TIMSS: Math Achievement
Introduction
Present research project attempts to investigate math achievement of eight grade russian students by using OLS regression analysis and EFA. There is a total of three predictor variables two of which are associated with the presence of tablets and one indicating the number of books at home. Several control variables are also chosen and included in the regression model. Prior to the model construction, bivariate tests for the variables are conducted alongside the plotting of bivariate distributions. Theoretical background is provided in order to justify the hypotheses. EFA is conducted for the subset that contains variables indicating presence of various objects and possessions of the family of respondents in order to identify latent variables. Factor scores are later added to the final linear predictive model.
Preliminary preparations
The initial dataset contained 4780 observations of 436 variables, with 4517 observations remaining after only 20 variables were chosen for the further analysis and NA were deleted. Only 9 variables were chosen for the OLS regression analysis and re-named in order to make the interpretation easier. Apart from the math achievement which is numeric, all variables are coded as factors.
Descriptive statistics
Math achievement
| vars | n | mean | sd | median | trimmed | mad | min | max | range | skew | kurtosis | se |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4517 | 538.6858 | 79.27568 | 541.0424 | 539.7548 | 81.4219 | 273.0573 | 819.8235 | 546.7662 | -0.1254828 | -0.2051389 | 1.179546 |
The values range from 273.06 to 819.82, with the mean being equal to 538.69. In comparison to the mean math achievement in Singapore (616.5), the mean math achievement in Russia is significantly lower. Similarly to the Singaporean case, median (541.04) is bigger than the mean (538.69) which indicates that the distribution is a bit skewed: there are more observations with high math achievement values. That is also indicated by the negative value of the skew (-0.13). Since the kurtosis is negative, the distribution is platykurtic (-0.21). Apart from that, the distribution looks surprisingly normal and resembles the bell curve.
According to the TIMSS report published on the website for TIMSS and PIRLS International Study center, the average math achievement in Russia was equal to 538 with Russia standing at the top of the rating for non-east-asian countries, but falling behind Japan by 48 points. Since the gap was equal to 31 in 2011, it appears to be widening with Singapore standing at the very top of the overall rating. In comparison to the results of the TIMSS conducted in 2011, math scores of students in Russia didn’t significantly improve and the country was placed in the “Same average achievement” category. When results of TIMSS conducted in 2015 and 1995 were compared, however, Russia was placed in the “Higher average achievement” category.
Predictor variables
Number of books at home
As it was already established by extensive research in the area, academic performance of children is strongly positively correlated with the number of books at one’s home (Evans, Sikora & Kelley, 2014). In general there appears to be two conflicting explanations for such a phenomena. On one hand, “scholarly culture thesis” implies that scholarly culture contributes to the development of cognitive skills of children, their tastes and preferences in such a way it enables them to perform well at school. Children might develop a hobby of reading for pleasure, enrich their vocabulary, develop argumentative and analytical skills through the discussion of what they’ve read with their parents. On the other hand, according to the “elite closure / social reproduction / cultural reproduction” argument, it’s less about children’s skills as they are and more about teachers providing more opportunities to children that signal their high elite/cultural status. However, as it is indicated in the article of Evans, Sikora and Kelley, there is not much empirical evidence in support of this claim and it appears to be the case of reading practices not working in the same way status signals related to art do.
Whether the first or the second argument is applied, higher number of books at home is usually believed to be associated with higher academic performance. Taken as a base for the hypothesis for this study, that would mean that we expect to find a positive correlation between the number of books at home and math achievement of students. However, it has to be mentioned that the number of books is reported by the students themselves and might be different from how it really is.
As observed on the left bar chart, the majority of respondents indicated that they have from 26 to 100 books at home, with 38.8% choosing this option. The second most popular option chosen by the respondents was the “11-25 books” one with 29.4% picking it. Only 6.5% of respondents chose “0-10 books”. While it might be hypothesized that there exists a culture for reading in Russia which results in quite a large share of participants choosing the “26-100 books” option, it also has to be mentioned that eight grade students are most likely unaware of the actual number of books at their home and could simply pick that option as the one being in the middle. If the former is the case, the effect of the number of books at home might be weaker in Russia than it is in countries where people rarely read or buy books. The latter being true would result in that particular level of the factor not contributing to a statistically significant increase in the math scores.
As depicted on the box plot on the right, as one moves along the factor levels of the “books” variable indicating higher number of books at home, the median math scores keep rising for the first four levels. The median math score of those, who indicated that there are more than 200 books in their home seems to be a bit lower than that of respondents with 101-200 books at home. A table with descriptive statistics for each of the “books” factor levels in terms of math achievement is presented below to check what the precise difference between their mean and median scores is. As it can be already seen, the data supports the hypothesis since the median math score rises with the number of books at home. Further in the regression we would expect to see the increase in the number of books at home being associated in the increase in the predicted math achievement score.
| Books | vars | n | mean | sd | median | trimmed | mad | min | max | range | skew | kurtosis | se |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 books | 1 | 294 | 514.1171 | 86.21753 | 517.1523 | 514.4245 | 94.63953 | 273.0573 | 719.3618 | 446.3045 | -0.0858379 | -0.4653014 | 5.028308 |
| 11–25 books | 1 | 1330 | 525.0976 | 77.81189 | 529.4087 | 526.1386 | 80.78908 | 282.6379 | 732.3903 | 449.7524 | -0.1375348 | -0.3035723 | 2.133635 |
| 26–100 books | 1 | 1751 | 541.2183 | 76.57222 | 541.1637 | 541.5559 | 78.12570 | 308.1848 | 777.5889 | 469.4041 | -0.0297452 | -0.2491015 | 1.829903 |
| 101–200 books | 1 | 707 | 557.1524 | 79.39983 | 563.6180 | 559.2957 | 76.77207 | 307.1516 | 819.8235 | 512.6719 | -0.2368695 | 0.1062879 | 2.986138 |
| More than 200 | 1 | 435 | 556.6290 | 77.84036 | 560.6942 | 558.7776 | 76.31691 | 312.7139 | 756.8425 | 444.1286 | -0.2420404 | -0.1728280 | 3.732159 |
Both mean and median math achievement scores of those with more than 200 books at home are a bit lower than those of respondents with 101-200 books at home. Apart from such an unexpected drop, there is a general upward trend observed. All distributions have a negative skew indicating that there are more high math achievement scores on each of the levels. Only the distribution of math achievement scores on the “101 - 200” books level is characterized by a positive kurtosis indicating that the distribution is leptokurtic. In order to check if the difference in math achievement scores in statistically significant for these levels ANOVA is performed.
## Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)
## data1$books 4 815416 203854 33.37 <2e-16 ***
## Residuals 4512 27565991 6109
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
P-value < .001 (<2e-16) means that the null hypothesis should be rejected (the probability to obtain such data that we have if H0 was true for the population is low), thus, the difference in the math scores across five groups accordingly to the number of books at home is statistically significant.
Personal tablet
There exists a debate on whether the usage of tablet computers does increase students performance or, on the contrary, has a negative effect on it. Supporters of the former claim that by using tablets in classroom teachers can encourage active participation during the class which, in turn, results in better students performance (Enriquez, 2010). On the other hand, the problem of information overload might lead to the students not being able to concentrate on particular information presented to them because multiple stimulus results in inability to focus and memorize (McEwen & Dubé, 2015). The topic is rather controversial and empirical evidence in support of both arguments is found.
In addition, the question that was used for the TIMSS itself does not specify whether the tablet one has is used for mainly educational purposes. Therefore, three hypotheses can be formulated.
If a tablet is mostly used not for educational purposes, the presence of a tablet in use is associated with lower math achievement scores. This could be explained by children being distracted by the tablet and most likely wasting a large amount of time on leisure activities instead of focusing on studying.
If a tablet is mostly used for studying, the presence of a tablet in use is associated with higher math achievement scores. This can be explained by the learning becoming more interactive and multiple stimulus being used to help children learn.
If a tablet is mostly used for studying, the presence of a tablet in use is associated with lower math achievement scores. This can be explained by the overload problem.
There was a striking imbalance in terms of the share of those respondents who did have a personal tablet and those who didn’t: the latter only accounted for 15.1%. However, the median math achievement score was higher for those respondents with no tablet in personal use.
| Selftab | vars | n | mean | sd | median | trimmed | mad | min | max | range | skew | kurtosis | se |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1 | 3835 | 536.8037 | 78.49988 | 538.6908 | 537.8300 | 80.51024 | 273.0573 | 819.8235 | 546.7662 | -0.1201961 | -0.1856804 | 1.267612 |
| No | 1 | 682 | 549.2690 | 82.76995 | 556.1940 | 550.8288 | 83.98118 | 310.6374 | 762.4422 | 451.8048 | -0.1937453 | -0.2936750 | 3.169425 |
As can be seen in the descriptive table, the median math score of those with no personal tablet is equal to 556.1940 and is bigger than that on those with a personal tablet (538.6908). Similarly, the mean math achievement is higher for those with no tablet: 549.2690 > 536.8037. Distribution is skewed and platykurtic in both cases. This supports either the first or the third hypothesis since it is still unknown what is the main purpose of use of a tablet is for each of the respondents.
Since there are only two groups, we can carry out the T-test instead of performing the ANOVA in order to check whether the difference in mean math scores for these two groups is statistically significant.
One of the assumptions we have to check before carrying out the test itself is the homogeneity of variances. The two hypothesis would be:
- H0: Variances do not differ.
- H1: Variances differ.
##
## F test to compare two variances
##
## data: as.numeric(data1$math) by data1$selftab
## F = 0.89948, num df = 3834, denom df = 681, p-value = 0.06621
## alternative hypothesis: true ratio of variances is not equal to 1
## 95 percent confidence interval:
## 0.7996111 1.0070762
## sample estimates:
## ratio of variances
## 0.8994823
As we can see, the p-value is bigger than 0.05 (0.06621 > 0.05). Therefore, we don’t have enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis and conclude that variances do not differ. We also indicate it in the T-test function in what follows.
Hypotheses for the test itself:
- H0: In population, two means of two groups DO NOT differ.
- H1: In population, two means of two groups DO differ.
##
## Two Sample t-test
##
## data: as.numeric(data1$math) by data1$selftab
## t = -3.7892, df = 4515, p-value = 0.0001531
## alternative hypothesis: true difference in means between group Yes and group No is not equal to 0
## 95 percent confidence interval:
## -18.914574 -6.015952
## sample estimates:
## mean in group Yes mean in group No
## 536.8037 549.2690
Since the p-value is small (0.0001531 < 0.05) the null hypothesis shall be rejected (because the probability to get the result we have if H0 was true is very low). Therefore, we conclude that the difference between mean math score of these two groups is statistically significant.
Control variables
Several control variables were also added to the regression equation since we might suspect that they effect either predictor variables, outcome variable or both and want to remove their effects from the equation. This is also done to improve interpretation which might be confusing in case of, for instance, Simpson’s paradox where the overall trend is the opposite of trends in individual groups. Control variables include gender, parental education and country of origin.
Gender
Unlike two previous variables, the sample is balanced in terms of gender of the respondents: there are only sligthly more boys in it (51.8 > 48.2). Judjuing by the boxplot on the right, median math score seems to be slightly higher for boys.
| Gender | vars | n | mean | sd | median | trimmed | mad | min | max | range | skew | kurtosis | se |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girl | 1 | 2179 | 535.7442 | 79.73808 | 538.5804 | 536.9520 | 79.94751 | 273.0573 | 819.8235 | 546.7662 | -0.1407540 | -0.1532673 | 1.708194 |
| Boy | 1 | 2338 | 541.4274 | 78.76046 | 542.8349 | 542.3563 | 82.14488 | 307.1516 | 786.5518 | 479.4002 | -0.1084828 | -0.2654966 | 1.628868 |
We find the precise median math score values in the table above: median math scores of boys are, in fact, higher (542.8349 > 538.5804). The same goes for the mean values: 541.4274 > 535.7442. Both distributions are skewed and platykurtic.
The difference in mean math scores seems to be quite small and has to be tested in order to find if it’s actually statistically significant or not.
One of the assumptions we have to check before carrying out the test itself is the homogeneity of variances. The two hypothesis would be:
- H0: Variances do not differ.
- H1: Variances differ.
##
## F test to compare two variances
##
## data: as.numeric(data1$math) by data1$gender
## F = 1.025, num df = 2178, denom df = 2337, p-value = 0.5577
## alternative hypothesis: true ratio of variances is not equal to 1
## 95 percent confidence interval:
## 0.9438002 1.1132763
## sample estimates:
## ratio of variances
## 1.024979
As we can see, the p-value is equal to 0.5577 and exceeds the significance level of 0.05. In other words, there is not enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis and we conclude that variance don’t differ.
Hypotheses for the test itself:
- H0: In population, two means of two gender groups DO NOT differ.
- H1: In population, two means of two gender groups DO differ.
##
## Two Sample t-test
##
## data: as.numeric(data1$math) by data1$gender
## t = -2.4089, df = 4515, p-value = 0.01604
## alternative hypothesis: true difference in means between group Girl and group Boy is not equal to 0
## 95 percent confidence interval:
## -10.308599 -1.057829
## sample estimates:
## mean in group Girl mean in group Boy
## 535.7442 541.4274
Since the p-value is small (0.01604 < 0.05) the null hypothesis shall be rejected (because the probability to get the result we have if H0 was true is very low). Therefore, we conclude that the difference between mean math scores of two gender groups is statistically significant.
Country
The imbalance in the sample for the country variable is quite apparent: only 3.3% of the respondents weren’t born in Russia. Their median math achievement score appears to be slightly lower than that of respondents born in Russia.
| Country | vars | n | mean | sd | median | trimmed | mad | min | max | range | skew | kurtosis | se |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Born in Russia | 1 | 4368 | 538.8316 | 79.27657 | 541.2203 | 539.9625 | 81.70736 | 273.0573 | 819.8235 | 546.7662 | -0.1321644 | -0.2125026 | 1.199509 |
| Born not in Russia | 1 | 149 | 534.4124 | 79.39743 | 531.1304 | 533.7157 | 74.30472 | 311.9141 | 735.0309 | 423.1168 | 0.0697964 | 0.0141724 | 6.504491 |
Apart from the difference in median math achievement score (541.2203 > 531.1304), the difference in means is also present with it being smaller among respondents born not in Russia (538.8316 > 534.4124). Even though both distributions are skewed, there are more respondents with lower math achievement scores among those born not in Russia and the distribution is leptokurtic.
In order to check whether the difference in mean math achievement scores among these two groups is significant, T-test is carried out.
##
## F test to compare two variances
##
## data: as.numeric(data1$math) by data1$country
## F = 0.99696, num df = 4367, denom df = 148, p-value = 0.9501
## alternative hypothesis: true ratio of variances is not equal to 1
## 95 percent confidence interval:
## 0.7801853 1.2418778
## sample estimates:
## ratio of variances
## 0.9969578
As we can see, the p-value is equal to 0.9501 and exceeds the significance level of 0.05. In other words, there is not enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis and we conclude that variance don’t differ.
##
## Two Sample t-test
##
## data: as.numeric(data1$math) by data1$country
## t = 0.6691, df = 4515, p-value = 0.5035
## alternative hypothesis: true difference in means between group Yes and group No is not equal to 0
## 95 percent confidence interval:
## -8.529349 17.367784
## sample estimates:
## mean in group Yes mean in group No
## 538.8316 534.4124
Since the p-value is big (0.5035 > 0.05) the null hypothesis cannot be rejected. Therefore, we conclude that the difference between means of these two groups is not statistically significant.
The results of the test may be questionable because of the striking imbalance in the dataset. In order to solve this problem, oversampling and undersampling are performed at the same time to make the number of respondents in each group nearly equal.
## 'data.frame': 4517 obs. of 2 variables:
## $ math : num 570 506 523 433 389 ...
## $ country: Factor w/ 2 levels "Yes","No": 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
## [1] 0.03411172
##
## F test to compare two variances
##
## data: as.numeric(newdata1$math) by newdata1$country
## F = 0.95326, num df = 2233, denom df = 2282, p-value = 0.2557
## alternative hypothesis: true ratio of variances is not equal to 1
## 95 percent confidence interval:
## 0.8777629 1.0352848
## sample estimates:
## ratio of variances
## 0.9532579
##
## Two Sample t-test
##
## data: as.numeric(newdata1$math) by newdata1$country
## t = 2.6637, df = 4515, p-value = 0.007757
## alternative hypothesis: true difference in means between group Yes and group No is not equal to 0
## 95 percent confidence interval:
## 1.714889 11.277485
## sample estimates:
## mean in group Yes mean in group No
## 539.0832 532.5870
Unfortunately, since p-value is still bigger than the significance level (0.1232 > 0.05), we have to admit that the initial conclusion was correct and the difference between means of these two groups is not statistically significant.
Parental education
Interestingly, while the largest share of respondents reported not knowing their father’s education (28.6%) the share of respondents who didn’t know their mother’s education was lower than the share of those who indicated it to be a Bacherlor’s or equivalent (25.7% > 15%). ‘Bacherlor’s or equivalent’ was the second most common option for the variable indicating father’s education (17.2%). The third most popular category was the ‘Post-secondary, non-tertiary’ option for both father’s and mother’s education. Shares of respondents reporting their parent’s only having some primary or lower secondary education were extremely small (0.2% and 0.5%).
In terms of the box plots, the general trend seems to be similar in both cases of parental education. While the general trend seems to be upward with median math achievement score rising as parental education gets to higher levels, median math achievement score of respondents who reported their parents having some primary or lower secondary education was higher that the median math score of respondents with parents who obtained a lower secondary education. Median math score of those who didn’t know the education of their parents was one of the lowest: we can hypothesize that there is a possibility of students whose parents have lower education preferring to say that thay don’t know what the education of their parents is. If, in fact, their parents can be ascribed to the “some primary or lower secondary education” category, that would drive the median score of the latter lower, making the general trend easier to understand.
| Ed | vars | n | mean | sd | median | trimmed | mad | min | max | range | skew | kurtosis | se |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Some Primary or Lower secondary or did not go to school | 1 | 7 | 514.6946 | 108.48242 | 531.9383 | 514.6946 | 92.54371 | 312.7139 | 646.6540 | 333.9401 | -0.6074477 | -0.9160710 | 41.002499 |
| Lower secondary | 1 | 492 | 504.5873 | 80.98609 | 504.2409 | 504.0263 | 84.59516 | 309.9401 | 739.5915 | 429.6514 | 0.0603578 | -0.3713925 | 3.651135 |
| Upper secondary | 1 | 604 | 507.0375 | 78.95424 | 502.2818 | 505.3105 | 83.71570 | 282.6379 | 735.4748 | 452.8369 | 0.1954891 | -0.3887144 | 3.212602 |
| Post-secondary, non-tertiary | 1 | 678 | 548.0093 | 73.00858 | 548.8516 | 549.0753 | 73.64548 | 310.6374 | 738.3907 | 427.7533 | -0.1417502 | -0.3116524 | 2.803878 |
| Short-cycle tertiary | 1 | 432 | 546.0860 | 73.69947 | 548.6751 | 547.6520 | 71.25224 | 306.9265 | 762.4422 | 455.5158 | -0.2163085 | 0.0845101 | 3.545867 |
| Bachelor’s or equivalent | 1 | 1160 | 558.6289 | 71.92260 | 560.3628 | 559.6322 | 71.76946 | 340.1206 | 819.8235 | 479.7029 | -0.0714999 | 0.0353499 | 2.111720 |
| Postgraduate degree | 1 | 466 | 569.1063 | 81.17303 | 575.1782 | 570.9561 | 83.82083 | 307.1516 | 767.6349 | 460.4833 | -0.2688936 | -0.0790803 | 3.760268 |
| Don’t know | 1 | 678 | 522.8036 | 76.82149 | 528.0815 | 524.4496 | 76.06783 | 273.0573 | 705.8814 | 432.8241 | -0.2251237 | -0.2154175 | 2.950312 |
Descriptive statistics are summarized in the table above. In order to check whether the difference in math acievement scores for different levels of parental education is statisctially significant, we proceed to ANOVA.
## Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)
## data1$edmother 7 2327279 332468 57.54 <2e-16 ***
## Residuals 4509 26054127 5778
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)
## data1$edfather 7 1921077 274440 46.77 <2e-16 ***
## Residuals 4509 26460330 5868
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
In both cases P-value < .001 (<2e-16) means that the null hypothesis should be rejected (the probability to obtain such data that we have if H0 was true for the population is low), thus, the difference in math scores across different levels of education of parents is statistically significant.
Another bivariate distribution of interest in this case is the distribution of the number of books for each of the education levels. We can suspect that higher levels of parental education are associated with a bigger number of books at home in both cases. Firstly, we take a look at distributions for mother’s education.
What’s striking about the lowest possible educational level, “some primary or lower secondary education”, is that the share of respondents reporting having more than 200 books at home is the highest in comparison to other educational levels (28.6%). However, we need to keep in mind that there were only a few respondents reporting this level of their mother’s education and the results are not that reliable. Apart from this level, the share of respondents reporting having more than 200 books at home was steadily increasing with higher levels of mother’s education. At the same time share of respondents reporting having less than 10 books declines. Shares of respondents reporting remaining three categories slightly fluctuated.
Since in this case we are dealing with two categorical variables, Chi-squared test has to be performed instead of T-test.
| 0–10 books | 11–25 books | 26–100 books | 101–200 books | More than 200 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Some Primary or Lower secondary or did not go to school | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Lower secondary | 76 | 204 | 161 | 38 | 13 |
| Upper secondary | 56 | 245 | 207 | 65 | 31 |
| Post-secondary, non-tertiary | 38 | 199 | 305 | 98 | 38 |
| Short-cycle tertiary | 21 | 130 | 164 | 67 | 50 |
| Bachelor’s or equivalent | 31 | 253 | 475 | 243 | 158 |
| Postgraduate degree | 12 | 75 | 190 | 91 | 98 |
| Don’t know | 57 | 222 | 249 | 105 | 45 |
##
## Pearson's Chi-squared test
##
## data: ct
## X-squared = 446.31, df = 28, p-value < 2.2e-16
We obtained the Chi-square statistic of 446.31 and a p-value equal to 2.2e-16 having the degree of freedom 28. P-value is a lot smaller than the significance level of 0.05, meaning that the probability to obtain the observed, or more extreme, results if the null hypothesis is true (variables are independent) is extremely low. Therefore we conclude that variables are not independent: the education level of respondent’s mother and the number of books at home are not independent.
Now we proceed to go through the same steps for father’s education. Table with descriptive statistics is presented below.
| Ed | vars | n | mean | sd | median | trimmed | mad | min | max | range | skew | kurtosis | se |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Some Primary or Lower secondary or did not go to school | 1 | 23 | 523.0153 | 108.35070 | 536.7389 | 527.4363 | 94.83894 | 311.9141 | 719.3618 | 407.4476 | -0.3755879 | -0.6718116 | 22.592683 |
| Lower secondary | 1 | 466 | 505.9230 | 79.25411 | 505.8465 | 506.3999 | 79.21341 | 282.6379 | 739.5915 | 456.9536 | -0.0212454 | -0.2419399 | 3.671376 |
| Upper secondary | 1 | 518 | 516.9538 | 77.15240 | 513.3934 | 515.7255 | 84.36265 | 313.0166 | 762.4422 | 449.4257 | 0.1445043 | -0.3873860 | 3.389882 |
| Post-secondary, non-tertiary | 1 | 709 | 548.2601 | 74.98492 | 549.5374 | 549.5523 | 77.16401 | 309.3283 | 777.5889 | 468.2606 | -0.1401615 | -0.2864373 | 2.816118 |
| Short-cycle tertiary | 1 | 385 | 547.1812 | 72.79266 | 550.2453 | 547.8284 | 73.48339 | 358.8245 | 739.9707 | 381.1462 | -0.0793597 | -0.3823686 | 3.709857 |
| Bachelor’s or equivalent | 1 | 779 | 562.0063 | 73.61017 | 565.4501 | 562.5096 | 70.62829 | 358.2006 | 819.8235 | 461.6229 | -0.0162757 | 0.0524767 | 2.637358 |
| Postgraduate degree | 1 | 345 | 576.5189 | 76.28275 | 587.9637 | 579.7077 | 71.07793 | 307.1516 | 756.8425 | 449.6909 | -0.5120903 | 0.4204483 | 4.106925 |
| Don’t know | 1 | 1292 | 527.5458 | 78.57615 | 531.6270 | 528.5375 | 79.86980 | 273.0573 | 738.3907 | 465.3334 | -0.1461551 | -0.2362484 | 2.186047 |
The problem with the “some primary or lower secondary education” level that was observed in case of mother’s education does not appear to be present here, however, the share of respondent claiming they have more than 200 books at home for that level is still bigger than the same share for the “lower secondary” level (8.7% > 4.7%). Apart from that the trend in shares of respondents saying they have more than 200 books at home seems to be upward and stable, while the trend for shares of respondents reporting having less than 10 books at home is downward.
| 0–10 books | 11–25 books | 26–100 books | 101–200 books | More than 200 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Some Primary or Lower secondary or did not go to school | 8 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 2 |
| Lower secondary | 47 | 200 | 160 | 37 | 22 |
| Upper secondary | 47 | 201 | 184 | 56 | 30 |
| Post-secondary, non-tertiary | 34 | 217 | 314 | 97 | 47 |
| Short-cycle tertiary | 18 | 100 | 157 | 68 | 42 |
| Bachelor’s or equivalent | 23 | 156 | 314 | 163 | 123 |
| Postgraduate degree | 9 | 44 | 132 | 89 | 71 |
| Don’t know | 108 | 405 | 485 | 196 | 98 |
##
## Pearson's Chi-squared test
##
## data: ct
## X-squared = 366.99, df = 28, p-value < 2.2e-16
Just as it was with mother’s education p-value is smaller than 0.05 and we conclude that the education level of respondent’s father and the number of books at home are not independent.
Summary
Higher math achievement scores are observed for factor levels indicating a bigger number of books at home with an exception of the very last level “more than 200” mean math achievement score of which is slightly lower than that of “101-200” books level. The difference in math achievement between these groups is statistically significant.
Higher math achievement scores are observed in a group of students who indicated not having a personal tablet while the situation was the opposite for the presence of a shared tablet: higher math achievement values were observed when students had a shared tablet. The difference in math achievement between the first two and the second two groups is statistically significant.
Higher math achievement scores are observed for boys and the gender difference in math achievement scores is statistically significant.
Higher math achievement scores are observed among students who were born in Russia. However, the difference in math achievement between two groups (born in Russia and born not in Russia) is not statistically significant and does not change after the oversampling and undersampling are applied.
Except for some ambiguity in case of the “Don’t know” level, higher math achievement scores are observed for students whose parents have obtained higher levels of education. The difference in math achievement scores is statistically significant for both father’s and mother’s educational levels. Additionally, it was shown that a larger number of books at home was observed in families where parents have obtained higher levels of education. The number of books and home and parental education was proven to be not independent.
Models
No interaction
For the sake of experiment we can compare two models based solely on the number of books at home and presence of either personal or shared tablet. Since models are not nested, we have to use AIC instead of ANOVA.
| math | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | p |
| (Intercept) | 514.12 | 505.18 – 523.05 | <0.001 |
| books [11–25 books] | 10.98 | 1.10 – 20.86 | 0.029 |
| books [26–100 books] | 27.10 | 17.44 – 36.76 | <0.001 |
| books [101–200 books] | 43.04 | 32.40 – 53.67 | <0.001 |
| books [More than 200] | 42.51 | 30.94 – 54.08 | <0.001 |
| Observations | 4517 | ||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.029 / 0.028 | ||
| math | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | p |
| (Intercept) | 540.88 | 538.18 – 543.58 | <0.001 |
| selftab [No] | 11.68 | 5.27 – 18.09 | <0.001 |
| sharedtab [No] | -24.36 | -30.59 – -18.14 | <0.001 |
| Observations | 4517 | ||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.016 / 0.016 | ||
## [1] 52203.08
## [1] 52257.89
AIC of the first model appears to be lower 52203.08 > 52257.89 and we conclude that it is better. Additionally, it explains slightly more variance in the outcome variable (0.02787 > 0.01557) while both models are better than no model at all, judjing by the p-value being less than 0.05.
We then proceed to include control variables in the equation and test whether the addition of two tablet predictor variables improves the model that is focused on the number of books at home only.
| math | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | p |
| (Intercept) | 501.51 | 442.64 – 560.39 | <0.001 |
| books [11–25 books] | 5.03 | -4.54 – 14.59 | 0.303 |
| books [26–100 books] | 13.08 | 3.61 – 22.54 | 0.007 |
| books [101–200 books] | 24.21 | 13.72 – 34.69 | <0.001 |
| books [More than 200] | 19.25 | 7.77 – 30.74 | 0.001 |
| gender [Boy] | 6.83 | 2.39 – 11.27 | 0.003 |
| country [No] | 1.53 | -10.82 – 13.87 | 0.809 |
|
edmother [Lower secondary] |
1.95 | -55.76 – 59.65 | 0.947 |
|
edmother [Upper secondary] |
0.29 | -57.49 – 58.06 | 0.992 |
|
edmother [Post-secondary, non-tertiary] |
32.39 | -25.42 – 90.20 | 0.272 |
|
edmother [Short-cycle tertiary] |
29.32 | -28.57 – 87.22 | 0.321 |
|
edmother [Bachelor’s or equivalent] |
36.03 | -21.65 – 93.70 | 0.221 |
|
edmother [Postgraduate degree] |
40.91 | -16.90 – 98.72 | 0.165 |
| edmother [Don’t know] | 11.83 | -46.00 – 69.67 | 0.688 |
|
edfather [Lower secondary] |
-20.85 | -53.28 – 11.58 | 0.208 |
|
edfather [Upper secondary] |
-10.91 | -43.40 – 21.57 | 0.510 |
|
edfather [Post-secondary, non-tertiary] |
2.77 | -29.68 – 35.22 | 0.867 |
|
edfather [Short-cycle tertiary] |
0.51 | -32.29 – 33.31 | 0.976 |
|
edfather [Bachelor’s or equivalent] |
10.28 | -22.20 – 42.76 | 0.535 |
|
edfather [Postgraduate degree] |
18.79 | -14.29 – 51.87 | 0.265 |
| edfather [Don’t know] | -7.19 | -39.42 – 25.04 | 0.662 |
| Observations | 4517 | ||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.106 / 0.102 | ||
| math | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | p |
| (Intercept) | 502.65 | 444.03 – 561.27 | <0.001 |
| books [11–25 books] | 5.25 | -4.27 – 14.76 | 0.279 |
| books [26–100 books] | 12.83 | 3.41 – 22.25 | 0.008 |
| books [101–200 books] | 23.69 | 13.26 – 34.13 | <0.001 |
| books [More than 200] | 18.67 | 7.24 – 30.10 | 0.001 |
| selftab [No] | 14.11 | 8.00 – 20.23 | <0.001 |
| sharedtab [No] | -18.65 | -24.61 – -12.69 | <0.001 |
| gender [Boy] | 8.30 | 3.87 – 12.73 | <0.001 |
| country [No] | -0.31 | -12.58 – 11.96 | 0.961 |
|
edmother [Lower secondary] |
-1.62 | -58.97 – 55.73 | 0.956 |
|
edmother [Upper secondary] |
-3.35 | -60.78 – 54.08 | 0.909 |
|
edmother [Post-secondary, non-tertiary] |
27.96 | -29.50 – 85.43 | 0.340 |
|
edmother [Short-cycle tertiary] |
25.48 | -32.06 – 83.03 | 0.385 |
|
edmother [Bachelor’s or equivalent] |
31.32 | -26.02 – 88.65 | 0.284 |
|
edmother [Postgraduate degree] |
36.28 | -21.19 – 93.76 | 0.216 |
| edmother [Don’t know] | 7.96 | -49.52 – 65.45 | 0.786 |
|
edfather [Lower secondary] |
-17.36 | -49.60 – 14.88 | 0.291 |
|
edfather [Upper secondary] |
-8.09 | -40.39 – 24.20 | 0.623 |
|
edfather [Post-secondary, non-tertiary] |
6.10 | -26.17 – 38.36 | 0.711 |
|
edfather [Short-cycle tertiary] |
3.43 | -29.17 – 36.04 | 0.837 |
|
edfather [Bachelor’s or equivalent] |
13.98 | -18.31 – 46.27 | 0.396 |
|
edfather [Postgraduate degree] |
21.73 | -11.15 – 54.61 | 0.195 |
| edfather [Don’t know] | -3.40 | -35.44 – 28.64 | 0.835 |
| Observations | 4517 | ||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.118 / 0.114 | ||
## Analysis of Variance Table
##
## Model 1: math ~ books + gender + country + edmother + edfather
## Model 2: math ~ books + selftab + sharedtab + gender + country + edmother +
## edfather
## Res.Df RSS Df Sum of Sq F Pr(>F)
## 1 4496 25361460
## 2 4494 25028212 2 333248 29.919 1.237e-13 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Since P-value is small (1.237e-13) we conclude that the additon of two new predictors did improve the model. The final model includes both the number of books and presence of shared or personal tablet as well as control variables.
| math | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | p |
| (Intercept) | 502.65 | 444.03 – 561.27 | <0.001 |
| books [11–25 books] | 5.25 | -4.27 – 14.76 | 0.279 |
| books [26–100 books] | 12.83 | 3.41 – 22.25 | 0.008 |
| books [101–200 books] | 23.69 | 13.26 – 34.13 | <0.001 |
| books [More than 200] | 18.67 | 7.24 – 30.10 | 0.001 |
| selftab [No] | 14.11 | 8.00 – 20.23 | <0.001 |
| sharedtab [No] | -18.65 | -24.61 – -12.69 | <0.001 |
| gender [Boy] | 8.30 | 3.87 – 12.73 | <0.001 |
| country [No] | -0.31 | -12.58 – 11.96 | 0.961 |
|
edmother [Lower secondary] |
-1.62 | -58.97 – 55.73 | 0.956 |
|
edmother [Upper secondary] |
-3.35 | -60.78 – 54.08 | 0.909 |
|
edmother [Post-secondary, non-tertiary] |
27.96 | -29.50 – 85.43 | 0.340 |
|
edmother [Short-cycle tertiary] |
25.48 | -32.06 – 83.03 | 0.385 |
|
edmother [Bachelor’s or equivalent] |
31.32 | -26.02 – 88.65 | 0.284 |
|
edmother [Postgraduate degree] |
36.28 | -21.19 – 93.76 | 0.216 |
| edmother [Don’t know] | 7.96 | -49.52 – 65.45 | 0.786 |
|
edfather [Lower secondary] |
-17.36 | -49.60 – 14.88 | 0.291 |
|
edfather [Upper secondary] |
-8.09 | -40.39 – 24.20 | 0.623 |
|
edfather [Post-secondary, non-tertiary] |
6.10 | -26.17 – 38.36 | 0.711 |
|
edfather [Short-cycle tertiary] |
3.43 | -29.17 – 36.04 | 0.837 |
|
edfather [Bachelor’s or equivalent] |
13.98 | -18.31 – 46.27 | 0.396 |
|
edfather [Postgraduate degree] |
21.73 | -11.15 – 54.61 | 0.195 |
| edfather [Don’t know] | -3.40 | -35.44 – 28.64 | 0.835 |
| Observations | 4517 | ||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.118 / 0.114 | ||
The final model appears to be better than no model at all (p-value: < 2.2e-16) and explains 11% of the variance in the outcome variable. Three factor levels of the number of books at home (base level excluded) were coded as statistically significant, while none of the parental education variables were. Gender and both tablet variables were found to be statistically significant, while country of origin wasn’t.
While the regression equation would look a bit confusing with that many variables, the interpretation can be presented as:
When all variables are equal to 0 (meaning that respondent is a girl, has a personal tablet and a shared tablet, was born in Russia, has less than 10 books at home and both parents obtained a “some primary or lower secondary education” education) the predicted math score is equal to 502.6493.
The increase of the predicted math score in comparison to the base category of books (less than 10 books at home) is getting bigger as we move to levels indicating larger numbers of books at home, however, an increase associated with “More than 200” level is smaller than that of “101–200 books” (18.6710 < 23.6901).
If respondent doesn’t have a personal tablet, the predicted math score is higher by 14.1105.
If respondent doesn’t have a shared tablet, the predicted math score is lower by 18.6497.
If respondent is a boy, the predicted math score is higher by 8.3003.
If respondent wasn’t born in Russia, the predicted math score is lower by 0.3096.
Starting from the “Post-secondary, non-tertiary” change in the education level of mother and father is associated with an increase in the predicted math score. Increase attributed to the “Short-cycle tertiary” is lower than that of “Post-secondary, non-tertiary” and “Bachelor’s or equivalent” in both cases. While in case of mother’s education by ascribing to the “Don’t know” category” increases the predicted math score (7.9611), for father’s education it actually decreases it (-3.3976).
The findings are consistent with the hypothesis presented above: presence of a personal tablet is associated with a decrease in predicted math achievement score, presence of a shared tablet is associated with an increase in predicted math achievement score, increase in the number of books at home is associated with an increase in the predicted math achievement score.
Interaction
We now proceed to add a new variable as an interaction term, but before doing so, we need to take a closer look at it. The variable we want to include it’s respondents own educational aspirations, namely, the level of education he or she is planning to obtain. The reason behind the addition of this variable is the following: we add personal educational aspirations of a student as an interaction term to the varible indicating the number of books at home. We might hypothesize that the effect of the number of books at home on the math achievement will be different for different levels of educational aspiration: high educational aspirations (and willingness to work to achieve one’s goal) might compensate for the lack of either abilities or opportunities priveded by teachers at school that a small number of books at home led to.
The largest share of respondents stated that they want to obtain a Bachelor’s degree (36.7%), followed by the 19.8% of respondents claiming that they want to obtain a postgraduate degree. The general trend with the median math achievement was upward: the higher were the educational aspirations of respondents, the higher were their median math achievement score. That is also demonstrated in the descriptive table below.
| Ed | vars | n | mean | sd | median | trimmed | mad | min | max | range | skew | kurtosis | se |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finish Lower secondary | 1 | 872 | 485.3189 | 78.03657 | 479.1925 | 483.7742 | 81.99048 | 273.0573 | 697.0503 | 423.9930 | 0.1549919 | -0.4530134 | 2.642652 |
| Finish Upper secondary | 1 | 354 | 505.7826 | 71.45162 | 506.2134 | 505.5721 | 69.58748 | 282.6379 | 739.5915 | 456.9536 | 0.0251689 | 0.0432201 | 3.797611 |
| Finish Post-secondary, non-tertiary | 1 | 737 | 528.7562 | 72.55027 | 532.5299 | 530.0173 | 77.71502 | 307.1516 | 708.8806 | 401.7290 | -0.1766014 | -0.3357636 | 2.672423 |
| Finish Bachelor’s or equivalent | 1 | 1658 | 557.9863 | 68.93484 | 558.3862 | 558.1474 | 67.86502 | 323.8450 | 819.8235 | 495.9785 | -0.0060154 | 0.0352018 | 1.692959 |
| Finish Postgraduate degree | 1 | 896 | 576.0760 | 72.60047 | 578.2024 | 577.3281 | 71.98893 | 353.2630 | 786.5518 | 433.2887 | -0.1527531 | -0.2237756 | 2.425411 |
Finally, we can perform ANOVA to check if the difference in math scores for these groups is statistically significant.
## Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)
## data1$futureed 4 4809646 1202412 230.2 <2e-16 ***
## Residuals 4512 23571760 5224
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Since P-value < .001 (<2e-16), we conlude that the difference in math scores across different levels of educational aspiration is statistically significant.
| math | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | p |
| (Intercept) | 487.51 | 431.25 – 543.77 | <0.001 |
| books [11–25 books] | 1.37 | -13.60 – 16.34 | 0.858 |
| books [26–100 books] | 7.19 | -8.25 – 22.64 | 0.361 |
| books [101–200 books] | -8.01 | -28.33 – 12.31 | 0.440 |
| books [More than 200] | -2.32 | -27.57 – 22.92 | 0.857 |
|
futureed [Finish Upper secondary] |
16.49 | -12.56 – 45.53 | 0.266 |
|
futureed [Finish Post-secondary, non-tertiary] |
47.19 | 23.01 – 71.37 | <0.001 |
|
futureed [Finish Bachelor’s or equivalent] |
55.51 | 33.99 – 77.04 | <0.001 |
|
futureed [Finish Postgraduate degree] |
54.55 | 26.88 – 82.23 | <0.001 |
| selftab [No] | 12.08 | 6.23 – 17.92 | <0.001 |
| sharedtab [No] | -15.49 | -21.19 – -9.79 | <0.001 |
| gender [Boy] | 13.04 | 8.78 – 17.30 | <0.001 |
| country [No] | -3.20 | -14.91 – 8.52 | 0.593 |
|
edmother [Lower secondary] |
-4.80 | -59.81 – 50.22 | 0.864 |
|
edmother [Upper secondary] |
-7.90 | -63.01 – 47.22 | 0.779 |
|
edmother [Post-secondary, non-tertiary] |
8.29 | -46.88 – 63.45 | 0.768 |
|
edmother [Short-cycle tertiary] |
5.25 | -49.97 – 60.47 | 0.852 |
|
edmother [Bachelor’s or equivalent] |
5.05 | -49.99 – 60.10 | 0.857 |
|
edmother [Postgraduate degree] |
5.40 | -49.84 – 60.64 | 0.848 |
| edmother [Don’t know] | -2.96 | -58.12 – 52.21 | 0.916 |
|
edfather [Lower secondary] |
-13.98 | -44.77 – 16.81 | 0.373 |
|
edfather [Upper secondary] |
-9.64 | -40.50 – 21.22 | 0.540 |
|
edfather [Post-secondary, non-tertiary] |
-3.03 | -33.88 – 27.81 | 0.847 |
|
edfather [Short-cycle tertiary] |
-4.74 | -35.88 – 26.41 | 0.766 |
|
edfather [Bachelor’s or equivalent] |
0.92 | -29.94 – 31.77 | 0.954 |
|
edfather [Postgraduate degree] |
4.71 | -26.73 – 36.15 | 0.769 |
| edfather [Don’t know] | -6.35 | -36.96 – 24.26 | 0.684 |
|
books [11–25 books] × futureed [Finish Upper secondary] |
5.49 | -26.83 – 37.81 | 0.739 |
|
books [26–100 books] × futureed [Finish Upper secondary] |
0.37 | -32.23 – 32.97 | 0.982 |
|
books [101–200 books] × futureed [Finish Upper secondary] |
22.97 | -16.27 – 62.22 | 0.251 |
|
books [More than 200] × futureed [Finish Upper secondary] |
-11.87 | -59.27 – 35.53 | 0.623 |
|
books [11–25 books] × futureed [Finish Post-secondary, non-tertiary] |
-12.97 | -39.80 – 13.86 | 0.343 |
|
books [26–100 books] × futureed [Finish Post-secondary, non-tertiary] |
-18.36 | -45.14 – 8.43 | 0.179 |
|
books [101–200 books] × futureed [Finish Post-secondary, non-tertiary] |
9.44 | -22.27 – 41.14 | 0.559 |
|
books [More than 200] × futureed [Finish Post-secondary, non-tertiary] |
-7.49 | -45.33 – 30.35 | 0.698 |
|
books [11–25 books] × futureed [Finish Bachelor’s or equivalent] |
2.46 | -21.15 – 26.06 | 0.838 |
|
books [26–100 books] × futureed [Finish Bachelor’s or equivalent] |
0.84 | -22.74 – 24.41 | 0.944 |
|
books [101–200 books] × futureed [Finish Bachelor’s or equivalent] |
32.01 | 4.22 – 59.80 | 0.024 |
|
books [More than 200] × futureed [Finish Bachelor’s or equivalent] |
13.92 | -18.31 – 46.15 | 0.397 |
|
books [11–25 books] × futureed [Finish Postgraduate degree] |
10.76 | -19.89 – 41.42 | 0.491 |
|
books [26–100 books] × futureed [Finish Postgraduate degree] |
18.60 | -11.17 – 48.37 | 0.221 |
|
books [101–200 books] × futureed [Finish Postgraduate degree] |
41.34 | 8.08 – 74.60 | 0.015 |
|
books [More than 200] × futureed [Finish Postgraduate degree] |
40.36 | 3.46 – 77.25 | 0.032 |
| Observations | 4517 | ||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.204 / 0.196 | ||
The interaction effect is significant on several levels: 101–200 books at home and aspired to finish Bachelor’s or equivalent; 101–200 books at home and aspired to obtain Postgraduate degree; more than 200 books at home and aspired to obtain Postgraduate degree. Three out of four levels of the variable educational aspiration (base level excluded) were found to be statistically significant, while the variable indicating the number of books at home lost it statistical significance. The model is still better than no model at all and explains around 20% of the variance in the outcome variable.
We can also take a look at the interaction plot presented above. Predcited math scores of those with higher educational aspirations are always higher and the lines do not overlap. Predicted math score drops at the “More than 200 books at home” level for three out of five educational aspiration types: Upper secondary, Post-secondary but non-tertiary and Bachelor’s. For those aspired to obrain Postgraduate degree or only finish lower secondary education the predicted math score increases at that level of number of books compared to the previous one. Another pecularity in case of the “Finish lower secondary” aspiration level is that the predicted math score drops at the level of 101-200 books at home in comparison to the previous one unlike it happens in all four remaining aspiration levels. In general it can be seen that the increase in predicted math score on each level compared to the previous one is more steep for such high aspiration level as Postgraduate degee and it is the only level for which the predicted math achievement always increases.
Now we want to compare the model with and without interaction to check which one if better.
## Analysis of Variance Table
##
## Model 1: math ~ books + selftab + sharedtab + gender + country + edmother +
## edfather
## Model 2: math ~ books * futureed + selftab + sharedtab + gender + country +
## edmother + edfather
## Res.Df RSS Df Sum of Sq F Pr(>F)
## 1 4494 25028212
## 2 4474 22596800 20 2431412 24.07 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Since P-value is small (2.2e-16) we conclude that the additon of the interaction did improve the model and claim it to be our final one.
Model diagnostics
In model diagnostics, we can first check for outliers.
## No Studentized residuals with Bonferroni p < 0.05
## Largest |rstudent|:
## rstudent unadjusted p-value Bonferroni p
## 4173 -3.576513 0.00035189 NA
## 1712 4173
## 1615 3944
We observe that there is an outlier observation - 4173 (at the low left corner of the QQ Plot). We will have to check whether it is an influential outlier later on the diagnostic plots.
In order to check for multicollinearity we calculate variance inflation factors for all the variables.
## GVIF Df GVIF^(1/(2*Df))
## books 1.085381e+03 4 2.395785
## futureed 6.492610e+04 4 3.995328
## selftab 1.019190e+00 1 1.009549
## sharedtab 1.028435e+00 1 1.014118
## gender 1.053147e+00 1 1.026229
## country 1.018837e+00 1 1.009374
## edmother 4.139937e+00 7 1.106805
## edfather 3.571689e+00 7 1.095194
## books:futureed 3.172123e+07 16 1.715605
| Names | Raw | Squared |
|---|---|---|
| books | 2.395785 | 5.739784 |
| futureed | 3.995328 | 15.962644 |
| selftab | 1.009549 | 1.019190 |
| sharedtab | 1.014118 | 1.028435 |
| gender | 1.026229 | 1.053147 |
| country | 1.009375 | 1.018837 |
| edmother | 1.106805 | 1.225017 |
| edfather | 1.095194 | 1.199450 |
| books:futureed | 1.715604 | 2.943299 |
In order to make GVIF^(1/(2 X DF)) analogous to the standard VIF measure, we need to square it. As we observe some squared values of GVIF^(1/(2 X DF)) exceed the threshold of 5 (15.962644 and 5.739784) which is a problem and indicates multicillinearity. Meaning, some of our explanatory variables are highly linearly correlated and it might be hard to distinguish their individual effects on the outome variable.
We then proceed to check for heteroscedasticity of residuals.
## Non-constant Variance Score Test
## Variance formula: ~ fitted.values
## Chisquare = 18.10096, Df = 1, p = 2.095e-05
Unfortunately, p-value is statistically significant (2.095e-05<0.05) which is a sign of heteroscedasticity (the residuals don’t have a constant variance).
One of possible explanations for this is that, heteroscedasticity is quite a common phenomena in cross-sectional. Additionally, Russia is a relatively big country with quite different regions and while extremely high values of some variables can be observed in one area, the other area might have extremely low values of the same variables. We will also observe heteroscedasticity on the diagnostic plots in what follows.
The horizontal line on the “Residuals vs Fitted” graph seems to be quite straight, which is good since here we are checking the linearity.
On the second graph we observe the outliers we’ve already mentioned. Apart from those, the line is actually quite straight.
“Scale-Location” graph is used to check the homogeneity of variance of the residuals and the ideal case would be a horizontal line with points equally spread around it - that is not our case. The line on our plot seems to have a slightly negative slope.
There are no points on the Line of Cook’s distance which means there are no high influence outliers that should be deleted from the model.
EFA
We now proceed to the factor analysis and create a separate dataset out of the variables that we’ve already selected. We also rename the variables for easier interpretation.
## 'data.frame': 4517 obs. of 11 variables:
## $ selftab : Factor w/ 2 levels "Yes","No": 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 ...
## $ sharedtab: Factor w/ 2 levels "Yes","No": 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 ...
## $ desk : Factor w/ 2 levels "Yes","No": 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
## $ room : Factor w/ 2 levels "Yes","No": 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
## $ internet : Factor w/ 2 levels "Yes","No": 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
## $ phone : Factor w/ 2 levels "Yes","No": 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
## $ game : Factor w/ 2 levels "Yes","No": 1 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 ...
## $ music : Factor w/ 2 levels "Yes","No": 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 ...
## $ car : Factor w/ 2 levels "Yes","No": 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
## $ flat : Factor w/ 2 levels "Yes","No": 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 ...
## $ dish : Factor w/ 2 levels "Yes","No": 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 ...
As it can be seen, all variables in the dataset are factors. We first use hetcor() function that will calculate correlations between our variables taking into account their type and then present it in a form of a corrplot.
The corrplot does not look that promising: there are no clear highly correlated areas that we would hope to then see as factors. However, we can observe correlation between the variables “internet”, “phone” and two of the tablet variables and might suspect that they will load on the same factor.
We have to transform all our variables into numeric because we want to later use factor scores in the regression. In order to still note that our variables were not initially numeric we will use the cor=“mixed” specification. Prior to that the factor variables were also re-coded: initially the “No” response was coded as “2” and “Yes” was coded as “1”. For the sake of easier interpretation “No” was ascribed the value of 0, “Yes” - the value of 1.
## Parallel analysis suggests that the number of factors = 5 and the number of components = 4
We then build a screeplot to identify what a suggested number of factors would be. Since there are five trianges lying above the red line, we specify the number of factors equal to 5 in our first model.
No rotation, five factors
## Factor Analysis using method = minres
## Call: fa(r = datanum, nfactors = 5, rotate = "none", cor = "mixed")
## Standardized loadings (pattern matrix) based upon correlation matrix
## MR1 MR2 MR3 MR4 MR5 h2 u2 com
## selftab 0.56 -0.36 -0.09 -0.54 0.28 0.82 0.184 3.3
## sharedtab 0.24 0.54 -0.08 0.15 0.22 0.43 0.574 2.0
## desk 0.71 -0.38 -0.49 0.27 -0.18 1.00 0.005 2.9
## room 0.45 -0.31 -0.02 0.23 0.06 0.36 0.643 2.4
## internet 0.66 0.36 -0.19 -0.07 0.14 0.62 0.378 1.9
## phone 0.65 0.38 -0.12 -0.10 -0.13 0.60 0.395 1.8
## game 0.37 -0.06 0.35 -0.27 -0.18 0.37 0.629 3.3
## music 0.29 0.17 0.06 0.08 -0.17 0.15 0.849 2.7
## car 0.48 0.10 0.29 0.12 0.14 0.36 0.643 2.1
## flat 0.36 -0.23 0.41 0.34 0.27 0.53 0.468 4.4
## dish 0.54 0.01 0.38 -0.03 -0.30 0.52 0.477 2.4
##
## MR1 MR2 MR3 MR4 MR5
## SS loadings 2.80 1.03 0.82 0.66 0.44
## Proportion Var 0.25 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.04
## Cumulative Var 0.25 0.35 0.42 0.48 0.52
## Proportion Explained 0.49 0.18 0.14 0.12 0.08
## Cumulative Proportion 0.49 0.66 0.81 0.92 1.00
##
## Mean item complexity = 2.7
## Test of the hypothesis that 5 factors are sufficient.
##
## df null model = 55 with the objective function = 2.41 with Chi Square = 10886.92
## df of the model are 10 and the objective function was 0.03
##
## The root mean square of the residuals (RMSR) is 0.01
## The df corrected root mean square of the residuals is 0.03
##
## The harmonic n.obs is 4517 with the empirical chi square 69.41 with prob < 5.8e-11
## The total n.obs was 4517 with Likelihood Chi Square = 128.97 with prob < 7.6e-23
##
## Tucker Lewis Index of factoring reliability = 0.94
## RMSEA index = 0.051 and the 90 % confidence intervals are 0.044 0.059
## BIC = 44.81
## Fit based upon off diagonal values = 1
## Measures of factor score adequacy
## MR1 MR2 MR3 MR4 MR5
## Correlation of (regression) scores with factors 0.95 0.87 0.86 0.85 0.74
## Multiple R square of scores with factors 0.90 0.76 0.74 0.73 0.54
## Minimum correlation of possible factor scores 0.81 0.53 0.48 0.46 0.09
Let’s first assess the model fit by the produced output.
- Cumulative proportion of variance explained by all factors is equal to 0.52 which is relatively high.
- ‘Proportion Var’ values are equal to 0.25, 0.09, 0.07, 0.06 and 0.04 with all of them being bigger 0.1.
- We want the values of ‘Proportion Explained’ to be more or less similar. However, we observe that they range from 0.49 to 0.08 which is far from being ideal. Values for MR2 (0.18), MR3 (0.14), and MR4 (0.12) are actually quite similar and the problem is simply in the first factor having that high of a value (0.49).
- The root mean square of the residuals (RMSR) is 0.01 which is good since we want it to be closer to zero and at least less than 0.05.
- RMSEA index is equal to 0.051 which is, in fact, we good (<.08 acceptable, <.05 excellent).
- Tucker Lewis index of factoring reliability is equal to 0.94 which also makes it acceptable (>.90 acceptable, >.95 excellent).
In general, it seems like the fit of the model is quite good apart from one of the factors having a too high ‘proportion explained’ value. However, if we look at the plot we observe that there are multiple problems present: two of the factors have only one variable loaded on them, while two have none. The majority of variables are loaded on the first factor which can also be seen in the output. It’s quite natural to have such a bad picture since we haven’t performed the rotation yet.
Varimax rotation, five factors
While keeping the number of factors to 5 we proceed to perform the varimax (orthogonal) rotation which assumes that factors are not correlated. We suppose that after the rotation the indicators will load high on one factor and one factor only - we will basically try to maximize each indicator’s largest factor loading and minimize others.
## Factor Analysis using method = minres
## Call: fa(r = datanum, nfactors = 5, rotate = "varimax", cor = "mixed")
## Standardized loadings (pattern matrix) based upon correlation matrix
## MR2 MR1 MR3 MR4 MR5 h2 u2 com
## selftab 0.06 0.22 0.15 0.85 0.09 0.82 0.184 1.2
## sharedtab 0.63 -0.09 -0.06 -0.11 0.10 0.43 0.574 1.2
## desk 0.16 0.96 0.10 0.16 0.07 1.00 0.005 1.1
## room 0.02 0.46 0.09 0.12 0.35 0.36 0.643 2.1
## internet 0.70 0.21 0.17 0.24 0.05 0.62 0.378 1.6
## phone 0.62 0.23 0.38 0.13 -0.07 0.60 0.395 2.1
## game 0.00 -0.03 0.55 0.24 0.11 0.37 0.629 1.5
## music 0.23 0.12 0.27 -0.10 0.04 0.15 0.849 2.7
## car 0.29 0.05 0.28 0.08 0.42 0.36 0.643 2.7
## flat -0.01 0.12 0.13 0.03 0.71 0.53 0.468 1.1
## dish 0.12 0.14 0.67 0.04 0.21 0.52 0.477 1.4
##
## MR2 MR1 MR3 MR4 MR5
## SS loadings 1.45 1.35 1.13 0.93 0.89
## Proportion Var 0.13 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.08
## Cumulative Var 0.13 0.25 0.36 0.44 0.52
## Proportion Explained 0.25 0.23 0.20 0.16 0.15
## Cumulative Proportion 0.25 0.49 0.68 0.85 1.00
##
## Mean item complexity = 1.7
## Test of the hypothesis that 5 factors are sufficient.
##
## df null model = 55 with the objective function = 2.41 with Chi Square = 10886.92
## df of the model are 10 and the objective function was 0.03
##
## The root mean square of the residuals (RMSR) is 0.01
## The df corrected root mean square of the residuals is 0.03
##
## The harmonic n.obs is 4517 with the empirical chi square 69.41 with prob < 5.8e-11
## The total n.obs was 4517 with Likelihood Chi Square = 128.97 with prob < 7.6e-23
##
## Tucker Lewis Index of factoring reliability = 0.94
## RMSEA index = 0.051 and the 90 % confidence intervals are 0.044 0.059
## BIC = 44.81
## Fit based upon off diagonal values = 1
## Measures of factor score adequacy
## MR2 MR1 MR3 MR4 MR5
## Correlation of (regression) scores with factors 0.85 0.99 0.78 0.88 0.77
## Multiple R square of scores with factors 0.72 0.98 0.60 0.78 0.59
## Minimum correlation of possible factor scores 0.44 0.96 0.20 0.56 0.19
We observe how the values of “Proportion explained” changed: while they used to range from 0.49 to 0.08, they now range from 0.15 to 0.25 which is a lot better (MR2 now has to biggest value). We also observe how the plot changed: now all factors have at least one variables loaded on them, but only one of the factors have a sufficient number of variables loading on it equal to three. Changes are also apparent for the factor loadings: for instance, “selftab” that was previously loaded on the MR1 factor is now mainly loaded on MR4 with 0.85 factor loading, “sharedtab” that was initially loaded on the MR2 factor with 0.54 is now loaded on it with 0.63. Changes in other varaibles are also presented in the output.
Since varimax (orthogonal) rotation assumes that factors are not correlated, the correlations are not seen in the output.
Oblimin rotation, five factors
## Factor Analysis using method = minres
## Call: fa(r = datanum, nfactors = 5, rotate = "oblimin", cor = "mixed")
## Standardized loadings (pattern matrix) based upon correlation matrix
## MR2 MR1 MR3 MR4 MR5 h2 u2 com
## selftab 0.02 0.01 -0.01 0.90 0.01 0.82 0.184 1.0
## sharedtab 0.69 -0.12 -0.14 -0.12 0.10 0.43 0.574 1.3
## desk 0.01 1.00 -0.01 0.01 0.00 1.00 0.005 1.0
## room -0.05 0.43 0.01 0.07 0.32 0.36 0.643 1.9
## internet 0.68 0.11 0.03 0.19 -0.01 0.62 0.378 1.2
## phone 0.56 0.15 0.30 0.04 -0.16 0.60 0.395 1.9
## game -0.07 -0.14 0.56 0.20 0.02 0.37 0.629 1.4
## music 0.19 0.11 0.27 -0.17 -0.01 0.15 0.849 2.9
## car 0.28 -0.05 0.21 0.05 0.38 0.36 0.643 2.5
## flat -0.01 0.04 0.05 0.02 0.70 0.53 0.468 1.0
## dish 0.02 0.06 0.68 -0.06 0.11 0.52 0.477 1.1
##
## MR2 MR1 MR3 MR4 MR5
## SS loadings 1.45 1.33 1.14 0.98 0.85
## Proportion Var 0.13 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08
## Cumulative Var 0.13 0.25 0.36 0.45 0.52
## Proportion Explained 0.25 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.15
## Cumulative Proportion 0.25 0.48 0.68 0.85 1.00
##
## With factor correlations of
## MR2 MR1 MR3 MR4 MR5
## MR2 1.00 0.27 0.31 0.17 0.06
## MR1 0.27 1.00 0.27 0.40 0.17
## MR3 0.31 0.27 1.00 0.34 0.25
## MR4 0.17 0.40 0.34 1.00 0.12
## MR5 0.06 0.17 0.25 0.12 1.00
##
## Mean item complexity = 1.6
## Test of the hypothesis that 5 factors are sufficient.
##
## df null model = 55 with the objective function = 2.41 with Chi Square = 10886.92
## df of the model are 10 and the objective function was 0.03
##
## The root mean square of the residuals (RMSR) is 0.01
## The df corrected root mean square of the residuals is 0.03
##
## The harmonic n.obs is 4517 with the empirical chi square 69.41 with prob < 5.8e-11
## The total n.obs was 4517 with Likelihood Chi Square = 128.97 with prob < 7.6e-23
##
## Tucker Lewis Index of factoring reliability = 0.94
## RMSEA index = 0.051 and the 90 % confidence intervals are 0.044 0.059
## BIC = 44.81
## Fit based upon off diagonal values = 1
## Measures of factor score adequacy
## MR2 MR1 MR3 MR4 MR5
## Correlation of (regression) scores with factors 0.87 1.00 0.83 0.91 0.79
## Multiple R square of scores with factors 0.76 1.00 0.69 0.83 0.62
## Minimum correlation of possible factor scores 0.52 0.99 0.37 0.66 0.24
We then perform the “oblimin” rotation and immediately see the correlations between factors on the plot: MR1 and MR4 - 0.4, MR2 and MR3 - 0.3, MR3 and MR4 - 0.3. Since the results of the tests won’t change we have to look at the changes in SS loadings, proportion variance etc: however, the “Proportion Explained” values, in fact, almost didn’t change.
Since there is no significant improvement in comparison to the results of the varimax rotation, the second model appears to be preferable.
Varimax rotation, three factors
As we observed on the plots, the number of variables loaded on factors was not sufficient with only one factor having three variables loaded on it. In order to solve this problem we can reduce the number of factors. Since in case of the four factors some of them still have less than three variables loaded on them, we proceed to reduce the number of factors to three.
## Factor Analysis using method = minres
## Call: fa(r = datanum, nfactors = 3, rotate = "varimax", cor = "mixed")
## Standardized loadings (pattern matrix) based upon correlation matrix
## MR2 MR1 MR3 h2 u2 com
## selftab 0.13 0.40 0.25 0.24 0.76 1.9
## sharedtab 0.53 -0.10 -0.02 0.29 0.71 1.1
## desk 0.21 0.86 0.05 0.79 0.21 1.1
## room -0.01 0.56 0.23 0.37 0.63 1.3
## internet 0.73 0.28 0.14 0.64 0.36 1.4
## phone 0.68 0.23 0.23 0.57 0.43 1.5
## game 0.07 0.07 0.54 0.30 0.70 1.1
## music 0.26 0.06 0.19 0.11 0.89 2.0
## car 0.27 0.13 0.46 0.30 0.70 1.8
## flat -0.04 0.22 0.39 0.20 0.80 1.6
## dish 0.19 0.16 0.61 0.44 0.56 1.3
##
## MR2 MR1 MR3
## SS loadings 1.52 1.47 1.26
## Proportion Var 0.14 0.13 0.11
## Cumulative Var 0.14 0.27 0.39
## Proportion Explained 0.36 0.34 0.30
## Cumulative Proportion 0.36 0.70 1.00
##
## Mean item complexity = 1.5
## Test of the hypothesis that 3 factors are sufficient.
##
## df null model = 55 with the objective function = 2.41 with Chi Square = 10886.92
## df of the model are 25 and the objective function was 0.32
##
## The root mean square of the residuals (RMSR) is 0.05
## The df corrected root mean square of the residuals is 0.08
##
## The harmonic n.obs is 4517 with the empirical chi square 1370.03 with prob < 9.6e-274
## The total n.obs was 4517 with Likelihood Chi Square = 1421.89 with prob < 8.1e-285
##
## Tucker Lewis Index of factoring reliability = 0.716
## RMSEA index = 0.111 and the 90 % confidence intervals are 0.106 0.116
## BIC = 1211.5
## Fit based upon off diagonal values = 0.95
## Measures of factor score adequacy
## MR2 MR1 MR3
## Correlation of (regression) scores with factors 0.85 0.89 0.78
## Multiple R square of scores with factors 0.72 0.80 0.61
## Minimum correlation of possible factor scores 0.44 0.59 0.22
- The Cumulative proportion of variance explained by all factors dropped to 0.39.
- ‘Proportion Var’ values are equal to 0.14, 0.13 and 0.11 with all of them being bigger 0.1.
- The values of ‘Proportion Explained’ are quite similar and equal to 0.36, 0.34, 0.30.
- The root mean square of the residuals (RMSR) increased to 0.05 which is worse than it was previously since we want it to be closer to zero and at least less than 0.05.
- RMSEA index is equal to 0.111 and is now declared unacceptable.
- Tucker Lewis index of factoring reliability is equal to 0.716 which also makes it not acceptable.
The model fit according to the tests worsened. However, the plot now seems to be easier to interpret as it makes more sense.
EFA Final
Factor Interpretation
- MR1 - “Independance, personal space”
Such variables as “desk”, “room” and “selftab” are loaded on the first factor. One of the qualities that unites these variables and can be seen as a latent variable behind them is the independence of a child and personal space provided to him / her. It might be hypothesized that students that have higher ML1 factor scores and more personal space have higher math ahievement scores because they are not distracted by other family members and have more opportunity to concentrate on studying.
- MR2 - “Digital exposure”
“internet”, “phone” and “shared” variables loaded on the second factor that can be interpreted as the one’s level of “digital exposure”. While the presence of a personal use tablet indiates independance and is loaded on the first factor, the presence of shared tablet is loaded on the MR2 together with “phone” which is of personal use. This might seem a bit confusing, but we can hypothesize that in case of the presence of a shared tablet it’s not the “shared” quality of it that matters but the presence and access to the internet itself. Access to the internet is also loaded on this factor supporting this claim. The hypothesis can go both ways in the same way it did for the use of tablets: high “Digital exposure” factor scores might be associated with low math achievement scores because children lose their ability to concenrate and to memorize information; on the other hand, usage of the internet for educational purposes can contribute to the opposite effect.
- MR3 - “Wealth”
“dish”, “car” and “flat” variables are all, in fact, variables that were included in the dataset as indicators of wealth for Russia. Therefore, it would be natural to assume that the factor can be interpreted precisely as that. Interestingly, “game” variable is also loaded on this factor which shows that the possession of a gaming system can also be seen as an indicator of wealth. We can hypothesize that high factor “Wealth” scores are associated with higher math achievement scores because wealthy families can afford tutors and all the necessary studying materials.
Scales fit
We can now check the fit of all four scales.
##
## Reliability analysis
## Call: alpha(x = MR1, check.keys = TRUE)
##
## raw_alpha std.alpha G6(smc) average_r S/N ase mean sd median_r
## 0.38 0.41 0.32 0.19 0.68 0.015 0.81 0.25 0.18
##
## 95% confidence boundaries
## lower alpha upper
## Feldt 0.35 0.38 0.41
## Duhachek 0.35 0.38 0.41
##
## Reliability if an item is dropped:
## raw_alpha std.alpha G6(smc) average_r S/N alpha se var.r med.r
## desk 0.23 0.24 0.14 0.14 0.32 0.022 NA 0.14
## room 0.29 0.30 0.18 0.18 0.43 0.020 NA 0.18
## selftab 0.35 0.39 0.24 0.24 0.64 0.017 NA 0.24
##
## Item statistics
## n raw.r std.r r.cor r.drop mean sd
## desk 4517 0.60 0.70 0.44 0.28 0.92 0.28
## room 4517 0.78 0.68 0.39 0.24 0.68 0.47
## selftab 4517 0.63 0.65 0.31 0.19 0.85 0.36
##
## Non missing response frequency for each item
## 0 1 miss
## desk 0.08 0.92 0
## room 0.32 0.68 0
## selftab 0.15 0.85 0
##
## Reliability analysis
## Call: alpha(x = MR2, check.keys = TRUE)
##
## raw_alpha std.alpha G6(smc) average_r S/N ase mean sd median_r
## 0.26 0.35 0.27 0.15 0.53 0.016 0.93 0.16 0.14
##
## 95% confidence boundaries
## lower alpha upper
## Feldt 0.22 0.26 0.30
## Duhachek 0.23 0.26 0.29
##
## Reliability if an item is dropped:
## raw_alpha std.alpha G6(smc) average_r S/N alpha se var.r med.r
## internet 0.13 0.19 0.10 0.10 0.23 0.017 NA 0.10
## phone 0.20 0.24 0.14 0.14 0.32 0.019 NA 0.14
## sharedtab 0.34 0.35 0.21 0.21 0.54 0.019 NA 0.21
##
## Item statistics
## n raw.r std.r r.cor r.drop mean sd
## internet 4517 0.55 0.68 0.40 0.20 0.97 0.18
## phone 4517 0.45 0.67 0.36 0.18 0.98 0.14
## sharedtab 4517 0.86 0.63 0.26 0.16 0.84 0.37
##
## Non missing response frequency for each item
## 0 1 miss
## internet 0.03 0.97 0
## phone 0.02 0.98 0
## sharedtab 0.16 0.84 0
##
## Reliability analysis
## Call: alpha(x = MR3, check.keys = TRUE)
##
## raw_alpha std.alpha G6(smc) average_r S/N ase mean sd median_r
## 0.43 0.43 0.37 0.16 0.76 0.014 0.41 0.28 0.15
##
## 95% confidence boundaries
## lower alpha upper
## Feldt 0.4 0.43 0.45
## Duhachek 0.4 0.43 0.45
##
## Reliability if an item is dropped:
## raw_alpha std.alpha G6(smc) average_r S/N alpha se var.r med.r
## dish 0.33 0.33 0.25 0.14 0.50 0.017 0.0044 0.13
## game 0.38 0.38 0.30 0.17 0.62 0.016 0.0014 0.16
## car 0.33 0.35 0.27 0.15 0.53 0.017 0.0054 0.14
## flat 0.38 0.39 0.30 0.17 0.63 0.016 0.0023 0.16
##
## Item statistics
## n raw.r std.r r.cor r.drop mean sd
## dish 4517 0.59 0.63 0.41 0.27 0.21 0.40
## game 4517 0.58 0.59 0.34 0.21 0.26 0.44
## car 4517 0.63 0.62 0.39 0.26 0.68 0.47
## flat 4517 0.63 0.59 0.33 0.22 0.51 0.50
##
## Non missing response frequency for each item
## 0 1 miss
## dish 0.79 0.21 0
## game 0.74 0.26 0
## car 0.32 0.68 0
## flat 0.49 0.51 0
Unfortunately, for all three factors standartized alpha is lower than the 0.7 treshold (0.41, 0.35, 0.43) which indicates a bad scale reliability. Moreover, when the “reliability if an item is dropped” is checked, there are no variables by dropping which higher alpha values could be reached which means that we shouldn’t get rid of any of them. Most importantly, by dropping any of the variables it would be still impossible to exceed the 0.7 treshold.
Factor scores in regression
We proceed to add factor scores to the first dataset that contains variables for the linear regression.
Before we actually put the factor scores into the regression we can take a look at bivariate distributions of these factors and the outcome variables.
##
## Pearson's product-moment correlation
##
## data: data1$math and data1$MR1
## t = 2.2642, df = 4515, p-value = 0.02361
## alternative hypothesis: true correlation is not equal to 0
## 95 percent confidence interval:
## 0.004517573 0.062779082
## sample estimates:
## cor
## 0.03367694
##
## Pearson's product-moment correlation
##
## data: data1$math and data1$MR2
## t = 10.26, df = 4515, p-value < 2.2e-16
## alternative hypothesis: true correlation is not equal to 0
## 95 percent confidence interval:
## 0.1223145 0.1793144
## sample estimates:
## cor
## 0.1509399
##
## Pearson's product-moment correlation
##
## data: data1$math and data1$MR3
## t = 4.5041, df = 4515, p-value = 6.833e-06
## alternative hypothesis: true correlation is not equal to 0
## 95 percent confidence interval:
## 0.03779188 0.09585879
## sample estimates:
## cor
## 0.06688197
We observe a positive correlations between these variables in all three cases with the strongest one observed for the MR2 factor (0.15 > 0.07 > 0.03).
We then proceed to include the MR2 factor scores in the regression equation as an independent variable.
| math | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | p |
| (Intercept) | 487.57 | 431.30 – 543.84 | <0.001 |
| books [11–25 books] | 1.52 | -13.44 – 16.49 | 0.842 |
| books [26–100 books] | 7.31 | -8.14 – 22.76 | 0.353 |
| books [101–200 books] | -7.86 | -28.19 – 12.46 | 0.448 |
| books [More than 200] | -2.17 | -27.42 – 23.08 | 0.866 |
|
futureed [Finish Upper secondary] |
16.97 | -12.08 – 46.02 | 0.252 |
|
futureed [Finish Post-secondary, non-tertiary] |
47.98 | 23.79 – 72.18 | <0.001 |
|
futureed [Finish Bachelor’s or equivalent] |
55.45 | 33.92 – 76.97 | <0.001 |
|
futureed [Finish Postgraduate degree] |
55.22 | 27.53 – 82.90 | <0.001 |
| selftab [No] | 13.86 | 7.53 – 20.19 | <0.001 |
| MR3 | -1.04 | -3.72 – 1.64 | 0.447 |
| sharedtab [No] | -15.15 | -20.89 – -9.42 | <0.001 |
| gender [Boy] | 13.12 | 8.85 – 17.40 | <0.001 |
| country [No] | -3.03 | -14.75 – 8.68 | 0.612 |
|
edmother [Lower secondary] |
-5.25 | -60.26 – 49.76 | 0.852 |
|
edmother [Upper secondary] |
-8.38 | -63.50 – 46.73 | 0.766 |
|
edmother [Post-secondary, non-tertiary] |
7.86 | -47.31 – 63.02 | 0.780 |
|
edmother [Short-cycle tertiary] |
4.64 | -50.58 – 59.86 | 0.869 |
|
edmother [Bachelor’s or equivalent] |
4.61 | -50.43 – 59.66 | 0.869 |
|
edmother [Postgraduate degree] |
4.91 | -50.33 – 60.16 | 0.862 |
| edmother [Don’t know] | -3.36 | -58.52 – 51.80 | 0.905 |
|
edfather [Lower secondary] |
-13.72 | -44.51 – 17.07 | 0.382 |
|
edfather [Upper secondary] |
-9.27 | -40.14 – 21.59 | 0.556 |
|
edfather [Post-secondary, non-tertiary] |
-2.78 | -33.63 – 28.06 | 0.860 |
|
edfather [Short-cycle tertiary] |
-4.65 | -35.80 – 26.50 | 0.770 |
|
edfather [Bachelor’s or equivalent] |
1.17 | -29.70 – 32.05 | 0.941 |
|
edfather [Postgraduate degree] |
5.12 | -26.34 – 36.58 | 0.749 |
| edfather [Don’t know] | -6.20 | -36.81 – 24.42 | 0.692 |
|
books [11–25 books] × futureed [Finish Upper secondary] |
4.98 | -27.34 – 37.30 | 0.763 |
|
books [26–100 books] × futureed [Finish Upper secondary] |
-0.23 | -32.84 – 32.37 | 0.989 |
|
books [101–200 books] × futureed [Finish Upper secondary] |
22.77 | -16.47 – 62.02 | 0.255 |
|
books [More than 200] × futureed [Finish Upper secondary] |
-12.51 | -59.91 – 34.89 | 0.605 |
|
books [11–25 books] × futureed [Finish Post-secondary, non-tertiary] |
-13.78 | -40.62 – 13.07 | 0.314 |
|
books [26–100 books] × futureed [Finish Post-secondary, non-tertiary] |
-19.45 | -46.27 – 7.36 | 0.155 |
|
books [101–200 books] × futureed [Finish Post-secondary, non-tertiary] |
8.83 | -22.88 – 40.54 | 0.585 |
|
books [More than 200] × futureed [Finish Post-secondary, non-tertiary] |
-8.32 | -46.17 – 29.53 | 0.667 |
|
books [11–25 books] × futureed [Finish Bachelor’s or equivalent] |
2.49 | -21.12 – 26.10 | 0.836 |
|
books [26–100 books] × futureed [Finish Bachelor’s or equivalent] |
0.93 | -22.65 – 24.50 | 0.938 |
|
books [101–200 books] × futureed [Finish Bachelor’s or equivalent] |
31.96 | 4.17 – 59.75 | 0.024 |
|
books [More than 200] × futureed [Finish Bachelor’s or equivalent] |
14.12 | -18.11 – 46.35 | 0.390 |
|
books [11–25 books] × futureed [Finish Postgraduate degree] |
10.14 | -20.52 – 40.81 | 0.517 |
|
books [26–100 books] × futureed [Finish Postgraduate degree] |
17.89 | -11.90 – 47.67 | 0.239 |
|
books [101–200 books] × futureed [Finish Postgraduate degree] |
40.43 | 7.16 – 73.71 | 0.017 |
|
books [More than 200] × futureed [Finish Postgraduate degree] |
40.03 | 3.14 – 76.92 | 0.033 |
| selftab [No] × MR3 | 6.10 | -1.09 – 13.30 | 0.096 |
| Observations | 4517 | ||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.204 / 0.196 | ||
It appears to be the case that the interaction between the wealth factor and the variable indicating the presence of a personal tablet is statistically significant even though the MR3 variable itself is not. The model explains around 20% of the variable in the outcome variable and is better than no model at all (p-value: < 2.2e-16). In order to determine if the model with the MR3 variable is better of not we can carry out the ANOVA.
## Analysis of Variance Table
##
## Model 1: math ~ books * futureed + selftab + sharedtab + gender + country +
## edmother + edfather
## Model 2: math ~ books * futureed + selftab * MR3 + sharedtab + gender +
## country + edmother + edfather
## Res.Df RSS Df Sum of Sq F Pr(>F)
## 1 4474 22596800
## 2 4472 22582652 2 14148 1.4008 0.2465
Since the p-value isbigger than 0.05 we conclude that the addition of the MR3 variable didn’t significantly improve the model.
We can still look at the plot for the better understanding of the interaction effect. For the pink line of those who don’t have a personal tablet the line is going upwards: as the wealth of the family increases, the predicted math score increases as well. For the blue line (those who do have a tables) the trend is the opposite: the wealthier the family is the lower is the predicted math score. It can be hypothesized that if a child has a personal tablet, the wealthier the family is the more spoiled the child becomes and the more likely he or she is to spend time playing on the tablet instead of using it for studying. On the contrary, if a child does not have a personal tablet, the wealthier the family is the higher is the predicted math score: if a family is wealthy but does not buy a personal tablet for a child it might value education more and try to avoid contributing to the development of bad addictive gaming habits in their children.
Summary
The model based solely on the number of books at home performed better than the one based solely on the tablet-related predictors, but the addition of the latter predictors to the former model did significantly improve it. Therefore, the final model included both types of predictors.
The model that included the interaction between educational aspirations and the number of books at home was better than the one without it and the interaction was statistically significant. The final model explained around 20% of the variance.
There were three factors identified - “Digital exposure”, “Independence and personal space” and “Wealth”. The model fit was worse than that of a model with five factors, but the results were better in terms of the interpretation. None of the standardized alpha values exceeded 0.7 and couldn’t be improved if any of the variables were dropped.
The interaction effect of MR3 (Wealth) and presence of the personal tablet was significant, but the addition of this effect did not significantly improve the model.
In conclusion, we have observed that the model with both tablet-related predictors and the number of books at home performed better than the model based solely on the latter. Just as it was hypothesized, the predicted math scores increased with the increase in the number of books at home, decreased in presence of the personal tablet (most probably because kids are more likely to use it to play games and get distracted), increased in presence of the shared tablet (probably, because in this case the usage of the tablet is limited either by the purposes or by the time). The interaction between the number of books and educational aspirations was significant and proved that the predicted math scores were higher on all “books” variables levels for those who had higher aspirations. The addition of the interaction effect did significantly improve the model and was added to the final version of it. The addition of the factor scores of one of the three identifies factors did not significantly improve the model even though the interaction effect was statistically significant.
Sources
Enriquez, A. (2010). Enhancing Student Performance Using Tablet Computers. College Teaching, 58(3), 77-84.
Evans, M., Kelley, J., & Sikora, J. (2014). Scholarly Culture and Academic Performance in 42 Nations. Social Forces, 92, 1573-1605.
McEwen, N., & Dubé, A. K. (2015). Engaging or Distracting: Children’s Tablet Computer Use in Education. Journal of Educational Technology & Society, 18(4), 9-23.
TIMSS and PIRLS, International Study Center. Distribution of Mathematics Achievement URL: http://timssandpirls.bc.edu/timss2015/international-results/timss-2015/mathematics/student-achievement/