2020 Zambia 288 12097 11469
## 168 09/01/2020 Zambia 290 12381 11479
## 169 09/02/2020 Zambia 292 12415 11494
## 170 09/03/2020 Zambia 292 12523 11562
## 171 09/04/2020 Zambia 292 12639 11572
## 172 09/05/2020 Zambia 292 12709 11668
## 173 09/06/2020 Zambia 295 12776 11674
## 174 09/07/2020 Zambia 295 12836 11748
## 175 09/08/2020 Zambia 297 12952 11787
## 176 09/09/2020 Zambia 300 13112 11839
## 177 09/10/2020 Zambia 300 13214 11899
## 178 09/11/2020 Zambia 306 13323 11899
## 179 09/12/2020 Zambia 312 13466 12007
## 180 09/13/2020 Zambia 312 13539 12260
## 181 09/14/2020 Zambia 320 13720 12380
## 182 09/15/2020 Zambia 324 13819 12590
## 183 09/16/2020 Zambia 326 13887 12869
## 184 09/17/2020 Zambia 326 13928 13029
## 185 09/18/2020 Zambia 329 14022 13207
## 186 09/19/2020 Zambia 330 14070 13365
## 187 09/20/2020 Zambia 330 14131 13365
## 188 09/21/2020 Zambia 331 14175 13629
## 189 09/22/2020 Zambia 331 14389 13629
## 190 09/23/2020 Zambia 332 14443 13629
## 191 09/24/2020 Zambia 332 14491 13643
## 192 09/25/2020 Zambia 332 14515 13643
## 193 09/26/2020 Zambia 332 14612 13727
## 194 09/27/2020 Zambia 332 14641 13784
## 195 09/28/2020 Zambia 332 14660 13821
## 196 09/29/2020 Zambia 332 14715 13937
## 197 09/30/2020 Zambia 332 14759 13959
## 198 10/01/2020 Zambia 333 14802 13961
## 199 10/02/2020 Zambia 333 14830 13980
## 200 10/03/2020 Zambia 333 14974 14094
## 201 10/04/2020 Zambia 333 15052 14187
## 202 10/05/2020 Zambia 334 15089 14306
## 203 10/06/2020 Zambia 335 15170 14313
## 204 10/07/2020 Zambia 335 15224 14342
## 205 10/08/2020 Zambia 335 15301 14365
## 206 10/09/2020 Zambia 336 15339 14439
## 207 10/10/2020 Zambia 337 15415 14541
## 208 10/11/2020 Zambia 337 15458 14599
## 209 10/12/2020 Zambia 345 15549 14682
## 210 10/13/2020 Zambia 345 15587 14783
## 211 10/14/2020 Zambia 345 15616 14850
## 212 10/15/2020 Zambia 346 15659 14899
## 213 10/16/2020 Zambia 346 15659 14899
## 214 10/17/2020 Zambia 346 15789 14927
## 215 10/18/2020 Zambia 346 15853 15005
## 216 10/19/2020 Zambia 346 15897 15031
## 217 10/20/2020 Zambia 346 15982 15038
## 218 10/21/2020 Zambia 346 16000 15168
## 219 10/22/2020 Zambia 346 16035 15168
## 220 10/23/2020 Zambia 346 16095 15179
## 221 10/24/2020 Zambia 348 16117 15179
## 222 10/25/2020 Zambia 348 16117 15179
## 223 10/26/2020 Zambia 348 16200 15445
## 224 10/27/2020 Zambia 348 16243 15481
## 225 10/28/2020 Zambia 348 16285 15559
## 226 10/29/2020 Zambia 348 16325 15585
## 227 10/30/2020 Zambia 349 16415 15600
## 228 10/31/2020 Zambia 349 16432 15680
## 229 11/01/2020 Zambia 349 16480 15733
## 230 11/02/2020 Zambia 349 16543 15733
## 231 11/03/2020 Zambia 349 16661 15763
## 232 11/04/2020 Zambia 349 16698 15819
## 233 11/05/2020 Zambia 349 16770 15827
## 234 11/06/2020 Zambia 349 16819 15862
## 235 11/07/2020 Zambia 349 16908 15873
## 236 11/08/2020 Zambia 349 16954 15950
## 237 11/09/2020 Zambia 349 16971 16011
## 238 11/10/2020 Zambia 350 16997 16019
## 239 11/11/2020 Zambia 350 17036 16070
## 240 11/12/2020 Zambia 350 17056 16102
## 241 11/13/2020 Zambia 350 17093 16134
## 242 11/14/2020 Zambia 350 17097 16137
## 243 11/15/2020 Zambia 353 17123 16137
## 244 11/16/2020 Zambia 353 17187 16400
## 245 11/17/2020 Zambia 353 17243 16473
## 246 11/18/2020 Zambia 356 17280 16495
## 247 11/19/2020 Zambia 356 17350 16591
## 248 11/20/2020 Zambia 356 17373 16606
## 249 11/21/2020 Zambia 356 17394 16659
## 250 11/22/2020 Zambia 357 17424 16701
## 251 11/23/2020 Zambia 357 17454 16701
## 252 11/24/2020 Zambia 357 17466 16707
## 253 11/25/2020 Zambia 357 17535 16755
## 254 11/26/2020 Zambia 357 17553 16779
## 255 11/27/2020 Zambia 357 17569 16845
## 256 11/28/2020 Zambia 357 17589 16925
## 257 11/29/2020 Zambia 357 17608 16983
## 258 11/30/2020 Zambia 357 17647 16998
## 259 12/01/2020 Zambia 357 17665 17059
## 260 12/02/2020 Zambia 357 17700 17086
## 261 12/03/2020 Zambia 357 17730 17102
## 262 12/04/2020 Zambia 364 17857 17145
## 263 12/05/2020 Zambia 364 17898 17168
## 264 12/06/2020 Zambia 364 17916 17173
## 265 12/07/2020 Zambia 364 17931 17211
## 266 12/08/2020 Zambia 364 17963 17268
## 267 12/09/2020 Zambia 364 18062 17295
## 268 12/10/2020 Zambia 364 18091 17307
## 269 12/11/2020 Zambia 365 18161 17329
## 270 12/12/2020 Zambia 366 18217 17339
## 271 12/13/2020 Zambia 367 18274 17388
## 272 12/14/2020 Zambia 367 18322 17409
## 273 12/15/2020 Zambia 368 18428 17487
## 274 12/16/2020 Zambia 369 18456 17635
## 275 12/17/2020 Zambia 369 18504 17680
## 276 12/18/2020 Zambia 373 18575 17729
## 277 12/19/2020 Zambia 373 18620 17756
## 278 12/20/2020 Zambia 373 18716 17762
## 279 12/21/2020 Zambia 375 18768 17818
## 280 12/22/2020 Zambia 379 18881 17890
## 281 12/23/2020 Zambia 380 19122 17969
## 282 12/24/2020 Zambia 381 19234 18036
## 283 12/25/2020 Zambia 381 19571 18127
## 284 12/26/2020 Zambia 382 19671 18200
## 285 12/27/2020 Zambia 383 19834 18210
## 286 12/28/2020 Zambia 384 19943 18296
## 287 12/29/2020 Zambia 385 20177 18380
## 288 12/30/2020 Zambia 386 20462 18530
## 289 12/31/2020 Zambia 388 20725 18660
## 290 01/01/2021 Zambia 390 20997 18773
## 291 01/02/2021 Zambia 392 21230 18942
## 292 01/03/2021 Zambia 394 21582 19083
## 293 01/04/2021 Zambia 398 21993 19229
## 294 01/05/2021 Zambia 412 22645 19526
## 295 01/06/2021 Zambia 417 23495 19672
## 296 01/07/2021 Zambia 423 24297 19980
## 297 01/08/2021 Zambia 441 25326 20349
## 298 01/09/2021 Zambia 464 26567 20512
## 299 01/10/2021 Zambia 469 27728 20598
## 300 01/11/2021 Zambia 471 28596 20781
## 301 01/12/2021 Zambia 495 29757 21074
## 302 01/13/2021 Zambia 509 31100 21568
## 303 01/14/2021 Zambia 514 32800 22504
## 304 01/15/2021 Zambia 527 34278 24105
## 305 01/16/2021 Zambia 537 36074 25106
## 306 01/17/2021 Zambia 546 37605 26159
## 307 01/18/2021 Zambia 559 38207 27327
## 308 01/19/2021 Zambia 578 39515 28066
## 309 01/20/2021 Zambia 585 40949 29775
## 310 01/21/2021 Zambia 597 42213 31522
## 311 01/22/2021 Zambia 610 43333 32667
## 312 01/23/2021 Zambia 627 44592 34293
## 313 01/24/2021 Zambia 639 45337 35960
## 314 01/25/2021 Zambia 660 46146 38639
## 315 01/26/2021 Zambia 672 47622 40362
## 316 01/27/2021 Zambia 688 48911 41282
## 317 01/28/2021 Zambia 705 50319 42771
## 318 01/29/2021 Zambia 728 51624 44133
## 319 01/30/2021 Zambia 745 53352 45443
## 320 01/31/2021 Zambia 763 54217 48000
## 321 02/01/2021 Zambia 780 55042 49394
## 322 02/02/2021 Zambia 794 56233 49696
## 323 02/03/2021 Zambia 804 57489 50479
## 324 02/04/2021 Zambia 812 59003 51305
## 325 02/05/2021 Zambia 828 60427 52045
## 326 02/06/2021 Zambia 839 61427 53410
## 327 02/07/2021 Zambia 853 62633 54835
## 328 02/08/2021 Zambia 869 63573 56329
## 329 02/09/2021 Zambia 881 64610 58319
## 330 02/10/2021 Zambia 901 65573 58875
## 331 02/11/2021 Zambia 914 66598 59989
## 332 02/12/2021 Zambia 931 67681 61302
## 333 02/13/2021 Zambia 940 68454 62575
## 334 02/14/2021 Zambia 951 69437 62870
## 335 02/15/2021 Zambia 959 70248 63262
## 336 02/16/2021 Zambia 974 70823 63609
## 337 02/17/2021 Zambia 983 71677 64040
## 338 02/18/2021 Zambia 991 72467 65051
## 339 02/19/2021 Zambia 1002 73203 66013
## 340 02/20/2021 Zambia 1016 73894 66943
## 341 02/21/2021 Zambia 1020 74503 67944
## 342 02/22/2021 Zambia 1031 75027 68928
## 343 02/23/2021 Zambia 1040 75582 69436
## 344 02/24/2021 Zambia 1051 76484 69803
## 345 02/25/2021 Zambia 1059 77171 70800
## 346 02/26/2021 Zambia 1066 77639 72635
## 347 02/27/2021 Zambia 1081 78202 73609
## 348 02/28/2021 Zambia 1091 78534 74498
## 349 03/01/2021 Zambia 1098 79002 75087
## 350 03/02/2021 Zambia 1104 79557 75563
## 351 03/03/2021 Zambia 1108 80090 76299
## 352 03/04/2021 Zambia 1109 80687 76498
## 353 03/05/2021 Zambia 1113 81341 77081
## 354 03/06/2021 Zambia 1116 82011 77609
## 355 03/07/2021 Zambia 1124 82421 77943
## 356 03/08/2021 Zambia 1132 82655 78721
## 357 03/09/2021 Zambia 1137 82897 79162
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## 362 03/14/2021 Zambia 1158 84797 81756
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## 364 03/16/2021 Zambia 1167 85240 82432
## 365 03/17/2021 Zambia 1170 85502 82457
## 366 03/18/2021 Zambia 1175 85889 82527
## 367 03/19/2021 Zambia 1178 86059 82714
## 368 03/20/2021 Zambia 1178 86273 83110
## 369 03/21/2021 Zambia 1179 86449 83258
## 370 03/22/2021 Zambia 1182 86535 83319
## 371 03/23/2021 Zambia 1185 86779 83478
## 372 03/24/2021 Zambia 1187 86993 83617
## 373 03/25/2021 Zambia 1191 87318 83895
## 374 03/26/2021 Zambia 1194 87583 84018
## 375 03/27/2021 Zambia 1198 87583 84264
## 376 03/28/2021 Zambia 1200 87872 84347
## 377 03/29/2021 Zambia 1200 88012 84464
## 378 03/30/2021 Zambia 1202 88199 84519
## 379 03/31/2021 Zambia 1208 88418 84592
## 380 04/01/2021 Zambia 1212 88549 84698
## 381 04/02/2021 Zambia 1215 88730 84825
## 382 04/03/2021 Zambia 1215 88800 85017
## 383 04/04/2021 Zambia 1220 88930 85068
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## 385 04/06/2021 Zambia 1224 89071 85338
## 386 04/07/2021 Zambia 1224 89386 85409
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## 389 04/10/2021 Zambia 1226 89918 86813
## 390 04/11/2021 Zambia 1226 90029 88018
## 391 04/12/2021 Zambia 1227 90064 88077
## 392 04/13/2021 Zambia 1229 90218 88144
## 393 04/14/2021 Zambia 1229 90389 88241
## 394 04/15/2021 Zambia 1230 90532 88283
## 395 04/16/2021 Zambia 1233 90750 88414
## 396 04/17/2021 Zambia 1234 90844 88555
## 397 04/18/2021 Zambia 1235 90918 88718
## 398 04/19/2021 Zambia 1236 90942 88860
## 399 04/20/2021 Zambia 1236 91042 88900
## 400 04/21/2021 Zambia 1238 91119 88956
## 401 04/22/2021 Zambia 1240 91189 89117
## 402 04/23/2021 Zambia 1245 91251 89256
## 403 04/24/2021 Zambia 1245 91317 89403
## 404 04/25/2021 Zambia 1246 91358 89574
## 405 04/26/2021 Zambia 1248 91378 89678
## 406 04/27/2021 Zambia 1249 91418 89717
## 407 04/28/2021 Zambia 1249 91484 89743
## 408 04/29/2021 Zambia 1250 91533 89852
## 409 04/30/2021 Zambia 1251 91586 89933
## 410 05/01/2021 Zambia 1251 91670 90012
## 411 05/02/2021 Zambia 1253 91693 90082
## 412 05/03/2021 Zambia 1253 91722 90130
## 413 05/04/2021 Zambia 1254 91804 90166
## 414 05/05/2021 Zambia 1255 91849 90198
## 415 05/06/2021 Zambia 1256 91946 90264
## 416 05/07/2021 Zambia 1256 92004 90316
## 417 05/08/2021 Zambia 1257 92057 90363
## 418 05/09/2021 Zambia 1257 92092 90428
## 419 05/10/2021 Zambia 1257 92112 90501
## 420 05/11/2021 Zambia 1258 92152 90539
## 421 05/12/2021 Zambia 1259 92211 90574
## 422 05/13/2021 Zambia 1260 92262 90635
## 423 05/14/2021 Zambia 1260 92356 90699
## 424 05/15/2021 Zambia 1260 92409 90777
## 425 05/16/2021 Zambia 1260 92436 90816
## 426 05/17/2021 Zambia 1261 92460 90862
## 427 05/18/2021 Zambia 1263 92520 90892
## 428 05/19/2021 Zambia 1263 92630 90919
## 429 05/20/2021 Zambia 1265 92754 90955
## 430 05/21/2021 Zambia 1266 92920 91019
## 431 05/22/2021 Zambia 1267 93106 91102
## 432 05/23/2021 Zambia 1268 93201 91156
## 433 05/24/2021 Zambia 1271 93279 91200
## 434 05/25/2021 Zambia 1271 93428 91221
## 435 05/26/2021 Zambia 1273 93627 91239
## 436 05/27/2021 Zambia 1275 93947 91321
## 437 05/28/2021 Zambia 1275 94430 91443
## 438 05/29/2021 Zambia 1276 94751 91594Data explanation
The data indicates that the initial instances of COVID-19 in Zambia were officially verified on March 18, 2020. .
Data Sumarisation
summary(Zambia_Covid_data)## Date Country Deaths Confirmed
## Length:438 Length:438 Min. : 0.0 Min. : 2
## Class :character Class :character 1st Qu.: 30.0 1st Qu.: 1632
## Mode :character Mode :character Median : 346.0 Median :16065
## Mean : 470.3 Mean :30808
## 3rd Qu.: 878.0 3rd Qu.:64351
## Max. :1276.0 Max. :94751
## Recovered
## Min. : 0
## 1st Qu.: 1348
## Median :15174
## Mean :28826
## 3rd Qu.:57822
## Max. :91594Explanation
We see that the maximum number of covid deaths in Zambia is 1276 and the highest confirmed Cases is 94751.
DATA VISUALISATION(Pie Chart)
# Zambia Cases of Deaths ,Confirmed and Recovered covid
data <- data.frame(
categories = c( "Deaths", "Confirmed", "Recovered"),
values = values <- c(1276, 94751, 91594)
)
# Calculate percentage values
data$percentage <- round((data$values / sum(data$values)) * 100, 1)
# Create a pie chart using ggplot2
ggplot(data, aes(x = "", y = values, fill = categories)) +
geom_bar(stat = "identity", width = 1, color = "white") +
coord_polar("y") +
theme_void() +
theme(legend.position = "top") +
geom_text(aes(label = paste0(percentage, "%")), position = position_stack(vjust = 0.5)) +
ggtitle("Customized HD Pie Chart with ggplot2") +
scale_fill_brewer(palette = "Set3") # You can choose a different color palette if needed
# Save the plot to a file (pie_chart_hd_ggplot.png)
ggsave("pie_chart_hd_ggplot.png", width = 12, height = 8, units = "in")Density Plots
# ggplot(data = Data,mapping = aes(x=X,y=Y))+geom_point()
data1 %>%select(SNo,Date,Country,Deaths,Confirmed,Recovered) %>%
filter(Country=="Zambia")## SNo Date Country Deaths Confirmed Recovered
## 1 6797 03/18/2020 Zambia 0 2 0
## 2 7093 03/19/2020 Zambia 0 2 0
## 3 7393 03/20/2020 Zambia 0 2 0
## 4 7700 03/21/2020 Zambia 0 2 0
## 5 7900 03/22/2020 Zambia 0 3 0
## 6 8203 03/23/2020 Zambia 0 3 0
## 7 8505 03/24/2020 Zambia 0 3 0
## 8 8812 03/25/2020 Zambia 0 12 0
## 9 9121 03/26/2020 Zambia 0 16 0
## 10 9433 03/27/2020 Zambia 0 22 0
## 11 9746 03/28/2020 Zambia 0 28 0
## 12 10062 03/29/2020 Zambia 0 29 0
## 13 10379 03/30/2020 Zambia 0 35 0
## 14 10698 03/31/2020 Zambia 0 35 0
## 15 11016 04/01/2020 Zambia 0 36 0
## 16 11335 04/02/2020 Zambia 1 39 0
## 17 11655 04/03/2020 Zambia 1 39 2
## 18 11975 04/04/2020 Zambia 1 39 2
## 19 12297 04/05/2020 Zambia 1 39 3
## 20 12621 04/06/2020 Zambia 1 39 5
## 21 12945 04/07/2020 Zambia 1 39 7
## 22 13269 04/08/2020 Zambia 1 39 7
## 23 13593 04/09/2020 Zambia 1 39 24
## 24 13918 04/10/2020 Zambia 2 40 25
## 25 14243 04/11/2020 Zambia 2 40 28
## 26 14568 04/12/2020 Zambia 2 43 30
## 27 14892 04/13/2020 Zambia 2 45 30
## 28 15216 04/14/2020 Zambia 2 45 30
## 29 15540 04/15/2020 Zambia 2 48 30
## 30 15864 04/16/2020 Zambia 2 48 30
## 31 16188 04/17/2020 Zambia 2 52 30
## 32 16512 04/18/2020 Zambia 2 57 33
## 33 16836 04/19/2020 Zambia 3 61 33
## 34 17160 04/20/2020 Zambia 3 65 35
## 35 17484 04/21/2020 Zambia 3 70 35
## 36 17808 04/22/2020 Zambia 3 74 35
## 37 18131 04/23/2020 Zambia 3 76 37
## 38 18455 04/24/2020 Zambia 3 84 37
## 39 18776 04/25/2020 Zambia 3 84 37
## 40 19097 04/26/2020 Zambia 3 88 42
## 41 19418 04/27/2020 Zambia 3 88 42
## 42 19743 04/28/2020 Zambia 3 95 42
## 43 20068 04/29/2020 Zambia 3 97 54
## 44 20395 04/30/2020 Zambia 3 106 55
## 45 20722 05/01/2020 Zambia 3 109 74
## 46 21049 05/02/2020 Zambia 3 119 75
## 47 21376 05/03/2020 Zambia 3 124 78
## 48 21703 05/04/2020 Zambia 3 137 78
## 49 22030 05/05/2020 Zambia 3 138 92
## 50 22357 05/06/2020 Zambia 4 146 101
## 51 22684 05/07/2020 Zambia 4 153 103
## 52 23011 05/08/2020 Zambia 4 167 111
## 53 23338 05/09/2020 Zambia 7 252 112
## 54 23665 05/10/2020 Zambia 7 267 117
## 55 23992 05/11/2020 Zambia 7 267 117
## 56 24319 05/12/2020 Zambia 7 441 117
## 57 24647 05/13/2020 Zambia 7 446 124
## 58 24972 05/14/2020 Zambia 7 654 124
## 59 25353 05/15/2020 Zambia 7 654 124
## 60 25734 05/16/2020 Zambia 7 679 183
## 61 26115 05/17/2020 Zambia 7 753 188
## 62 26496 05/18/2020 Zambia 7 761 192
## 63 26877 05/19/2020 Zambia 7 772 192
## 64 27256 05/20/2020 Zambia 7 832 197
## 65 27712 05/21/2020 Zambia 7 866 302
## 66 28168 05/22/2020 Zambia 7 920 336
## 67 28624 05/23/2020 Zambia 7 920 336
## 68 29080 05/24/2020 Zambia 7 920 336
## 69 29536 05/25/2020 Zambia 7 920 336
## 70 29992 05/26/2020 Zambia 7 920 336
## 71 30448 05/27/2020 Zambia 7 1057 779
## 72 30901 05/28/2020 Zambia 7 1057 779
## 73 31458 05/29/2020 Zambia 7 1057 779
## 74 32016 05/30/2020 Zambia 7 1057 779
## 75 32575 05/31/2020 Zambia 7 1057 779
## 76 33132 06/01/2020 Zambia 7 1089 912
## 77 33800 06/02/2020 Zambia 7 1089 912
## 78 34467 06/03/2020 Zambia 7 1089 912
## 79 35135 06/04/2020 Zambia 7 1089 912
## 80 35802 06/05/2020 Zambia 7 1089 912
## 81 36490 06/06/2020 Zambia 7 1089 912
## 82 37178 06/07/2020 Zambia 7 1089 912
## 83 37866 06/08/2020 Zambia 10 1200 912
## 84 38554 06/09/2020 Zambia 10 1200 912
## 85 39240 06/10/2020 Zambia 10 1200 912
## 86 39968 06/11/2020 Zambia 10 1200 912
## 87 40701 06/12/2020 Zambia 10 1321 1104
## 88 41434 06/13/2020 Zambia 10 1357 1104
## 89 42167 06/14/2020 Zambia 11 1358 1122
## 90 42900 06/15/2020 Zambia 11 1382 1142
## 91 43633 06/16/2020 Zambia 11 1405 1142
## 92 44366 06/17/2020 Zambia 11 1412 1142
## 93 45099 06/18/2020 Zambia 11 1416 1144
## 94 45832 06/19/2020 Zambia 11 1430 1194
## 95 46565 06/20/2020 Zambia 11 1430 1194
## 96 47298 06/21/2020 Zambia 11 1430 1194
## 97 48031 06/22/2020 Zambia 11 1430 1194
## 98 48764 06/23/2020 Zambia 18 1477 1213
## 99 49497 06/24/2020 Zambia 18 1489 1223
## 100 50230 06/25/2020 Zambia 18 1497 1223
## 101 50963 06/26/2020 Zambia 21 1531 1233
## 102 51696 06/27/2020 Zambia 21 1531 1233
## 103 52429 06/28/2020 Zambia 22 1557 1311
## 104 53162 06/29/2020 Zambia 22 1568 1311
## 105 53895 06/30/2020 Zambia 24 1594 1329
## 106 54628 07/01/2020 Zambia 30 1632 1348
## 107 55361 07/02/2020 Zambia 30 1632 1348
## 108 56094 07/03/2020 Zambia 30 1632 1348
## 109 56827 07/04/2020 Zambia 30 1632 1348
## 110 57560 07/05/2020 Zambia 30 1632 1348
## 111 58293 07/06/2020 Zambia 30 1632 1348
## 112 59026 07/07/2020 Zambia 42 1895 1348
## 113 59759 07/08/2020 Zambia 42 1895 1348
## 114 60492 07/09/2020 Zambia 42 1895 1348
## 115 61225 07/10/2020 Zambia 42 1895 1348
## 116 61958 07/11/2020 Zambia 42 1895 1348
## 117 62691 07/12/2020 Zambia 42 1895 1412
## 118 63424 07/13/2020 Zambia 42 1895 1412
## 119 64157 07/14/2020 Zambia 42 1895 1412
## 120 64890 07/15/2020 Zambia 42 1895 1412
## 121 65623 07/16/2020 Zambia 42 1895 1412
## 122 66355 07/17/2020 Zambia 109 2810 1450
## 123 67100 07/18/2020 Zambia 120 2980 1462
## 124 67846 07/19/2020 Zambia 120 2980 1462
## 125 68592 07/20/2020 Zambia 128 3326 1620
## 126 69338 07/21/2020 Zambia 128 3386 1620
## 127 70084 07/22/2020 Zambia 128 3583 1677
## 128 70830 07/23/2020 Zambia 134 3789 1677
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## 142 81283 08/06/2020 Zambia 199 7164 5786
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## 145 83524 08/09/2020 Zambia 235 8085 6698
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## 153 89494 08/17/2020 Zambia 264 9839 8575
## 154 90240 08/18/2020 Zambia 264 9981 8776
## 155 90986 08/19/2020 Zambia 269 10218 9126
## 156 91732 08/20/2020 Zambia 274 10372 9126
## 157 92478 08/21/2020 Zambia 277 10627 9126
## 158 93224 08/22/2020 Zambia 279 10831 9942
## 159 93970 08/23/2020 Zambia 280 11082 9942
## 160 94716 08/24/2020 Zambia 280 11148 10208
## 161 95462 08/25/2020 Zambia 282 11285 10400
## 162 96208 08/26/2020 Zambia 282 11376 10693
## 163 96954 08/27/2020 Zambia 282 11601 10840
## 164 97700 08/28/2020 Zambia 283 11779 10945
## 165 98446 08/29/2020 Zambia 284 11902 11092
## 166 99192 08/30/2020 Zambia 287 12025 11454
## 167 99938 08/31/2020 Zambia 288 12097 11469
## 168 100684 09/01/2020 Zambia 290 12381 11479
## 169 101430 09/02/2020 Zambia 292 12415 11494
## 170 102176 09/03/2020 Zambia 292 12523 11562
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## 175 105906 09/08/2020 Zambia 297 12952 11787
## 176 106652 09/09/2020 Zambia 300 13112 11839
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## 349 237750 03/01/2021 Zambia 1098 79002 75087
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## 382 262995 04/03/2021 Zambia 1215 88800 85017
## 383 263760 04/04/2021 Zambia 1220 88930 85068
## 384 264525 04/05/2021 Zambia 1222 89009 85178
## 385 265290 04/06/2021 Zambia 1224 89071 85338
## 386 266055 04/07/2021 Zambia 1224 89386 85409
## 387 266820 04/08/2021 Zambia 1225 89592 85446
## 388 267585 04/09/2021 Zambia 1226 89783 85559
## 389 268350 04/10/2021 Zambia 1226 89918 86813
## 390 269115 04/11/2021 Zambia 1226 90029 88018
## 391 269880 04/12/2021 Zambia 1227 90064 88077
## 392 270645 04/13/2021 Zambia 1229 90218 88144
## 393 271410 04/14/2021 Zambia 1229 90389 88241
## 394 272175 04/15/2021 Zambia 1230 90532 88283
## 395 272940 04/16/2021 Zambia 1233 90750 88414
## 396 273705 04/17/2021 Zambia 1234 90844 88555
## 397 274470 04/18/2021 Zambia 1235 90918 88718
## 398 275235 04/19/2021 Zambia 1236 90942 88860
## 399 276000 04/20/2021 Zambia 1236 91042 88900
## 400 276765 04/21/2021 Zambia 1238 91119 88956
## 401 277530 04/22/2021 Zambia 1240 91189 89117
## 402 278295 04/23/2021 Zambia 1245 91251 89256
## 403 279060 04/24/2021 Zambia 1245 91317 89403
## 404 279825 04/25/2021 Zambia 1246 91358 89574
## 405 280590 04/26/2021 Zambia 1248 91378 89678
## 406 281355 04/27/2021 Zambia 1249 91418 89717
## 407 282120 04/28/2021 Zambia 1249 91484 89743
## 408 282885 04/29/2021 Zambia 1250 91533 89852
## 409 283650 04/30/2021 Zambia 1251 91586 89933
## 410 284415 05/01/2021 Zambia 1251 91670 90012
## 411 285180 05/02/2021 Zambia 1253 91693 90082
## 412 285945 05/03/2021 Zambia 1253 91722 90130
## 413 286710 05/04/2021 Zambia 1254 91804 90166
## 414 287475 05/05/2021 Zambia 1255 91849 90198
## 415 288240 05/06/2021 Zambia 1256 91946 90264
## 416 289005 05/07/2021 Zambia 1256 92004 90316
## 417 289770 05/08/2021 Zambia 1257 92057 90363
## 418 290535 05/09/2021 Zambia 1257 92092 90428
## 419 291300 05/10/2021 Zambia 1257 92112 90501
## 420 292065 05/11/2021 Zambia 1258 92152 90539
## 421 292830 05/12/2021 Zambia 1259 92211 90574
## 422 293595 05/13/2021 Zambia 1260 92262 90635
## 423 294360 05/14/2021 Zambia 1260 92356 90699
## 424 295125 05/15/2021 Zambia 1260 92409 90777
## 425 295890 05/16/2021 Zambia 1260 92436 90816
## 426 296655 05/17/2021 Zambia 1261 92460 90862
## 427 297420 05/18/2021 Zambia 1263 92520 90892
## 428 298185 05/19/2021 Zambia 1263 92630 90919
## 429 298950 05/20/2021 Zambia 1265 92754 90955
## 430 299715 05/21/2021 Zambia 1266 92920 91019
## 431 300480 05/22/2021 Zambia 1267 93106 91102
## 432 301245 05/23/2021 Zambia 1268 93201 91156
## 433 302010 05/24/2021 Zambia 1271 93279 91200
## 434 302775 05/25/2021 Zambia 1271 93428 91221
## 435 303540 05/26/2021 Zambia 1273 93627 91239
## 436 304305 05/27/2021 Zambia 1275 93947 91321
## 437 305070 05/28/2021 Zambia 1275 94430 91443
## 438 305835 05/29/2021 Zambia 1276 94751 91594Box plot
ggplot(data = Zambia_Covid_data,mapping = aes(x=Country,y=Deaths,fill=Country))+geom_boxplot()
Density plots
par(mfrow=c(1,3))
ggplot(data = Zambia_Covid_data,aes(x=Deaths,fill=Country))+geom_density()
ggplot(data = Zambia_Covid_data,aes(x=Confirmed,fill=Country))+geom_density()
ggplot(data = Zambia_Covid_data,aes(x=Recovered,fill=Country))+geom_density()
library(lubridate)
U<-Zambia_Covid_data %>% mutate(date = mdy(Date))
U$Year<-year(U$date)Forecating Using ARIMA Model
Steps for our Forecasting Project:
1.Determine what is the problem: In this case we want to have accurate forecast of Covide cases.
2.Gathering Information: Understand what was the process that was used to gather the information and if the information is sufficient to have effective predictive models.
3.Implementing Exploratory Analysis: Determine if there are any sort of patterns in our data before going into building the models.
4.Choosing predictive models: This is the phase were we decide which model is the most appropiate to make our forecasting most effective.
5.Testing our model: Analyze if our model is effective enough to make effective predictions.
Covid 19 Forecating using Arima Model
F<-U %>% select(date,Deaths)
F## date Deaths
## 1 2020-03-18 0
## 2 2020-03-19 0
## 3 2020-03-20 0
## 4 2020-03-21 0
## 5 2020-03-22 0
## 6 2020-03-23 0
## 7 2020-03-24 0
## 8 2020-03-25 0
## 9 2020-03-26 0
## 10 2020-03-27 0
## 11 2020-03-28 0
## 12 2020-03-29 0
## 13 2020-03-30 0
## 14 2020-03-31 0
## 15 2020-04-01 0
## 16 2020-04-02 1
## 17 2020-04-03 1
## 18 2020-04-04 1
## 19 2020-04-05 1
## 20 2020-04-06 1
## 21 2020-04-07 1
## 22 2020-04-08 1
## 23 2020-04-09 1
## 24 2020-04-10 2
## 25 2020-04-11 2
## 26 2020-04-12 2
## 27 2020-04-13 2
## 28 2020-04-14 2
## 29 2020-04-15 2
## 30 2020-04-16 2
## 31 2020-04-17 2
## 32 2020-04-18 2
## 33 2020-04-19 3
## 34 2020-04-20 3
## 35 2020-04-21 3
## 36 2020-04-22 3
## 37 2020-04-23 3
## 38 2020-04-24 3
## 39 2020-04-25 3
## 40 2020-04-26 3
## 41 2020-04-27 3
## 42 2020-04-28 3
## 43 2020-04-29 3
## 44 2020-04-30 3
## 45 2020-05-01 3
## 46 2020-05-02 3
## 47 2020-05-03 3
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## 83 2020-06-08 10
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## 106 2020-07-01 30
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## 288 2020-12-30 386
## 289 2020-12-31 388
## 290 2021-01-01 390
## 291 2021-01-02 392
## 292 2021-01-03 394
## 293 2021-01-04 398
## 294 2021-01-05 412
## 295 2021-01-06 417
## 296 2021-01-07 423
## 297 2021-01-08 441
## 298 2021-01-09 464
## 299 2021-01-10 469
## 300 2021-01-11 471
## 301 2021-01-12 495
## 302 2021-01-13 509
## 303 2021-01-14 514
## 304 2021-01-15 527
## 305 2021-01-16 537
## 306 2021-01-17 546
## 307 2021-01-18 559
## 308 2021-01-19 578
## 309 2021-01-20 585
## 310 2021-01-21 597
## 311 2021-01-22 610
## 312 2021-01-23 627
## 313 2021-01-24 639
## 314 2021-01-25 660
## 315 2021-01-26 672
## 316 2021-01-27 688
## 317 2021-01-28 705
## 318 2021-01-29 728
## 319 2021-01-30 745
## 320 2021-01-31 763
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## 409 2021-04-30 1251
## 410 2021-05-01 1251
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## 435 2021-05-26 1273
## 436 2021-05-27 1275
## 437 2021-05-28 1275
## 438 2021-05-29 1276# Converting data to time series data
datts<-ts(F)
plot(F$date, F$Deaths, type = "l", col = "blue", lty = 1, lwd = 2,
xlab = "Date", ylab = "Deaths",
main = "Time Plot of COVID-19 Confirmed Cases Over Time in Zambia")
# ACF AND PACF plots
par(mfrow=c(1,2))
acf(F$Deaths,main= "ACF Plot")
pacf(F$Deaths,main="PACF PLOT")
Model Identification
We see from the time plot that the data is non stationary since the graph is an upward trend
And also from the ACF we see that on the correlogram plots does not decay quickly indicating non stationary
Making the data stationary
*Stationarity is an important concept in time series analysis. A stationary time series is one whose statistical properties, such as mean, variance, and autocorrelation, do not change over time. Non-stationary time series can exhibit trends or seasonality, making it difficult to model and analyze. Here are some common methods to make a time series stationary:
Differencing:
1.First Difference (d): Subtract each value from its previous value. This is useful for removing a linear trend.
A_ts_diff1 <- diff(A_ts, differences = 1)
2.Seasonal Difference (D): Subtract each value from its value at the same time in the previous season (e.g., subtract each January from the previous January).
A_ts_diff_seasonal <- diff(A_ts, differences = 12) # Assuming monthly data
Log Transformation:
Take the natural logarithm of the values. This is useful for stabilizing the variance when the data shows exponential growth.
A_ts_log <- log(A_ts)
Moving Average (Rolling Mean):
Smooth the time series by calculating the moving average. This can help remove short-term fluctuations.
A_ts_ma <- ma(A_ts, order = 3) # Adjust order as needed
Exponential Smoothing:
Use exponential smoothing techniques, such as the Holt-Winters method, to smooth out trends and seasonality.
A_ts_hw <- HoltWinters(A_ts)
A_ts_smooth <- fitted(A_ts_hw)
Remove Trends Using Regression:
Fit a regression model to the time series and remove the trend component.
model <- lm(A_ts ~ time(A_ts))
A_ts_detrended <- residuals(model)
Seasonal Decomposition:
Decompose the time series into its trend, seasonal, and residual components.
decomposed <- decompose(A_ts)
A_ts_detrended <- decomposed$random
After applying one or more of these techniques, visually inspect the time series and check statistical properties to ensure that it has become stationary. You can use tools like the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test to formally test for stationarity. Once the time series is stationary, it becomes easier to model and analyze using methods like ARIMA or SARIMA.
Diferencing
D<-F %>% select(Deaths)
tsD<-ts(D)
G<-diff(tsD)
plot(G,xlab = "Date", ylab = "Death Cases",
main = "Time Plot of COVID-19 Death Over Time in Zambia")
par(mfrow=c(1,2))
Acf(G)
Pacf(G)
K<-diff(G)
plot(K)
acf(K)
Pacf(K)
We see now that the data is stationary , we can even predict the parameter .Because the data has being differenced we can conclude that the best model is th ARIMA MODEL.
Mod1<-auto.arima( F$Deaths)
Mod1## Series: F$Deaths
## ARIMA(4,2,2)
##
## Coefficients:
## ar1 ar2 ar3 ar4 ma1 ma2
## 1.0981 -0.1931 0.2391 -0.2233 -1.9117 0.9321
## s.e. 0.0568 0.0695 0.0692 0.0526 0.0299 0.0294
##
## sigma^2 = 19.73: log likelihood = -1266.74
## AIC=2547.47 AICc=2547.73 BIC=2576.02R<- residuals(Mod1)
checkresiduals(Mod1)
##
## Ljung-Box test
##
## data: Residuals from ARIMA(4,2,2)
## Q* = 9.2015, df = 4, p-value = 0.05625
##
## Model df: 6. Total lags used: 10qqnorm(R)
qqline(R)
Let’s declare our data as time series
library(fpp2)## Warning: package 'fpp2' was built under R version 4.3.2## ── Attaching packages ────────────────────────────────────────────── fpp2 2.5 ──## ✔ fma 2.5 ✔ expsmooth 2.3## Warning: package 'fma' was built under R version 4.3.2## Warning: package 'expsmooth' was built under R version 4.3.2## M<-U %>% select(date,Deaths)
A_ts <- ts(M[,2], start=c(2020,1), frequency=365)
# The difference from month to month
# To remove the trend we take the first difference
differences_cov <- diff(A_ts)
main_diff <- autoplot(differences_cov) + theme_minimal()library(forecast)
# Assuming A_ts is your time series
# Try a simpler ARIMA model
arima_model_cv <- auto.arima(A_ts, d = 1, D = 0, stepwise = FALSE, approximation = FALSE)
print(summary(arima_model_cv))## Series: A_ts
## ARIMA(4,1,1)
##
## Coefficients:
## ar1 ar2 ar3 ar4 ma1
## 1.0229 -0.1540 0.2509 -0.1326 -0.8364
## s.e. 0.0652 0.0678 0.0669 0.0561 0.0422
##
## sigma^2 = 19.91: log likelihood = -1271.85
## AIC=2555.71 AICc=2555.9 BIC=2580.19
##
## Training set error measures:
## ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE
## Training set 0.2409119 4.43116 1.749932 0.3087438 2.144703 0.001419294
## ACF1
## Training set 0.0001556911checkresiduals(arima_model_cv) + theme_minimal()
##
## Ljung-Box test
##
## data: Residuals from ARIMA(4,1,1)
## Q* = 70.079, df = 83, p-value = 0.8432
##
## Model df: 5. Total lags used: 88## NULLforecast_cv <- forecast(arima_model_cv, h=24)
# Include means including the last 60 months in order to see closer the forecast.
autoplot(forecast_cv, include=60) + theme_minimal() + theme(plot.title=element_text(hjust=0.5), plot.background=element_rect(fill="#F4F6F7"),
legend.position="bottom", legend.background = element_rect(fill="#FFF9F5",
size=0.5, linetype="solid",
colour ="black")) +
labs(title="Forecasting using ARIMA model \n Covid Deaths", x="date", y="Deaths")## Warning: The `size` argument of `element_rect()` is deprecated as of ggplot2 3.4.0.
## ℹ Please use the `linewidth` argument instead.
## This warning is displayed once every 8 hours.
## Call `lifecycle::last_lifecycle_warnings()` to see where this warning was
## generated.
forecast_cv## Point Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95
## 2021.2000 1277.274 1271.556 1282.992 1268.529 1286.019
## 2021.2027 1278.158 1269.285 1287.031 1264.588 1291.728
## 2021.2055 1279.117 1267.818 1290.416 1261.837 1296.397
## 2021.2082 1280.149 1266.021 1294.277 1258.542 1301.756
## 2021.2110 1281.110 1264.097 1298.123 1255.091 1307.129
## 2021.2137 1282.057 1262.231 1301.884 1251.735 1312.379
## 2021.2164 1283.010 1260.292 1305.727 1248.266 1317.753
## 2021.2192 1283.943 1258.267 1309.619 1244.674 1323.211
## 2021.2219 1284.861 1256.186 1313.535 1241.007 1328.715
## 2021.2247 1285.770 1254.040 1317.499 1237.244 1334.295
## 2021.2274 1286.666 1251.823 1321.508 1233.378 1339.953
## 2021.2301 1287.549 1249.540 1325.557 1229.420 1345.678
## 2021.2329 1288.420 1247.194 1329.647 1225.369 1351.472
## 2021.2356 1289.280 1244.783 1333.777 1221.228 1357.333
## 2021.2384 1290.129 1242.313 1337.945 1217.000 1363.257
## 2021.2411 1290.966 1239.783 1342.148 1212.688 1369.243
## 2021.2438 1291.791 1237.197 1346.386 1208.296 1375.287
## 2021.2466 1292.606 1234.555 1350.656 1203.826 1381.386
## 2021.2493 1293.409 1231.862 1354.956 1199.281 1387.538
## 2021.2521 1294.202 1229.118 1359.286 1194.664 1393.739
## 2021.2548 1294.984 1226.325 1363.643 1189.979 1399.989
## 2021.2575 1295.755 1223.485 1368.025 1185.228 1406.282
## 2021.2603 1296.516 1220.601 1372.431 1180.414 1412.619
## 2021.2630 1297.267 1217.674 1376.861 1175.539 1418.995