Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update

Author

DevLab@Penn

Published

November 6, 2023

Introduction

We have updated data and forecasts for Benin, Cameroon, Zimbabwe, Tanzania, Uganda, Armenia, Jamaica, and Morocco. We are forecasting major events for Jamaica.

In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.

We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.

MLP Website: here

PW Protected Page: here (email mlpeace-devlab@sas.upenn.edu for access)

Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here

Current country coverage

Morocco

For Morocco, our data includes coverage through the end of August 2023. Since the data was last updated through June, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Disaster in September: Morocco was hit with a massive earthquake, killing thousands and displacing more than half a million people.
  • Civic Activism in September: Domestic and international civil society groups joined relief efforts in response to the earthquake.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

In our last two reports, our shock models predicted shocks to Civic Activism in Q3 and Q4. We observed a large shock to Civic Activism in Q3 in response to a massive earthquake.

Benin

For Benin, our data includes coverage through the end of August 2023. Since the data was last updated through June, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Defamation Case in June and July: Three individuals charged with the defamation of a police commissioner were put on trial in a civil case.
  • Cooperation in August and September: Benin cooperated with ECOWAS on a response to the coup in Niger. The President of Benin also held talks with the President of China and agreed to strengthen ties.
  • Troop Mobilization in August and September: In response to the coup in Niger, Benin closed their boder with the country and discussed plans to mobilize troops in case of an ECOWAS military response.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Cameroon

For Cameroon, our data includes coverage through the end of August 2023. Since the data was last updated through June, we did not see reporting on any major events.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Tanzania

For Tanzania, our data includes coverage through the end of August 2023. Since the data was last updated through June, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Non-lethal Violence in August: Three journalists and their translator were injured when over 200 Maasai youth attacked them in Arusha.
  • Arrests in August: A citizen was arrested on accusations of insulting government officials through the Tiktok social network. An MP surrendered himself to Arusha Central Police Station after accusations that he had a role in an attack on journalists.
  • Purge/Replace in August: President Samia Suluhu Hassan announced a diplomatic and cabinet reshuffle, as well as the removal of high-level local government officials in Mtwara District.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Uganda

For Uganda, our data includes coverage through the end of August 2023. Since the data was last updated through June, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Censorship in July: The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) announced a countrywide boycott of the coverage of all government activities following a government ban on state advertising in private media houses.
  • Election Irregularities in July: In MP by-elections, armed men stormed a polling station in Oyam district to stuff ballots after holding the presiding officer at gunpoint.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Zimbabwe

For Zimbabwe, our data includes coverage through the end of August 2023. Since the data was last updated through June, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Non-lethal Violence in July: Multiple instances of political violence occurred, including an assault on a village chief, an attack on a prominent lawyer, and electoral violence against a candidate in an upcoming local election.
  • Election Activity and Irregularities in August: General elections were held on August 23 and 24. Multiple irregularities were reported, including the main opposition candidate, CCC leader Mr Nelson Chamisa, claiming victory while voting was underway in defiance of the country’s electoral laws.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Armenia

For Armenia, our data includes coverage through the end of August 2023. Since the data was last updated through June, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Election Activity in August: There was widespread reporting on the political and logistical preparations for the upcoming Yerevan City Council elections in September.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Jamaica

For Jamaica, our data includes coverage through the end of August 2023. Since the data was last updated through April, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Raids in June: Police raided the controversial Bayith Yahweh church complex in Montego Bay on suspicion of child abuse.
  • Non-lethal Violence in June: Various acts of violence occurred, including the burning of a People’s National Party (PNP) constituency office and the murder of a prominent business person.
  • Irregular Transition in July: A Deputy Mayor was ousted after members of his party joined members of the ruling party in a vote to remove him from office.
  • Defamation Cases in August: The General Secretary of the People’s National Party (PNP) was sued for defamation by both the Minister of Science and a former legislator.

Forecasting

Our shock models are predicting a shock to Legal Changes in Q1 2024.