Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update

Author

DevLab@Penn

Published

October 8, 2023

Introduction

We have updated data and forecasts for Bangladesh, Cambodia, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Macedonia, Serbia. We are forecasting significant events for Bangladesh, Belarus, Cambodia, and Serbia.

In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.

We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.

MLP Website: here

PW Protected Page: here (email mlpeace-devlab@sas.upenn.edu for access)

Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here

Current country coverage

Bangladesh

For Bangladesh, our data includes coverage through the end of August 2023. Since the data was last updated through May, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Election Activity in June: Bangladesh held city council and mayoral elections in June. These elections were regarded as a preview of the national elections scheduled for January 2024.
  • Election Irregularities in June: The main opposition party contested city couuncil and mayoral elections in June, but vowed to boycot national elections for the following year unless electoral institutions were reformed.
  • Protests in July: The main opposition party held massive protests to demand the resignation of the Prime Minister.
  • Cooperation in July: Domestic and international bodies called for dialogue between the opposition and the government to end protests.
  • Legal Action in August: The exiled chairman of the main opposition party was sentenced to nine years in prison on corruption charges.
  • Disaster in August: Deadly floods occurred in several parts of the country.

Forecasting

Our standard models are predicting an increase in Non-lethal Violence in Q1 2024.

See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Cambodia

For Cambodia, our data includes coverage through the end of August 2023. Since the data was last updated through May, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Legal Changes in June: The National Assembly passed an amendment to the country’s election law that restricted eligibility for candidacy in future elections.
  • Troop Mobilization in June: Prime Minister Hun Sen ordered increased military presence at the border with Vietnam following alleged incursions by drones.
  • Arrests in July: A member of the Club of Cambodian Journalists (CCJ) was arrested for posing as an employee of a local media organisation. A local reporter in Kampong Speu was arrested for insulting the King.
  • Election Activity in July: General elections for the National Assembly were held on July 23. The elections resulted in the ruling Cambodian People’s Party winning 120 out of 125 National Assembly seats.
  • Purge/Replace in July: Shortly after his party’s landslide victory in national elections, Prime Minister Hun Sen announced his intention to step down and hand power to his son.

Forecasting

In our last report, our standard models predicted a spike in reporting on Protests in Q4. Our updated models are no longer predicting elevated levels of Protest in Q4.

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Belarus

For Belarus, our data includes coverage through the end of August 2023. Since the data was last updated through May, we did not see reporting on any major events.

Forecasting

In our last report, our standard models predicted a spike in reporting on Arrests and Protests in Q4. Our updated models are no longer predicting elevated levels of Arrests in Q4. Our updated models are still predicting elevated levels of Protests, although we are now expecting this increase in Q1 2024.

Our standard models are also predicting a spike in the Civic Space Index in Q1 2024.

Finally, our shock models are also predicting a spike in Non-Lethal Violence in Q4 2023.

Georgia

For Georgia, our data includes coverage through the end of August 2023. Since the data was last updated through May, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Purge/Replace in July: The Georgian Ambassador to Ukraine, Giorgi Zakarashvili, was given a 48 hour notice to leave Kyiv by President Volodymyr Zelensky.
  • Disaster in August: Early in the month a large landslide occurred in Shov. The landslide resulted in hundreds of evacuations and 31 deaths.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Kazakhstan

For Kazakhstan, our data includes coverage through the end of August 2023. Since the data was last updated through June, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Defamation Cases in August: A blogger was convicted of defamation against a domestic company and an activist was charged with defamation against a local official.
  • Non-Lethal Violence in August: Diane Saparkiza, a journalist, was attacked in the Karagandin province. The attack prompted questions about the right to freedom of press in Kazakhstan.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

North Macedonia

For North Macedonia, our data includes coverage through the end of August 2023. Since the data was last updated through May, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Lethal Violence in June: A Macedonian citizen was assassinated in Kosovo under suspicious circumstances.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Serbia

For Serbia, our data includes coverage through the end of August 2023. Since the data was last updated through May, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Arrests in June: A Serbian individual was arrested in Kosovo, increasing tensions between the two countries.
  • Purge/Replace in June: The opposition called on the Prime Minister and the Internal Affairs Minister to resign after two mass shootings.
  • Protests in June: Mass protests took place in response to two mass shootings in the country.
  • Activism in July: A Russian anti-war activists with a residence in Belgrade was blocked from entering the country.

Forecasting

Our shock models are predicting an increase in reporting on Corruption in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 and an increase in Purge/Replace in Q4 2023.