Summary

After-holiday market shows a small recovery as seen in increase in port price. Benchmark QHD price rose by 25 yuan to 935 yuan per ton as of 20, Feb. 

Port inventory has been in decline for the fourth consecutive weeks following less transported volume from pit mines. Coal mines were under increased safety scrutiny from authorities after a series of accidents in 2023H2. State counsel released a note in early February, emphasizing the importance of coal mine production safety and aggravating the penalties for any wrongdoings. Market is now expecting a slower pace of production ramp-up in 2024H1.

On utility demand, Inventory and consumption data in holidays have not been released by CCTD yet but given warm weather in holidays, a lower daily consumption and increased stock level are expected.

On Non-utility demand, divergence was seen among different downstream sectors. Demand in chemical sector remained robust as methanol production reached historical highest level in terms of both regular and lunar seasonality. In contrast, construction demand continued to be weakened. Production in cement and crude steel was in the lower end of the seasonal trend.

Balance Sheet

Price

Production

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Import

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Freight Rate

Port Stock

Utility

Weather

Hydro

Non-Utility Consumption