WA DataComp MLS
Author: Russel Walters
last updated: 2023-10-03
League Commisioner: Prof. Wyner
WA Soccer League Background:
Modeled on MLS structure.
Two conferences of 14 teams.
Regular season games can result in Win, Lose, Tie. There is OT or shotout in the regular season. All games are 90 minute soccer matches.
Schedule: Regular Season:
34 total games
Unbalanced Scheudle: All teams play everyone in their respective Conference twice (home and away) and an additional eight matches against teams in the other Conference. All teams to not play all other teams.
Playoff Structure {WIP}.
Observed Seasons (2021 & 2022)
Team Season Level:
- xG for Offense,
- xG Defense,
- XxG Goalie
Create Synthetic Season - Inputs:
Three Indepedent Team Level Descriptors:
- xG for Offense,
- xG Defense,
- XxG Goalie
Schedule of Games: Team pairs & Home-Away
There is no within season quality changes (i.e. no team gets better/worse during the season)
Table of Team level inputs (currently using Observed values from 2022)| Team | XxG_def | xG_def | xG_atk |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 0.18 | 1.46 | 1.46 |
| ATX | -0.08 | 1.52 | 1.50 |
| CHI | 0.09 | 1.32 | 1.17 |
| CIN | 0.23 | 1.47 | 1.56 |
| CLB | 0.07 | 1.14 | 1.10 |
| CLT | 0.33 | 1.20 | 1.09 |
| COL | 0.14 | 1.54 | 1.48 |
| DAL | -0.12 | 1.21 | 1.28 |
| DC | 0.50 | 1.59 | 1.09 |
| HOU | 0.02 | 1.63 | 1.29 |
| LA | 0.05 | 1.45 | 1.69 |
| LAFC | 0.14 | 0.98 | 1.83 |
| MIA | 0.31 | 1.34 | 1.19 |
| MIN | 0.06 | 1.44 | 1.26 |
| MTL | 0.45 | 1.02 | 1.50 |
| NE | 0.02 | 1.45 | 1.35 |
| NSH | 0.03 | 1.18 | 1.49 |
| NYC | 0.15 | 1.05 | 1.66 |
| ORL | 0.25 | 1.31 | 1.06 |
| PHI | -0.32 | 1.08 | 1.75 |
| POR | 0.04 | 1.51 | 1.43 |
| RBNY | 0.12 | 1.09 | 1.24 |
| RSL | 0.01 | 1.31 | 1.27 |
| SEA | -0.07 | 1.42 | 1.37 |
| SJ | 0.26 | 1.74 | 1.30 |
| SKC | 0.22 | 1.36 | 1.14 |
| TOR | 0.30 | 1.65 | 1.18 |
| VAN | 0.31 | 1.37 | 1.10 |
Compare Actual Season to Synthetic Seasons
Game outcomes (Home Team):
| Result | Synth_1 | Synth_2 | season_2021 | season_2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lose | 140 | 129 | 118 | 125 |
| Tie | 107 | 103 | 125 | 117 |
| Win | 226 | 241 | 225 | 232 |
Confusion Matrix: outcomes for HomeTeam
| Observed | Lose | Tie | Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lose | 34 | 31 | 59 |
| Tie | 35 | 22 | 60 |
| Win | 60 | 50 | 122 |
Create 50 synthetic season
Distribution of team rank over 50 seasons
Good team are good team - bad teams are bad teams dark green are the two ‘best’ teams, light great the next tier of good team. Bad teams are Red.
Game outcomes: Histogram Goals score by H-A
Real Season 2022 compared to average over 50 synthetic seassons
Game outcomes: Histogram 2021 vs 2022
### Game outcomes: Histogram 50 Synthetic (based on 2022) vs Actual 2021
Time of Posession
Time of possession: not predictive of outcomes
HomeTeam ToP > AwayTeam ToP.
ToF == sum the numbers of passes of one team during the match and
dividing it by the number of total passes made by both teams.
- Use event data to create actual ToP season averags for all teams.
- Randomly apply high ToP and low ToP teams.
- Individual games calculated by team ToP pairings.
One season does not predcit the next seasson: 2021 & 2022
