Replicating Evolutionary Origins of the Endowment effect
This paper summarizes the paper “Evolutionary Origins of the Endowment Effect: Evidence from Hunter-Gatherers” (Apicella et al., AER 2011) and recreate some of its findings. The intent is to replicate the results and interpret them in a similar fashion to the paper.
Big picture
This paper tries to answer the endowment effect in a secluded region in Tanzania with mostly egalitarian tribes; it tries to test whether there are different behaviors among individuals where trade is present and absent based on factors surrounding its environment.
As the paper stated, the Hazda are one of the last Hunter-Gatherer populations on the planet, basically, nomadic groups. They differ from market-based societies because individuals do not own property (or, hold whatever they can carry), and share the resources among the tribe.
The Hazda tribes were divided into two groups. One with a “Low Exposure,” which were tribes far away from the village of “Mangola” and the other were “High Exposure” tribes, which were groups closer to the village. The village is at the center of the experiment because market-based trade has been observed over the past few years as more Western tourists visit the region and engage in market-based interactions. Further, how the items given in the experiment, which were observed on whether the subjects would be more likely to trade or not, helped control for biases in one group versus the other and thus identify the randomization effect and conclude if there is, in fact, an endowment effect on either group.
Why did the authors use biscuits and lighters and their design?
It is possible that because one is a durable good, and the other is a consumable object (food), the attitudes toward such items would be different. In other words, subjects would value either goods equally or differently, and that also helped the bias of the experiment.
The results suggest that individuals closer to the village, or in this case, the “High Exposure” group, showed an endowment effect, while those with “Low exposure” showed no endowment effect (meaning they were relatively indifferent to trade). Hence, some of these results suggest that such behaviors could be driven by behaviors of those living closer to them—say, subjects that see other individuals trade would possibly behave in a similar way.
Similar to List (2003) paper, in which a group of experienced sports cards traders suggests the bias can be unlearned, and that subjects with different kinds of experience in trading will show bias. Therefore, sports card traders (or stock traders for that matter), could show a lower endowment effect as experience is gained. In this study, the experiment is run with individuals that have had little, if any, experience in these sorts of market-based behaviors.
However, the results suggest that the preferences are shaped by their surroundings. Hence, the factors are exogenous and cam therefore be assumed malleable.
The results are valuable in many ways, including the effect loss-aversion result when trade is introduced. Some assumptions can be made; when trade is a new concept, the endowment effect is larger, but as trade experience is gained, the endowment effect is less. But the results suggest that further work could be developed on the motivations for individuals to behave in what their environment around them does—say, what is common. This, I am sure, is the base for many marketers (at least now with more data available) to understand what certain individuals motivate them to own goods—say, purchase them—and what motivates them to not value them as much over time.
Replication
| campname | endowmentcondition | magnola_region | distance_to_mangola | lighter | trade | mangola_region |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Endadubu | 1 | 0 | 36.71541 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mayai | 1 | 0 | 77.83885 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mwashilatu | 2 | 0 | 81.75925 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Endadubu | 1 | 0 | 36.71541 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Endadubu | 1 | 0 | 36.71541 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mwashilatu | 2 | 0 | 81.75925 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Figure 2
The column magnola_region is the treatment condition. We
created a new column called magnola_region_cat, a
categorical variable, that takes the value High Exposure if
magnola_region == 1, otherwise Low Exposure.
Then we use converted the variable magnola_region_cat into
a factor variable. Factors are how categorical variables are represented
in R.
We then assign such variables into ‘levels’.
| Levels |
|---|
| High Exposure |
| Low Exposure |
For example, High Exposure is now the first level. That
means it will be drawn first when we re-create Figure 2. If we want to
perfectly re-create Figure 2, we need High Exposure to be
drawn second. So, we have to re-order the levels in the column.
| Levels |
|---|
| Low Exposure |
| High Exposure |
We then plot the categories with the error bar.
Figure 2b
Figure 2b shows the fraction of subjects that traded by camp and distance to the village Magnola. The scatter plot is distance on the x-axis and the mean of trade in the y-axis, and total trade as the magnitude shown by the size of the circle.
| campname | mean_trade | sum_trade | distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Endadubu | 0.5 | 16 | 36.7 |
| Mayai | 0.7 | 7 | 77.8 |
| Mizeu | 1 | 2 | 52.9 |
| Mkwajuni | 0.227 | 10 | 3.52 |
| Mwashilatu | 0.467 | 14 | 81.8 |
| Setako Chini | 0.562 | 9 | 42 |
| Shibibunga | 0.214 | 6 | 3.25 |
| Sonai | 0.35 | 7 | 4.44 |
Figure 3
We now combine both charts to see them side by side
Table 1
The main finding is that the High Exposure subjects are less likely to trade and thus exhibit endowment effects. This finding is seen in Table 1.
Table 1
##
## Call:
## lm(formula = trade ~ mangola_region_cat + distance_to_mangola +
## lighter + (lighter * distance_to_mangola), data = .)
##
## Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -0.6140 -0.2847 -0.2157 0.4732 0.7847
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) 0.496565 0.153222 3.241 0.00142 **
## mangola_region_catHigh Exposure -0.285900 0.145628 -1.963 0.05119 .
## distance_to_mangola 0.001437 0.002627 0.547 0.58508
## lighter 0.079017 0.098073 0.806 0.42150
## distance_to_mangola:lighter -0.002969 0.002272 -1.307 0.19293
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Residual standard error: 0.471 on 177 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared: 0.09322, Adjusted R-squared: 0.07273
## F-statistic: 4.549 on 4 and 177 DF, p-value: 0.001603
Notice how the coefficients above are the same as Table 1 Specification 5 but the standard errors are different. This is because the authors cluster the standard errors at the village level. Before we dive into clustering, we need to appreciate why we care about the standard errors.
The standard error is the estimate of the variance of a regression coefficient, and it plays a huge role in hypothesis testing. Recall that the null hypothesis test on any coefficient is that its expected value is zero (i.e., no or “null” effect of the variable on the outcome). The test statistic of the hypothesis test is thus distributed around zero, and the probability that we should observe our regression coefficient assuming the null hypothesis is true is the area underneath the curve above and below the test statistic. This probability is the p-value, and the p-value determines whether we reject or fail-to-reject the null hypothesis. So, if we have the wrong estimate of the standard error, we will make the wrong inference about our regression coefficient.
The t-stat is:
| t_stat |
|---|
| -1.9632 |
The P-Value is:
| P_Value |
|---|
| 0.0512 |
Individuals from the same tribe could show high degrees of correlation because behaviors among the group are very similar. To remove this potential bias—say, subjects make individual decisions based on what they think ‘the group’ would make—the leaders of this experiment clustered the standard errors by tribe.
The results are:
| Term | Estimate | Std. Error | t value | Pr(>|t|) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Intercept) | 0.497 | 0.153 | 3.241 | 0.001 |
| mangola_region_catHigh Exposure | -0.286 | 0.146 | -1.963 | 0.051 |
| distance_to_mangola | 0.001 | 0.003 | 0.547 | 0.585 |
| lighter | 0.079 | 0.098 | 0.806 | 0.421 |
| distance_to_mangola:lighter | -0.003 | 0.002 | -1.307 | 0.193 |
Now we cluster the errors.
| Term | Estimate | Std. Error | t value | Pr(>|t|) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Intercept) | 0.497 | 0.095 | 5.218 | 0.001 |
| mangola_region_catHigh Exposure | -0.286 | 0.082 | -3.477 | 0.010 |
| distance_to_mangola | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.926 | 0.385 |
| lighter | 0.079 | 0.086 | 0.920 | 0.388 |
| distance_to_mangola:lighter | -0.003 | 0.002 | -1.830 | 0.110 |
The standard errors changed, and thus the p-values. Coefficients remained the same.