Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update

Author

DevLab@Penn

Published

December 5, 2023

Introduction

We have updated data and forecasts for Pakistan, Angola, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal, South Sudan, Azerbaijan, Nicaragua, and Peru. We have updated data for Mali. We are forecasting major events for Angola, Azerbaijan, and Nicaragua.

In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.

We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.

MLP Website: here

PW Protected Page: here (email mlpeace-devlab@sas.upenn.edu for access)

Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here

Current country coverage

New Country: Pakistan

Pakistan is a new country. Our data includes coverage through the end of September 2023. Over the last three months, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Troop Mobilization in September: The Gilgit-Baltistan government decided to call in the army to maintain peace due to the worsening law and order situation. This decision was made during a meeting of the parliamentary peace committee.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Angola

For Angola, our data includes coverage through the end of September 2023. Since the data was last updated through June, we did not see reporting on any major events.

Forecasting

Our shock models are predicting a spike in reporting on Lethal Violence in Q4 2023, Protests in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024, and Corruption in Q1 and Q2 2024.

In our last update, our standard models were predicting a spike in Civic Activism in Q1 2024. Our updated models are still predicting this spike. However, the forecast confidence of these updated models has fallen below our reporting threshold.

Kenya

For Kenya, our data includes coverage through the end of October 2023. Since the data was last updated through July, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Purge/Replace in October: President Ruto ordered the dismissal of twenty-three forest managers and rangers over graft allegations. There was also a significant cabinet reshuffle by President Ruto. The reshuffle involved changes in several key ministries.
  • Troop Mobilization in October: The Kenyan government decided to deploy special forces in Haiti. This decision generated a great deal of public backlash.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Mali

For Mali, our data includes coverage through the end of October 2023. Since the data was last updated through July, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Election Irregularities in October: The government decided to postpone elections, originally scheduled for February 2024, and extend the transition period in Mali.
  • Non-lethal Violence in September: The Malian Armed Forces successfully repelled a terrorist attack on September 17, 2023, at the Leré military camp in the Timbuktu region. On September 3, 2023, Mali’s Armed and Security Forces thwarted a terrorist assault on the Dialakoroba position along the Bamako-Sikasso axis.
  • Political Threats in August: The Mali Health Union Platform filed a strike notice. They demanded the adoption of the draft Statute for Health Officers, integration of qualified personnel of the ASACO Fund into public service, and the creation of a bridge between the public service. There were multiple mentions of the United States imposing sanctions against senior Malian officers, which the Prime Minister of Mali condemned as unfair.

Forecasting

Due to the low volume of articles from local sources, we do not publish forecasts for Mali.

Nigeria

For Nigeria, our data includes coverage through the end of September 2023. Since the data was last updated through July, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Protests in September: Residents of Rafin Zurfi area in Bauchi metropolis protested against the detention of their traditional ruler, Mai Angwa Rafin Zurfi (Patrick Aliyu), his wife, his elder sister, and another person. The situation escalated as police attempted to calm the situation, ultimately resorting to firing tear gas at the protesters to disperse them and reopen the road.
  • Purge/Replace in September: The Abia State Government refuted reports claiming the dismissal of 10,000 workers. The government clarified that no such mass dismissal occurred, emphasizing the stability and continuity of employment for state workers. The Ondo State chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC) suspended Olumide Awolumate, the Ward 1 Chairman, for allegedly assaulting the Commissioner for Women Affairs and Social Development, Olubunmi Osadahun.
  • Irregular Transition in August: There are multiple mentions of ECOWAS scheduling meetings and considering actions in response to a coup in Niger. This includes discussions about reinstating the ousted President Mohamed Bazoum and possible sanctions or military intervention against the junta in Niger. There’s a recurring theme of possible military intervention in Niger by West African countries, as well as discussions on the risks and implications of such an action.
  • Political Cooperation in August: High-level political discussions took center stage in Nigeria, with President Bola Tinubu and Senate President Godswill Akpabio engaging in critical meetings. The Nigerian Senate was actively involved in debates concerning constitutional provisions and the oversight of ministerial appointments.
  • Troop Mobilization in August: There are discussions about the potential deployment of ECOWAS troops to Niger, including concerns expressed by the Yoruba Council Worldwide.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Senegal

For Senegal, our data includes coverage through the end of October 2023. Since the data was last updated through July, we did not see reporting on any major events.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

In our May update, our shock models predicted an increase in Legal Changes in Q3 and Q4 2023. Consistent with this prediction, we saw a surge in reporting on Legal Changes in Q3. This event was described in our August update.

In our last update, our shock models predicted a shock to Civic Activism in Q4 2023. Consistent with this prediction, we saw a surge in reporting on Civic Activism in Q4.

South Sudan

For South Sudan, our data includes coverage through the end of September 2023. Since the data was last updated through June, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Legal Changes in September: The South Sudanese parliament passed a contentious elections act that grants the President the authority to appoint members of the National Elections Commission (NEC).
  • Civic Activism in July: Activists advised the unity government against the Uganda power deal, suggesting alternative solutions for energy needs. This stance highlights concerns over foreign dependence and the need for sustainable, local energy solutions.
  • Election Activity in July: President Salva Kiir traveled to Wau to participate in a major SPLM (Sudan People’s Liberation Movement) rally. The Minister of Information announced the government’s commitment to allocate funds for elections in the 2024/2025 budget.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Azerbaijan

For Azerbaijan, our data includes coverage through the end of September 2023. Since the data was last updated through April, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Non-lethal Violence September: Over 88,700 people moved from Karabakh to Armenia in less than a week, as stated by Kavita Belani of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees in Armenia. Azerbaijani Army positions in Dashkasan and Shahbuzz were shelled by Armenian armed forces, using small arms and mortars. Azerbaijani Army positions near Aghdam were attacked by illegal Armenian armed groups.
  • Troop Mobilization September: The Azerbaijani Armed Forces have made advances in the northern, southern, and eastern directions, capturing key military units and areas including the Amaras religious complex. Armenian sources report a significant exodus from Karabakh, with a large number of people, about 85,000, leaving the region and towns like Khojavand and Aghdara nearly deserted.
  • Election Irregularities in September: The Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed gratitude to countries that did not recognize the “elections” in Nagorno-Karabakh. Romania and the UK were included in the countries who did not recognize these elections as legitimate.

Forecasting

Our models are predicting a shock to Purge/Replace in Q4 2023

Nicaragua

For Nicaragua, our data includes coverage through the end of October 2023. Since the data was last updated through July, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Political Cooperation in September: The Colombian President proposed an agreement with Nicaragua to allow fishing for the El Razal community. The Vatican, from the United Nations, called on Nicaragua to engage in “respectful diplomatic dialogue.”

Forecasting

Our shock models are predicting a shock to arrests in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024.

Peru

Peru’s results are password protected. Please email for access.