Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update

Author

DevLab@Penn

Published

November 14, 2023

Introduction

We have updated data and forecasts for DR Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Mozambique, Rwanda, Mauritania, Niger, Tunisia, Ecuador, and Paraguay. We are forecasting major events for Tunisia, Ecuador, and Paraguay.

In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.

We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.

MLP Website: here

PW Protected Page: here (email mlpeace-devlab@sas.upenn.edu for access)

Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here

Current country coverage

DR Congo

For DR Congo, our data includes coverage through the end of September 2023. Since the data was last updated through June, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Civic Activism in August: NGOs were involved in various activities, including the promotion of laws for the protection of the rights of people with disabilities, denouncing armed groups like M23 in the North Kivu region, and raising awareness about repression of opposition groups ahead of elections.
  • State of Emergency in August: A round table discussion including MPs and political actors from the majority and opposition was held in Kinshasa, focusing on the state of emergency in the provinces of Ituri and North Kivu. Participants favored lifting the state of emergency in these regions.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Ethiopia

For Ethiopia, our data includes coverage through the end of September 2023. Since the data was last updated through June, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • State of Emergency in August: Amhara state government imposed state of emergency measures. These measures were a response to heightened security concerns and political unrest in the region.

Forecasting

Due to the low volume of articles from local sources, we do not publish forecasts for Ethiopia.

Ghana

For Ghana, our data includes coverage through the end of September 2023. Since the data was last updated through June, we did not see reporting on any major events.

  • Legal Action in July: The High Court of Ghana’s jurisdiction was challenged by the Bank of Ghana, leading to a challenge that was heard at the Supreme Court. A report presented to the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) referred several government institutions to the Attorney General’s office for procurement breaches.
  • Legal Changes in July: Parliament held extensive debate and entertained amendments to the Anti-LGBTQ+ Bill. There were also amendments proposed to the Whistleblower Act focusing on enhancing protections for whistleblowers and ensuring timely payments of rewards.
  • Political Threats in August: The NPP’s disciplinary committee summoned key figures over misconduct and violations of election regulations. The Ministry of Education threatened to freeze salaries of CETAG (Colleges of Education Teachers Association of Ghana) members.
  • Arrests in September: Arrests were made in connection with demonstrators wearing Wagner symbols and partaking in pro-Russian activities. Additionally, a National Democratic Congress (NDC) Constituency Youth Organizer was arrested for allegedly facilitating the registration of minors for voter’s ID cards during an ongoing registration exercise.
  • Protests in September: There were a series of protests under the banner of #OccupyJulorbiHouse. The protests were organized to express displeasure with the government’s handling of the economy and corruption. The protest organizers were arrested but later released. There we also planned protests by the Fixing the Country Movement in response to perceived inaction over the Airbus corruption scandal involving former President Mahama.
  • Election Irregularities in September: Five political parties, including the National Democratic Congress (NDC), filed an injunction against the Electoral Commission’s decision to restrict voter registration to district offices.
  • Lethal Violence in September: Nine people were killed and multiple were injured in an ambush by unknown assailants in Northern Ghana near the border with Burkina Faso.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country. In our last report, our shock models predicted a shock to Non-Lethal Violence in Q4 2023. Our updated models are no longer predicting a shock to Non-Lethal Violence in Q4. However, we did observe a shock to Lethal Violence at the end of Q3.

Mozambique

For Mozambique, our data includes coverage through the end of August 2023. Since the data was last updated through June, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Election Activity in July: Mozambique began preparations for local elections in October.
  • Censorship in August: The Mozambique Police Command banned officers from posting certain types of content on social media, including fake news, police events, uniforms, weapons, and interactions with strangers. Police also prohibited the Medical Association of Mozambique (AMM) from holding a public health fair.
  • Legal Changes in August: A new constitution was implemented, removing direct elections for administrators, city mayors, and provincial governors, with elections instead based on a party list system.
  • Protests in August: Over 100 doctors marched peacefully in Beira city to support an ongoing strike. The Democratic Revolution (RD) party, along with other small parties, protested their exclusion from elections due to missing the deadline for delivering nomination papers.
  • Irregular Transition in September: Multiple public figures expressed concern about the potential for a military coup in Mozambique, due to growing security concerns over the country’s insurgency.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Rwanda

For Rwanda, our data includes coverage through the end of August 2023. Since the data was last updated through June, we did not see reporting on any major events.

  • Purge/Replace in June and August: In June, President Kagame dismissed two generals and 14 other officers from the Rwanda Defense Force (RDF). President Kagame also announced significant changes in the Rwanda Police to strengthen security and ensure effective governance. In August, several high-ranking local officials, including district mayors and security service leaders, were dismissed for reasons ranging from misconduct to failure to fulfill duties.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

In our last update, our shock models predicted a spike in Purge/Replace in Q3 and Q4 2023. Consistent with this prediction, we saw a small spike in reporting on purges in June and August.

Mauritania

For Mauritania, our data includes coverage through the end of September 2023. Since the data was last updated through June, we did not see reporting on any major events.

Forecasting

Due to the low volume of articles from local sources, we do not publish forecasts for Mauritania.

Niger

For Niger, our data includes coverage through the end of September 2023. Since the data was last updated through June, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Irregular Transition in July: There was a military coup on July 26. President Issoufou was put under arrest and General Tchiani took control of government prompting widespread international condemnations.
  • Protests in September: Civil society groups mobilized to protest any delays in the French army’s withdraw from the country.

Forecasting

Due to the low volume of articles from local sources, we do not publish forecasts for Niger.

Tunisia

For Tunisia, our data includes coverage through the end of September 2023. Since the data was last updated through June, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Natural Disaster in July: Forest fires swept through several regions of the country.

Forecasting

Our shock models are predicting a spike in reporting on Protests in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024.

Ecuador

Ecuador’s results are password protected. Please email for access.

Paraguay

Paraguay’s results are password protected. Please email for access.