Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update

Author

DevLab@Penn

Published

September 28, 2023

Introduction

We have updated data for Ukraine, and updated data and forecasts for Albania, Hungary, Moldova, Turkey, Ukraine, India, and Philippines. We are forecasting significant events for Albania and Turkey.

In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.

We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.

MLP Website: here

PW Protected Page: here (email mlpeace-devlab@sas.upenn.edu for access)

Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here

Albania

For Albania, our data includes coverage through the end of August 2023. Since the data was last updated through May, we saw increases in reporting on:

Arrests in June: Former Mayor of Durres, Vangush Dakos, was arrested for abuse of office in relation to the collapse of a building that was approved under his authority in 2019. The secretary general of the Health Ministry was arrested for accepting bribes. The mayor of Himara, Fred Beler, was arrested on accusations of vote buying.
Purge/Replace in July: Socialist Party Deputy Nundman Rreja announced his resignation from Parliament after videos surfaced of his family committing violent crimes. A Special Prosecutor announced plans to arrests former Deputy Prime Minister for corruption.
Raids in June: Police raids were carried out at an MEK camp in Durres, resulting in one death and dozens of injuries.
Disaster in July: Large forest fires were active in the regions of Kreshpan and Peshtan. Firefighters, vehicles, and helicopters were mobilized to help extinguish the fires.

Forecasting

In our last report, our shock models predicted a spike to Lethal Violence in Q3 2023. In the first two months of Q3, we did not see a shock to Lethal Violence. In the next update, we will have full data for Q3 to assess the accuracy of this prediction.

Our updated shock models are predicting a shock to Defamation Cases in Q1 2024.

Hungary

For Hungary, our data includes coverage through the end of August 2023. Since the data was last updated through May, we saw increases in reporting on:

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Moldova

For Moldova, our data includes coverage through the end of August 2023. Since the data was last updated through April, we saw increases in reporting on:

Lethal Violence in July: Two officers were killed in an armed attack at the Chisinau airport. Communist leader of Transnistria, Oleg Horjan, was killed in his home.
Election Activity in August: The election period began for general election to be held in November. Many political parties, as well as the CEC, were active in selecting candidates and setting regulations for these elections.
Election Irregularities in August: Politician Ion Ceban accused the Central Electoral Commission of election fraud, saying that they fabricated votes, resulting in misleading election results.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Turkey

For Turkey, our data includes coverage through the end of August 2023. Since the data was last updated through May, we saw increases in reporting on:

Purge/Replace in June: President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that he was making substantial changes to his 18-member cabinet. Throughout the month, many political and police officials were removed from their positions.

Forecasting

In our last report, our standard models are predicted a spike in Lethal Violence in Q3 and Q4. Our updated models are no longer predicting levels of violence to continue to rise in Q4.

Our standard models also predicted a spike in the Civic Space Index in Q4. Our updated models are no longer predicting this increase in Q4.

Our standard models also predicted a spike in Defamation Cases in Q4, while our shock models predicted a spike in Defamation Cases in Q3. Our updated standard models are no longer predicting this increase. However, our updated shock models are predicting a spike in Defamation Cases in Q1 2024.

Ukraine

For Ukraine, our data includes coverage through the end of August 2023. Since the data was last updated through May, we saw increases in reporting on:

Corruption in August: An official was caught accepting bribes from businessmen in exchange for renting land to the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine. Throughout the month, members of the military were arrested for things such as fleeing service, accepting bribes, and misuse of funds. This resulted in President Zelensky dismissing all enlistment office chiefs.
Lethal Violence in August: Throughout the month there were thousands of deaths because of the war with Russia. The vast majority of the data for this time period were death and injury reports from Russian attacks throughout the country. The number of youth deaths was heavily emphasized in reporting.
Disaster in June: Russian forces destroyed the Kakhovka dam, causing flooding. Over 4,000 civilians were evacuated because of the flooding. The flooding also caused great amounts of property damage and resulted in multiple deaths and injuries.
Non-Lethal Violence in August: Reports on the daily injuries and property/infrastructure damage caused by Russian attacks.
Raids in August: Early in the month, Ukrainian forces conducted a raid across the Dneiper River. Later in the month, the Ukrainian Navy executed a successful raid on Russian occupied Crimea.

Forecasting

Due to the impact of the Russian invasion on Ukraine’s data and the interruption of historical patterns that our models rely on to make predictions, we do not publish forecasts for Ukraine.

India

For India, our data includes coverage through the end of August 2023. Since the data was last updated through April, we saw increases in reporting on:

Arrests in August: Throughout the month, many terrorists were arrested and sentenced, most linked to ISIS. More than 60 arrests were made in relation to a violent clash that broke out in Nuh.
Legal Changes in August: The Delhi Services Bill, along with three other major bills, were debated and eventually passed. The new bills took control over service delivery within the nation’s capital away from the local government. The Digital Personal Data Protection Bill, which claimed to protect the online privacy of citizens, was also passed.
Civic Activism in May-July: An incident of sexual violence in Manipur spurred action from women’s rights activists. Throughout this period, environmentalists were active in opposing construction projects in vulnerable areas. Farmers’ organizations were active in their efforts to protect agricultural land and farmers’ rights.
Purge/Replace in July: Rajendra Gudha was removed from his post as Minister of State of Rajasthan. After his removal, Gudha threatened to release incriminating information about the politicians who fired him. Throughout the month, policemen throughout the country were suspended or removed from their posts for various violations.
Raids in May: Throughout the month, the National Investigation Agency conducted raids as part of its crackdown against terrorist groups, gangs, and drug smugglers. Over the course of the month, hundreds of locations were raided, resulting the seizure of drugs, guns, and criminals.
Lethal Violence in June: Three leaders of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) were murdered over the course of the month. Ethnic violence in Manipur continued throughout the month, resulting in over 100 deaths and hundreds of injuries. Gang and terrorist violence also resulted in deaths throughout the month.
Non-lethal Violence in July-August: Violent riots were reported in the early parts of August in the areas of Nuh, Mewat, and Haryana. The violence in Manipur continued through both July and August.
Troop Mobilization in May: Troops were mobilized in Manipur in an attempt to diffuse the ethnic violence and help evacuate civilians. Extra police presence was felt at polling stations around the country to ensure peace during elections. A military drill in Punjab was one of the largest in recent history.
Political Threats in August: After violence broke out in Nuh at the end of July, politicians warned that there will be strict consequences for anyone who continues to try to disturb the peace. The violence in Manipur led to strong accusations between political parties and the threat of a surgical strike on those causing the violence.
Political Cooperation in July: As many as 24 parties attended a large opposition meeting in Bengaluru to build unity and momentum for the 2024 elections. In response to the meeting, the BJP organized the National Democratic Alliance meeting in Delhi, which included over 30 parties. Many governmental and non-governmental organizations worked in unison to halt the violence in Manipur and bring justice to the victims.
Disaster in July: Monsoon rains across the country caused flooding and landslides throughout the month, resulting in deaths, injuries, and destruction of property.
Election Activity in May: The state of Karnataka held its Legislative Assembly elections on May 10th, with election results being announced on May 13th. The BJP performed more poorly than expected in these elections.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Philippines

For Philippines, our data includes coverage through the end of August 2023. Since the data was last updated through May, we saw increases in reporting on:

Corruption in August: Vice President Sara Duterte and her office were accused of allocating funds without the approval of Congress. The Office of the Ombudsman investigated members of the police force, Department of Education, and others for various infractions.
Civic Activism in June: The federal government, along with NGO’s, issued aid to citizens within the immediate danger zone of the Mayon volcano, which was showing signs of imminent eruption.
Irregular Transition in June and August: Rumors of a coup against Senate President Juan Miguel Zubiri surfaced, although they never amounted to any action.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.