Healthy Central Valley Together Update
Last compiled on 11/16/2023
Please see below for the latest update on Merced, Stanislaus, and Yolo County wastewater data.
Aggregated trend lines for counties are calculated using the right-aligned 10-day trimmed average for each site. For each date, an individual site trimmed smoothed value for the day is multiplied by the plant’s population, then these are summed and divided by the total population of all selected sites. This calculation results in the trimmed weighted average \(target/PMMoV_{w,t}\) for day t, as in the following equation for the m selected plants: \[\text{trimmed } target/PMMoV_{t} = \frac {\sum_{i=1}^m target/PMMoV_{i,t}}{\sum_{i=1}^m pop_i}\]
| Percent change | |||
| Virus | Merced County | Stanislaus County | Yolo County |
|---|---|---|---|
| SARS-CoV-2 | +21.2% | 23.8% | 16.7% |
| Influenza A | +1014% | +124% | +199% |
| RSV | +229% | +LL | +LL |
| HMPV | ND | +LL | +95.7% |
| Norovirus | 55.2% | +7.4% | +48.6% |
| Percent change is calculated here using average of measurements over the past two weeks comparedto the average of measurements from the prior two weeks. ND appears if there has been no positive sample in the system for the last seven days or if there have not been at least three positive samples in the past 14 days. | |||
| ND- Non-detect (below detection limit) | |||
| +LL increasing but at low levels | |||
| Weeks 104-105: 10/15 - 10/28 | |||
| Weeks 106-107: 10/29 - 11/11 | |||
| Current wastewater level | |||
| Virus | Merced County | Stanislaus County | Yolo County |
|---|---|---|---|
| SARS-CoV-2 | High | Medium | Medium |
| Influenza A | Low | Medium | Low |
| RSV | Low | Low | Low |
| HMPV | Low | Low | Low |
| Norovirus | Low | Low | Medium |
| The current wastewater levels are estimated using the 10-day rolling average (10-d.m.a). The 33rd and 66th percentiles are calculated over the past 365 days before 14 days ago. For counties with less than 365 days, all days before 14 days ago are used. The current wastewater level is classified as: | |||
| - Low: The current 10-dma is below 33rd percentile | |||
| - Medium: The current 10-dma is between the 33rd and 66th percentile | |||
| - High: The current 10-dma is above 66th Percentile | |||
| If there has been no positive sample in the system for the last seven days or if there have not been at least three positive samples in the past 14 days, it is assign a Low categorization. | |||
| Mann-Kendall trend test | |||
| Virus | Merced County | Stanislaus County | Yolo County |
|---|---|---|---|
| SARS-CoV-2 | Very likely upward | Very likely upward | Upward |
| Influenza A | Likely upward | Likely upward | Very likely upward |
| RSV | No Trend | Very likely upward | Very likely upward |
| HMPV | No Trend | Very likely upward | Very likely upward |
| Norovirus | No Trend | Very likely upward | No Trend |
| Week 107: 10/29 - 11/11 | |||
| * The Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test is a nonparametric test that evaluates whether there is a monotonic trend in a time-series dataset. We applied the MK trend test to raw N/PMMoV data and used a 14-day lookback period. We interpreted positive values of the test statistic, tau (τ), with p ≤ 0.005, p ≤ 0.05, and p ≤ 0.01 as upward, likely upward, and very likely upward trends, respectively. We interpreted negative τ values with p ≤ 0.005, p ≤ 0.05, and p ≤ 0.01 as downward, likely downward, and very likely downward trends, respectively. | |||
| If there has been no positive sample in the system for the last seven days or if there have not been at least three positive samples in the past 14 days, it is assigned No Trend. | |||
| Percent change in the last 14 days | |||
| Virus | Merced County | Stanislaus County | Yolo County |
|---|---|---|---|
| SARS-CoV-2 | Very likely upward | Very likely upward | Likely upward |
| Influenza A | Upward | Very likely upward | Very likely upward |
| RSV | No Trend | Very likely upward | Very likely upward |
| HMPV | No Trend | Very likely upward | Very likely upward |
| Norovirus | No Trend | Very likely upward | No Trend |
| Week 107: 10/29 - 11/11 | |||
| * The slope is calculated from a least-squares linear regression of log10-transformed values of the N/PMMoV data versus day. We used a 14-day look-back period to calculate the slope. For each slope estimate, we extracted the 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals (CIs) to calculate the 90%, 95%, and 99% CIs for each PC estimate. We interpreted PC values greater than 0 for the 90%, 95%, and 99% upper CIs as upward, likely upward, and very likely upward trends, respectively. We interpreted PC values less than 0 for the 90%, 95%, and 99% lower CIs as downward, likely downward, and very likely downward trends day and previous n - 1 days. | |||
| If there has been no positive sample in the system for the last seven days or if there have not been at least three positive samples in the past 14 days, it is assigned No Trend. | |||
| The Relative Strength Index | |||
| Virus | Merced County | Stanislaus County | Yolo County |
|---|---|---|---|
| SARS-CoV-2 | Upward | No Trend | No Trend |
| Influenza A | No Trend | Upward | Upward |
| RSV | No Trend | Likely upward | Likely upward |
| HMPV | No Trend | Very likely upward | Very likely upward |
| Norovirus | Downward | Upward | No Trend |
| Week 107: 10/29 - 11/11 | |||
| * The Relative Strength Index (RSI) calculates a ratio of the recent upward price movements to the absolute price movement. Developed by J. Welles Wilder. | |||
| If there has been no positive sample in the system for the last seven days or if there have not been at least three positive samples in the past 14 days, it is assigned No Trend. | |||
| Percent change | ||||||||
| Virus | Merced County | Stanislaus County | Yolo County | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merced | Los Banos | Modesto | Turlock | Davis | Esparto | Winters | Woodland | |
| SARS-CoV-2 | +42% | +1374% | +1.4% | 44.5% | 4.3% | +235% | 20.1% | 12.5% |
| Influenza A | +LL | +LL | +106% | +60.9% | +175% | ND | ND | 31.4% |
| Influenza B | ND | +341% | ND | ND | ND | +LL | ND | ND |
| RSV | +113% | +270% | ND | +LL | +LL | ND | ND | +633% |
| HMPV | ND | ND | ND | +LL | +347% | ND | ND | +14004% |
| Norovirus | 46.8% | +103% | +79.8% | +14.7% | 0.1% | 31.4% | +373% | +3.6% |
| Hepatitis A Virus | ND | ND | ND | +LL | ND | ND | ND | ND |
| Candida auris | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND |
| Human Adenovirus Group F | 15.8% | 92.3% | +66.9% | +123% | 45% | 35.8% | ND | 90.9% |
| Rotavirus | +27.7% | +2150% | 2.4% | +133% | +24.9% | ND | ND | 59.7% |
| Enterovirus D68 | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND |
| Parainfluenza | 4.1% | 19.2% | 35.9% | 27.2% | 14.2% | 29.1% | ND | 31.1% |
| Percent change is calculated here using average of measurements over the past two weeks comparedto the average of measurements from the prior two weeks. ND appears if there has been no positive sample in the system for the last seven days or if there have not been at least three positive samples in the past 14 days. | ||||||||
| ND- Non-detect (below detection limit) | ||||||||
| +LL increasing but at low levels | ||||||||
| Weeks 104-105: 10/15 - 10/28 | ||||||||
| Weeks 106-107: 10/29 - 11/11 | ||||||||
| Current wastewater level | ||||||||
| Virus | Merced County | Stanislaus County | Yolo County | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merced | Los Banos | Modesto | Turlock | Davis | Esparto | Winters | Woodland | |
| SARS-CoV-2 | High | High | Low | Medium | Medium | High | Low | Medium |
| Influenza A | Low | Low | High | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low |
| Influenza B | Low | High | Low | Low | Low | High | Low | Low |
| RSV | Low | Low | Low | Medium | Low | Low | Low | Low |
| HMPV | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Medium |
| Norovirus | Low | Low | Medium | Low | Medium | High | High | Medium |
| Hepatitis A Virus | Low | Low | Low | High | Low | Low | Low | Low |
| Candida auris | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low |
| Human Adenovirus Group F | Medium | Low | High | High | Low | Low | Low | Low |
| Rotavirus | High | High | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Medium |
| Enterovirus D68 | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low |
| Parainfluenza | High | Medium | Low | Medium | High | High | Low | Medium |
| The current wastewater levels are estimated using the 10-day rolling average (10-d.m.a). The 33rd and 66th percentiles are calculated over the past 365 days before 14 days ago. For counties with less than 365 days, all days before 14 days ago are used. The current wastewater level is classified as: | ||||||||
| - Low: The current 10-dma is below 33rd percentile | ||||||||
| - Medium: The current 10-dma is between the 33rd and 66th percentile | ||||||||
| - High: The current 10-dma is above 66th Percentile | ||||||||
| If there has been no positive sample in the system for the last seven days or if there have not been at least three positive samples in the past 14 days, it is assign a Low categorization. | ||||||||
| Mann-Kendall trend test | ||||||||
| Virus | Merced County | Stanislaus County | Yolo County | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merced | Los Banos | Modesto | Turlock | Davis | Esparto | Winters | Woodland | |
| SARS-CoV-2 | No Trend | Very likely upward | No Trend | Likely upward | Likely upward | Very likely upward | No Trend | Likely downward |
| Influenza A | Very likely upward | No Trend | Very likely upward | Upward | Very likely upward | No Trend | No Trend | Likely upward |
| Influenza B | No Trend | Very likely upward | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | Very likely upward | No Trend | No Trend |
| RSV | Very likely upward | Downward | No Trend | Very likely upward | Very likely upward | No Trend | No Trend | Very likely upward |
| HMPV | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | Very likely upward | Very likely upward | No Trend | No Trend | Very likely upward |
| Norovirus | No Trend | No Trend | Very likely upward | Upward | Likely upward | Very likely upward | Very likely upward | No Trend |
| Hepatitis A Virus | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | Very likely upward | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend |
| Candida auris | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend |
| Human Adenovirus Group F | Very likely downward | Very likely downward | Very likely upward | Very likely upward | No Trend | Very likely downward | No Trend | Very likely downward |
| Rotavirus | Very likely upward | Very likely upward | Very likely downward | Very likely upward | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | Likely upward |
| Enterovirus D68 | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend |
| Parainfluenza | No Trend | Very likely downward | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend |
| Week 107: 10/29 - 11/11 | ||||||||
| * The Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test is a nonparametric test that evaluates whether there is a monotonic trend in a time-series dataset. We applied the MK trend test to raw N/PMMoV data and used a 14-day lookback period. We interpreted positive values of the test statistic, tau (τ), with p ≤ 0.005, p ≤ 0.05, and p ≤ 0.01 as upward, likely upward, and very likely upward trends, respectively. We interpreted negative τ values with p ≤ 0.005, p ≤ 0.05, and p ≤ 0.01 as downward, likely downward, and very likely downward trends, respectively. | ||||||||
| If there has been no positive sample in the system for the last seven days or if there have not been at least three positive samples in the past 14 days, it is assigned No Trend. | ||||||||
| Percent change in the last 14 days | ||||||||
| Virus | Merced County | Stanislaus County | Yolo County | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merced | Los Banos | Modesto | Turlock | Davis | Esparto | Winters | Woodland | |
| SARS-CoV-2 | No Trend | Very likely upward | No Trend | Very likely upward | Upward | Very likely upward | No Trend | Very likely downward |
| Influenza A | Very likely upward | No Trend | Very likely upward | No Trend | Likely upward | No Trend | No Trend | Very likely upward |
| Influenza B | No Trend | Upward | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | Very likely upward | No Trend | No Trend |
| RSV | Likely upward | No Trend | No Trend | Very likely upward | Very likely upward | No Trend | No Trend | Very likely upward |
| HMPV | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | Very likely upward | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | Very likely upward |
| Norovirus | No Trend | No Trend | Very likely upward | Likely upward | Likely upward | Very likely upward | Very likely upward | Upward |
| Hepatitis A Virus | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | Very likely upward | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend |
| Candida auris | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend |
| Human Adenovirus Group F | Likely downward | Very likely downward | Very likely upward | Very likely upward | No Trend | Very likely downward | No Trend | Very likely downward |
| Rotavirus | Very likely upward | Very likely upward | Very likely downward | Very likely upward | Likely downward | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend |
| Enterovirus D68 | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend |
| Parainfluenza | No Trend | Very likely downward | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | Upward | No Trend | No Trend |
| Week 107: 10/29 - 11/11 | ||||||||
| * The slope is calculated from a least-squares linear regression of log10-transformed values of the N/PMMoV data versus day. We used a 14-day look-back period to calculate the slope. For each slope estimate, we extracted the 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals (CIs) to calculate the 90%, 95%, and 99% CIs for each PC estimate. We interpreted PC values greater than 0 for the 90%, 95%, and 99% upper CIs as upward, likely upward, and very likely upward trends, respectively. We interpreted PC values less than 0 for the 90%, 95%, and 99% lower CIs as downward, likely downward, and very likely downward trends day and previous n - 1 days. | ||||||||
| If there has been no positive sample in the system for the last seven days or if there have not been at least three positive samples in the past 14 days, it is assigned No Trend. | ||||||||
| The Relative Strength Index | ||||||||
| Virus | Merced County | Stanislaus County | Yolo County | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merced | Los Banos | Modesto | Turlock | Davis | Esparto | Winters | Woodland | |
| SARS-CoV-2 | No Trend | Likely upward | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | Likely upward | No Trend | No Trend |
| Influenza A | No Trend | No Trend | Upward | Likely upward | Upward | No Trend | No Trend | Upward |
| Influenza B | No Trend | Upward | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | Very likely upward | No Trend | No Trend |
| RSV | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | Very likely upward | Upward | No Trend | No Trend | Likely upward |
| HMPV | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | Very likely upward | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | Very likely upward |
| Norovirus | No Trend | No Trend | Upward | No Trend | Upward | Upward | Likely upward | Upward |
| Hepatitis A Virus | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend |
| Candida auris | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend |
| Human Adenovirus Group F | No Trend | No Trend | Upward | Upward | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | Downward |
| Rotavirus | Upward | Very likely upward | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend |
| Enterovirus D68 | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend |
| Parainfluenza | Upward | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | Upward | No Trend | No Trend | Upward |
| Week 107: 10/29 - 11/11 | ||||||||
| * The Relative Strength Index (RSI) calculates a ratio of the recent upward price movements to the absolute price movement. Developed by J. Welles Wilder. | ||||||||
| If there has been no positive sample in the system for the last seven days or if there have not been at least three positive samples in the past 14 days, it is assigned No Trend. | ||||||||
Merced’s average SARS-CoV-2 concentrations (N/PMMoV) increased ⬆️ by 42% between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Los Banos’s average increased ⬆️ by 1374%.
Merced’s average Influenza A concentrations (Flu A/PMMoV) +LL between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Los Banos’ average +LL.
Merced’s average Influenza B concentrations (Flu B/PMMoV) showed no detection between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Los Banos’ average increased ⬆️ by 341%.
Merced’s average RSV concentrations (RSV/PMMoV) increased ⬆️ by 113% between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Los Banos’ average increased ⬆️ by 270%.
Merced’s HMPV concentrations (HMPV/PMMoV) showed no detection between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Los Banos’s average showed no detection.
Merced’s average Norovirus concentrations (Norovirus/PMMoV) decreased ⬇️ by 46.8% between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Los Banos’ average increased ⬆️ by 103%.
Merced’s average Hepatitis A Virus concentrations (HAV/PMMoV) showed no detection between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Los Banos’ average showed no detection.
Merced’s average Human Adenovirus Group F concentrations (HAdV_F/PMMoV) decreased ⬇️ by 15.8% between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Los Banos’ average decreased ⬇️ by 92.3%.
Merced’s average Rotavirus concentrations (Rotavirus/PMMoV) increased ⬆️ by 27.7% between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Los Banos’ average increased ⬆️ by 2150%.
Merced’s average Enterovirus D68 concentrations (EV_D68/PMMoV) showed no detection between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Los Banos’ average showed no detection.
Merced’s average Candida auris concentrations (C_auris/PMMoV) showed no detection between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Los Banos’ average showed no detection.
Merced’s average Parainfluenza concentrations (HPIV/PMMoV) remained the same 🔄 between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Los Banos’ average decreased ⬇️ by 19.2%.
Modesto’s average SARS-CoV-2 concentrations (N/PMMoV) remained the same 🔄 between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Turlock’s average decreased ⬇️ by 44.5%.
Modesto’s average Influenza A concentrations (Flu A/PMMoV) increased ⬆️ by 106% between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Turlock’s average increased ⬆️ by 60.9%.
Modesto’s average Influenza B concentrations (Flu B/PMMoV) showed no detection between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Turlock’s average showed no detection.
Modesto’s average RSV concentrations (RSV/PMMoV) showed no detection between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Turlock’s average +LL.
Modesto’s average HMPV concentrations (HMPV/PMMoV) showed no detection between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Turlock’s average +LL.
Modesto’s average Norovirus concentrations (Norovirus/PMMoV) increased ⬆️ by 79.8% between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Turlock’s average increased ⬆️ by 14.7%.
Modesto’s average Hepatitis A Virus concentrations (HAV/PMMoV) showed no detection between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Turlock’s average +LL.
Modesto’s average Human Adenovirus Group F concentrations (HAdV_F/PMMoV) increased ⬆️ by 66.9% between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Turlock’s average increased ⬆️ by 123%.
Modesto’s average Rotavirus concentrations (Rotavirus/PMMoV) remained the same 🔄 between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Turlock’s average increased ⬆️ by 133%.
Modesto’s average Enterovirus D68 concentrations (EV_D68/PMMoV) showed no detection between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Turlock’s average showed no detection.
Modesto’s average Candida auris concentrations (C_auris/PMMoV) showed no detection between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Turlock’s average showed no detection.
Modesto’s average Parainfluenza concentrations (HPIV/PMMoV) decreased ⬇️ by 35.9% between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Turlock’s average decreased ⬇️ by 27.2%.
Davis’ average SARS-CoV-2 concentrations (N/PMMoV) remained the same 🔄 between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Esparto’s average increased ⬆️ by 235%. Winters’ average decreased ⬇️ by 20.1%. Woodland’s average decreased ⬇️ by 12.5%.
Davis’ average Influenza A concentrations (Flu A/PMMoV) increased ⬆️ by 175% between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Esparto’s average showed no detection. Winters’ average showed no detection. Woodland’s average decreased ⬇️ by 31.4%.
Davis’ average Influenza B concentrations (Flu B/PMMoV) showed no detection between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Esparto’s average +LL. Winters’ average showed no detection. Woodland’s average showed no detection.
Davis’ average RSV concentrations (RSV/PMMoV) +LL between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Esparto’s average showed no detection. Winters’ average showed no detection. Woodland’s average increased ⬆️ by 633%.
Davis’ HMPV concentrations (HMPV/PMMoV) increased ⬆️ by 347% between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Esparto’s average showed no detection. Winters’ average showed no detection. Woodland’s average increased ⬆️ by 14004%.
Davis’ Norovirus concentrations (Norovirus/PMMoV) remained the same 🔄 between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Esparto’s average decreased ⬇️ by 31.4%. Winters’ average increased ⬆️ by 373%. Woodland’s average remained the same 🔄.
Davis’ Hepatitis A Virus concentrations (HAV/PMMoV) showed no detection between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Esparto’s average showed no detection. Winters’ average showed no detection. Woodland’s average showed no detection.
Davis’ Human Adenovirus Group F concentrations (HAdV/PMMoV) decreased ⬇️ by 45% between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Esparto’s average decreased ⬇️ by 35.8%. Winters’ average showed no detection. Woodland’s average decreased ⬇️ by 90.9%.
Davis’ Rotavirus concentrations (Rotavirus/PMMoV) increased ⬆️ by 24.9% between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Esparto’s average showed no detection. Winters’ average showed no detection. Woodland’s average decreased ⬇️ by 59.7%.
Davis’ Enterovirus D68 concentrations (EV_D68/PMMoV) showed no detection between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Esparto’s average showed no detection. Winters’ average showed no detection. Woodland’s average showed no detection.
Davis’ Candida auris concentrations (C_auris/PMMoV) showed no detection between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Esparto’s average showed no detection. Winters’ average showed no detection. Woodland’s average showed no detection.
Davis’ Parainfluenza concentrations (HPIV/PMMoV) decreased ⬇️ by 14.2% between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Esparto’s average decreased ⬇️ by 29.1%. Winters’ average showed no detection. Woodland’s average decreased ⬇️ by 31.1%.
There are no detections for samples taken at our plants from the last two weeks. https://healthycvtogether.org/monkeypox-data/