Evaluation of the correlation between fertility rate and education

Applied Data Science in the Field of Macroeconomics

1 Introduction

The global population has experienced a steady and continuous increase over time. As of 2023, the world population has surpassed a significant milestone, reaching a magnitude of 8 billion individuals (Statista, 2023). This signifies a substantial expansion in population, with nearly a double rise observed in the span of the past four decades. Figure 1 shows the global population trend over the last 50 years. The exact numbers of population are find by scrolling along the plotline.

Figure 1: Population growth

Scholars and experts globally have expressed growing concern regarding the escalating number of global population. The upward trend of world population not only presents challenges in terms of adequate food supply but is also closely linked to issues of poverty and socioeconomic disparities. Particularly, nations in the Global South bear a disproportionate burden of these circumstances, experiencing limited access to opportunities and education, thereby making the difficult situations they experience even worse (Alkema et al., 2012, p. 815).

Considering the worldwide concerns about the continuous increase in the global population, it is clear that some countries are experiencing higher birth rates than others, contributing to the overall global challenge. Achieving lower fertility rates would lead to population stability and have positive effects on a global scale (D’Addio and A’Ercole, p.1) In addition, gender equality and the access to education throughout countries worldwide have to be improved, in particular in low-income countries in order to generate the individual lives of many girls. Sperling and Winthrop (2015) have called the contribution in girls’ education “the world’s best investment” (Evans and Yuan, 2022, p. 244). According to Somani (2017, p. 125), there have been global commitments and goals aimed at reducing gender disparities in education. However, despite these efforts, persistent inequalities in educational access and opportunities persist. Moreover, Paul (2019) highlights the detrimental consequences of limited education, particularly for girls, in the context of female child marriage in India. The research findings reveal a clear correlation between restricted educational access, specifically limited access to primary school education for girls, and a higher likelihood of early marriage. This issue is not only a matter of individual rights but also a violation of internationally recognized human rights principles, as outlined by the United Nations (1989). Therefore, addressing these educational disparities becomes crucial in order to safeguard the rights and well-being of girls and promote gender equality on a global scale (Paul, 2019, p. 16).

This term paper focuses on investigating the correlation between girls’ access to education in relation to enrolment in secondary level in school and the fertility rate on a global scale. The central research question addressed in this study is as follows:

To what extent does girls’ education impact the birth rate?

2 Research Methodology

The data for this study is sourced from the World Bank, which provides comprehensive information on world population, fertility rate, and female school enrolment at the secondary level. The fertility rate is defined as the average number of births per woman, while the education variable captures the enrolment of girls in secondary school, which includes those who transitioned from primary education. The data spans the period from 1970 to 2020, enabling an analysis of trends and patterns over time. Concerning non-available data in certain years in different variables, missing values were erased and not considered in the following evaluation in order to provide an accurate result of examination by only complete cases of values. A total number of 8353 observations in 7 variables, including country, year, iso2c, iso3c, world population, fertility rate, and female school enrollment at the secondary level. The evaluation and review of the hypothesis was performed with the statistics and analysis software R Studio.

3 Analysis

Prior to exploring into the analysis of the interplay between girls’ access to education and fertility rates, it is essential to conduct a comprehensive exploration of both variables. This initial exploration entails a detailed examination of the underlying dynamics and characteristics of each variable. This knowledge can help inform policies and interventions aimed at improving girls’ access to education and addressing fertility-related challenges. Taking a comprehensive approach allows us to consider the complex factors that influence education and fertility, ultimately leading to more effective strategies and solutions.

3.1 Evaluation of fertility rate

As seen above, the world population has increased immensely in the last 50 years. This observation raises the question of the underlying factors contributing to this significant decline. In order to evaluate the data adequately, firstly we will have a look at the detailed world map and certain areas according to the countries’ fertility rates. Figure 2 depicts a world map divided into different regions based on the corresponding birth rates of each country. The colour scale ranges from dark purple, representing countries with the lowest average number of children per woman, to yellow, indicating countries with the highest average number of children per woman, based on the executed data. This visualization provides a comprehensive overview of the global variation in birth rates and allows for easy identification of countries with different levels of fertility.

Figure 2: fertility rate world map

The coloured map reveals insights of the divergence between the Global North and the Global South. The terms “Global North” and “Global South” are used to describe the variant distribution between parts of the world according to socio-economic factors. The term “Global South” refers to parts of the world with unstable economically and politically factors, which generates challenges for the people according to various components. Poverty, less health care measurements and lower levels of education are main components of the socio-economic problems. Africa, Latin America and some parts of Asia belong to the so-called “Global South”. The “Global North” is described in the terms of more economically stable and industrialized regions, which have often a great access to important resources and education. North America, Europe and parts of East Asia belong to the so-called “Global North” (Confraria et al., 2017, p. 266).

By examining the world map, it is noticeable that the countries of the “Global North” obtain a lower number of births compared to the value of the countries of the “Global South”. The African countries reach the highest amounts of children per woman which appears to be in average around six to seven children. In comparison, the North American region, including the United States and Canada, attains levels lower two children per woman. Socio-economic factors play a crucial role in the observed differences of distribution. Alola et al. (2019, p. 708) indicate a decline in fertility rates in countries with higher access availability in stable economically and politically structures. Higher rates of births per woman also result in a more endangered environment for the birth giving woman. Furthermore, Kim (2023, p.2) emphasize the higher physically capability for educated woman to give birth compared to uneducated women. The awareness of those common factors also refer to a better birth control overall (Kim, 2023, p.1).

The fertility rate in countries of the Global South is higher than in countries of the Global North. Even if the divergence of the birth rate is obvious in the data, it is important to consult details. Over the course of the last five decades, a notable and persistent decline has been observed in the average number of children per woman in countries worldwide. This long-term trend reflects a substantial decrease in fertility rates, indicating a shift towards smaller family sizes. The declining trend suggests significant changes in societal, cultural, and economic factors that have influenced reproductive behavior and family planning choices. This demographic phenomenon holds significant implications for population dynamics, social structures, and policy considerations on a global scale. Figure 3 showcases a sample of five countries from the regions commonly referred to as the “Global South.” These regions encompass a diverse group of countries characterized by their shared socio-economic, political, and developmental challenges. The selection of Afghanistan, Ecuador, India, Senegal, and Tanzania in the sample aims to exemplify the prevailing trend observed across various regions. This selection allows for a more comprehensive understanding of the global nature of the declining fertility trend and its implications for population dynamics and demographic transitions.

Figure 3: Evaluation of specific countries

The graphical visualisation displays the four countries’ fertility rate from 1970 to 2020. All of the countries start with a high value of births per woman in 1970’s but also exhibit a substantial decline over the years. The process of reduction is valuable information in order to apply similar measurements on policy instruments and socio-economic factors to further regions.

By analyzing these specific countries, which represent distinct regions, we can gain insights into the common underlying factors driving the decline in fertility rates. This knowledge can inform policymakers, researchers, and global stakeholders in developing effective strategies and interventions to address the complex challenges associated with changing population dynamics in the Global South.

3.2 Evaluation of education of girls

Figure 4 illustrates the concrete upward progression of women’s educational access according to enrolment in secondary level in school over the past few decades. The connected scatter plot (figure 4) portrays the initial low levels of education observed in the 1970s, followed by a sustained and pronounced intensification of educational advancements over subsequent years. In the period of five years between 1980 and 1985, there is an observable decline educational access for girls which changed rapidly in the following years.

Figure 4: Education for girls, measured in school enrolment in secondary level

The pursuit of higher education among women is not only associated with increased personal autonomy, but also entails a heightened sense of accountability regarding contraceptive usage (Somani, 2017, p.125). Several factors play a crucial role in the importance for a further incline in girls’ education. It is apparent that the progress of a nation is directly linked to the treatment of girls and the promotion of their educational opportunities. Even if there is a noticeable increase in girls’ education worldwide, a gender discrepancy continues to exist (Somani, 2017, p.125).

Table 1: Benefits of Educating Girls; Source: Somani (2017)

For Themselves	For Families
Women’s earnings increase by 10% through additional year of schooling	A child of a literate mother is 50% more likely to live past 5 years of age
–	–
Girls with secondary schooling are 6 times less likely to marry as children	12.2 million children could avoid becoming stunted if their mothers had a secondary education

According to the Gender Parity Index (GPI) of Enrollment Rates by Income Groups (2014), 91% of low-imcome countries are still aiming to achieve gender equality in lower secondary education while high income countries miss ‘only’ 41% of partity in lower secondary education (Somani, 2017, p.128). A gap in education regarding gender inequality is obviously given. Girls’ access to education is often hindered by unequal opportunities in comparison to men, resulting in limited chances to build a fulfilling life for themselves, pursue careers, and achieve independence (Somani, 2017, p.128).

3.3 Evaluation of correlation

Subsequently, two scatter plots (figure 5 and 6) were generated to illustrate the relationship between the fertility rate and girls’ education. Upon closer analysis of the prior interactive scatter plot, interesting insights can be gleaned regarding the relationship between the two variables. The data points reveal a clear trend, indicating that regions with lower rates of secondary education tend to have higher fertility rates, while regions with higher levels of education exhibit lower birth rates. Additionally, as the plot unfolds over different years, shown through the points, a noticeable decline in overall fertility rates becomes apparent, as the data points gradually shift towards higher education levels. The gathered points are moving from high fertility rates to lower rates and additionally from lower educational access for girls to higher units.

Figure 5: Relationship between education and birth rate according to years

According to these observations, a second scatter plot with all data points is estimated which generates the clear impression of a negative correlation between education of girls and the fertility rate. In order to evaluate the data on a more significant level, a statistical review was considered to generate a clear evaluation of the relationship between educational availability and the birth rate.

Figure 6: Correlation fertility and education

4 Statistical Evaluation

4.1 Hypotheses

The following hypotheses are used in order to examine the relationship between educational access for women in school enrolment in secondary level with the provision of basic knowledge and the specific birth rate according to the displayed countries.

\(H_{0} =\) There is no significant correlation between educational access for girls and the fertility rate.

\(H_{1} =\) There is a significant correlation between educational access for girls and the fertility rate.

\[ y_{it} = \alpha_{i}\ + \beta* x_{it} + \epsilon_{it}\ \]

with \(y_{it}\): the observed fertility rate for one unit at time t,
\(x_{it}\): the education, girl’s enrolment in secondary level for one unit at t

It is used an estimation of linear regression panel data. A significance level of \(\alpha\ = 0.05\) was used to determine statistical significance.

4.2 Results

Subsequently, the following paragraphs present the outcomes of the panel data analysis conducted to investigate the relationship between girls’ educational access and the fertility rate. The regression model utilized in this study provides valuable insights into the potential influence of educational opportunities for girls on the overall fertility rate. Table 1 demonstrates the final regression with the independent variable “education” and the output of the estimation.

Output

	(1)
education_girls	-0.041***
	(0.000)
Num.Obs.	8353
R2	0.614
R2 Adj.	0.603
AIC	13516.8
BIC	13530.9
RMSE	0.54

The coefficient -0.041 explains the estimated effect of the independent variable “education” on the dependent variable “fertility rate”. The value -0.041 indicates that an increase in education by one unit is associated with an average decrease of 0.041 units in the birth rate. It exists a statistically significant effect described by the p-value < 0.001 indicated by three stars.

\[ y_{it} = \alpha_{i}\ + (-0.041)* x_{it} + \epsilon_{it}\ \] This result indicates a statistically significant relationship between “education” and “fertility rate”. The probability of this estimated coefficient appearing by chance is very low. It is important to note that the effect of “education” on the birth rate in this case is negative. This means that as education increases, there is a decrease in the birth rate. The strength of the effect is quantified by the coefficient value (-0.041).

According to the previous estimation, the null hypothesis is rejected, and the alternative hypothesis (H1) is accepted.

5 Discussion and Conclusion

Education is found to be a significant factor affecting the fertility rate and overall population dynamics. Countries with higher education levels, especially for women, tend to experience lower fertility rates. This highlights the importance of improving educational access, particularly in regions where it is limited, for national development and demographic trends.

The presented term paper provides insight findings concerning the education of girls and the fertility rate in regard to various countries worldwide. According to the visualised world map including the data of fertility rate, countries which are mainly affected by high fertility rates were determined. By specifying mainly countries of the Global South representing higher births per women (> 5), a sample of five countries were conducted to present the actual course in of birth rate in the last 50 years. Afghanistan, Ecuador, India, Senegal, and Tanzania were considered to observation after the indication of less access of education for girls in these countries which was estimated by the factor enrolment in secondary school. All of the countries display a clear downward trend over the past decades, whereby an interesting parallel trend is observed of India & Ecuador and Senegal & Tanzania, which graphs moving along parallelly. The birth rate occurs to start with seven children in average per woman in the 1970’s and declined to a lower level of circa two children per woman in average in the observed countries. Furthermore, the overall fertility rate in the global perspective was estimated and a clear upwards trend appears to exist. While the enrolment rate of girls in the secondary level used to be very low in the 1970’s the graphical description explicit a continuous incline for girls’ education which goes along with more opportunities for women, autonomy in decision-making and no control of men over women as well as less dependencies to their husband (Paul, 2019, p. 17). By analyzing scatterplots, a clear negative trend between girls’ education and the fertility rate is observed. This suggests that higher levels of education for girls are associated with lower fertility rates. The scatterplots provided valuable visual evidence of the inverse relationship between these variables, highlighting the significance of girls’ education in influencing fertility patterns.

In light of the regions characterized by low fertility rates and limited education levels, it is imperative to implement policy interventions that aim to enhance educational access. Addressing the Gender Parity Gap is crucial in empowering girls to become self-reliant women capable of leading secure and autonomous lives (Somani, 2017, p. 127). This encompasses not only their personal development but also their ability to assert their agency within marital relationships (Paul, 2019, p. 17).

The analysis presented in this study highlights the relationship between girls’ access to education and the birth rate. The findings reveal a statistically significant (p-value < 0.05) negative correlation, indicating that lower levels of education are associated with higher fertility rates. In simpler terms, as educational opportunities increase, there tends to be a decrease in the number of births. This relationship is quantified by a coefficient value of -0.041. Addressing the issue of educational access for girls in low-income countries becomes a crucial priority on a global scale. By improving educational opportunities for girls, not only their individual lives are enhanced and promote gender equality but also contribute to managing population growth and creating a better future for generations to come. Moving forward, it is essential for researchers to continue exploring the ongoing decline in fertility rates and the increasing educational opportunities for girls. However, it is equally important to focus on implementing effective policies and support systems to ensure that girls receive the necessary resources and assistance they need to succeed.

6 Bibliography

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Alola, A. A., Bekun, F. V., & Sarkodie, S. A. (2019). Dynamic impact of trade policy, economic growth, fertility rate, renewable and non-renewable energy consumption on ecological footprint in Europe. Science of the Total Environment, 685, 702–709. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.139

Confraria, H., Mira Godinho, M., & Wang, L. (2017). Determinants of citation impact: A comparative analysis of the Global South versus the Global North. Research Policy, 46(1), 265–279. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2016.11.004

D’addio, A., & D’ercole, M. (n.d.). Trends and Determinants of Fertility Rate: The role of policy.

Evans, D. K., & Yuan, F. (n.d.). What We Learn about Girls’ Education from Interventions That Do Not Focus on Girls. The World Bank Economic Review, 36(1), 244–267. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber

Kim, J. (2023). Female education and its impact on fertility. IZA World of Labor. https://doi.org/10.15185/izawol.228.v2

Mitra, S. (2019). Book review: Gene B. Sperling and Rebecca Winthrop, What Works in Girls’ Education: Evidence for the World’s Best Investment. Social Change, 49(3), 556–558. https://doi.org/10.1177/0049085719863903

Paul, P. (2019). Effects of education and poverty on the prevalence of girl child marriage in India: A district–level analysis. Children and Youth Services Review, 100, 16–21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.childyouth.2019.02.033

Somani, T. (2017). Importance of Educating Girls for the Overall Development of Society: A Global Perspective. Journal of Educational Research and Practice, 7(1). https://doi.org/10.5590/jerap.2017.07.1.10

Statista (2023): Weltbevölkerung von 1950 bis 2023. Online in https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1716/umfrage/entwicklung-der-weltbevoelkerung/#:~:text=Im%20Jahr%202023%20hat%20die,seit%201950%20mehr%20als%20verdreifacht.

World Bank (2023): Fertility rate, total (births per woman). Online in https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN

World Bank (2023): School enrollment, secondary, female (% gross). Online in https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.SEC.ENRR.FE

World Bank (2023): Population, total. Online in https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL