The Politics of Authoritarianism:

.title[
# The Politics of Authoritarianism:
]
.subtitle[
## A Short Introduction
]
.author[
### Semuhi Sinanoglu
]
.institute[
### University of Toronto
]
.date[
### 2023-10-12
]

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# Outline

1. How do we distinguish autocracies from democracies?

2. Is authoritarianism on the rise globally?

3. How do dictatorships emerge?

4. Why do autocrats hold elections?

5. How do autocrats stay in power?

---

.pull-left[
# 1. How do we distinguish autocracies from democracies? 
]
.pull-right[
<img src="https://github.com/semuhi/autocracy-intro/blob/main/inclasspoll.png?raw=true" width="100%" height="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto 0 auto auto;" />
]

---
.pull-left[
# 1. How do we distinguish autocracies from democracies? 
]

.pull-right[
<iframe src="https://forms.office.com/Pages/AnalysisPage.aspx?AnalyzerToken=rgvPi9Jo99X09vuFC3YDatq5ozrEy3bL&id=JsKqeAMvTUuQN7RtVsVSELdEF7zEw15Mq1amuQSe0qZUNDhMSVZKRjI3VTlVVFlONU9NMTdKWjlXOC4u" width="800" height="600" float:right style="display: block; margin: auto;"></iframe>
]

---

# 2. Is authoritarianism on the rise globally?

## Alarmist accounts

--
.pull-left[

- **VDEM Report**: The level of democracy in 2022 is down to 1986 levels. More than 35 years of global advances in democracy have been wiped out in the last decade.
- **Freedom House Report**: 8 in 10 people live in a Partly Free or Not Free country.
]

.pull-right[
<img src="https://github.com/semuhi/autocracy-intro/blob/main/freedomhouse2.png?raw=true" width="100%" height="200px" style="display: block; margin: auto 0 auto auto;" />
]
--
<img src="https://github.com/semuhi/autocracy-intro/blob/main/vdem1.png?raw=true" width="80%" height="280px" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

---

# 2. Is authoritarianism on the rise globally?

## Skepticals

.pull-left[
**Treisman(2023)**: The global proportion of democracies remains close to an all-time high.
]
.pull-right[
<img src="https://github.com/semuhi/autocracy-intro/blob/main/treisman.png?raw=true" width="100%" height="400px" style="display: block; margin: auto 0 auto auto;" />
]
--
**Levitsky and Way (2023)**: Elections are still competitive. The rate of electoral turnover is high.
--
<br>
<br>
**Little and Meng (2022)**: Expert bias.

---

# 2. Is authoritarianism on the rise globally?

## My take

.pull-left[
- **Incumbent abuse and democratic transgressions**: The simultaneity of Brexit, Le Pen, Trump, Duterto, Erdogan, Orban cannot be a coincidence.
]
.pull-right[
<img src="https://github.com/semuhi/autocracy-intro/blob/main/populists.png?raw=true" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto 0 auto auto;" />
]
--

- **Pandemic of coups**: Mali, Tunisia, Guinea, Sudan, Burkina Faso, the Gambia.

- **Shifting international environment**

---

---
# 3. How do dictatorships emerge?

## Coups

.pull-left[
1973: **Chile**
]
.pull-right[
<img src="https://github.com/semuhi/autocracy-intro/blob/main/coup.jpg?raw=true" width="100%" height="200px" style="display: block; margin: auto 0 auto auto;" />
]

--
.pull-left[
1989: **Sudan**
]
.pull-right[
<img src="https://github.com/semuhi/autocracy-intro/blob/main/bashir.jpg?raw=true" width="100%" height="200px" style="display: block; margin: auto 0 auto auto;" />
]

---

# 3. How do dictatorships emerge?

## Armed insurgencies

.pull-left[
1979: **Sandinistas, Nicaragua**
]
.pull-right[
<img src="https://github.com/semuhi/autocracy-intro/blob/main/sandinistas.jpg?raw=true" width="100%" height="200px" style="display: block; margin: auto 0 auto auto;" />
]

## Foreign-imposed regimes

.pull-left[
1968: **Prague Spring**
]
.pull-right[
<img src="https://github.com/semuhi/autocracy-intro/blob/main/prague.jpg?raw=true" width="100%" height="200px" style="display: block; margin: auto 0 auto auto;" />
]

---

# 3. How do dictatorships emerge?

## Autogolpes

.pull-left[
2021: **Tunisia**
]
.pull-right[
<img src="https://github.com/semuhi/autocracy-intro/blob/main/tunus.jpg?raw=true" width="100%" height="200px" style="display: block; margin: auto 0 auto auto;" />
]

## Democratic Erosion
.pull-left[
Chávez, Orban, Erdogan...
]
.pull-right[
<img src="https://github.com/semuhi/autocracy-intro/blob/main/orban.jpg?raw=true" width="100%" height="200px" style="display: block; margin: auto 0 auto auto;" />
]

---

# 4. Why do autocrats hold elections?

## Closed autocracy ##

Around 30+ closed autocracies in the last decade.

Either no elections, or completely sham: Syria, North Korea, Turkmenistan...

Appx. 20 of them had at least one election: Elections as a subjugating performance.

---

# 4. Why do autocrats hold elections?

## Electoral autocracy ##

Electoral turnover is still not possible, but there is certain degree of political competition: Egypt, Russia...

---

# 4. Why do autocrats hold elections?

## Competitive autocracies ##

There is high level competition, and electoral turnover is actually possible. But the **playing field** is uneven: Hungary, Turkey, Serbia, Malaysia...

The president won the election with razor-thin margin, BUT:

- the political suppression of the Kurdish political party
- restricted access to media
- packed judiciary 
]

.pull-right[
<img src="https://github.com/semuhi/autocracy-intro/blob/main/lucan.jpg?raw=true" width="50%" height="300px" style="display: block; margin: auto 0 auto auto;" />
]
---

# 4. Why do autocrats hold elections?

## The role of elections ##

- Securing **international legitimacy**

- Helping the regime with the distribution of spoils and rents, managing uncertainty, expanding time horizon for the elite for their **institutional cooptation**

- Sorting out the regime's **informational dilemma**

- Serving as **propaganda**

---

preference falsification

normative support

---
# 5. How do autocrats stay in power?

Being an autocrat is a risky business: He must **coup-proof** the regime against insiders,
--
contain mass mobilizations,
--
protect against foreign interventions.

## The degree of institutionalization ##

**single-party regimes** (PRI, Mexico) vs. **personalist regimes** (Idi Amin's Uganda)

---
# 5. How do autocrats stay in power?

## Preventive, targeted, and low-scale repression

--
.pull-left[
<img src="https://github.com/semuhi/autocracy-intro/blob/main/got.jpg?raw=true" width="100%" height="220px" style="display: block; margin: auto auto auto 0;" />
]

It requires informational and repressive state capacity.
]

## The legitimization of repression

**Framings**: terrorism, violent agitators, foreign intervention

Autocrats broadcast repression as **hard propaganda** to bolster mass support.

---

<img src="https://github.com/semuhi/autocracy-intro/blob/main/boru.jpg?raw=true" width="50%" height="220px" style="display: block; margin: auto 0 auto auto;" />
---

semuhi.sinanoglu@mail.utoronto.ca