Healthy Central Valley Together Update
Last compiled on 09/26/2023
Please see below for the latest update on Merced, Stanislaus, and Yolo County wastewater data.
| Percent change | |||
| Virus | Merced County | Stanislaus County | Yolo County |
|---|---|---|---|
| SARS-CoV-2 | 19% | 5% | 24% |
| Influenza A | 15% | ND | +391% |
| Influenza B | ND | ND | ND |
| RSV | +8% | +355% | 47% |
| HMPV | +LL | 89% | +522% |
| Norovirus | +1% | +48% | 11% |
| Percent change is calculated here using average of measurements over the past two weeks compared to the average of measurements from the prior two weeks. | |||
| ND- Non-detect (below detection limit) | |||
| +LL increasing but at low levels | |||
| Weeks 97-98: 08/27 - 09/09 | |||
| Weeks 99-100: 09/10 - 09/23 | |||
For each county, the concentrations obtained from each sampling location within the county were aggregated using a weighted average (weighted by sewershed population).
| Current wastewater level | |||
| Virus | Merced County | Stanislaus County | Yolo County |
|---|---|---|---|
| SARS-CoV-2 | Medium | High | Medium |
| Influenza A | Medium | Low | Medium |
| Influenza B | Low | Low | Low |
| RSV | Medium | Medium | Medium |
| HMPV | Low | Low | Low |
| Norovirus | Low | Low | Low |
| The current wastewater levels are estimated using the 10-day rolling average (10-d.m.a). The 33rd and 66th percentiles are calculated over the past 365 days before 14 days ago. For counties with less than 365 days, all days before 14 days ago are used. The current wastewater level is classified as: | |||
| • Low: The current 10-dma is below 33rd percentile | |||
| • Medium: The current 10-dma is between the 33rd and 66th percentile | |||
| • High: The current 10-dma is above 66th Percentile | |||
| The Relative Strength Index | |||
| Virus | Merced County | Stanislaus County | Yolo County |
|---|---|---|---|
| SARS-CoV-2 | No Trend | No Trend | Likely downward |
| Influenza A | No Trend | No Data | Likely upward |
| Influenza B | No Data | No Data | No Data |
| RSV | No Trend | No Trend | Downward |
| HMPV | Very likely upward | Very likely downward | Likely upward |
| Norovirus | No Trend | No Trend | Downward |
| Week 100: 09/10 - 09/23 | |||
| * The Relative Strength Index (RSI) calculates a ratio of the recent upward price movements to the absolute price movement. Developed by J. Welles Wilder. | |||
| Mann-Kendall trend test | |||
| Virus | Merced County | Stanislaus County | Yolo County |
|---|---|---|---|
| SARS-CoV-2 | Very likely downward | Very likely upward | Upward |
| Influenza A | Very likely downward | No Data | Very likely upward |
| Influenza B | No Data | No Data | No Data |
| RSV | Likely upward | No Trend | Downward |
| HMPV | Very likely upward | Very likely downward | Very likely upward |
| Norovirus | No Trend | No Trend | Very likely downward |
| Week 100: 09/10 - 09/23 | |||
| * The Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test is a nonparametric test that evaluates whether there is a monotonic trend in a time-series dataset. We applied the MK trend test to raw N/PMMoV data and used a 14-day lookback period. We interpreted positive values of the test statistic, tau (τ), with p ≤ 0.1, p ≤ 0.05, and p ≤ 0.01 as upward, likely upward, and very likely upward trends, respectively. We interpreted negative τ values with p ≤ 0.1, p ≤ 0.05, and p ≤ 0.01 as downward, likely downward, and very likely downward trends, respectively. | |||
| Percent change in the last 14 days | |||
| Virus | Merced County | Stanislaus County | Yolo County |
|---|---|---|---|
| SARS-CoV-2 | Very likely downward | Very likely upward | Very likely upward |
| Influenza A | Very likely downward | No Trend | Very likely upward |
| Influenza B | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend |
| RSV | Very likely upward | No Trend | No Trend |
| HMPV | Very likely upward | Very likely downward | Very likely upward |
| Norovirus | No Trend | No Trend | Very likely downward |
| Week 100: 09/10 - 09/23 | |||
| * The slope is calculated from a least-squares linear regression of log10-transformed values of the N/PMMoV data versus day. We used a 14-day look-back period to calculate the slope. For each slope estimate, we extracted the 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals (CIs) to calculate the 90%, 95%, and 99% CIs for each PC estimate. We interpreted PC values greater than 0 for the 90%, 95%, and 99% upper CIs as upward, likely upward, and very likely upward trends, respectively. We interpreted PC values less than 0 for the 90%, 95%, and 99% lower CIs as downward, likely downward, and very likely downward trends day and previous n - 1 days. | |||
| Percent change | ||||||||
| Virus | Merced County | Stanislaus County | Yolo County | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merced | Los Banos | Modesto | Turlock | Davis | Esparto | Winters | Woodland | |
| SARS-CoV-2 | 32% | 72% | +10% | +10% | 32% | +78% | +41% | +52% |
| Influenza A | 100% | +LL | ND | ND | +444% | ND | ND | +LL |
| Influenza B | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND |
| RSV | +223% | +LL | ND | 100% | +90% | 100% | +LL | ND |
| HMPV | +LL | ND | ND | +21% | +LL | +LL | ND | +LL |
| Norovirus | 28% | 14% | 17% | 38% | 38% | 67% | +252% | +6% |
| Percent change is calculated here using average of measurements over the past two weeks compared to the average of measurements from the prior two weeks. | ||||||||
| ND- Non-detect (below detection limit) | ||||||||
| +LL increasing but at low levels | ||||||||
| Weeks 97-98: 08/27 - 09/09 | ||||||||
| Weeks 99-100: 09/10 - 09/23 | ||||||||
| Percent change in the last 14 days | ||||||||
| Virus | Merced | Los Banos | Modesto | Turlock | Davis | Esparto | Winters | Woodland |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SARS-CoV-2 | Very likely downward | No Trend | No Trend | Downward | Very likely downward | Very likely upward | Very likely upward | No Trend |
| Influenza A | Downward | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | Very likely upward | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend |
| Influenza B | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend |
| RSV | Likely upward | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | Upward | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend |
| HMPV | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | Upward | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend |
| Norovirus | Very likely downward | Upward | Likely upward | Very likely downward | Very likely downward | Very likely downward | Very likely upward | Very likely upward |
| Week 100: 09/10 - 09/23 | ||||||||
| * The slope is calculated from a least-squares linear regression of log10-transformed values of the N/PMMoV data versus day. We used a 14-day look-back period to calculate the slope. For each slope estimate, we extracted the 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals (CIs) to calculate the 90%, 95%, and 99% CIs for each PC estimate. We interpreted PC values greater than 0 for the 90%, 95%, and 99% upper CIs as upward, likely upward, and very likely upward trends, respectively. We interpreted PC values less than 0 for the 90%, 95%, and 99% lower CIs as downward, likely downward, and very likely downward trends day and previous n - 1 days. | ||||||||
| The Relative Strength Index | ||||||||
| Virus | Merced | Los Banos | Modesto | Turlock | Davis | Esparto | Winters | Woodland |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SARS-CoV-2 | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend |
| Influenza A | No Trend | Very likely upward | No Data | No Data | Very likely upward | No Data | No Data | No Data |
| Influenza B | No Data | No Data | No Data | No Data | No Data | No Data | No Data | No Data |
| RSV | Upward | No Data | No Data | No Data | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Data |
| HMPV | No Data | No Data | No Data | No Data | Upward | No Data | No Data | No Data |
| Norovirus | Downward | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | Very likely upward | No Trend |
| Week 100: 09/10 - 09/23 | ||||||||
| * The Relative Strength Index (RSI) calculates a ratio of the recent upward price movements to the absolute price movement. Developed by J. Welles Wilder. | ||||||||
| Mann-Kendall trend test | ||||||||
| Virus | Merced | Los Banos | Modesto | Turlock | Davis | Esparto | Winters | Woodland |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SARS-CoV-2 | Very likely downward | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | Very likely downward | Very likely upward | Upward | No Trend |
| Influenza A | Very likely downward | Likely upward | No Data | No Data | Very likely upward | No Data | No Data | No Data |
| Influenza B | No Data | No Data | No Data | No Data | No Data | No Data | No Data | No Data |
| RSV | Very likely upward | No Data | No Data | No Data | Upward | No Data | No Trend | No Data |
| HMPV | No Data | No Data | No Data | No Data | Very likely upward | No Data | No Data | No Data |
| Norovirus | Very likely downward | Upward | No Trend | Likely downward | Very likely downward | Downward | Very likely upward | Likely upward |
| Week 100: 09/10 - 09/23 | ||||||||
| * The Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test is a nonparametric test that evaluates whether there is a monotonic trend in a time-series dataset. We applied the MK trend test to raw N/PMMoV data and used a 14-day lookback period. We interpreted positive values of the test statistic, tau (τ), with p ≤ 0.1, p ≤ 0.05, and p ≤ 0.01 as upward, likely upward, and very likely upward trends, respectively. We interpreted negative τ values with p ≤ 0.1, p ≤ 0.05, and p ≤ 0.01 as downward, likely downward, and very likely downward trends, respectively. | ||||||||
Merced’s average SARS-CoV-2 concentrations (N/PMMoV) decreased ⬇️ by 32% between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Los Banos’ average decreased ⬇️ by 72%.
Merced’s average Influenza A concentrations (Flu A/PMMoV) decreased ⬇️ by 100% between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Los Banos’ average increased ⬆️ by 100%.
Merced’s average Influenza B concentrations (Flu B/PMMoV) showed no detection between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Los Banos’ average showed no detection.
Merced’s average RSV concentrations (RSV/PMMoV) increased ⬆️ by 223% between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Los Banos’ average increased ⬆️ by 100%.
Merced’s HMPV concentrations (HMPV/PMMoV) increased ⬆️ by 100% between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Los Banos’s average showed no detection.
Merced’s average Norovirus concentrations (Norovirus/PMMoV) decreased ⬇️ by 28% between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Los Banos’ average decreased ⬇️ by 14%.
Modesto’s average SARS-CoV-2 concentrations (N/PMMoV) increased ⬆️ by 10% between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Turlock’s average increased ⬆️ by 10%.
Modesto’s average Influenza A concentrations (Flu A/PMMoV) showed no detection between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Turlock’s average showed no detection.
Modesto’s average Influenza B concentrations (Flu B/PMMoV) showed no detection between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Turlock’s average showed no detection.
Modesto’s average RSV concentrations (RSV/PMMoV) showed no detection between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Turlock’s average decreased ⬇️ by 100%.
Modesto’s average HMPV concentrations (HMPV/PMMoV) showed no detection between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Turlock’s average increased ⬆️ by 21%.
Modesto’s average Norovirus concentrations (Norovirus/PMMoV) decreased ⬇️ by 17% between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Turlock’s average decreased ⬇️ by 38%.
Davis’ average SARS-CoV-2 concentrations (N/PMMoV) decreased ⬇️ by 32% between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Esparto’s average increased ⬆️ by 78%. Winters’ average increased ⬆️ by 41%. Woodland’s average increased ⬆️ by 52%.
Davis’ average Influenza A concentrations (Flu A/PMMoV) increased ⬆️ by 444% between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Esparto’s average showed no detection. Winters’ average showed no detection. Woodland’s average increased ⬆️ by 100%.
Davis’ average Influenza B concentrations (Flu B/PMMoV) showed no detection between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Esparto’s average showed no detection. Winters’ average showed no detection. Woodland’s average showed no detection.
Davis’ average RSV concentrations (RSV/PMMoV) increased ⬆️ by 90% between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Esparto’s average decreased ⬇️ by 100%. Winters’ average increased ⬆️ by 100%. Woodland’s average showed no detection.
Davis’ HMPV concentrations (HMPV/PMMoV) increased ⬆️ by 100% between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Esparto’s average increased ⬆️ by 100%. Winters’ average showed no detection. Woodland’s average increased ⬆️ by 100%.
Davis’ Norovirus concentrations (Norovirus/PMMoV) decreased ⬇️ by 38% between the most recent two weeks and the two weeks prior to that. Esparto’s average decreased ⬇️ by 67%. Winters’ average increased ⬆️ by 252%. Woodland’s average increased ⬆️ by 6%.
There are no detections for samples taken at our plants from the last two weeks. https://healthycvtogether.org/monkeypox-data/