Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update

Author

DevLab@Penn

Published

August 30, 2023

Introduction

We have updated data for Mali and updated data and forecasts for Kyrgyzstan, Senegal, Kenya, Peru, Nigeria, El Salvador, Nicaragua. We are forecasting significant events for Senegal, Kyrgyzstan, and El Salvador.

In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.

We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.

MLP Website: here

PW Protected Page: here (email mlpeace-devlab@sas.upenn.edu for access)

Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here

Mali

For Mali, our data includes coverage through the end of July 2023. Since the data was last updated through April, we saw increases in reporting on:

Election Activity in June: On the June 18, Mali voted on a Constitutional Referendum that had been postponed since 2017. The results of the vote were 97% yes. The referendum created new regions and increased the powers of the president.
Purge/Replace in July: A large reorganization of the Malian government was carried out as a result of the Constitutional Referendum held in June. This involved the replacement of the Ministers of Health, Youth, and Agriculture, among others.

Forecasts

Due to the low volume of articles from local sources, we do not publish forecasts for Niger.

Kenya

For Kenya, our data includes coverage through the end of July 2023. Since the data was last updated through April, we saw increases in reporting on:

Arrests in June: Politicians who hoped to bolster youth support through bribery and buying them alcohol were arrested. Police officials were arrested throughout the month for accepting bribes.
Defamation Cases in June: A court issued an arrest warrant for a Kenyan activist accused of making false claims about politicians on social media.
Legal Action in May: A probe was launched into a cult related massacre that resulted in at least 111 deaths. The cult leader and two pastors were arrested as part of the probe. A former politician was listed as wanted due to various weapons being found in his home.
Legal Changes in June: A series of tax increases known as the Finance Bill was signed into law by the President; however, implementation was blocked by the courts. The Bill faced heavy criticism from Kenyan citizens who believe the tax hikes are unfair.
Corruption in May: A Deputy Governor was expelled from his party after accusations of misuse of public funds. President William Ruto made major changes to the Public Health Department after a scandal involving mosquito nets.
Purge/Replace in May: Deputy Governor William Oduol was expelled from his party and became the subject of an impeachment vote. There were also questions over whether due process was followed during the firing of the Public Health Principal Secretary.
Lethal Violence in July: Early in the month, 20 Al Shabaab militants were killed by Kenyan police. The death toll of the Shakahola cult massacre reached a total of 372. Throughout the month, civilians were killed during anti-government protests around the country.
Political Threats in July: President William Ruto threatened anti-government protesters and their leader with legal action if they do not stop protests.
Political Cooperation in July: President Ruto met with members of the ODM party and engaged in talks over the development of Kenya. President Ruto and Azimio leader agreed to hold talks to end violent protests. Kenya and Iran entered multiple agreements after a set of bilateral talks by the countries leaders.

Forecasting

In our last report, our standard models predicted a large increase in reporting on Corruption in Q3 and Q4 2023. Instead, we saw a much smaller increase in Q2 2024. Our updated models are now predicting increased reporting on Corruption in Q4 2023 into Q1 2024, although the predicted increase is much smaller than in the previous forecast.

Nigeria

For Nigeria, our data includes coverage through the end of July 2023. Since the data was last updated through March, we saw increases in reporting on:

Legal Action in July: Various government ministers and officials were charged with corruption. The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) called for an investigation into a terrorist attack targeting its presidential flag bearer.
Civic Activism in April: Candidates and political groups formally petitioned government challenging the election of various government officials in the March elections.
Purge/Replace in June: Several members of the police and security forces were removed and calls were made for additional removals in response to rising insecurity. Many government officials called for the firing of the head of the nation’s electoral commission after criticism of the March elections.
Raids in May: The Department of State Services (DSS) raided the offices of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission. DSS also conducted a significant raid on terror groups in the country.
State of Emergency in July: The Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) group ordered citizens to go on lockdown in several parts of the country. The lockdown was enforced by gunmen in some areas. Local governments in at least two areas imposed a 24-hour curfew in response to criminal activity.

Forecasting

In our last report, our standard models predicted a small increase in the Civic Space Index in Q2 2023. Consistent with this prediction, we saw an increase in Q2 that continued into Q3. Our updated model is predicting stability over the next seven months.

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Senegal

For Senegal, our data includes coverage through the end of July 2023. Since the data was last updated through April, we saw increases in reporting on:

Legal Changes in July: The National Assembly met to discuss amendments to the Electoral Code. A bill changing election sponsorship requirements was adopted.
Protests in June: Violent political demonstrations took place in Dakar. These protests resulted in numerous arrests and hundreds of injuries.
Lethal Violence in June: Officials estimated that at least thirty civilians died during the violent protests early in the month.
Non-Lethal Violence in June: The protests that occurred early in the month resulted in hundreds of injuries and the destruction of property.
Political Cooperation in May: The President announced a plan to hold a meeting of political officials in hopes of creating a dialogue to facilitate peace.

Forecasting

In our last report, our shock models predicted an increase in Legal Changes in Q3 and Q4 2023. Consistent with this prediction, we saw a large increase in reporting on Legal Changes in Q3. Our shock models are currently predicting a shock to Civic Activism in Q4 2023.

Kyrgyzstan

For Kyrgyzstan, our data includes coverage through the end of July 2023. Since the data was last updated through April, we saw increases in reporting on:

Purge/Replace in April: A large number of political and legal officials resigned or were removed from their positions. This included the resignation of the Head of the Department of Internal Affairs of Bishkek and the removal of six members of the Court of Accounts.
Legal Changes in June: The Foreign Agents Bill, a set of laws limiting the power of non-profit organizations and media, was formally considered. The Bill met fierce opposition, which has resulted in many politicians withdrawing their signatures.
Corruption in May: Officials from multiple government institutions were detained throughout the month for taking bribes. The institutions involved included the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Central Electoral Commission, and police officials.
Political Threats in July: The United State threatened to impose sanctions on Kyrgyzstan due to their trade partnership with Russia.
Irregular Transition in June: The National Security Committee identified and detained a group of individuals who were allegedly planning to organize a coup. The group was attempting to organize mass protests followed by the violent seizure of power.
Election Irregularities in May: In the election for a deputy in the Lenin district, candidate Damira Niyazalieva was accused of bribery for votes.

Forecasting

In our last report, our shock models predicted an increase in Purge/Replace in Q3 2023. We did not observe a shock in the first month of Q3. Our shock models are currently predicting a shock to Corruption in Q1 2023.

El Salvador

For El Salvador, our data includes coverage through the end of July 2023. Since the data was last updated through April, we saw increases in reporting on:

Raids in May: A military siege was conducted in an attempt to find the person responsible for the murder of a police officer. This siege involved the deployment of 5,000 soldiers and 500 police officers.
Lethal Violence in May: A Police officer was murdered by three gang members in Chalatenango.
Election Activity in July: Political parties elected candidates for various positions in the upcoming 2024 elections. This included the position of President, Vice President, Mayoral positions, and many more. The Salvadoran government hired the company Indra to implement an online voting system in the country, as well as a company to audit the online voting process.
Political Cooperation in July: El Salvador and the EU entered a memorandum to help improve general relations. The Salvadoran government agreed to enter into dialogue with members of the health sector in an attempt to reduce tension caused by the suspension of doctors.

Forecasting

Our shock models are currently forecasting a shock to Non-lethal Violence in Q4 2023. Our standard models are predicting a spike in Lethal Violence in Q1 2024.

Nicaragua

For Nicaragua, our data includes coverage through the end of July 2023. Since the data was last updated through April, we saw increases in reporting on:

Civic Activism in July: A group of Nicaraguan civil society organizations launched a campaign to support the freedom of over 60 political prisoners.
Raids in May: Throughout the month, police conducted raids in an attempt to capture citizens opposed to the current government.
Political Threats in May: Citizens who criticized leader Daniel Ortega were threatened with arrest.
Political Cooperation in July: The Nicaraguan and Honduran military forces agreed to increase cooperation and share real time intelligence.
Protests in July: Events marking the anniversary of the Sandinista Revolution were held in Managua.

Forecasting

In our last report, our standard models predicted an increase in reporting on Protest in Q2 and Q3 2023. Consistent with this prediction, we observed an increase in reporting on Protest in the first month of Q3.

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Peru

For Peru, our data includes coverage through the end of July 2023. Since the data was last updated through April, we did not see increases in reporting on any civic space events.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.