Objective

Question 1: We observed that wind for OFRH1 (East Station), yielded the best performance (“SCBH1.SOLR_Daym0|OFRH1.SKNT_Daym1”), daily average error of 1636 (W/m^2). The training data was 2012 and 2013, to forecast 2014. Here we conduct the very same analysis for 2011,2012 training and target 2013.

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#Defines how to discretize each weather variable
model[["discretize"]] <- list()
#Precipitation
model[["discretize"]][["PREC"]][["method"]] <- "binning"
model[["discretize"]][["PREC"]][["ncentroids"]] <- 5
#Solar
model[["discretize"]][["SOLR"]][["method"]] <- "kmeans"
model[["discretize"]][["SOLR"]][["ncentroids"]] <- 5
#Humidity
model[["discretize"]][["RELH"]][["method"]] <- "kmeans"
model[["discretize"]][["RELH"]][["ncentroids"]] <- 5
#Dew Point
model[["discretize"]][["DWPF"]][["method"]] <- "kmeans"
model[["discretize"]][["DWPF"]][["ncentroids"]] <- 5
#Wind Speed
model[["discretize"]][["SKNT"]][["method"]] <- "kmeans"
model[["discretize"]][["SKNT"]][["ncentroids"]] <- 5
#Temperature
model[["discretize"]][["TMPF"]][["method"]] <- "kmeans"
model[["discretize"]][["TMPF"]][["ncentroids"]] <- 5

We define the following formulas to answer this question:

formulas <- c(
                "SCBH1.SOLR_Daym0|SCBH1.SOLR_Daym1",
                "SCBH1.SOLR_Daym0|SCBH1.PREC_Daym1",
                "SCBH1.SOLR_Daym0|SCBH1.RELH_Daym1",
                "SCBH1.SOLR_Daym0|SCBH1.DWPF_Daym1",
                "SCBH1.SOLR_Daym0|SCBH1.SKNT_Daym1",
                "SCBH1.SOLR_Daym0|SCBH1.TMPF_Daym1"
            )

SOLR PREC RELH DWPF SKNT TMPF
994.6395 2510.8 2573.23 1381.33 2869.274 1954.477

Station OFRH1 (East)

formulas <- c(
                "SCBH1.SOLR_Daym0|OFRH1.SOLR_Daym1",
                "SCBH1.SOLR_Daym0|OFRH1.PREC_Daym1",
                "SCBH1.SOLR_Daym0|OFRH1.RELH_Daym1",
                "SCBH1.SOLR_Daym0|OFRH1.DWPF_Daym1",
                "SCBH1.SOLR_Daym0|OFRH1.SKNT_Daym1",
                "SCBH1.SOLR_Daym0|OFRH1.TMPF_Daym1"
            )

SOLR PREC RELH DWPF SKNT TMPF
1219.208 1449.85 2208.358 1465.674 1998.852 1346.421

Station PLHH1 (South)

formulas <- c(
                "SCBH1.SOLR_Daym0|PLHH1.SOLR_Daym1",
                "SCBH1.SOLR_Daym0|PLHH1.PREC_Daym1",
                "SCBH1.SOLR_Daym0|PLHH1.RELH_Daym1",
                "SCBH1.SOLR_Daym0|PLHH1.DWPF_Daym1",
                "SCBH1.SOLR_Daym0|PLHH1.SKNT_Daym1",
                "SCBH1.SOLR_Daym0|PLHH1.TMPF_Daym1"
            )

SOLR PREC RELH DWPF SKNT TMPF
1652.693 1220.415 3489.097 1685.387 1927.054 1544.433

Station WNVH1 (West)

formulas <- c(
                "SCBH1.SOLR_Daym0|WNVH1.SOLR_Daym1",
                "SCBH1.SOLR_Daym0|WNVH1.PREC_Daym1",
                "SCBH1.SOLR_Daym0|WNVH1.RELH_Daym1",
                "SCBH1.SOLR_Daym0|WNVH1.DWPF_Daym1",
                "SCBH1.SOLR_Daym0|WNVH1.SKNT_Daym1",
                "SCBH1.SOLR_Daym0|WNVH1.TMPF_Daym1"
            )

SOLR PREC RELH DWPF SKNT TMPF
1790.256 3607.671 1205.4 1355.246 3197.143 3572.566

Station KTAH1 (North)

formulas <- c(
                "SCBH1.SOLR_Daym0|KTAH1.SOLR_Daym1",
                "SCBH1.SOLR_Daym0|KTAH1.PREC_Daym1",
                "SCBH1.SOLR_Daym0|KTAH1.RELH_Daym1",
                "SCBH1.SOLR_Daym0|KTAH1.DWPF_Daym1",
                "SCBH1.SOLR_Daym0|KTAH1.SKNT_Daym1",
                "SCBH1.SOLR_Daym0|KTAH1.TMPF_Daym1"
            )

SOLR PREC RELH DWPF SKNT TMPF
1678.721 2527.55 2707.097 1300.865 1495.91 1231.371