Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update
Introduction
We have data and forecasts for one new country: South Sudan. We have updated data for Niger and Ethiopia and updated data and forecasts for Cameroon, Mozambique, Rwanda, Morocco, Tunisia, and Kazakhstan. We are forecasting significant events for Morocco and Rwanda.
In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.
We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.
MLP Website: here
PW Protected Page: here (email mlpeace-devlab@sas.upenn.edu for access)
Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here
New Country: South Sudan
South Sudan is a new country. Our data includes coverage through the end of June 2023. Over the last four months, we saw increases in reporting on:
- Legal Changes in April: The national council of ministers approved amendments to the National Elections Act of 2012, making significant changes to the allocation of seats in parliament. The bill proceeded to parliament for deliberation.
- Corruption in April: The National Legislative Assembly revoked the immunity of seven MPs, allowing them to face criminal charges for different corruption related crimes.
- Protests in April: Protests over local issues occurred in several states, including residents protesting the appointment of a new county commissioner and civil servants striking over salary arrears.
- Non-Lethal Violence in April: An influx of refugees from neighboring Sudan sparked conflict between refugees and host communities. Several abductions of citizens by armed gunmen were also reported.
- Political Cooperation in April–May: Civil-military dialogues were conducted in multiple counties to promote stability and social cohesion among politically divided communities and the military.
- State of Emergency in May: A curfew was implemented in a town in Upper Nile after clashes over water access.
Forecasts
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Niger
For Niger, our data includes coverage through the end of June 2023. Note: coverage does not include the coup on July 26. Since the data was last updated through March, we saw increases in reporting on:
- Political Cooperation in May: Politicians from various countries, including Niger, gathered to take place in a training workshop to improve the basic tools of democracy. Ministers of trade from Benin, Niger, Togo, and Burkina Faso met to discuss the legal framework for road transport. The Network of Journalists on the Promotion of Human Rights held a training session for journalists in Niamey on the law on cyber crime and freedom of expression.
Forecasts
Due to the low volume of articles from local sources, we do not publish forecasts for Niger.
Ethiopia
For Ethiopia, our data includes coverage through the end of June 2023. Since the data was last updated through March, we saw increases in reporting on:
- Corruption in June: The U.N. World Food Program and USAID paused food aid to Ethiopian region due to suspicion that the food was being diverted to the military.
Forecasts
Due to the low volume of articles from local sources, we do not publish forecasts for Ethiopia.
Cameroon
For Cameroon, our data includes coverage through the end of June 2023. Since the data was last updated through April, we saw increases in reporting on:
- Purge/Replace in May: The executive and founder of the MRC political party announced his resignation from his post and membership of the party.
- Non-Lethal Violence in May: Clashes between the Bull and Bamoun ethnic groups in the Sangmelima region have resulted in violence. This violence included the kidnapping of 50 women by separatists.
- Censorship in June: A private radio station owned by the former President of the Republican Party was closed by the National Communication Council. The National Communication Council also suspended a journalist’s radio program on accusations of hate speech.
Forecasting
In our last report, our standard models predicted an increase in Non-Lethal Violence in Q3 2023. We did see a smaller increase in Non-Lethal Violence a few months early in Q2 2023. Our updated models are now predicting a much smaller increase in Q3. However, the accuracy of these updated models have fallen below our reporting threshold.
Mozambique
For Mozambique, our data includes coverage through the end of June 2023. Since the data was last updated through March, we saw increases in reporting on:
- Election Activity in April: Many actions were taken to prepare for the elections in 2024. Voter registration, a voter census, and a voter education program were all launched in April. A committee was formed to investigate the ruling parties demand to suspend district elections.
- Troop Mobilization in May: Various actions were taken to increase national security including the arrest of arms dealers near the South African border. A council of Southern African countries agreed on deploying troops in the DRC to help limit terrorism in the eastern part of the country.
- Election Irregularities in May: Mozambique was set to hold its first set of district elections in 2024, however the ruling party posed a constitutional amendment to postpone these elections. The postponement comes after accusations of voter registration fraud and improper infrastructure to hold the elections.
- Protests in June: The Association of Health Professionals of Mozambique called for a health care worker strike to protest low wages and poor working conditions. These strikes were eventually suspended as to not cause harm to the general public. Staff of the Maputo Municipal Council went on strike to protest being paid wages below the legally agreed upon rate.
Forecasting
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Rwanda
For Rwanda, our data includes coverage through the end of June 2023. Since the data was last updated through March, we saw increases in reporting on:
- Arrests in May: The National Prosecutor’s Office arrested the Minister of Sports on suspicion of accepting bribes.
- Legal Action in June: Courts in Malawi, France, the UK, and the Netherlands made rulings on cases involving participants in the Rwandan genocide.
Forecasting
In our last report, our shock models predicted a shock to Purge/Replace in Q3 and Q4 2023. Our updated models are still predicting a spike in Purge/Replace in Q3 2023.
Morocco
For Morocco, our data includes coverage through the end of June 2023. Since the data was last updated through March, we saw increases in reporting on:
- Defamation Cases in April: A former parliamentarian was arrested and charged with insulting a public official.
- Protests in April: Various protests were held throughout the month to voice concerns about the rising prices of consumer goods.
Forecasting
In our last report, our shock models predicted shocks to Corruption in Q2, Civic Activism in Q3, and Legal Changes in Q4. We did not see a shock to Corruption in Q2. Our updated models are still predicting a shock to Civic Activism in Q3 and Q4. For Legal Changes, the accuracy of our updated models have fallen below our reporting threshold.
Tunisia
For Tunisia, our data includes coverage through the end of June 2023. Since the data was last updated through March, we saw increases in reporting on:
- Raids in April: Security forces raided and evacuated the headquarters of an opposition part after the arrest of the party’s leader.
- Legal Action in May: The Tunis Court of Appeal sentenced a journalist to five years imprisonment for disclosing information about the dismantling of a terrorist cell.
- Lethal and Non-Lethal Violence in May: A terrorist attack was carried out on a historic synagogue.
- Political Cooperation in May: National labor organizations initiated a national dialogue on labor issues.
- Censorship in June: Parliament issued a rule change, preventing journalists from covering committee meetings in the House of Peoples’ Representatives.
Forecasting
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan’s results are password protected. Please email for access.