Resultados electorales

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Mapa resultados EG 2021 a nivel distrital

Intensidad del voto (APP)

Intensidad del voto (RN)

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Tabla de resultados (votos válidos)

Tabla con estadísticos descriptivos

   vars    n mean   sd median trimmed  mad min max range skew kurtosis se
X1    1 1583 0.05 0.05   0.04    0.04 0.03   0 0.5  0.49 2.17     6.58  0
   vars    n mean   sd median trimmed mad  min  max range skew kurtosis se
X1    1 1583 0.14 0.11   0.12    0.12 0.1 0.01 0.62  0.61 1.29     1.86  0
   vars    n mean  sd median trimmed  mad min  max range skew kurtosis se
X1    1 1583 0.35 0.2   0.34    0.34 0.26   0 0.88  0.88  0.1    -1.11  0
   vars    n mean   sd median trimmed  mad min max range skew kurtosis se
X1    1 1583 0.04 0.03   0.03    0.03 0.03   0 0.3   0.3 2.26     9.31  0
    vars    n mean   sd median trimmed  mad  min  max range skew kurtosis se
X1     1 1583 0.05 0.05   0.04    0.04 0.03 0.00 0.50  0.49 2.17     6.58  0
X11    1 1583 0.14 0.11   0.12    0.12 0.10 0.01 0.62  0.61 1.29     1.86  0
X12    1 1583 0.35 0.20   0.34    0.34 0.26 0.00 0.88  0.88 0.10    -1.11  0
X13    1 1583 0.04 0.03   0.03    0.03 0.03 0.00 0.30  0.30 2.26     9.31  0

Ausentismo a nivel distrital

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Tabla de resultados (votos válidos)

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Ausentismo y %pobreza extrema

Modelando el voto

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OLS numérica

Índice de Desarrollo Humano
Fuerza Popular Alianza para el Progreso Perú Libre Restauración Nacionalr
(Intercept) 0.030+ -0.007 0.673*** -0.008+
(0.016) (0.008) (0.025) (0.005)
IDH_2019 0.074** 0.057*** -0.438*** 0.059***
(0.025) (0.013) (0.040) (0.007)
PERPOBREZAEXT -0.002*** 0.000* 0.005*** -0.001***
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
POBOCUP2017 0.000 0.000*** 0.000*** 0.000**
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
POBTot2019 0.000 0.000*** 0.000*** 0.000**
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
PorAusen 0.328*** 0.091*** -0.625*** 0.085***
(0.026) (0.014) (0.043) (0.008)
Num.Obs. 1583 1583 1583 1583
R2 0.126 0.048 0.312 0.193
R2 Adj. 0.124 0.045 0.310 0.190
AIC -2797.9 -4770.6 -1236.4 -6658.9
BIC -2760.4 -4733.0 -1198.8 -6621.4
Log.Lik. 1405.963 2392.298 625.198 3336.472
F 45.666 15.970 142.819 75.292
RMSE 0.10 0.05 0.16 0.03
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001 
$`Fuerza Popular`

Call:
lm(formula = modelo1, data = data)

Coefficients:
  (Intercept)       IDH_2019  PERPOBREZAEXT    POBOCUP2017     POBTot2019  
    2.982e-02      7.409e-02     -2.144e-03     -1.404e-06      5.781e-07  
     PorAusen  
    3.275e-01  


$`Alianza para el Progreso`

Call:
lm(formula = modelo2, data = data)

Coefficients:
  (Intercept)       IDH_2019  PERPOBREZAEXT    POBOCUP2017     POBTot2019  
   -7.211e-03      5.652e-02      2.701e-04     -1.995e-06      9.124e-07  
     PorAusen  
    9.142e-02  


$`Perú Libre`

Call:
lm(formula = modelo3, data = data)

Coefficients:
  (Intercept)       IDH_2019  PERPOBREZAEXT    POBOCUP2017     POBTot2019  
    6.731e-01     -4.375e-01      4.654e-03      6.610e-06     -3.288e-06  
     PorAusen  
   -6.254e-01  


$`Restauración Nacionalr`

Call:
lm(formula = modelo4, data = data)

Coefficients:
  (Intercept)       IDH_2019  PERPOBREZAEXT    POBOCUP2017     POBTot2019  
   -7.976e-03      5.885e-02     -5.952e-04     -7.701e-07      3.867e-07  
     PorAusen  
    8.488e-02

OLS categórica

Influencia lengua prioritaria
Alianza para el Progreso Fuerza Popular Perú Libre Restauración Nacional
(Intercept) 0.069*** 0.172*** 0.266*** 0.048***
(0.002) (0.003) (0.005) (0.001)
lenguaprePriorOtras -0.048*** -0.102*** 0.241*** -0.033***
(0.003) (0.005) (0.009) (0.002)
Num.Obs. 1583 1583 1583 1583
R2 0.168 0.201 0.332 0.224
R2 Adj. 0.168 0.201 0.332 0.224
AIC -4992.0 -2947.4 -1292.0 -6729.8
BIC -4975.9 -2931.3 -1275.9 -6713.7
Log.Lik. 2498.988 1476.719 648.993 3367.904
F 319.745 398.159 786.010 456.755
RMSE 0.05 0.10 0.16 0.03
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001 
$`Alianza para el Progreso`

Call:
lm(formula = modelo5, data = data)

Coefficients:
        (Intercept)  lenguaprePriorOtras  
            0.06860             -0.04769  


$`Fuerza Popular`

Call:
lm(formula = modelo6, data = data)

Coefficients:
        (Intercept)  lenguaprePriorOtras  
             0.1718              -0.1015  


$`Perú Libre`

Call:
lm(formula = modelo7, data = data)

Coefficients:
        (Intercept)  lenguaprePriorOtras  
             0.2661               0.2406  


$`Restauración Nacional`

Call:
lm(formula = modelo8, data = data)

Coefficients:
        (Intercept)  lenguaprePriorOtras  
            0.04754             -0.03292

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OLS numérica

OLS Categórica