GE143 Science and Technology for Life

Session 1: A critical view of the future

Dr R Batzinger

Payap University

2023-08-15

1 A critical look at the future

Singularity University Mindset

  • embraces the future and its challenges by providing technology leaders a forum to explore the opportunities for making a better world for all. It creates a community of incredible individuals with a common interest in improving the lives of billions of people.

  • draws on behavioral science to create an approachable, repeatable innovation methodology to address human limitations related to changing mindsets and behavior.

1.1 The future is faster than you think

  • Computational abundance
  • Time abundance
  • Capital abundance
  • Demonetization of technology
  • Communication abundance
  • Increasing genius
  • Increasing lifespan

1.2 Study of the future

Requires understanding

  • the contributing factors: market need, economy, size of investment, etc
  • relevant data: understanding of the technology, size of market, rate of development
  • public opinion: the effects of fads, traditions, trends and mindsets
  • impact on other systems: killer apps, disruptive technologies, social upheaval

1.3 Successful technology

  • Addresses a felt needs
  • Requires a reasonable investment
  • Quickly moves from concept development to production of product
  • Results in a reasonable return on investment

2 Modern human progress:

GDP vs Life Expendancy

Gap Minder Animation

2.1 History of Life Expectancy

2.2 Life Expectancy changes with technology

3 Resistance to change

  • Fear of the unknown
  • Preferance for status quo
  • Inability to adapt
  • Investment in competing technology
  • Political or power threat

3.1 Famous prediction

Steam Locomotive The canal system in this country is being threatened by the spread of railroads. We must preserve our canals at all costs for the following rreasons. If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result. Captains, cooks, repairmen and lock keepers will all be left without jobs, not to mention the farmers now employed in growing hay for the horses. Railroad carriages are pulled at the enormous speed of 15 miles an hour by engines which roar and snort their way through the countryside, setting fire to crops, scaring the livestock, and frightening women and children. The Almighty certainly never intended that people should travel at such breakneck speed. Martin van Buren, 1829

3.2 Other Famous Predictions

  1. Flight is reserved for angels. To think anything else is blasphemy. Bishop Wright, 1870

  2. I think there is a world market for maybe five computers. Chairman of IBM,1943

  3. I believe this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before the decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to Earth. President Kennedy, 1961

  4. There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home. President of DEC Computers, 1977

3.3 Future Concept

The future of crusing

3.4 Group Feedback on Air Cruising

  1. Is this really the future of cruising?
  2. Would it be popular? Why or why not?
  3. Von Hindenberg has a similar idea in 1937, why did his idea fail?
  4. How is this idea different?
  5. How soon do you expect to see this appear in the skies?

4 Megatrends

  • Increase in global abundance
  • Accelerated demonetization and democratization
  • Everyone, everywhere is connected at gigabit speed
  • Everything, everywhere is being connected
  • You can know anything, anytime, anywhere
  • Autonomous personalized transport (fast and cheap)
  • Increaing human intelligence
  • Increasing human longevity “healthspan”
  • Capital abundance: access to capital everywhere
  • Globally abundant cheap renewable energy

4.1 Futuristic Mega Projects: Neom

Neom

4.2 Other Near Term Projections

  • Autonomous cars on the road - 2025
  • Man-computer interface -2025
  • Human mission to Mars - 2030
  • Eradication of Malaria - 2040
  • 3D Printing of Organs on demand - 2040
  • Zero population growth - 2050

4.3 Risk and Threats situations

  • Global warming and rising tides
  • Polution and environmental disasters
  • War in Ukraine
  • Global monetary crisis
  • Viral and biological threats
  • Cancel culture
  • Greed and Power politics
  • Incompetent or mediocre government
  • Bureaucracy or misdirected focus

4.4 Opposing views of the future

4.5 What determines the outcome?

  • Financial balance
  • Economic stability
  • Political stability
  • Power balance
  • Progress and vision

4.6 Homework Assignment 2

  • By Wednesday, 23 Aug:

    • Discuss the questions
    • Draft the responses
  • By Saturday night, 26 Aug (before midnight):

    • Edit the group response
    • Open the share permissions
    • Submit the URL
  • Share your group presentation in class: 28 Aug

Nobody remembers what happened yesterday.
And the things that will happen tomorrow?
Nobody’ll remember them either.
Don’t count on being remembered.

Ecc 1:11


The horse is prepared for the day of battle,
But the victory belongs to the Lord.

Prov 21:31