Department of Environmental Science, AUT

Quantiles and Probabilities: Prerequisites

Quantiles and Probabilities

Content you should have understood before watching this video:

  • Number 3, ‘Variation in Data’
  • Number 4, ‘Basic Statistical Metrics’
  • Number 5, ‘Standard Deviation and Standard Error’
  • Number 7, ‘Distributions’

The normal distribution

Quantiles and Probabilities

  • The standard deviation is symmetrical, both its tails extend infinitely

  • The two parameters are the mean and the standard deviation

  • The standard normal distribution has mean 0 and standard deviation 1

  • In R, you can create normally distributed random numbers using the function rnorm()

  • The normal distribution has superior importance! (Central Limit Theorem, assumptions of standard parametric tests)

From quartiles to quantiles

Quantiles and Probabilities

For a standard normal distribution:

Playing with a simple data set to compute probabilities and quantiles

Quantiles and Probabilities
  • Let’s retrieve a simple data set: values of body height together with sex (female/male)
  • How is the variable ‘body height’ distributed? (Histogram!)
  • How frequently do we expect a value of 150, 170, 190 or less to pop up for females/males?
  • To answer these questions, we approximate the distribution of female/male body height using the normal distribution!

Examples with human body height

Quantiles and Probabilities

Females: mean = 160 cm, sd = 6 cm, males: mean = 170 cm, sd = 7 cm

Examples with human body height

Quantiles and Probabilities

What is the probability of being shorter than 175 cm if you are a woman ?

pnorm(q = 175, mean = 160, sd = 6)
[1] 0.9937903

Examples with human body height

Quantiles and Probabilities

What is the maximum height for 95 % of the male population ?

qnorm(p = .95, mean = 170, sd = 7)
[1] 181.514

Tricky one:

Quantiles and Probabilities

Between what two values will we find 70% of mean woman body heights?

The most important in a nutshell

Distributions
  • We need to understand a probability density plot, have a sense for how rare/common an outcome is, given a certain mean and standard deviation
  • We need to know how to work out probabilites and quantiles using pnorm (p for probablity) and qnorm (q for quantile) given we face a normal distribution
  • pnorm and qnorm are the reciprocal functions
  • Be mindful of whether you are after the left or right tail under the curve
  • Make a sketch and shade the probability you are after, that will help!