Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update

Author

DevLab@Penn

Published

September 11, 2023

Introduction

We have data and forecasts for one new country: Liberia. We have updated data and forecasts for Colombia, Honduras, Guatemala, Algeria, Malawi, Zambia, and South Africa. We are forecasting significant events for Algeria, Colombia, and South Africa.

In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.

We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.

MLP Website: here

PW Protected Page: here (email mlpeace-devlab@sas.upenn.edu for access)

Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here

Current country coverage

Liberia

Liberia is a new country. Our data includes coverage through the end of July 2023. Over the last four months, we did not detect reporting on any major events.

Forecasts

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Colombia

For Colombia, our data includes coverage through the end of July 2023. Since the data was last updated through April, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Legal Actions in June: Former Presidential candidate Oscar Ivan Zuluaga and his son were charged with corruption based on allegations of misused funds. There was a large scale investigation into the death of Colonel Oscar Dávila throughout the month. The Prosecutor’s office continued an investigation into the possible illegal financing of President Petro’s campaign.
  • Arrests in July: Twenty-three active and retired military personnel were arrested for corrupt recruiting practices. Nicolás Petro, son of President Petro, was arrested along with his ex-wife for crimes including money laundering and illicit enrichment.
  • Corruption in July: Former Presidential candidate Oscar Ivan Zuluaga and his son were charged with corruption based on allegations of misused funds. Millions of dollars from a Brazilian corporation were illegally funneled into Zuluaga’s 2014 campaign. Nicolás Petro, son of President Petro, was arrested along with his ex-wife for crimes including money laundering and illicit enrichment.

Forecasting

In our last report, our standard models predicted a large increase in reporting on Corruption in Q3 and Q4 2023. Consistent with this prediction, we saw a sharp increase in reporting on Corruption in July.

Previous Forecast: Actual vs. Predicted Our updated standard models are still predicting elevated levels of reporting on Corruption in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024.

In October, we predicted increases in reporting on Legal Actions in January and again in May 2023. In the February update, we saw a dramatic spike in reporting on Legal Actions in January that was consistent with this prediction. Our updated forecasts from February and again in April were predicting elevated levels of Legal Actions in Q3 and again in Q4 2023. Consistent with this prediction, we observed a spike in reporting on Legal Actions in June, although this spike was smaller than the prediction.

Previous Forecast: Actual vs. Predicted Our updated forecasts are still predicting slightly elevated levels of reporting on legal actions in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024. However, the accuracy of these updated models have fallen below our reporting threshold.

Honduras

For Honduras, our data includes coverage through the end of July 2023. Since the data was last updated through April, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Legal changes in May: A controversial bill known as the Tax Justice Act was brought before the National Congress. This bill proposes changes to bank secrecy laws, corporate income tax, and many other issues.
  • Civic Activism in May: World Vision announced a study finding that 500,000 Honduran children have to work to survive.
  • Non-lethal Violence in May: Gang-related attacks and robberies slowed transportation routes throughout the country. The Honduran Red Cross office was attacked, causing damage to an ambulance.
  • Purge/Replace in June: President Castro dismissed his Minister of Security after a large massacre occurred at a women’s detention facility. The Deputy Minister of Security was also suspended from office following the attack.
  • Raids in June: The Public Prosecutor’s Office carried out raids in an effort to minimize money laundering from the United States.
  • Lethal Violence in June: Six people were killed, along with two injured, during a massacre in San Pedro Sula.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Guatemala

For Guatemala, our data includes coverage through the end of July 2023. Since the data was last updated through April, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Censorship in May: A major Guatemalan newspaper shut down ten months after the arrest of its founder and president, who remains imprisoned. This closure caused concern about the state of democracy in Guatemala.
  • Raids in July: The Public Prosecutor’s Office conducted raids on the Supreme Electoral Court, as well as the central offices of the Seed political party.
  • Non-lethal Violence in June: Violence broke out throughout the country on election day, including the bombing of a polling station. Multiple people opened fire outside of the headquarters of the Cabal political party.
  • Election Activity in June: The 25th of June was election day, with citizens voting on mayoral, parliamentary, and presidential positions. Throughout the remainder of the month votes were tallied and results were announced.
  • Election Irregularity in July: Multiple political parties requested a judicial review of election results, which was granted by the Constitutional Court. This caused global outcry, with many worried that this process would cause unnecessary mistrust of the electoral system.

Forecasting

In our last report, our shock models are predicted a spike in Non-lethal Violence in Q3 2023. Consistent with this prediction, we saw a shock to Non-lethal Violence at the end of Q2 in June.

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Algeria

For Algeria, our data includes coverage through the end of July 2023. Since the data was last updated through June, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Non-lethal violence in July: A judge of the Court of Mostaganem survived a shooting.
  • Disasters in July: Wildfires continued to spread throughout the country, causing death, injury, and a closure of the Tunisian border.

Forecasting

Our standard forecasting models are predicting a small increase in the Civic Space Index in Q1 2024.

Malawi

For Malawi, our data includes coverage through the end of July 2023. Since the data was last updated through April, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Political threats in May: Members of the Democratic Progressive Party, which supports presidential candidate Kondwani Nankhumwa, threatened legal action if a party convention was not held within the year.
  • Non-lethal Violence in May: Members of the UTM and MCP political parties violently clashed outside of the newly opened Malawi Bureau of Standards.
  • Arrests in May-June: Director of Operations for the Democratic Progressive Party was arrested in relation to a robbery. Two village chiefs and their six advisors were sentenced to prison time in relation to a mishandled defilement case.
  • Civic Activism in June: Various NGO’s lobbied for causes including environmental protection, gender equality, and education throughout the month.
  • Election Activity in July: District Council Chairperson elections were held in various districts throughout the country.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

South Africa

For South Africa, our data includes coverage through the end of July 2023. Since the data was last updated through May, we did not detect reporting on any major events.

Forecasting

Our shock models are predicting a shock to Legal Changes in Q3 and Q4 2023.

Zambia

For Zambia, our data includes coverage through the end of July 2023. Since the data was last updated through April, we saw increases in reporting on:

  • Legal Actions in May-June: A PF Chairperson was accused of defamation for comments made about the President.
  • Political Cooperation in June: President Hichilema met with various European leaders throughout the month in an attempt to improve trade relations outside of Africa. Zambia is set for major debt restructuring after the Paris Summit on Easing Debt Burdens for Impoverished Nations.
  • Troop Mobilization in May: Heavy police presence was reported around a former president’s house after reports of a robbery.

Forecasting

In our last report, our shock models are predicted a spike in Legal Actions in Q2 2023. Consistent with this prediction, we saw a shock to Legal Actions in May and June.

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.