Historical Status

Figure 1. Historical trends in \(SSB/B_{MSY}\) with marginal plot of current status, ribbons show inter-quartiles and \(90_{th}\) percentile, relative to median.

Figure 2. Historical trends in \(F/F_{MSY}\) with marginal plot of current status, ribbons show inter-quartiles and \(90_{th}\) percentile, relative to median.

Current Status

Figure 3. Kobe phase plot for \(SSB/B_{MSY}\) in 2021 and \(F/F_{MSY}\) in 2020

Figure 4. Kobe phase plot for \(SSB/B_{MSY}\) in 2022 and \(F/F_{MSY}\) in 2022

Figure 5. Kobe phase plots for historical and \(F/F_{MSY}\) forecasts, with correlations.

Projections

Figure 6. Recent historical and future trends in \(SSB/B_{MSY}\) and projection for \(F_{MSY}\), marginal plot of status in 2032, ribbons show inter-quartiles and \(90_{th}\) percentile, relative to median.

Figure 7. Recent historical and future trends in \(F/F_{MSY}\) and projection for \(F_{MSY}\), marginal plot of status in 2032, ribbons show inter-quartiles and \(90_{th}\) percentile, relative to median.

Figure 8. Deterministic values of \(SSB/B_{MSY}\) for projections

Figure 9. Deterministic values of \(F/F_{MSY}\) for projections.

Figure 10. Median estimates of \(B/SSB_{MSY}\) for projections.

Figure 11. Median estimates of \(F/SSB_{MSY}\) for projections.

Figure 12. Plot of \(B/SSB_{MSY}\) & \(F/F_{MSY}\) with sample Monte Carlo simulations.

Table 1. Covariances from SS

            Bratio_2020 Bratio_2021 Bratio_2022 F_2020 F_2021 F_2022
Bratio_2020        1.00        0.98        0.93  -0.73  -0.56  -0.50
Bratio_2021        0.98        1.00        0.98  -0.78  -0.60  -0.54
Bratio_2022        0.93        0.98        1.00  -0.82  -0.63  -0.57
F_2020            -0.73       -0.78       -0.82   1.00   0.60   0.57
F_2021            -0.56       -0.60       -0.63   0.60   1.00   0.48
F_2022            -0.50       -0.54       -0.57   0.57   0.48   1.00

Table 2. Covariances simulated by MVLN

Table 3. Estimates of \(SSB/B_{MSY}\)

$ stock 
An object of class "FLQuant"
, , unit = unique, season = all, area = unique

     year
quant 2020    2021    2022    2023   
  all 1.06319 1.05728 1.03286 0.99326

units:  NA 

$ harvest 
An object of class "FLQuant"
, , unit = unique, season = all, area = unique

     year
quant 2020    2021    2022    2023   
  all 0.77501 0.73481 0.75819 0.76533

units:  NA

Table 4. Summary of MVLN terminal estimates of \(SSB/B_{MSY}\)

  iter 2020 2021 2022
1  15% 0.95 0.95 0.92
2  50% 1.06 1.06 1.04

Table 5. Summary of MVLN terminal estimates of \(F/F_{MSY}\)

  iter 2020 2021 2022
1  35% 0.74 0.70 0.71
2  50% 0.77 0.73 0.76

Table 6. Probability of being in green quadrant.

     year
Run   2023  2024  2025  2026  2027  2028  2029   2030  
  0   "47%" "38%" "53%" "67%" "90%" "99%" "100%" "100%"
  150 "47%" "37%" "35%" "31%" "43%" "70%" "88%"  "95%" 
  175 "47%" "37%" "32%" "26%" "35%" "59%" "79%"  "90%" 
  200 "47%" "37%" "30%" "22%" "27%" "49%" "68%"  "82%" 
  225 "47%" "37%" "27%" "18%" "21%" "39%" "55%"  "69%" 
  250 "47%" "37%" "24%" "15%" "16%" "29%" "44%"  "56%" 
  275 "47%" "37%" "22%" "11%" "12%" "20%" "35%"  "42%" 
  300 "47%" "32%" "19%" "8%"  "8%"  "14%" "24%"  "29%" 
  325 "47%" "23%" "13%" "7%"  "6%"  "9%"  "14%"  "17%" 
  350 "46%" "12%" "7%"  "3%"  "3%"  "5%"  "7%"   "8%"  
  375 "47%" "6%"  "3%"  "1%"  "1%"  "3%"  "3%"   "4%"  
  400 "45%" "2%"  "1%"  "0%"  "0%"  "1%"  "1%"   "1%"

Table 7. Probability of being over fished.

     year
Run   2023  2024  2025  2026  2027  2028  2029  2030 
  0   "52%" "61%" "46%" "32%" "9%"  "0%"  "0%"  "0%" 
  150 "52%" "62%" "64%" "68%" "56%" "29%" "11%" "4%" 
  175 "52%" "62%" "67%" "73%" "64%" "40%" "20%" "9%" 
  200 "52%" "62%" "69%" "77%" "72%" "50%" "31%" "17%"
  225 "52%" "62%" "72%" "81%" "78%" "60%" "44%" "30%"
  250 "52%" "61%" "74%" "84%" "83%" "70%" "55%" "43%"
  275 "52%" "61%" "76%" "88%" "87%" "79%" "64%" "57%"
  300 "52%" "61%" "78%" "90%" "91%" "84%" "74%" "69%"
  325 "52%" "62%" "81%" "92%" "92%" "89%" "83%" "78%"
  350 "53%" "63%" "85%" "94%" "95%" "92%" "88%" "86%"
  375 "52%" "63%" "86%" "95%" "96%" "94%" "92%" "90%"
  400 "54%" "64%" "87%" "96%" "97%" "96%" "95%" "93%"

Table 8. Probability of overfishing.

     year
Run   2023 2024  2025  2026  2027  2028  2029  2030 
  0   "3%" "0%"  "0%"  "0%"  "0%"  "0%"  "0%"  "0%" 
  150 "3%" "0%"  "0%"  "0%"  "0%"  "0%"  "0%"  "0%" 
  175 "3%" "0%"  "0%"  "0%"  "0%"  "0%"  "0%"  "0%" 
  200 "3%" "0%"  "0%"  "0%"  "0%"  "0%"  "0%"  "0%" 
  225 "3%" "2%"  "1%"  "1%"  "0%"  "0%"  "0%"  "0%" 
  250 "3%" "9%"  "8%"  "7%"  "5%"  "4%"  "3%"  "2%" 
  275 "3%" "23%" "24%" "23%" "21%" "19%" "17%" "14%"
  300 "3%" "44%" "46%" "47%" "46%" "43%" "40%" "39%"
  325 "3%" "65%" "68%" "70%" "70%" "68%" "67%" "68%"
  350 "3%" "83%" "86%" "86%" "87%" "86%" "86%" "86%"
  375 "5%" "92%" "94%" "95%" "94%" "94%" "93%" "93%"
  400 "3%" "97%" "98%" "98%" "98%" "98%" "97%" "98%"