Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update
Introduction
We have updated data and forecasts for Indonesia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Uzbekistan, and Kosovo.
In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.
We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.
MLP Website: here
PW Protected Page: here (email mlpeace-devlab@sas.upenn.edu for access)
Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here
Indonesia
For Indonesia, our data includes coverage through the end of August 2023. Since the data was last updated through May, we saw increases in reporting on:
- Civic Activism in June: Activists associated with the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI) mobilized to address issues related to corruption and support political candidates in local elections. Approximately 4,000 volunteers took part in an event organized by the Indonesian Red Cross (PMI) in Kenang.
- Raids in August: Investigators of the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) searched the Office of the National Search and Help Agency. The Indonesian Military raided police headquarters in Medan, raising concerns about fresh tension between the two institutions. Antiterror Police raided the home of alleged terrorists.
Forecasting
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Malaysia
For Malaysia, our data includes coverage through the end of August 2023. Since the data was last updated through May, we saw increases in reporting on:
- Political threats in June and August: In June, communications and Digital Minister Fahmi Fadzil issued a warning against provocative statements on social media related to racial, religious, and royalty sensitivities during the upcoming state polls. He warned that legal action would be taken against those who do so, regardless of their political affiliation. In August, lawyer Nik Elin Zurina received death threats. Also, the Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission (MCMC) issued a warning about posting or sharing content that insults the royal institution on social media or messaging apps.
- Arrests in July: Police arrested seven individuals and dismantled a syndicate impersonating senior government officers. A former senior officer from the Youth and Sports Ministry was arrested and sentenced to 15 years in prison for corruption. A total of 496 police officers were arrested for corruption.
- Defamation case in August: Multiple investigations were opened into slander and defamation against political parties and candidates during state elections.
Forecasting
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Sri Lanka
For Sri Lanka, our data includes coverage through the end of August 2023. Since the data was last updated through May, we did not seereporting on any major events.
Forecasting
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
In our last update, our shock models predicted a spike in Arrests in Q3 2023. We have not seen a spike in Arrests in the first two months of Q3.
Uzbekistan
For Uzbekistan, our data includes coverage through the end of August 2023. Since the data was last updated through May, we saw increases in reporting on:
- Legal Actions in July: A large number of government and political officials were accused of various corruption related offenses. The government continued interrogations and searches of Karakalpak activists in relation to mass protests in 2022.
- Purge/Replace in July and August: The President of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoev, dismissed a number of district internal affairs chiefs and prosecutors for their poor performance in crime containment during an extended board meeting of the Ministry of Internal Affairs.
Forecasting
In our last update, our shock models predicted a shock to Legal Actions in Q4 2023. We saw a shock a few months early in July.
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Kosovo
For Kosovo, our data includes coverage through the end of August 2023. Since the data was last updated through May, we saw increases in reporting on:
- Arrests and Legal Actions in June: Police in northern Mitrovica arrested of one of the leaders of the civil protection group. Interior Minister Xhelal Svechla announced the arrest of Milun Milenkovic-Lun, the alleged mastermind behind attacks on KFOR and Kosovo Police forces in Zvecan on May 29th. Three Kosovo Police officers were reportedly kidnapped on Kosovo’s territory.
- Censorship in July: The government suspended the license of the television channel “Klan Kosova.” This decision was condemned by media organizations and the opposition.
- Legal Changes in July: Legal changes regarding the Prosecutorial Council were proposed by the government. The opposition raised concerns about democracy and the selection criteria for council composition. The Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK) took the issue of minimal wage laws to the Constitutional Court, seeking an assessment of their constitutionality. There were discussions on limiting space for journalists within the Kosovo Assembly’s plenary chamber, which sparked concern among media groups.
- Cooperation in July: There were multiple initiatives to de-escalate tensions in the northern part of Kosovo, involving diplomatic efforts and cooperation with international partners.
- Purge/Replace in August: Prime Minister Rama dismissed several ministers, suggesting major changes within the government. Serbian police officers resigned in northern Kosovo.
Forecasting
In our last update, our shock models predicted a shock to Legal Actions in Q4 2023. We saw a shock a few months early in July.
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.