AI is our generation’s electricity.

Promising investment areas for AI in the next half-decade.

Peter Buck | BackoftheNapkin on Twitter

23 August 2023

Peter Buck Peter Buck @backofthenpakin

Electricity sparked the industrial revolution in the 1900s. Electrical lighting and motors changed the look of factories and cities. Centrally generated electricity allowed businesses to locate in new areas and become more efficient.

“Someday I’ll harness that power.”

In this century, Artificial Intelligence will magnified how computers improve business outcomes.

AI will revolutionize industry, with endless possibilities found in statistical patterns. Businesses can focus AI on domains to bring meaningful improvements and cost savings, while also providing competitive advantages.

Technology-driven revolutions typically follow an S curve. For AI revolution we are at its steepest point today, marking significant change and evolution in business.

Metaphor for business evolution - the S Curve.
Metaphor for business evolution - the S Curve.

We will return to a second steep S Curve in the middle half of this century when quantum and neuromorphic technologies become a reality, transforming AI forever.1 Each curve represents a new initiative, tracing the path from its start through its growth and maturity. ​Once an innovation reaches maturity, the business enters a steady state. While this state might be a relief, this is where an sectors can stagnate. To avoid decline or obscurity, ideas congeal to launch new markets. For now, let’s focus on what we can control.

Promise and Peril: Where to Focus?

There are many investment opportunities in AI or AI influenced products. AI is increasingly integrated into our everyday lives, just as electricity did at the start of this century.

The list of AI developments is long, so where should you focus? Take autonomous vehicles or healthcare, where AI-driven diagnostic tools and personalized treatment plans are available. Or take education, where personalized learning plans accomodate divergent learning styles. How about corporate security and document generation?

AI has the potential to revolutionize many industries. Ultimately, it is up to organizations to decide which applications of AI are best suited to their needs and goals2 Every enterprise needs an AI strategy, how to build yours. Medium July 2023. AI is like a toolbox; you have many options available, but you need to select the right ones that are appropriate to your objectives. McKinsey establishes a set of six capabilities to frame the tools and talent necessary, in Rewire to Out-compete.3 Rewire to outcompete. McKinsey Quarterly 2023.

McKinsey Consulting scorecard of 6 AI capabilities.
McKinsey Consulting scorecard of 6 AI capabilities.

However, just because something is possible, it does not make it fit-for-purpose.

Business Sectors Subject to AI Transformation

AI has the potential to transform a wide range of industries, so let’s talk about AI’s future in specific business sectors. These items are grouped, leaders to laggards, based a sectors ability to capture the complete benefits of AI. Beyond technological advances, laggards progress is constrained by capital or regulatory constraints.

Leaders

Mixed to Uncertain

Laggards

These areas are just a few examples of the various applications of AI that could be created and benefited from in the future. But how far can AI go?

Human-AI Harmony: Can AI Replace Humans?

Many aspects of our lives can be revolutionized by artificial intelligence, and it has already demonstrated its transformative power in different fields. Humans will remain relevant for the next century because of our adaptable intelligence and empathy. AI cannot replace humans in all respects.

“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

— Yogi Berra, NY Yankees Catcher

Data analysis, pattern recognition, automation, and even creative endeavors such as writing music, art, and literature have been demonstrated by artificial intelligence. In a number of industries, it has the potential to greatly increase productivity, efficiency, and problem-solving. The use of AI in healthcare, transportation, and communication, for example, can revolutionize healthcare, transportation, and communication.

However, there are certain limitations to consider.

Limitation Considerations
General intelligence Despite its excellence in narrow and specialized tasks, AI lacks humans’ broad and adaptable intelligence. There are several aspects of human intelligence that artificial intelligence systems cannot replicate, including emotional understanding, common sense reasoning, learning, and adaptability.
Ethics and values It lacks consciousness, emotions, or ethical values. AI makes its decisions based on patterns in data and programming. It may not always make moral or empathetic choices as humans can. As AI is used, ethical questions arise about accountability and bias in decision-making as well.
Contextual understanding AI struggles to understand complex contexts, nuances, and subtle cues that are part of human cognition. These cues include sarcasm, irony, or cultural nuances in communication.
Creativity Despite AI’s ability to generate creative outputs, its creativity is still limited by the data on which it is trained. Truly groundbreaking innovation often relies on the combination of unexpected ideas and novel insights. This is an aspect of human creativity that AI has yet to fully emulate.
Intuitive interaction Interaction with the environment, intuition, and sensory experiences is integral to human activity. Even though robots and artificial intelligence can be used to perform certain physical tasks, it is extremely difficult to replicate humans’ physical and intuitive abilities.

Artificial intelligence may indeed become more advanced and integrated into our lives in the future, but it will not completely replace humans. AI will enhance human capabilities and augment decision-making in a symbiotic relationship. It is true that artificial intelligence is revolutionary and transformative, but its development and deployment must take into account both its capabilities and what makes humans unique.

Are there AI Bottlenecks and what does the Future Hold?

Despite AI’s revolutionary potential, it’s not without challenges. These are some of the biggest bottlenecks we face, ordered by complexity to achieve. The environmental impact of the computational crunch is my top concern.

  1. Data Dilemma: AI needs tons of high-quality data to grow, but scarcity, bias, and privacy concerns are real obstacles. The data dilemma grows as copyright restrictions increase or as organizations hope to privatize generative AI. 

  2. Computational Crunch: Training advanced AI models requires a tremendous amount of computational power and energy, which is expensive and unfriendly to the environment.

  3. Security Standoff: Artificial intelligence is susceptible to adversarial attacks, so it is essential to ensure AI systems are secure and robust.

  4. Bias Buster: As we develop artificial intelligence, we need to ensure it is fair and balanced, because AI will inherit biases from training data, resulting in unfair outcomes.

  5. Ethical Concerns: The use of artificial intelligence is increasingly part of our lives, bringing ethical dilemmas like job displacement, privacy loss, and potential misuse of technology.

  6. Human-AI Harmony: Seamless human-AI interaction requires innovative approaches to interface design and human-computer interaction.

  7. Explainability Enigma: Understanding AI decision-making processes is complicated as AI systems become more complex. We need AI that understands what it is doing so we can grasp what it is doing and why!

  8. Generalization Gap: We need AI that transfers knowledge from one domain to another. The Generalization Gap: AI models struggle to apply knowledge from one domain to another.

  9. The Regulatory Race: AI technology advancements often outpace appropriate regulations. It is difficult to balance innovation and governance.

  10. The Empathy Gap: There are still limitations to AI’s effectiveness, including its inability to match a human’s understanding, common sense reasoning, or creativity.

As AI continues to advance, we need to consider ethical implications and societal impacts as well.

Who are the winners in the AI Evolution?

There are three winning segments: the platform providers - Microsoft, Google, and Amazon. The business professionals. And the hardware providers. While some suggest a “tiny part of this Elephant [the AI revolution] is the rise of makers,”11 Gimitri Glazkov’s created a compelling post The Rise of the Makers. their contributions can easily be trampled by platform companies.

Regarding the hardware providers, the following areas are promising:

  1. AI hardware accelerators or specialized GPUs and task-optimized chips for real-time pattern recognition and complex data analysis. When coupled with new memory architectures, larger data models are possible. Further, hardware with embedded security threads will see increased demand.

  2. Quantum processors for problems conventional computers cannot solve, including spatial modeling and encryption. While quantum computing focuses on solving problems in areas such as simulation and encryption, neuromorphic computing generally targets problems in machine learning and artificial intelligence. The quoromorphic project12 Neuromorphic Quantum Computing introduces human brain-inspired hardware. Research 2022. is an attempt to merge the research domains.

  3. Neuromorphic13 Background on Wikipedia. computing, using pathways based on our brain’s architecture, will revolutionize data processing because data processing volume goes up, energy consumption goes down. Neuromorphic will underpin green compute architectures14 How to build brain-inspired neural networks based on light. 2022 research..

Brain-inspired compute platforms.
Brain-inspired compute platforms.
  1. Wearable devices will improve and create the largest new hardware segment for both business and consumer. Microsoft and Apple will lead these efforts, while Amazon will improve sensors for autonomous vehicles. Implantable medical device will naturally follow this evolution.

  2. Demands for IoT will drive continued demand for more efficient edge computing. This hardware will run local models and remove the impact of network latency. This transition is well underway, and Apple consumer initiatives will lead the way.

  3. Often overlooked is hardware cooling infrastructures. New innovation is required as devices are more densely arrayed and more powerful.

  4. A confluence of biotech and computing will lead to breakthroughs in brain-computer interfaces and medical devices. New computational and sustainability standards will emerge.

Hardware breakthroughs are closely linked to breakthroughs in software, algorithms, and system design.

Final Thoughts

As with electricity, AI faces challenges related to usability, delivery, and cost. Humans are now more important than ever as the “adult in the room.” Our intuition, adaptability, and empathy will lead AI towards good rather than evil. 

Future with AI as electricity
Future with AI as electricity

Let’s build the future together.