library(readxl)
library(tidyverse)
## ── Attaching core tidyverse packages ──────────────────────── tidyverse 2.0.0 ──
## ✔ dplyr 1.1.3 ✔ readr 2.1.4
## ✔ forcats 1.0.0 ✔ stringr 1.5.0
## ✔ ggplot2 3.4.4 ✔ tibble 3.2.1
## ✔ lubridate 1.9.3 ✔ tidyr 1.3.0
## ✔ purrr 1.0.2
## ── Conflicts ────────────────────────────────────────── tidyverse_conflicts() ──
## ✖ dplyr::filter() masks stats::filter()
## ✖ dplyr::lag() masks stats::lag()
## ℹ Use the conflicted package (<http://conflicted.r-lib.org/>) to force all conflicts to become errors
## corrplot 0.92 loaded
library(tidyr)
library(psych)
##
## Attaching package: 'psych'
##
## The following objects are masked from 'package:ggplot2':
##
## %+%, alpha
library(ggplot2)
Datosepi2 <- read_excel("Base de datos modelo en cebada.xlsx",
col_types = c("numeric", "numeric", "numeric",
"numeric", "numeric", "numeric",
"numeric", "numeric", "numeric",
"numeric", "numeric", "numeric",
"numeric", "numeric", "numeric",
"numeric", "numeric"))
str(Datosepi2)
## tibble [69 × 17] (S3: tbl_df/tbl/data.frame)
## $ Dia : num [1:69] 2023240 2023241 2023242 2023243 2023244 ...
## $ h diarias t (10-18)° : num [1:69] 9 9 22 7 8 11 12 18 13 10 ...
## $ t max (°C) : num [1:69] 15 14.5 14.9 14.7 15 ...
## $ t min (°C) : num [1:69] 13.2 12.4 13.4 13.1 13.3 ...
## $ h con DPV : num [1:69] 17 12 28 14 12 9 9 15 14 16 ...
## $ DPV min (kpa) : num [1:69] 0.451 0.335 0.382 0.497 0.438 ...
## $ HR max (%) : num [1:69] 77 83.5 80.8 76.1 80.3 ...
## $ h diarias HR >65% : num [1:69] 15 18 34 14 15 21 20 19 19 14 ...
## $ HR min (%) : num [1:69] 70 74.9 73.7 69.7 72.9 ...
## $ Precipitación [mm] : num [1:69] 0 13.4 0 0 0 17.6 0.2 0.4 0 0 ...
## $ H diarias con pp(mm) : num [1:69] 0 3 3 0 0 5 1 2 0 0 ...
## $ Vel viento max(m/s) : num [1:69] 1.53 1.3 1.67 1.78 1.56 ...
## $ h diarias con vel viento >2m/s: num [1:69] 7 8 17 11 9 8 4 7 9 10 ...
## $ Incidencia : num [1:69] 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 ...
## $ Severidad 1 : num [1:69] 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 ...
## $ Severidad : num [1:69] 0.594 0.594 0.594 0.594 0.594 ...
## $ Aplicaciones de fungicida : num [1:69] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## h diarias t (10-18)° t max (°C) t min (°C)
## h diarias t (10-18)° 33.20502984 1.26631953 2.58403711
## t max (°C) 1.26631953 1.13551255 1.23780410
## t min (°C) 2.58403711 1.23780410 1.43997572
## h con DPV 2.87297528 0.38754540 0.03649818
## DPV min (kpa) -0.32758313 0.03591035 0.01767929
## HR max (%) 14.39408548 -1.53159178 -0.66829141
## h diarias HR >65% 20.67710997 0.32543549 0.78100033
## HR min (%) 16.02351062 -2.24761733 -1.18487867
## Precipitación [mm] -2.61611253 -0.10158068 -0.22401736
## H diarias con pp(mm) 5.39151748 0.03801681 0.44464782
## Vel viento max(m/s) 4.91107674 0.07455652 0.45018806
## h diarias con vel viento >2m/s -3.54390452 0.13843390 -0.27993787
## Incidencia 16.31847471 -2.56028838 -0.24580889
## Severidad 1 -7.17710997 0.43369511 0.39500745
## Severidad -0.55150256 0.03536588 0.03406565
## Aplicaciones de fungicida -0.01300085 -0.01969278 -0.02429767
## h con DPV DPV min (kpa) HR max (%)
## h diarias t (10-18)° 2.87297528 -0.3275831350 14.39408548
## t max (°C) 0.38754540 0.0359103504 -1.53159178
## t min (°C) 0.03649818 0.0176792936 -0.66829141
## h con DPV 18.77919864 0.2925393547 -15.94100082
## DPV min (kpa) 0.29253935 0.0137780370 -0.67377220
## HR max (%) -15.94100082 -0.6737722014 33.94160644
## h diarias HR >65% 5.00703325 -0.2990167438 14.14792534
## HR min (%) -18.98132095 -0.7706876161 38.89449754
## Precipitación [mm] -8.78312020 -0.1144668297 7.29251583
## H diarias con pp(mm) -5.13448423 -0.1357951773 7.14436479
## Vel viento max(m/s) -3.72855929 -0.0851081489 4.06778790
## h diarias con vel viento >2m/s 8.95822677 0.2099521052 -10.39830678
## Incidencia -53.82153311 -1.7258551895 87.41040811
## Severidad 1 -9.22394501 -0.1827311751 11.38739277
## Severidad -0.76018622 -0.0152526165 0.94345565
## Aplicaciones de fungicida 0.01875533 -0.0002677578 -0.01449959
## h diarias HR >65% HR min (%)
## h diarias t (10-18)° 20.67710997 16.02351062
## t max (°C) 0.32543549 -2.24761733
## t min (°C) 0.78100033 -1.18487867
## h con DPV 5.00703325 -18.98132095
## DPV min (kpa) -0.29901674 -0.77068762
## HR max (%) 14.14792534 38.89449754
## h diarias HR >65% 27.48849105 14.32104784
## HR min (%) 14.32104784 46.07585415
## Precipitación [mm] 0.27826087 7.51913050
## H diarias con pp(mm) 2.46739130 9.04423327
## Vel viento max(m/s) -1.39543927 5.59565271
## h diarias con vel viento >2m/s 0.49616368 -11.65672235
## Incidencia 17.46745524 97.70103176
## Severidad 1 0.25415601 13.30735864
## Severidad 0.02667839 1.10485342
## Aplicaciones de fungicida -0.06010230 -0.01187915
## Precipitación [mm] H diarias con pp(mm)
## h diarias t (10-18)° -2.6161125 5.39151748
## t max (°C) -0.1015807 0.03801681
## t min (°C) -0.2240174 0.44464782
## h con DPV -8.7831202 -5.13448423
## DPV min (kpa) -0.1144668 -0.13579518
## HR max (%) 7.2925158 7.14436479
## h diarias HR >65% 0.2782609 2.46739130
## HR min (%) 7.5191305 9.04423327
## Precipitación [mm] 44.4419437 6.91291560
## H diarias con pp(mm) 6.9129156 11.36104007
## Vel viento max(m/s) 1.0369027 8.41651344
## h diarias con vel viento >2m/s -1.6356777 -2.85890878
## Incidencia 7.9790494 11.82511012
## Severidad 1 -1.8459079 2.26422634
## Severidad -0.1413947 0.19740249
## Aplicaciones de fungicida -0.1618926 -0.07715260
## Vel viento max(m/s)
## h diarias t (10-18)° 4.91107674
## t max (°C) 0.07455652
## t min (°C) 0.45018806
## h con DPV -3.72855929
## DPV min (kpa) -0.08510815
## HR max (%) 4.06778790
## h diarias HR >65% -1.39543927
## HR min (%) 5.59565271
## Precipitación [mm] 1.03690266
## H diarias con pp(mm) 8.41651344
## Vel viento max(m/s) 14.21595400
## h diarias con vel viento >2m/s -3.21838716
## Incidencia 8.79836929
## Severidad 1 2.52822304
## Severidad 0.22043210
## Aplicaciones de fungicida -0.03723211
## h diarias con vel viento >2m/s Incidencia
## h diarias t (10-18)° -3.543905e+00 16.3184747
## t max (°C) 1.384339e-01 -2.5602884
## t min (°C) -2.799379e-01 -0.2458089
## h con DPV 8.958227e+00 -53.8215331
## DPV min (kpa) 2.099521e-01 -1.7258552
## HR max (%) -1.039831e+01 87.4104081
## h diarias HR >65% 4.961637e-01 17.4674552
## HR min (%) -1.165672e+01 97.7010318
## Precipitación [mm] -1.635678e+00 7.9790494
## H diarias con pp(mm) -2.858909e+00 11.8251101
## Vel viento max(m/s) -3.218387e+00 8.7983693
## h diarias con vel viento >2m/s 8.753623e+00 -39.1244103
## Incidencia -3.912441e+01 928.3716035
## Severidad 1 -1.716752e+00 117.1601796
## Severidad -1.528413e-01 9.5041226
## Aplicaciones de fungicida -4.262575e-04 0.9449133
## Severidad 1 Severidad
## h diarias t (10-18)° -7.1771100 -0.55150256
## t max (°C) 0.4336951 0.03536588
## t min (°C) 0.3950074 0.03406565
## h con DPV -9.2239450 -0.76018622
## DPV min (kpa) -0.1827312 -0.01525262
## HR max (%) 11.3873928 0.94345565
## h diarias HR >65% 0.2541560 0.02667839
## HR min (%) 13.3073586 1.10485342
## Precipitación [mm] -1.8459079 -0.14139466
## H diarias con pp(mm) 2.2642263 0.19740249
## Vel viento max(m/s) 2.5282230 0.22043210
## h diarias con vel viento >2m/s -1.7167519 -0.15284127
## Incidencia 117.1601796 9.50412264
## Severidad 1 57.0712116 4.58793558
## Severidad 4.5879356 0.36891884
## Aplicaciones de fungicida 0.1630435 0.01293159
## Aplicaciones de fungicida
## h diarias t (10-18)° -0.0130008525
## t max (°C) -0.0196927837
## t min (°C) -0.0242976668
## h con DPV 0.0187553282
## DPV min (kpa) -0.0002677578
## HR max (%) -0.0144995915
## h diarias HR >65% -0.0601023018
## HR min (%) -0.0118791530
## Precipitación [mm] -0.1618925831
## H diarias con pp(mm) -0.0771526002
## Vel viento max(m/s) -0.0372321090
## h diarias con vel viento >2m/s -0.0004262575
## Incidencia 0.9449133276
## Severidad 1 0.1630434783
## Severidad 0.0129315857
## Aplicaciones de fungicida 0.0848252344
c2 <- cor(Datosepi2[, 2:17]) #correlacion estadistico de covarianza estandarizado, entre -1 y 1
x2<- Datosepi2[,2:17]
cm2 <- colMeans(x2); cm2 #Media de las vaiables
## h diarias t (10-18)° t max (°C)
## 14.97101449 14.35675649
## t min (°C) h con DPV
## 12.86378950 11.68115942
## DPV min (kpa) HR max (%)
## 0.23184355 88.58118056
## h diarias HR >65% HR min (%)
## 21.52173913 82.32298727
## Precipitación [mm] H diarias con pp(mm)
## 2.85217391 1.81159420
## Vel viento max(m/s) h diarias con vel viento >2m/s
## 1.97982085 6.50724638
## Incidencia Severidad 1
## 83.10314010 14.72826087
## Severidad Aplicaciones de fungicida
## 1.18016304 0.05797101
hist(Datosepi2$Severidad)
hist(Datosepi2$`Severidad 1`)
nortest::ad.test(Datosepi2$`Severidad 1`)
##
## Anderson-Darling normality test
##
## data: Datosepi2$`Severidad 1`
## A = 9.1672, p-value < 2.2e-16
sev2 <- Datosepi2$Severidad ## simetria, se va a tomar como un factor de 0, 1 y 2 para distintos grados de enfermedad ?
sev3 <- Datosepi2$`Severidad 1`
barplot(sev2)
psych::describe(Datosepi2)
## vars n mean sd median trimmed
## Dia 1 69 2023294.29 55.80 2023281.00 2023283.30
## h diarias t (10-18)° 2 69 14.97 5.76 15.00 14.61
## t max (°C) 3 69 14.36 1.07 14.49 14.49
## t min (°C) 4 69 12.86 1.20 13.15 13.01
## h con DPV 5 69 11.68 4.33 11.00 11.40
## DPV min (kpa) 6 69 0.23 0.12 0.22 0.23
## HR max (%) 7 69 88.58 5.83 89.14 88.75
## h diarias HR >65% 8 69 21.52 5.24 22.00 21.09
## HR min (%) 9 69 82.32 6.79 81.80 82.28
## Precipitación [mm] 10 69 2.85 6.67 0.20 1.19
## H diarias con pp(mm) 11 69 1.81 3.37 1.00 1.16
## Vel viento max(m/s) 12 69 1.98 3.77 1.34 1.35
## h diarias con vel viento >2m/s 13 69 6.51 2.96 7.00 6.44
## Incidencia 14 69 83.10 30.47 98.33 87.62
## Severidad 1 15 69 14.73 7.55 12.50 13.62
## Severidad 16 69 1.18 0.61 1.00 1.09
## Aplicaciones de fungicida 17 69 0.06 0.29 0.00 0.00
## mad min max range skew
## Dia 25.20 2023240.00 2023453.00 213.00 2.07
## h diarias t (10-18)° 5.93 6.00 34.00 28.00 0.63
## t max (°C) 0.72 8.05 15.76 7.71 -3.26
## t min (°C) 0.92 6.13 14.41 8.28 -2.85
## h con DPV 2.97 3.00 28.00 25.00 1.15
## DPV min (kpa) 0.14 0.00 0.53 0.53 0.27
## HR max (%) 6.82 74.41 99.96 25.55 -0.24
## h diarias HR >65% 2.97 14.00 48.00 34.00 2.33
## HR min (%) 7.01 68.06 99.96 31.90 0.14
## Precipitación [mm] 0.30 0.00 32.80 32.80 3.02
## H diarias con pp(mm) 1.48 0.00 24.00 24.00 4.38
## Vel viento max(m/s) 0.28 0.90 26.40 25.50 5.62
## h diarias con vel viento >2m/s 2.97 0.00 17.00 17.00 0.46
## Incidencia 2.47 23.30 100.00 76.70 -1.43
## Severidad 1 0.00 7.50 32.50 25.00 1.52
## Severidad 0.00 0.59 2.60 2.01 1.49
## Aplicaciones de fungicida 0.00 0.00 2.00 2.00 5.27
## kurtosis se
## Dia 3.26 6.72
## h diarias t (10-18)° 0.27 0.69
## t max (°C) 15.90 0.13
## t min (°C) 12.71 0.14
## h con DPV 2.75 0.52
## DPV min (kpa) -0.59 0.01
## HR max (%) -0.67 0.70
## h diarias HR >65% 9.04 0.63
## HR min (%) -0.46 0.82
## Precipitación [mm] 9.14 0.80
## H diarias con pp(mm) 24.80 0.41
## Vel viento max(m/s) 30.76 0.45
## h diarias con vel viento >2m/s 0.85 0.36
## Incidencia 0.07 3.67
## Severidad 1 1.18 0.91
## Severidad 1.09 0.07
## Aplicaciones de fungicida 28.82 0.04
scatter.hist(log(sev2), Datosepi2$`h diarias t (10-18)°`)
scatter.hist(sev2, Datosepi2$`t max (°C)`)
scatter.hist(sev2, Datosepi2$`t min (°C)`)
scatter.hist(sev2, Datosepi2$`h con DPV`)
scatter.hist(log(sev2), Datosepi2$`DPV min (kpa)`)
scatter.hist(sev2, Datosepi2$`HR max (%)`)
scatter.hist(sev2, Datosepi2$`h diarias HR >65%`)
scatter.hist(log(sev2), Datosepi2$`HR min (%)`)#alta correlacion, sube al aplicarse una transformación log
scatter.hist(1/(sev2), Datosepi2$`Precipitación [mm]`)
scatter.hist(sev2, Datosepi2$`H diarias con pp(mm)`)
scatter.hist(sev2, Datosepi2$`Vel viento max(m/s)`)
scatter.hist(sev2, Datosepi2$`h diarias con vel viento >2m/s`)
scatter.hist(sev2, Datosepi2$`Severidad 1`)
scatter.hist(sev2, Datosepi2$Severidad)
scatter.hist(sev2, Datosepi2$`Aplicaciones de fungicida`)
data2 <- Datosepi2 %>% mutate(`Aplicaciones de fungicida`= (`Aplicaciones de fungicida`))
summary(data2)
## Dia h diarias t (10-18)° t max (°C) t min (°C)
## Min. :2023240 Min. : 6.00 Min. : 8.05 Min. : 6.13
## 1st Qu.:2023264 1st Qu.:10.00 1st Qu.:14.07 1st Qu.:12.43
## Median :2023281 Median :15.00 Median :14.49 Median :13.15
## Mean :2023294 Mean :14.97 Mean :14.36 Mean :12.86
## 3rd Qu.:2023298 3rd Qu.:18.00 3rd Qu.:15.00 3rd Qu.:13.58
## Max. :2023453 Max. :34.00 Max. :15.76 Max. :14.41
## h con DPV DPV min (kpa) HR max (%) h diarias HR >65%
## Min. : 3.00 Min. :0.0000 Min. :74.41 Min. :14.00
## 1st Qu.: 9.00 1st Qu.:0.1504 1st Qu.:83.92 1st Qu.:18.00
## Median :11.00 Median :0.2167 Median :89.14 Median :22.00
## Mean :11.68 Mean :0.2318 Mean :88.58 Mean :21.52
## 3rd Qu.:14.00 3rd Qu.:0.3200 3rd Qu.:92.81 3rd Qu.:24.00
## Max. :28.00 Max. :0.5271 Max. :99.96 Max. :48.00
## HR min (%) Precipitación [mm] H diarias con pp(mm) Vel viento max(m/s)
## Min. :68.06 Min. : 0.000 Min. : 0.000 Min. : 0.900
## 1st Qu.:77.27 1st Qu.: 0.000 1st Qu.: 0.000 1st Qu.: 1.179
## Median :81.80 Median : 0.200 Median : 1.000 Median : 1.337
## Mean :82.32 Mean : 2.852 Mean : 1.812 Mean : 1.980
## 3rd Qu.:86.83 3rd Qu.: 1.200 3rd Qu.: 3.000 3rd Qu.: 1.529
## Max. :99.96 Max. :32.800 Max. :24.000 Max. :26.400
## h diarias con vel viento >2m/s Incidencia Severidad 1
## Min. : 0.000 Min. : 23.30 Min. : 7.50
## 1st Qu.: 4.000 1st Qu.: 93.75 1st Qu.:12.50
## Median : 7.000 Median : 98.33 Median :12.50
## Mean : 6.507 Mean : 83.10 Mean :14.73
## 3rd Qu.: 9.000 3rd Qu.:100.00 3rd Qu.:12.50
## Max. :17.000 Max. :100.00 Max. :32.50
## Severidad Aplicaciones de fungicida
## Min. :0.5938 Min. :0.00000
## 1st Qu.:1.0000 1st Qu.:0.00000
## Median :1.0000 Median :0.00000
## Mean :1.1802 Mean :0.05797
## 3rd Qu.:1.0000 3rd Qu.:0.00000
## Max. :2.6000 Max. :2.00000
## tibble [69 × 17] (S3: tbl_df/tbl/data.frame)
## $ Dia : num [1:69] 2023240 2023241 2023242 2023243 2023244 ...
## $ h diarias t (10-18)° : num [1:69] 9 9 22 7 8 11 12 18 13 10 ...
## $ t max (°C) : num [1:69] 15 14.5 14.9 14.7 15 ...
## $ t min (°C) : num [1:69] 13.2 12.4 13.4 13.1 13.3 ...
## $ h con DPV : num [1:69] 17 12 28 14 12 9 9 15 14 16 ...
## $ DPV min (kpa) : num [1:69] 0.451 0.335 0.382 0.497 0.438 ...
## $ HR max (%) : num [1:69] 77 83.5 80.8 76.1 80.3 ...
## $ h diarias HR >65% : num [1:69] 15 18 34 14 15 21 20 19 19 14 ...
## $ HR min (%) : num [1:69] 70 74.9 73.7 69.7 72.9 ...
## $ Precipitación [mm] : num [1:69] 0 13.4 0 0 0 17.6 0.2 0.4 0 0 ...
## $ H diarias con pp(mm) : num [1:69] 0 3 3 0 0 5 1 2 0 0 ...
## $ Vel viento max(m/s) : num [1:69] 1.53 1.3 1.67 1.78 1.56 ...
## $ h diarias con vel viento >2m/s: num [1:69] 7 8 17 11 9 8 4 7 9 10 ...
## $ Incidencia : num [1:69] 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 ...
## $ Severidad 1 : num [1:69] 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 ...
## $ Severidad : num [1:69] 0.594 0.594 0.594 0.594 0.594 ...
## $ Aplicaciones de fungicida : num [1:69] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
attach(data2)
hist(data2$Severidad)
# Ajustar el modelo lineal generalizado
mod4 <- glm(log(Severidad) ~ ., data = data2)
summary(mod4)
##
## Call:
## glm(formula = log(Severidad) ~ ., data = data2)
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) 2.924e+00 1.629e+02 0.018 0.9858
## Dia -2.062e-06 8.052e-05 -0.026 0.9797
## `h diarias t (10-18)°` 1.756e-03 1.639e-03 1.071 0.2890
## `t max (°C)` 1.473e-02 3.129e-02 0.471 0.6397
## `t min (°C)` -5.171e-03 2.694e-02 -0.192 0.8486
## `h con DPV` -5.799e-04 2.081e-03 -0.279 0.7817
## `DPV min (kpa)` 7.589e-02 2.393e-01 0.317 0.7524
## `HR max (%)` -6.614e-03 7.817e-03 -0.846 0.4013
## `h diarias HR >65%` -4.871e-04 1.511e-03 -0.322 0.7485
## `HR min (%)` 8.800e-03 4.679e-03 1.881 0.0656 .
## `Precipitación [mm]` 2.032e-04 6.209e-04 0.327 0.7447
## `H diarias con pp(mm)` 2.550e-04 1.668e-03 0.153 0.8791
## `Vel viento max(m/s)` 2.205e-03 1.369e-03 1.611 0.1132
## `h diarias con vel viento >2m/s` -2.411e-03 2.143e-03 -1.125 0.2657
## Incidencia 3.661e-03 1.779e-04 20.582 <2e-16 ***
## `Severidad 1` 4.795e-02 6.308e-04 76.023 <2e-16 ***
## `Aplicaciones de fungicida` -6.464e-03 1.209e-02 -0.535 0.5951
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.0007981258)
##
## Null deviance: 13.026376 on 68 degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 0.041503 on 52 degrees of freedom
## AIC: -279.9
##
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2
# Obtener los coeficientes del modelo
coeficientes <- coef(mod4)
# División de los datos en train y test
# ==============================================================================
set.seed(123)
n_filas_prediccion <- 69
id_train2 <- sample(nrow(data2), size = 0.7*nrow(data2), replace = F)
str(id_train2)
## int [1:48] 31 51 14 42 50 54 43 37 52 67 ...
id_test2 <- setdiff(nrow(data2), id_train2)
datos_train2 <- data2[id_train2, ]
str(datos_train2)
## tibble [48 × 17] (S3: tbl_df/tbl/data.frame)
## $ Dia : num [1:48] 2023270 2023290 2023453 2023281 2023289 ...
## $ h diarias t (10-18)° : num [1:48] 9 16 20 18 14 13 11 12 15 23 ...
## $ t max (°C) : num [1:48] 13.4 13.9 15 15.5 14.3 ...
## $ t min (°C) : num [1:48] 11.6 12.3 13.8 14.3 12.8 ...
## $ h con DPV : num [1:48] 9 7 11 11 10 10 9 11 11 5 ...
## $ DPV min (kpa) : num [1:48] 0.157 0.125 0.263 0.207 0.173 ...
## $ HR max (%) : num [1:48] 92.7 93.7 86.9 90.3 90.9 ...
## $ h diarias HR >65% : num [1:48] 22 24 20 22 23 23 22 24 20 24 ...
## $ HR min (%) : num [1:48] 86.3 88.2 79.7 84.4 84 ...
## $ Precipitación [mm] : num [1:48] 1.4 32.8 0 0 0 0 23.6 0.6 0.2 8.4 ...
## $ H diarias con pp(mm) : num [1:48] 3 3 0 0 0 0 3 2 1 8 ...
## $ Vel viento max(m/s) : num [1:48] 1.3 1.27 1.3 1.33 1.24 ...
## $ h diarias con vel viento >2m/s: num [1:48] 6 5 7 5 4 5 7 6 7 3 ...
## $ Incidencia : num [1:48] 100 98.3 23.3 93.8 98.3 ...
## $ Severidad 1 : num [1:48] 32.5 12.5 7.5 12.5 12.5 ...
## $ Severidad : num [1:48] 2.6 1 0.594 1 1 ...
## $ Aplicaciones de fungicida : num [1:48] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
datos_test2 <- data2[-id_train2, ]
str(datos_test2)
## tibble [21 × 17] (S3: tbl_df/tbl/data.frame)
## $ Dia : num [1:21] 2023240 2023242 2023243 2023450 2023452 ...
## $ h diarias t (10-18)° : num [1:21] 9 22 7 18 8 7 17 10 15 12 ...
## $ t max (°C) : num [1:21] 15 14.9 14.7 14.3 14.5 ...
## $ t min (°C) : num [1:21] 13.2 13.4 13.1 12.8 12.4 ...
## $ h con DPV : num [1:21] 17 28 14 16 13 11 15 17 14 10 ...
## $ DPV min (kpa) : num [1:21] 0.451 0.382 0.497 0.32 0.336 ...
## $ HR max (%) : num [1:21] 77 80.8 76.1 82.8 83.1 ...
## $ h diarias HR >65% : num [1:21] 15 34 14 18 18 17 21 16 16 19 ...
## $ HR min (%) : num [1:21] 70 73.7 69.7 76.1 77.5 ...
## $ Precipitación [mm] : num [1:21] 0 0 0 0 0 0.2 1.6 0 0 0 ...
## $ H diarias con pp(mm) : num [1:21] 0 3 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 ...
## $ Vel viento max(m/s) : num [1:21] 1.53 1.67 1.78 1.29 1.61 ...
## $ h diarias con vel viento >2m/s: num [1:21] 7 17 11 7 10 4 10 3 8 6 ...
## $ Incidencia : num [1:21] 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 100 100 100 100 100 ...
## $ Severidad 1 : num [1:21] 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 ...
## $ Severidad : num [1:21] 0.594 0.594 0.594 0.594 0.594 ...
## $ Aplicaciones de fungicida : num [1:21] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 ...
# Ajustar el modelo con los datos de entrenamiento
modelo2 <- glm(Severidad ~ ., data = datos_train2)
summary(modelo2)
##
## Call:
## glm(formula = Severidad ~ ., data = datos_train2)
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) -1.908e+01 5.669e+01 -0.337 0.739
## Dia 9.420e-06 2.801e-05 0.336 0.739
## `h diarias t (10-18)°` 1.008e-03 6.031e-04 1.671 0.105
## `t max (°C)` 4.647e-03 1.169e-02 0.397 0.694
## `t min (°C)` -3.346e-03 9.703e-03 -0.345 0.733
## `h con DPV` -1.260e-03 8.784e-04 -1.434 0.161
## `DPV min (kpa)` 3.373e-03 9.040e-02 0.037 0.970
## `HR max (%)` -1.361e-03 3.023e-03 -0.450 0.656
## `h diarias HR >65%` -3.476e-04 4.547e-04 -0.764 0.450
## `HR min (%)` 1.393e-03 1.715e-03 0.812 0.423
## `Precipitación [mm]` -1.395e-04 2.265e-04 -0.616 0.543
## `H diarias con pp(mm)` 1.009e-03 1.032e-03 0.978 0.336
## `Vel viento max(m/s)` -5.857e-04 1.256e-03 -0.467 0.644
## `h diarias con vel viento >2m/s` 5.198e-04 9.310e-04 0.558 0.581
## Incidencia 7.819e-05 5.662e-05 1.381 0.177
## `Severidad 1` 8.014e-02 2.143e-04 373.966 <2e-16 ***
## `Aplicaciones de fungicida` -1.400e-03 3.517e-03 -0.398 0.693
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 5.676701e-05)
##
## Null deviance: 16.7156510 on 47 degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 0.0017598 on 31 degrees of freedom
## AIC: -318.04
##
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2
predicciones2 <- predict(modelo2, newdata = datos_test2, interval="prediction", level= 0.95)
#graf <- cbind(data2, predicciones2)
str(predicciones2)
## Named num [1:21] 0.585 0.584 0.589 0.595 0.593 ...
## - attr(*, "names")= chr [1:21] "1" "2" "3" "4" ...
#ggplot(datos_test, aes(x = data2$`HR max (%)`, y = data2$Severidad)) +
# geom_point(color="blue") +
#geom_line(aes(y = predicciones2), color = "red")
# Crear un gráfico de dispersión con las predicciones y los datos
#plot(data1$`h HR>65%`, data1$Incidencia, col = "blue", main = "Predicciones del modelo vs. Datos reales", xlab = "Temperatura", ylab = "Incidencia")
#points(data1$Incidencia, predicciones, col = "red")
#legend("topright", legend = c("Datos reales", "Predicciones"), col = c("blue", "red"), pch = 1)
# Evaluar el modelo en los datos de prueba
r22 <- summary(modelo2)$r.squared
mse2 <- mean((datos_test2$Severidad - predicciones2)^2)
print(paste0("Coeficiente de determinación R^2: ", r22))
## [1] "Coeficiente de determinación R^2: "
print(paste0("Mean squared error: ", mse2))
## [1] "Mean squared error: 9.68275903973555e-05"