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Big Data for Strategic Planning

1. Awareness: data on what’s happening very recently
   • Better understanding the operating environment
   • Document recent events and trends with hard-data
     
     
2. Planning: predictive analytics for strategic decisions
   • Advanced warning of major events
   • Inform strategic planning

Big Data for Strategic Planning

1. Awareness: data on what’s happening very recently
   • Mass scraping online news + ML to track events
   • NLP news into 18 civic space and 22 RAI events
   • Interactive data dashboards
     
     
2. Planning: predictive analytics for strategic decisions
   • Forecast 14 civic space events + Russian/Chinese influence
   • Civic Space Early Warning System

Data Production

Output: Monthly data

• 56 countries
• 2012 - 2023

Awareness: Civic event detection

Planning: Forecasting events

Recent examples of advanced warning

• Corruption in Colombia (July)
  
• Legal Change in Senegal (July)
• Non-Lethal Violence in Guatemala (June)
• Legal Action in Zambia (May-June)
• Arrests in Kosovo (May)

Planning: Forecasting events

Performance since December 2022

• 55 predictions evaluated
• 73% success rate (w/in 1 quarter)
• 22 countries
• 14 event categories

Planning: Forecasting events

MLP Data for Policy Research

• Unique data:
  • Wide range of events where data has been limited/unavailable (foreign influence, censorship, etc.)
  • High frequency measures
  • Comprehensive, accurate capture from local sources
• Allows us to ask (and answer!) new, important policy questions

Policy Research #1: Legal Restrictions

• Question: What is the impact of legal restrictions on media reporting and citizens’ online behavior?
• Analysis: Tens of millions of newspaper articles and citizen posts in Tanzania before and after draconian laws
• Finding 1: Press restrictions don’t impact WHAT press reports, but HOW it reports.
• Finding 2: Many citizen accounts become inactive, but many new ones open. The extent of critical posting stays the same.

Policy Research #1: Legal Restrictions

Policy Research #1: Legal Restrictions

Policy Research #2: Elections and RAI

• Question: Do Russian/Chinese foreign influence activities change around elections?
• Data: Daily measures of RAI activity around 86 elections in 41 countries.
• Findings: Many RAI activities do not change, but `domestic interference’ increases before and during elections (policy interventions, cyber/intelligence operations)

Policy Research #2: Elections and RAI

RAI Explorer

New set of dashboards focusing on RAI

• 22 RAI event categories
• For 56 countries over 140 months each
• Grouped into 6 RAI themes
• Forecasts of Russian and/or Chinese foreign activity

RAI Explorer: Relative Influence

RAI Explorer: Absolute Influence

Extensions and Future Plans

• Expanding to track and forecast new events or topics
  • Resurgent Authoritarian Influence (RAI), environmental conflict
  • Media polarization, threatening language
    
    
• Country coverage
  • New countries
  • Subnational data

Thank You